Todays pivot at 6745, will that hold as support?

Happy New Year! Morning all, hope you had a good one. So close to the 6800 year end (not bad considering I had that level from about July even if I do say so myself!). US consumer confidence on Tuesday was much better than forecast which may result in a bullish reaction today as the FTSE was closed when that news came out.  Asia was weak last night however the FTSE has held up and we are looking at an open around 6762. I expect early January to remain bullish.

I expect that things will remain pretty subdued for the remainder of this week as lots of traders are still on holiday, though we look on track for a continued slow drift up.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks dropped, with a regional benchmark index retreating from a three-week high, after gauges of manufacturing in China declined, underscoring challenges for President Xi Jinping as he tries to sustain economic momentum while rolling out reforms.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slipped 0.5 percent to 465.67 as of 1:51 p.m. in Hong Kong, erasing gains of as much as 0.2 percent. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Global equities soared by more than $9 trillion in 2013 as central-bank stimulus helped the U.S. economy gain momentum and Europe recover from its longest recession.

“We’re seeing some profit-taking today following the recent rally,” Teresa Chow, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at RBC Investment (Asia) Ltd., which oversees $1.5 billion, said by telephone. “China’s reforms may bring short-term pain for the economy, but over the longer term we see a more positive story.”

China Manufacturing

China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51 for December, the National Bureau of Statistics and the nation’s logistics federation said yesterday. That trailed the median economist forecast of 51.2 and was a decline from November’s 51.4 reading.  “There’s a good long-term story for China with better quality economic growth, but the pains of the reform program are probably going to hold the markets back for the moment,” Gary Dugan, who helps oversee about $53.4 billion as the Singapore-based chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East at Coutts & Co., the wealth management unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, told Bloomberg TV. “People are looking for buying opportunities, but they do need a good story.”

S&P

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.4 percent on Dec. 31 in New York, ending the year at an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4 percent to a record.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

As per Tuesday, bulls need to take out the high from Monday at 6767 today, which looks distinctly likely as we are just testing that level as I write this. assuming they do then 6807 and 6934 are on the radar, though the latter will probably be later in January. Today’s pivot is 6745 so I expect that will act as support for any dips, as well as having the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6734, however, we may just climb from the off, especially if 6767 breaks. As a larger downside level if 6600 breaks at some point then that will invalidate the bullish rises for the time being.

With the S&P looking good for a rise to test the 1855 level then I expect that the FTSE will also follow suit with the rise today so as per earlier this week its better to be on the long side today rather than trying to short, “buy the dips”….. again, especially if the pivot at 6745 is seen.

181 Comments

  1. Hmmm not the start I was expecting today particularly as pre market we were pushing on. Our traders no doubt waiting to see what US does But following their rally last week it may be a fairly flat day.

  4. Dax has been going mental recently, a few hundred or even a couple of thousand off these levels would still be pretty bullish

    1. Appreciate that – just wondered what has caused it to lose 1.4% in the first hour of trading. Has there been any news out ? As posted it could be just low volume fluctuations. Wasnt expecting the FTSE to run out of steam quite so quickly so holding fire at the moment on changing my positions

  5. Shorted the Dax @9620 for a large stake have now half to lock in good profit will leave the other half with a 50 point stop trial.

  6. Didn’t,t see this coming this morning on the FTSEDAY , will hold on and see what transpires .

  7. Its looking bad today.
    Huge 80 point swing for the dax, and a 50 point swing for ftse, with no major news, and in one hour of trading.
    Doesnt look like a good day to trade.

  9. I suppose it’s only 0.5% down but not a pretty swing on my account! Hoping its low volume but I thought the same argument would have helped the ftse rally.

  15. No surprise on Dax dropping as it hit top of a daily chart. Just gutted it did it straight away on opening as I was still in bed 🙁

  19. this for me is like opening the bin lid and putting money into it then after bin colection going to scip searching for it

    1. nice one, my strategy is bearish, im scared to short due to macro data.
      but if i see 6734-6740 today im gonna short as well

  24. Is this fear I have just because we haven’t seen this level of drop for a while? Is this not the consolidation we need for the next leg up? I hope you are wrong mo as I can hold until 6650 then I am out. Eeek!!!

    1. I think that you’re right. A bit of consolidation is needed for the next leg up. I do think that in the next few weeks we will see 6900. Looking at the charts though it looks like a further drop may happen before we rise.

  29. Just timed a few scalps perfectly between 6717 and 6706 🙂 After losing quite a bit being long this morning 🙁

  30. Well done Mick. It was flying around for a few minutes then! Volatile. Is volume low today anyone? Well done to anyone who shorted earlier this week. I am holding this long as I feel it could swing back at any time

  34. not taking my own predicitons seriously enough……. had marked dax to short at 9620 on xmas eve……. dow short16749….. eur usd long 1.36800 ….. was long on ftse from new year eve looked at it this morn 6768 good prophet dax was rising to hit its top9630…… should have closed ftse for prophet ….and gone short on dax… spent all morn closing half my longs…..the way i see it at momentis dow has more to go but it depends on wether dax can recover at least half its losses before open on dow in order to add some spark to sitution…… meanwhile ftse hangs in ballance…… so my new year resoulition would have to be take my predict serrously……. always have the finger ready to take prophet GOOD LUCK

  35. My longs have been closed at 6753.7 on 31st..
    Looking through my strategy, ftse has become a market where im staying on sidelines for a clearer view.
    My strategy has become slightly bearish on it again (But macro-wise im not comfortable shorting).
    I am expecting a pull back to around 6550.
    If i see 6734-6745 today i might short 1 lot.

  38. I’m loving the optimism here! Think its a little too risky for me to be picking out shorts here.

    2. I may even take a stab at longing S&P, just dont have a single clue on how to trade that market (execution wise 🙁 )

  44. Expecting a consolidation today and in few days in preperation for nfp data to come through.
    Going to short at 6735-6740
    At this rate might even wait a bit longer

  45. A lot of short chat here after a small pull back. I admit to being rattled a few hours ago but are we not still in buy the dip mode?

  46. I think ultimately after such a great christmas run a small pullback was always on the cards. im only holding the short for a few days, still expecting a 6800 for the month.

    1. yes im trading the short for a small period only…im looking at 6900-7000 in Q1 before we see a big drop

  55. Closed short at 4 point loss.
    Not trading today.. not worth it.
    I have no position in market

  68. Would like to see a decent sell off in the US before we rally again, although 2nd Jan is statisitcally a bullish day I think.

  72. This is a good day to learn about trading discipline. Im sitting this one out. Closed ftse position.

  75. If anyone is interesting the same situation happened on OCT 13 where there was a gap down on the US indices and a drop on others like today, tbh good time to buy now IMO.

  78. Hi all,

    Stumbled across this site a few days ago and liking your chatter on these blog posts. I’ve been trading for 3 months and wanted to ask – are you all trading FTSE futures or individual stocks? I use Plus 500 at the minute. What do you guys use?

  88. I’m new here too. Been trading on Plus500 and been doing fairly well. (Maybe just beginners luck!?) I’d be interested to know what platforms you guys use.

  94. Hope the ftse hangs on here and doesn’t crumble with DAX.

    I use IG index and like the platform. Used Natwest/CMC years ago but not as good a system.

  98. There is definitely some strength in the FTSE. So far it has faired well considering the drops in all the others.

    This will be good levels to buy and hold until the end of the week. We haven’t seen the highs yet, so just keep buying the dips…

  101. Mo I just wish I came in today without a position then if be loving it but still holding my long from 6756. I have been pocketing profit from 6532 but still seeing a big negative and refusing to average down is bloody annoying particularly when I was so smug with myself at 7am! Market giving me a slap! Ha!

  102. Yup the market will do that.

    I am flat here so it can fall 200 for all I care.

    Best trading day of the year so far.

    hoho

  105. X2WLT, didnt you put a stop order on your position at 7?
    At least you could have had a break even.

  109. Jss, no as I expected it to come down a bit and trying to look longer term. the 15-20 stop seemed too tight.

      1. Senu, I arrived at that after doing tons of analysis of my trades.
        I also don”t enter the market before 0830 for the same reason.
        Sometimes it’s really hard to just sit & watch but I feel better when I stick to my rules, I’ve learned this the hard way I assure you.

  114. Here’s a very simple trading ‘system’:

    Draw lines at the high & lows of the Dax futures after 30 mins trading, and trade the break of the range.

    Perfect day for that today.

    2. WOW!! take it easy mate!! If you don’t like it don’t read it!!!….it was your decision to go long and the market turn against you so you shut the fxxx up or go somewhere else if you don’t like it!

  120. Hmmm – I was long in FTSE, have been for about 2 weeks and was expecting more of the same. Appreciate it is only 1 day of drops but I do wonder if we have seen the peak of the Santa rally and we are now in drop mode as we approach next Friday’s NFP. Closed my longs (unexpectedly) during the day – not short yet as I need a day to switch my mindset and convince myself this has really gone bearish.

    3. David, I think you’re right. Next week is typically the weakest market week of the year with Tuesday and Friday being particularly weak. Chances are, it’s all short from here for the next week or so.

      1. Ill want it to drop below 6700 before Ill consider shorting – though at the current decline it will be there this evening. I also dont think the FTSE can buck the Dow and Dax for much longer and these have dropped a bit further since the FTSE close at 430. I will go sleep on this and see what tomorrow brings. The hard lesson I have learnt is go with the price and volume action – everything else is just noise!

  121. Adam . I have no position today ?
    I just don’t need mo06 giving a running commentary on the obvious .
    But just for the record you shut the £&!? Up also you ignorant tw&t

    1. lol…..CLASSY!!…once again, you don’t need to keep coming back and reed the comments!!….its called freedom of expression

        1. Well James, I don’t recall calling anyone names on here…I shall presume you are the expert….but then, you don’t sound any different ten the two of us so welcome to the club you twat 🙂

  122. Lee equally today was statistically meant to be positive.

    Really surprised the Dow has continued to retreat. Sub 6700 looks certain tomorrow but I will not close my long yet.

  126. Shorts what are your targets? We are still above where we were on Christmas Eve so although a volatile day do you not think we are still bullish here?

    1. Hopefully 6650 then buy again. I do think it’s still bullish but am prepared to trade the noise in between. Not everyone’s cup of tea I know.

  127. Hi All
    (sorry for my English)
    I am doing project to school about trading. Could someone explain me what does it mean when somebody say is going short and long?

    Thank you.

    1. Hi lubosdesk,

      Once over you could only buy a share but today companies have set up where you can bet that a share will go up, or bet that a share will go down. The up is named long and the down is named short.
      for a more detailed info I would suggest you ask the question in google.

      GL with your project and DO NOT GET INTO SPREAD BETTING when you are older. 95% of people lose their money.

      🙂

  128. Just sold half of my long at a loss. No doubt we will fall a bit more this morning. It was looking like such a good bounce back during the night too!

  135. Is anyone going long at 6700 if we get there or is there firmer support lower? I’m still long at 50% stake now realised a loss this morning.

  139. No FTSe position at the moment, if the ftrs take out the low of 6645 then things might get interesting.

    Been a quiet week for me, only 12 trades and I may call it a day soon.

Comments are closed.