Slow rise today? Will we see 6800?

Good morning. We did in fact get the dip and rise yesterday, though it dipped a bit lower than the pivot in the end. Problem with low volume days is that they are a lot harder to call. We have the US consumer confidence figure out at 3pm today which is probably going to be fairly upbeat and that expectation was what saw the jump in the FTSE at the end of the day. So, this is the last day of trading in 2013, will we see 6800?

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks outside Japan rose, with a regional gauge extending gains into a third day as consumer and utilities companies advanced.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed 0.2 percent to 467.83 as of 1:01 p.m. in Hong Kong. Global equities soared by more than $9 trillion in 2013 as central bank stimulus helped the U.S. economy gain momentum and Europe recover from its longest-ever recession.

“Investors are finishing the year a lot more confident than they were at the start of it,” Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets Plc in Sydney, said by phone today. “ Given market moves this year we are now vulnerable to deeper corrections.”

China is scheduled to post its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for December tomorrow, with economists projecting a drop to 51.2 from 51.4 in November. Readings above 50 signal expansion. South Korea reports trade data tomorrow.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today after the index closed near an all-time high in New York yesterday, set for the biggest annual gain since 1997. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2 percent to a record. Trading volumes on both gauges were more than 35 percent below the 30-day average, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

We got a nice bounce from the lows yesterday so still bull pressure around which is good and should mean we have a fairly decent up day today. As mentioned above its US consumer confidence out later today at 3pm which should be good and push prices higher. S&P looks good for 1844 today. The FTSE needs to get above yesterday’s high at 6767 which would open up 6800 and 6833 (the top of the 2 Bianca channels).

Zooming out on the 30 minute chart shows a fairly decent channel, the bottom of which we are currently sat on at 6740 so if that holds then all being well we should be on for fairly optimistic day as per the arrow. Once again its going to be low volume though so we will probably see overreaction moves.

On that note, I wish you all a happy and prosperous New Year and here’s to a great 2014 trading together!

59 Comments

  1. Markets close at 12:30 so expect any positive follow through on confidence figures next year. The first trading day of the year is almost always positive since 2000 especially in the US.

  5. Anyone know when IG reopens for indices. The website says closed tomorrow and normal trading on 2nd but normal trading would normally be 11pm ish the night before. Is that what they mean ?

  6. No problem. Here is some more detailed analysis:-

    1984-2013 200-2013
    Positive Days % 63% 79%
    Average 17.99 37.34
    Median 5.00 65.90
    Largest Gain 129.56 129.56 02/01/2013 (Wed)
    Largest Loss -264.30 -264.30 04/01/2000 (Tues)

  8. Morning all, can anyone explain why the ftse figures on plus500 are lower than the real figures by about 50 points???
    Thanks in advance

  13. Gazza the quarterly futures contracts build in all of the divi adjustments. As the cash and futures get closer they come together. I always trade the quarterlies to avoid any issues with adjustments. There is a wider spread but I build that in and it does tend to stop over trading.

      1. No, flat here & will remain so until Thurs. Just watching..

        Not had a losing day in Dec & prefer to keep it that way…

        2. Wouldn’t short here either. I’m with you Mo….think we will rally into the close….looking to hit 6760 -6780.

  16. The most exciting thing for me today will be to update all my spreadsheets for the new month/year… sad that eh…

    1. Me too….haha….but the good thing is that at least we are updating our spreadsheets……another year done without too much damage……..it’s not about timing the market but the time in the market in this game.

      GLA

  21. Here’s an interesting factoid: Since 1st Jan 2013, the FTSE has never closed below the close of the end of Dec 2012…

    1. Thanks to all who helped me this year to minimize my losses and make some small profits. Especially starting with Nick, Jack Two, Ahwab, Javed, Hashmash, Al, X2WLT,Mo06 and everyone here. 🙂 Have unlimited fun tomorrow, drink less 😉

      1. No problem……..just glad I could help in whatever small way.

        Happy New Year to you and to everybody else here too.

    1. Yep…..but sometimes that isn’t entirely a bad thing…….I was hoping for 6760 but 15 points in the year is neither here or there really

    2. It is only till 12:30pm..Like on Christmas eve I bought a lot @ 12:30 and couldn’t sell it. Customer care confirmed that it was only upto 12:30. Luckily I sold in profit on Friday after deducting 3 days premium 🙁

  29. I’m long but had planned on closing out and rebooking for Thursday.

    So instead of ending 2013 with a decent profit I’m spending new year in limbo.

  30. I’m long but had planned on closing out and rebooking for Thursday.

    So instead of ending 2013 with a decent profit I’m spending new year in limbo.

    Happy, and profitable, new year year everybody.

  31. Happy new year all. Nick, great platform really useful to see support/resistances etc and great to hear other views on the market and trading decisions.

  34. Happy new year everyone. Ive only been on this forum for one month, but without this id probably be in loss without having insight of other traders
    Thanks everyone, and lets hope for another profitable year 😀

  36. 2014 will be shorting Dax & Dow starting jan 2nd these will be medium term… Both these indice are at nose bleed level both are in the major oversold!! Anyway these are my thoughts happy new year until 2014

  37. Should have a consolidation period on Dow and FTSE soon but Dow is only heading one way IMHO and that is up.

  39. does any one know if markets are open tonight at 11 o clock have short on austrilia markets that i didnt get closed yesterday……..happy new year all

  40. Looking at Dow/weekly, it seems to me that 2013 was marked by three stages. The first five months saw strong growth. The trend of the market was then flat for the next four months; June through September, but characterised by nervous fluctuation, while it gradually came to terms with the effects of ‘tapering’ being offset by a resumption of economic growth. The last three months of the year saw a much stronger performance as uncertainties cleared and economic perceptions improved.

    That at least gives us a basis for looking forward to sustained levels over the next quarter. The Dow/daily is currently pushing the top boundary of a rising ϵ-channel, but a spell in the upper track of this channel and the hitting of new highs (≈16750-17000, say), seem feasible.

    Little of the Dow’s bullishness has rubbed off on the FTSE 100 in the last year, especially in the last quarter. The FTSE 100 grew by 14.7% in 2013 as opposed to 26.6% and 29.8% for the Dow and S&P 500 respectively. Surely we deserve 7000 soon.

    Happy trading in 2014! 🙂

  41. Plus500 generally seems to close 30 minutes before it should on the shorter trading days. Great way to keep you in limbo over the New Year!

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