Support 6933, 6931, 6900, 6890, 6861 Resistance 6958, 6978, 6998

Good morning. Well, Thursday wasn’t quite as bearish as expected then, though Australia dropped off its highs so the FTSE may well follow suit shortly (albeit a small pull back). The big news for Friday is that Germany is expected to approve the new eurozone bail-out deal for Greece in a parliamentary vote but has warned that Athens will receive nothing unless it honours its commitments under the deal. Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, said he was “stunned” after his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, spoke again of a debt restructuring on Greek radio, and the Athens government indicated it would block plans to privatise strategic assets.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Japanese equity-index futures climbed as the dollar held gains versus major peers and emerging-market currency forwards slid, while Australian bonds paced declines in Treasuries. U.S. oil was below $50 a barrel.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures were bid up 0.3 percent in the Osaka pre-market as the dollar maintained Thursday’s 0.5 percent advance against the yen and traded near its strongest level since 2003 versus the euro. South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit forwards sank at least 0.8 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed by 8:44 a.m. in Tokyo, with oil in New York at $48.82 a barrel. Yields on Australian 10-year notes climbed six basis points, mirroring an increase in Treasury rates after a report on U.S. prices.

While data Thursday showed oil’s slump drove the broader U.S. consumer price index lower in January, investors seized on a bigger-than-forecast increase in core inflation amid speculation over the timing for rate rises. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled this week inflation and wage growth remain too low to warrant tightening policy. Core price growth expanded less than expected in Japan, a report Friday showed, and U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth may be revised down.

“The U.S. economy appears sound under the hood, with rising core inflation an indication that Fed fund hikes are a matter of when and not if,” Mark Smith, a senior economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. in Auckland, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “This keeps the Fed on track to commence its tightening cycle around the middle of the year.”

Dollar Strength
Nikkei 225 futures were bid at 18,850 in the pre-market, from 18,800 at their close in Japan Thursday. Contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were little changed at 18,865 following a 1.3 percent increase last session. Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier in January, trailing the 2.3 percent increase estimated by economists and slowing from 2.5 percent in December.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency versus 10 major peers, jumped 0.9 percent Thursday, the most since Feb. 6, as the greenback soared 1.5 percent against the euro. The yen was steady at 119.38 per dollar Friday, down 0.3 percent in the week and 1.6 percent in February.

One-month non-deliverable forwards on the won slipped 0.8 percent to 1,104.50 per dollar, while similar contracts on the ringgit sank 0.9 percent to 3.6140 and NDFs on Indonesia’s rupiah retreated 0.4 percent. The Chinese yuan dropped 0.2 percent in offshore trading to 6.2801 a dollar.

Oil Gyrations
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index extended its retreat from an almost seven-year high, falling 0.5 percent as energy producers dropped 0.8 percent. The nation’s 10-year bonds yielded 2.48 percent, with the notes falling for the first time in four days. Rates on similar maturity Treasuries climbed to 2.03 percent in New York.

WTI crude for April delivery gained back some ground in early trading, rising 1.4 percent after tumbling 5.5 percent on Thursday. WTI’s discount to Brent crude widened to the most in 13 months after report Wednesday showed U.S. crude supplies rose to 434.1 million barrels last week, the highest level in weekly estimates from the Energy Information Administration beginning in 1982.

Both grades sank about 50 percent in 2014 amid signs of a global glut in the commodity and as Saudi Arabia led a decision in November by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the group’s output.[Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Well it all looks pretty bullish really! The top of the 10 day Bianca is 6978 for today, with support at 6933 – if this lower level breaks then 6900 and 6890 are the next supports to look for, with good support showing on the daily chart at 6860 – 25ema here and the bottom of the 20 day Raff. Its dropped of its highs a little overnight, though yesterdays high at 6958 is resistance initially, with the 6978 above that. If it starts to outperform then the 20 day at 6998 is likely. Really for today I am thinking of trying a long at the daily pivot 6931, and see what it does, cut quickly if it breaks, then try again at the 6890.

141 Comments

  1. Yep thought yesterday there would be one last push then a few down section but everything is super bullish still the higher they go the harder they fall!!

  2. Here’s another proof that there’s no good shorting rising markets. You short, it goes down a bit and then up, you hope it will come back (sometimes you are lucky of course) but sometimes it goes to…. as you remember I shorted Dax yesterday 11285, I got out b/e but later I took another short, av £2 18302. That didn’t retrace to 18302 at all, the max it did: 18306.2 (1st time) and 18305 (2nd time). 2nd time I though to close at 18305 but I didn’t, I had 10 quid loss. So it went overnight.
    What it means overnight.
    1.If you got your stops you may lose if markets opens outside your stop.
    2.Market may open high and run high to anywhere as it’s all time high.
    3. Do you understand the pressure? Why do you need that? Market didn’t show any sign of reverse, retraces are not guaranteed to be big.
    What it did in the morning: IT BROKE THE TOP, the situation was getting very nasty, it got to 11354 (I was -52 points at one moment, this moment could have become worse…) Do you want to have such a loss? You think then, I want to have a win now at least 100 points (2:1). Do you have a guarantee or any set up you will get that?
    Overnight I completely forgot I still had my Dax short, for some reason I was sure I closed b/e, that’s very strange, your brain learns to cope with it.
    Well, basically I thought reasonable again. It broke the top, no good. It may break down or not and so I closed on support level 18306 in the morning. I don’t know where market will go from now on, I knew it MIGHT retrace to 18306 so I didn’t mess about. 10 quid loss, but again, it was 100 pound loss at some point.
    It looks like it’s pushing strongly from that area, that was a great long opp. Short SL and hear you go off support, at least there would be some reason for that.
    I am saying this to all the traders who short the tops and think it’s their strategy, it will fail one day.

        1. oh. ok. At that time I wouldn’t take short unless it was near a resistance. For DAX, it is a different story now. Europe bounced after dow opened, but keeping dow flat. Usually this will be strong .

          1. Interesting Jack but you missed one point…..Everyone can short the tops and one day it will get you, BUT only if you dont employ stops to protect your account.

          2. Hi Jack/Senu,

            We have all been there trying to guess the top and I agree with Jack that it will fail one time. If you play it with stops, I think you can get away with it but in that case its a must that you adhere to a strict Risk/Reward ratio.
            I have funded my account with a small capital, opened a trade short DAX 11343 with a 13 point stop just above day’s high. Now left it at breakeven. My target for this trade is 11233. It might get there or it might close break even. Reason for the trade, I saw a shooting star formation on the 1 hour. I don’t use any indicator but pure pattern recognition.

          3. That’s the point, there was no resistance as it was all time high, so I wouldn’t recommend shorting that. I tried and it wasn’t great attempt.
            Off resistance is a REASON. It makes sense.
            I see they are trying to break 305 fiercely. I shouldn’t have traded Dax as I’m not familiar with it.

  3. Is that the fourth or fifth attempt at getting through 60?
    Whichever, it’s making hard work of it.
    I’m working on the basis of 6920/6960 range for the time being.

      1. Not much really :).
        It’s about 50% retracement from 6886-6960 that’s about it.
        On my 2 hour chart 6920 will roughly correspond with an RSI of 40 (depending on how it gets there) which has held since the 6886 visit.
        Not so much a support level as a drying up of selling level.

        Good short at 59 mate, I had a brain freeze and missed it 🙁

    2. 6960/30 is range am looking at! Already short from 6959 limit 6930. Probably will try a small long from 6930/28 200EMA 30min chart, lets see.

    1. yesterday DOW broke down a key resistance so expecting more down side today, that should bring FTSE down with it. lets see. Either way, its going to be big movement if one these levels breaks.

  6. Tbh it was a silly punt.
    Ractus, agree, without stops you fail. However here you don’t know what stop to use as you don’t see any price above it to attach to.
    RJ, when it comes to shorting the tops a stop system doesn’t work for me as it seems they are deliberately trying to get them. It’s just more nerve wrecking situation.
    Well, at 11343 after open it’s not bad at all.
    Whatever “shooting star” you said allowed me not to close on the top at least. 🙂

    1. Decrease your stake so you can have a bigger stop, then you can increase your stake if the market is holding the level you entered the original position in. Only way to trade hi and lo in the Dax and Dow, unless you have very deep pockets and are happy to accept a big hit if you are wrong!!

    1. Trend line support at 33 with the lows on 25th and 26th. Last day of the month today – will there be any profit taking or will the big boys grind us higher?

  8. Guys – Classic Pattern

    1. on 60 mins chart – Draw line from 20th Feb – touching Lows of bars
    2. Same chart – Draw Horizontal Line touching 23 rd to Today

    Classic Up Triangle
    => Break is typically to the Up side.
    => Extent of move approx 80 ( so around 7040 )

    Hope this helps.

    2. Agree with you Paul – it’s perfectly possible and plausible. It can be argued that there is also an ascending triangle target of 7070. (Top of the triangle at 6890 – bottom of the triangle at 6718.) As everyone seems to be expecting a retrace of some sort it’s on these occasions that the surprise can be to the upside. (I still think it’s going to struggle to get past 6970-80 personally but I won’t be surprised if the market decides otherwise.)

  10. First trade closed out b/e. Another short on Dax 11346 – 13 point stop. I think, I have decided to give that 13 point to the market but I will have to back my thinking.

    1. Yeah, thanks for update. That’s the risk about it, when you short the tops it needs to come back to test again, otherwise how would they know that this is the end. sounds like a good idea off double top. almost a pity to miss out on a nice 40 point drop being booked? I think at 11.30 it was obvious it was over with this drop.

      1. Yeah, missed out twice on the 40 point drop and closed b/e. how to practice on running your winners may be not when I’m trading against the trend 🙂

  11. Dow 30mins. — Approx. flat trend for the past couple of days, holding its own around 18200. Seem to remember that last Sunday a now departed bear predicted 17700 by this evening. No comment. 😀

  19. I see some of you guys are correlating FTSE/DOW/DAX movements. Since the beginning of the year, they have been pretty dislocated from each other.
    DAX premium over FTSE has gone from 3200 straight to 4415, and DOW over FTSE from 11300 to 10300 (end jan) and back to 11300 again.
    Not much reliable cross referencing there really.

  22. Hi Darren — DAX 30mins. looks like a step function of late — a level period; 1½ days say, followed by a jump up. Right now, relatively flat since 16:30 yesterday. On the 4hr. chart, I think growth fundamentals look pretty good, and of course the QE bonanza starts in March. For the moment I’ll stick with a target of 11400.

    1. +1
      Wish I’d have listened about the 31 long, got it in my head that 20 was coming. Bad trading, I get tired and a bit ragged by the time Friday comes around.

  25. Guys – just a possibility to think about
    This break up may not quite occur today – Friday and all that !!
    Monday – quite a good possibility – and most probably – with a gap
    up – opening at 7040 !

    Ps – Jim – now look what you have done, you Pied Piper , I am under your spell

      1. If it does, Argyle will be mortgaging his £million flat for margin….
        Joking aside, the FTSE doesn’t leave gaps open for very long, I’d be looking to short that.

  27. Just closed last of the Weeks trade as was coming up to 16.00 cut off point and happy with £873 for the week…..
    Onwards and upwards next week hopefully…..

      1. Hi BB

        …. as I recall – Last Friday – one of the greatest prophesiers of all time went a little lower for close of Today….so I would (NOT) hold on to your Shorts

        Argyle says:
        February 22, 2015 at 6:02 pm

        I wouldn’t worry Darren. Monday will see a decline as will all indice. Next mover upper as they say on the floor is Yellen on Wednesday. Till then down they will go. No use for Dax but RBS looking at big fall on Monday, can see FTSE sub 6830 by Wednesday lunch. Then it’s over to Yellen to set the tune for rest of week.

        I predict Friday evening

        Dow 17700
        Dax 10900
        FTSE 6750

        1. Ha Ha, still think there will be profit taking galore. 6940 looks about right. Time will tell.

          1. And out at 6942. That’s me for the week. I think the Dow may drag this down much lower as well 6900 now possible once the US take profit as well.

    1. I went Short £101.99 /point no stop target 6750 by 8.59pm.
      Looking at buying a riverside apartment tommorow

        1. BB
          I went short at 6950 – waiting for 6750 – which will come at 8.59pm today as per the Great Predictor. I need it – to pay deposit for my apartment which is exactly £ 20398, so I will not be short changed for a measly £ 2000

          so there !!

  30. I’d be careful chasing longs. On the daily chart draw a line from the low 25 June 2013 and the low 16 Oct 2014. Put the parallel line on the 22 May 2013 high. The high today at 6970 has just touched the upper resistance line. Yes it can break through (and the consolidation beneath the line suggests that it could well do) but until price action confirms …

      1. I guess it depends which charts are used? On my MT4 charts (which misses out the trading between 21.00 and 08.00) it’s already pierced the upper trend line, so not sure how meaningful it is … but sometimes it works.

  34. Darren what are you going on about I got smoked… Look at my trade in January all post at entry points and sell points I let you do the mass and see how many points I gained and that just January. Senu yes mate have added 30% at 11400

  35. Senu it would need to hit 22000 on the Dax too blow my account and funds are not really that bad that I could not top up too 44000 don’t worry about my margin.

    2. I know that mate. but you people still think this will come down? May be 100 pts if any profit taking, but with QE coming up, it is more likely to move higher

    3. Can you imagine it gets to 11600 and sits there for months and months and months, a year goes, then second year goes, just imagine, and you are paying all those daily charges and what mostly annoying – they deduct divi….

      2. You’d say, it cannot happen. Just think, I had short 16885 (I will remember this price for the rest of my life) back in October I suppose. Can you imagine if I still held it? Yeah, I lost then, at some point gave up, but it still never came back to even break even.

  36. Biffens are you Dola? Senu I am more than happy too hold if I closed now with my other trade for February am still 125 points up… I see a few trader in October holding Ftse long at 6650 when market was nose diving at 6200 every trader trade a different way… All my trade are post at time of taking and when they are closed you can look though 2 years worth of post before I traded as luke then Nick change the lay out and I put down smoking aces all my trade are there too see….

    1. I am going to have nightmares…….sneezing away
      ……………………ar……arg……argy…..argyl…….argyle

      Going to take all my Argyle Socks to my local charity shop t’morow

  40. Now, look at Germany and you will know what I am saying. If I kept my 11302 short that’s where I would be now without a stop or stopped somewhere. This is shorting a strong rising trend for you. And nothing you can do.
    I cannot even contemplate where smokingaces is right now.

  41. Jack don’t worry about my trades am still well up infact 125 points…. Not all those trade were at my Max and it is not proffesional to say how much a point my max is but seeing as so many are interested in my trading £10 a point currently my dax was £10 a point from 11175 to 11400 at which point I have added 30% or £3 so now my total is £13 a point… If I closed now my ptofit feb would be £890… and I won’t tell Jan profits as I don’t want to get into my accounts but this was the most I have ever made in 1 months anyway thanks for caring Gl all

    1. Well, at least you are not £100 a point like Argyle. Haha
      By the way, I answered some more in the previous post, interested if you pay any daily charges and if they deduct divi on your account.

  42. Jack I trade with fxcm there is no divi or charges on the dax so can hold within reason for months with no charge… The other market that I like to trade is Australia 200 is great with support and resistance this as what has kept me going this month.. But there are divi and charges on this but never in more than 2 days on this index.

  43. Darren i try not too go above £10 a point on the dax but happy on ftse and aus200 too trade at £20 slower market than the dax

  44. Darren had shocked loads of traders too just big hedge funds taking the piss… And cheaper euro making foriegn investment look more appealing.

    1. Was tempted to hedge it this morning but did not as in the past it has always dropped away just after. Lol

  49. Haha same here thought shall I hedge and then again in the afternoon but when do that it go’s the other way.

  51. smokingaces, thanks for reply.
    It sounds you know what you are doing plus your margin allows you to follow your technique, no problem from me at all. It was interesting to know another strategies.
    I would not use it because of margin and pressure of going into a large minus. It just doesn’t suit me, but it is interesting to follow your outcome.

  53. Jack it not the best way too trade and I not happy with this position but that is only because of QE if that was a few months away then I would feel a lot more happy at the holding game… And it just suit me too trade this way. It’s all a learning lesson. In reality spead betting on the markets is a hard game and the stress you get from it is really not worth the hassle, if I knew 6 six ago what I knew know then I would not have got involved in it.

  57. Nick I’m long £9 ftse @ 6928 from last nights dip. Do u think it’s worth keeping hold of in ur opinion or getting out?? Please give me ur advice as don’t wanna sweat on this all weekend ????

  58. FTSE
    4 hrs — Momentum reduced in second half of this month but still positive — loss of gradient but no actual downturn yet. Status: wait. If ROC continues to recover, long likely and return to 6960+.
    10 mins — Status: wait. Probable support at 6920. Further recovery of ROC would produce long imminently. (Break above 6935 needed.)

    Status as per ProRealTime’s ROCnRoll indicator.
    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE%20100%20DFB_zps2x5wzvto.png

    2. Will do Senu. No doubt our belligerent bear is basking on a baked beach — it has got to be a bullish prognosis! 😀

  61. DAX Weekly — Overall, 2014 was pretty flat. But the last two months have seen an increase in the index of ≈ 1680 points; > 17%! Difficult territory for a fixated bear! I haven’t read much of the usual drivel, but I’d guess that this surge is down to anticipation of higher prices on the back of QE promise and Draghi’s effusiveness. I doubt if volatility prompted by the fear of QE being turned off will figure much in the short term; the programme is just beginning. I have drawn a σ-channel on the weekly chart from October 2014 and this suggests a central value for the DAX of around 12000 by the second half of next April. Status, on the basis of the latter timeframe, and as previously defined, is long from last November 17, when my own ROC indicator turned positive. Short term; next week, I expect the index to break above 11400 comfortably. This is just my view. I hope it won’t evoke too much bitterness! 😀

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/Germany%2030%20DFB_zpsxqkfv9so.png

  63. Does anyone know if SUNDAYy ftse100 is UP TO 6945 at moment on IG is what the normal ftse100 will roughly open on Monday is this used as a guideline l??

    1. Rog, don’t worry. China data is good and also rate cut. More chance for bullish Monday 🙂

  64. Sceptical Senu? Yes, I do mean this coming April (second half)! 🙂 I’ve had a look around and it seems I’m not alone in looking at around 12000 as a viable near-term target for the DAX. Of course, there’s no precedent for the stock-market effects of the €-zone QE tsunami which is about to hit, so to that extent we’re in uncharted waters. My extrapolation to ≈ 12000 assumes really that QE will supply an ongoing stimulus, supporting a robust growth profile in the near future. This amounts to a background expectation, which I shall weigh against analysis in close-up timeframes; 4hr, etc.

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/Germany%2030%20DFB_zpsmspw7i8e.png

  65. Short aux200 5975 set at stop at 6015…. 100% of my max for this indice. Now off to bed hopefully wake at 6 am with profit.

Comments are closed.