Support 6924, 6904, 6878 Resistance 6938, 6977, 6987

Good morning. 6920 held for a brief moment, but it dipped down to the lower support at 6905 in the end, which then saw a bit of a bounce. Breaking below that 6920 makes things look a little weaker for the short term. I think we might see the 20 day Bianca at 6878 today, as there was no clear direction yesterday. Yellen repeated in her second day of testimony to U.S. lawmakers that inflation and wage growth remain too low to warrant rate tightening at the Fed’s next meeting.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as consumer stocks and utilities declined and energy shares rallied after a surge in oil yesterday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained less than 0.1 percent to 146.25 as of 9:15 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure climbed to its highest level since Sept. 11 yesterday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated an increase in interest rates is unlikely before mid-year. Yellen repeated in her second day of testimony to U.S. lawmakers that inflation and wage growth remain too low to warrant rate tightening at the Fed’s next meeting.

“While fears of an earlier-than-expected hike in U.S. interest rates have been calmed, valuations in many markets are starting to look stretched,” Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone.

The regional benchmark index traded at 14.6 times estimated earnings at Wednesday’s close, the highest since March 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed after closing at a record high yesterday. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

Brent crude surged 5.1 percent in London on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia signaled stronger demand for oil, countering a rise in U.S. stockpiles.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today. The U.S. equity benchmark lost 0.1 percent yesterday, while the Nasdaq Composite Index halted its longest rally since 2009. Hewlett-Packard Co. tumbled the most in 18 months after saying earnings will be hurt by dollar gains, while Apple Inc. slid 2.6 percent.[Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

After yesterdays price action and the break with the 3rd test of the 10 day Bianca channel, I am feeling a bit bearish now, especially if 6904 breaks today, as then I expect we will test the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 6878 – a level that is likely to see a bounce. As with the 10 day channel test, 2 times it will bounce and then probably break through on the 3rd test. If this level holds on the first touch today then we could get a decent bounce back to 6938 and higher – the top of the Bianca channels are 6977/6987. 6886 is also the bottom of the 10 day Raff so couple of decent supports around this area. If the bulls do their thing today though, then they will need to break 6938, which will lead to the top of the Bianca’s – 6977 to start. Bit of a slow day yesterday so pausing for breath. Todays pivot is 6936 so I think an initial short here for a dip down to the 6878 level is worth a go.

115 Comments

  1. Morning all. Took a short at that failed mini double top @45, stop now at 52, looking for a test of 20.
    Won’t be posting much today, flying to the Caribbean with Mick Jagger in my private plane, Sky doesn’t work very well over the Atlantic.
    😉

          2. I did actually go long at 41 when the rsi dipped back to 60 @ 15.57 and came out at 48, but I wanted this to be real time trade/post and thought I’d posted it but I didn’t.

            Thanks to Nick for allowing me to clog up his page, but a couple of you guys have asked about my rsi system and this was it in action.
            On a 30 point range day I took 60 points with never more than a 6 point risk.
            Not doing the big I AM (had enough of that recently) but just showing that a limited risk strategy can work on a ranging day.

    1. Suspect it’s in reference to a certain Mr Argyle, who’s been trolling the feed for the past week with stories of wealth and granduer. All true, obviously 😉

  5. Morning all. I have been reading these post for a few weeks now, thought it was time I said hello and good luck to you all today 🙂 Millendollar

  8. Smoking. How you feeling about your Dax short at 175? I have been in and out a few times. Currently hold a medium short now at 223. Whats you thoughts…

  11. Not quite sure why this ridiculous concept of Plymouth has crept up. Still in Goa, but have a property in Plymouth, which is where I registered from. You can probably tell from name which club I am a director of. Still waiting for the fall on FTSE but rest assured I shall be laughing all the way to the bank.

    1. Every post on this site has the IP address logged. Using an IP location finder such as http://ipaddress.com/ip-lookup/ you can see the location of the computer/device where that post was made. For example, I know that you posted this message from an Orange mobile in London. If you look up my IP 65.48.243.90 then you will see I am in Barbados.

    2. That would mean you’re one of the following people:

      James Brent
      David Felwick
      Richard Holliday
      Peter Jones
      Colin Sexstone
      Martyn Starnes
      Tony Wrathall

      Let’s pretend you’re Richard Holliday-ing-in-Goa, shall we?

  12. Darren still holding have just looked now… Not that bothered still think this will be the last push before a small self off too 11000 maybe a little lower everything is really stretched on the dax so still confident.

  13. Whats all the fuss about IP addresses ?? You can put yourself anywhere in the World with a single click ??
    If the owner of the site checks where I am right now it will show London. In reality am 250 miles away although tha’ts purely because for trading I use an IP proxy and at moment am logged into a Platform

    From memory I could choose from around 85 locations in the UK and Europe

    1. Yes I know that, and all about VPNs etc. The point is that he said he was in Goa, made out he was in Goa, kept talking about Goa and was ridiculing everyone else. As not many VPN companies list Goa you can’t spoof the IP. Therefore you would have to actually be in Goa or nearby to have an IP that was vaguely Asia related. He isn’t.

    2. Anyway, this is getting annoying now and wasting my time. Post the drivel on III, twitter or other forums as is usually the case, not my site.

  16. Firstly Nick you are wrong.Secondly Benjiw your list of directors is wrong.Thirdly I will now leave this site for good. I am sure you will be pleased to hear that.

    4. One of the reasons I read this site is for the banter and the mix of trading opinions. Argyle has actually saved me quite a lot of $$$ with his views, Nick you should know better than to drive people off your site and perhaps should rise above the banter IMO 🙂

  19. My short order 18248.4 didn’t get triggered while I was away. Not sure, maybe I placed it too high, but it’s the top of the rising channel so I was hoping but it didn’t get there in the morning. Still hope for an almighty spike to test 18242.
    There’s still a worry it may go to 18278 but hope it will bounce off 18251 if it gets there.

  21. FTSE 1 hr — ROC just turned negative. Index below mid-channel and likely heading for lower bound ≈ 6910. Not too confusing I hope. 😀

  26. Fortunately i have played the Dax ok today……hardly underwater average 58……..seems to be on viagra

    Smoking 100+ under….whats your thoughts?

  29. Darren well that the way it is but like I said not that worried my opion has not changed since this morning … Not helping that the euro is getting smashed

    1. Well, that’s the third failed attempt at 58, but it’s got to go through sometime I suppose.
      I just took a little long at 42 but we are the mercy of the DOW out of hours really.
      Good luck.

  34. Not sure what’s caused all the ball busting buying in the dax… Euro making foriegn investers buy and Germany has got the test vote to help greece… Anyway tomorrow another day

  36. Right Senu!
    Jim says:
    February 15, 2015 at 12:17 pm
    . . . So I think an upward break is on the cards [FTSE] — in which case 6900 will give way, and new highs around 7000 will beckon.
    My guess is that Dow ⇒ 18250 and DAX ⇒ 11400.
    This seemed to be like a red rag to a now departed bear. 😀

  37. Darren also read a interesting article on the negative bonds in Germany yesterday a few country have been doing this in 2014 the negative bond was only 20 billion it’s now 2 trillion, this is all a gamble that they can sell within the 5 year deadline at a profit of not then there going to some rather large losses… Ecb has had this brought too there attention by some big finacial think tanks warning them that if this goe’s wrong then the crash could be devastating making all other crashes look like minor pull backs.

  38. Until yesterday 27% of Euro bonds were negative……yesterday Germany started selling 5yr bonds @ negative.08%

  39. Is crazy considering Draghi will start buy sovereign bonds next week to the tune of 60 billions euro’s per month. so that simply says they will lose money instantly……def something wrong with that.

  41. If they’re printing euros at this rate (which they will), they might as well write off a few billion for the Greeks . . . ?

  42. Jim the Greeks will never pay or be able too pay there debt… What did they learn from 2008 banking crash… Not a lot just credit is 3 times higher now with low interest rates and slowing growth. Maybe the bigger picture is they will scrap all debts world wide and start with a clean sheet lol

    1. I guess the ECB QE programme will simply result in about €1trn of €-zone government debt being shelved by ECB for good. Smoke and mirrors. 😀

  43. Yes Jim they will have problem paying it all back problem with eurozone they are controlled by different government no one sing from the same hym sheet… Qe had limited success In Britain and America so still can’t see how this will work in Europe funny things is they have not made any announcement to date how QE will work which is strange

    1. The declared aim is to stoke inflation, avoiding stagflation. The anticipated result is to put a fire under stock markets and bankers’ bonuses.

  46. If you ever get chance Google search rochchilds then you realise how corrupt the whole banking and stockmarket really is

  50. Yes Darren imho Dax is at least 1500 over valued… As for Dragia 6 years out on QE boat another banker that think we can buy there way out of trouble… At tax payers exspence

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