Support 6887, 6854, 6832, 6800, 6750 Resistance 6945, 6952, 6961, 6990, 7010, 7135

Good morning. Well the big news last Friday was the Greece deal, which saw markets rise, and futures continue that trend, breaking through the resistance levels. If the FTSE now closes above the 6930 area then we should be on for further rises and break through that 7000 level. It stalled a little at the all time high level around 6950, and has held up over the weekend in the absence of anything detrimental news wise. That said, its currently around the top of the Bianca channels for today…..spike up and then pull back a little for bear Monday, before the usual bull Tuesday? Needs to trigger some stops I would imagine though the Greek saga still has a bit to run….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks climbed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average building on a 15-year high, and gold held losses as investors await progress on Greece’s bailout extension agreed Feb. 20. Oil fell in New York.

The Nikkei 225 gained 0.8 percent by 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4 percent following a fifth straight weekly gain. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the U.S. gauge closed at a record. The euro was little changed, while gold traded at $1,202.41 an ounce following a 0.4 percent retreat Friday. Oil in New York dropped after sliding 4.6 percent last week.

The government in Athens has until the end of Monday to complete a list of policies in return for a four-month extension of bailout funds after talks concluded late on Feb. 20. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda addresses parliament after minutes of its January meeting were released. Officials in Kiev said pro-Russia rebels in Ukraine’s east continued to attack troops, while a bomb killed two people at a rally in the city of Kharkiv.

“It looks like Greek debt negotiations will continue to hold sway over coming months with the four-month extension only granting a small window of reprieve.” Con Williams and Sam Tuck, analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today. “The continued geopolitical ructions with Russia over the Ukraine, as well as the unrest in the Middle East means there are many issues that will continue to hold sway in political discussions, distracting politicians from economic policy.”

Japan Stocks
The euro weakened 0.1 percent to $1.1365. The Greek reform measures are still subject to validation by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the institutions collectively known as the troika which Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras vowed not to recognize.

Japan’s Topix index increased 0.7 percent and is heading for its highest close since December 2007. The broadest measure of equities soared 17 percent since Oct. 31, when the Bank of Japan pledged to triple its share purchases and the $1.1 trillion public pension fund doubled its allocation to local stocks. Smaller companies haven’t fared so well, with a gauge of startups adding 0.3 percent in the period.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.2 percent higher, with eight of 10 industry groups advancing. Energy shares were among the only companies to fall as oil extended its declines.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for April delivery traded 0.6 percent lower at $50.50 a barrel. U.S. oil stockpiles rose to a fresh record in the week through Feb. 13. That’s coinciding with calls by the United Steelworkers, which represents 30,000 U.S. oil workers, for four more plants to join the biggest strike since 1980 as talks dragged on with Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Oman Production
Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of OPEC, is boosting crude output to as much as possible with the global price rout over, said Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary of the oil and gas ministry.

Norway’s krone retreated 0.4 percent, tracking lower oil prices. Rising supply from the U.S. to Russia is contributing to a worldwide crude surplus that Oman estimates at 1 million barrels a day. Brent crude futures have climbed 5 percent this year to $60.22 a barrel after falling 48 percent last year.

Gold for immediate delivery fell for a fourth straight week, the longest such streak since September 2013. The net-long position in gold tumbled 18 percent to 110,164 futures and options contracts in the week ended Feb. 17, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.[Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

After Fridays rise, and still some details to be thrashed out for the 4 month debt extension, I think we may see an initial dip off the top of the Bianca channel areas. Support initially if so is at the pivot 6930, with the bottom of the 10 day Bianca below that at 6887. If the bears do manage to get some momentum then I think we will see dip to the 6858 area, where I would expect a bounce. If this level breaks then 6800 beckons, with a pause around 6832 where we have the 20 day Bianca channel bottom. Will the bears be that powerful today though? On the upside, if the top of the Bianca channels break then I expect a rise towards 6960 (top of that 30min PRT channel) with 6990 resistance above that, then the top of the 2 Raffs at 7020ish. Short from here if seen could be good for a slight dip.

68 Comments

  2. Hi Darren, I managed to catch the drop this morning only a small stake. But well in profit and deciding how close to keep the stop loss. Any advice?

    1. I’d go slightly above the resistance level of 6900. If that breaks then we could be on for a record breaking day, if not then it might be a long way down.

  3. I have absolutely no idea which way to trade today. Historically it’s at the top and a short is a good option, but most other world indices are at all-time highs and Greece is a little quiet today. Not sure which way to play it.

  4. Congrats to JIM and o#all the other bulls on friday, decision was always going to push markets up. Personally I use IG % of shorts which being high is always a deterrent not to short.
    Anyone got any FX going on? Can`t mess with indices at the moment when we are at record levels…

    1. Thanks Ahwab — % of IG FTSE shorts is well down now after Friday’s surge — I guess a fair proportion were taken out. Expecting EURGBP and EURUSD to fall further — don’t have positions right now though.

  5. I’m just selling a little every time the 3min 10 period RSI sticks its head above 50 and taking a few points. Will only look at the long side on a concerted move and consolidation above 60, which probably will be around 6900.
    Tedious morning.

      1. Quite possible, looks as the price consolidates around 80 level atm. however I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of false break out down, 14.30 is not far away. so I’ll wait for now.

    1. Looking a bit better on 3 and 10 min for me, support at 45 (10 period rsi). Still neutral longer time frames.
      I don’t think it going to roar up, but may have seen the lows for today.

        1. Dunno its all starting to look a bit turbulent at the minute staying out, watching the Dax at min, looks like its on the edge

          2. If the DOW can get its arse in gear to 18100+ we could have a bit of a run up towards our close, but I’m not putting my shirt on it 🙂

  9. Lord Rastus here…….Assume everyone is Short Currently ??……..looking at 6800 by end of play tomorrow pretty much nailed on…….Dont go Long Guys

    1. How did you come to that conclusion? Only MACD 1h/2h/4hr looks anywhere near convincing, but still cautious. Much rather ride the slide than put in positions now where there is no direction…

  11. Yes Rastus with you on that. Easy money at the moment, like having your own ATM. Unbelievably there are people going long on here and worse people advocating it. They should be banned for such poor advice. Free speech I suppose.

        1. So you`re scalping fair enough. Ftse has been an `ATM` Though you can`t tell me that last week you weren`t saying all indices inc DAX/DOW was worth the short. Those jumps on Friday were just shorts getting hit.
          Like you i think we will see the drop sometime before May before the bullish run to the election and the 7000 mark.

    1. I cant believe you asked that question, Coonbsy. Anyone with half a brain knows its going well down. The question should be. When?

  13. Argyle
    Not sure whether you remember me. I used to work for you in Sydney for your boiler scam racket. Got 3 years if i remember correctly and got deported. I see you still spinning the same ” used to work in Sydney Stock exchange ” . So what you up to now …….still spinning . Leave these guys to trade rather than giving your usual ” I know all ” bullshit

  14. Argyle
    Not sure whether you remember me. I used to work for you in Sydney for your boiler scam racket. Got 3 years if i remember correctly and got deported. I see you still spinning the same ” used to work in Sydney Stock exchange ” . So what you up to now …….still spinning .

  15. Argyle

    Not sure whether you remember me. I used to work for you in Sydney for your boiler scam racket. Got 3 years if i remember correctly and got deported. I see you still spinning the same ” used to work in Sydney Stock exchange ” . So what you up to now …….still spinning .

    2. Hi Ken, Of course I remember you. How’s your lady. She was hot.

      Currently back in London. Got an apartment over looking the Thames, cost £900k but who cares. Not working at moment mate, don’t need to. What about you. You still after dinner speaking with Nick?

      1. But spend your free time trolling on this forum…okay with that money I would be doing things elsewhere tbh…

        1. How is Argyle trolling as such ?? All I’ve seen is him advocating Shorting at the moment…….?? If thats trolling carry on as I’m well up !!

        2. Ahwab. I am currently in Goa. Found this forum and could not believe some of the terrible advice given by some users on here. I think you will find that I do not troll, but challenge people who don’t have a clue from giving bad advice. Jim and Jack spring to mind. I was unaware that only poor people were allowed to comment.

      2. Your grammar is awful, Argyle. How did you manage fill in the mortgage application for your make-believe flat?

          1. Make-believe cash I hope for a make-believe flat? I certainly hope no make-believe squatters find your make-believe flat whilst you’re in Goa. That would be terrible 😉

      1. Ken probably earnt £3 million Aussie Dollars with me. I am confident he probably does.

        Anyway back to business £100 short from 6911.

  16. Ken Hepton there’s a name from the past !! I thought you were webbed up with Rothchild Assurance these days…..??

  17. Anyway guys, thanks for the banter. Past midnight here, so time for bed. Keep an eye on my short and remember, short any rise in the FTSE. If you do, you will be able to afford to join me out here.

  22. Looks like all traders are squatting at Argyle’s riverside apartment while he’s away in make believe Goa with his sidekick Rastus

  23. Losers in life tend to over-compensate for their inadequacies, ending up aggressive in a strange world of their own fantasy. Best ignored. 😀

  24. Hi guys missed all the fun here today… Well hate to say it but if you would have followed Argyle you be quids in. Still have a Dax short average sell 11120 still holding as want at least a test of 11000.

  27. Hi Darren should nick a few points on that… I am in it for the longer haul reckon we will get a test of 11000 this week but at the moment dax is one of the strongest indice

  28. Well im expecting a climb down by greece tomorrow ao looking to get out before thats announced. Thus only small for now. But i do agree a test of 11000 is needed before the qe pump

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