Support 6902, 6886, 6851, 6805 Resistance 6916, 6954, 6960, 6990, 7012, 7032

Good morning. Well we got the dip from the 6960 area (6958 on the spike up) and dropped all morning to the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6887, however, the bulls were battle wary and the rise didn’t really materialise from there, though it is hovering above 6900. Bottom of the 10 day Bianca is 6902 so will be interesting to see if this level holds during todays session, if not then a test of 6851 is likely. Few want to commit to longs (not surprisingly) when we are at record highs, and waiting to see how Greece plays out.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Japanese equity-index futures signaled the Nikkei 225 Stock Average may extend its longest rising streak this year, with Greece’s creditors reviewing a list of debt-reduction policies and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to address lawmakers. U.S. oil traded below $50 a barrel.

Contracts on the Nikkei 225 were bid 0.2 percent higher by 8:08 a.m. in Tokyo, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the U.S. gauge finished less than 0.1 percent from a record. The euro was steady after slipping 0.4 percent yesterday. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $49.58 a barrel.

Greece presented creditors with a list of policies to implement a Feb. 20 deal for continued funding. An official said the list would be presented to euro-area members for discussion Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses Congress in two days of testimony starting Tuesday, with investors watching for clues on the timing of an interest-rate increase.

“Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony is likely to reveal little new information about monetary policy as the political theater focuses on political agendas,” BNP Paribas analysts led by Paul Mortimer-Lee wrote in a note today. Regarding Greece’s proposals “there is a marginal risk of some controversy over whether the list is ‘‘sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point’’ — as the eurogroup would have it — for completing the current bailout.”

The euro was at $1.1339 today. Approval of the Greek plans would offer a four-month reprieve for the country. At the same time, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras must try to avoid defections within his anti-austerity Syriza party after it won power on pledges to take back control of Greece’s finances.

Under Review
The measures are first subject to validation by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the institutions that were known as the troika and from which Tsipras told voters Greece would break free. A draft was under discussion Monday evening, an official from the institutions said. The person asked not to be named because the deliberations are private.

Italian and Spanish securities surged yesterday, and Portuguese 10-year yields touched a record low, as the accord avoided a cash crunch that threatened to push Greece out of the currency bloc.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced for a fifth day to extend the highest level since 2007. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index surpassed a record close in intraday trading before closing little changed as lower-than-projected profit at HSBC Holdings Plc pushed the stock lower. Greece’s ASE Index slipped 4.5 percent last week. The market was closed on Monday for a holiday.

S&P 500
Six of the 10 main S&P 500 groups retreated yesterday, with phone shares losing 0.6 percent to lead declines. U.S. stocks posted their longest streak of weekly gains since the beginning of December as Greece reached a deal on Feb. 20 to extend its bailout program and investors speculated the Fed will keep rates lower for longer even as the economy shows signs of picking up speed.

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell more than expected in January as a tight supply forced up prices, showing the residential real-estate market faces an uneven recovery. Purchases slowed 4.9 percent to a 4.82 million annualized rate, the least since April, according to figures from the National Association of Realtors.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for April delivery settled at $49.45 a barrel, having slipped 2.7 percent on Monday. Brent was down 2.2 percent at $58.90 in London.

Oil fell as fields in eastern Libya resumed pumping to Hariga port after a pipeline was repaired, according to state-run National Oil Corp. Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of OPEC, is boosting crude output to as much as possible with the global price rout over, said Salim Al Aufi, undersecretary of the oil and gas ministry. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Initial support today is 6902 where we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca – the channel that held well yesterday at 6886. However, it didn’t really bounce much so the bulls will be hoping bull Tuesday plays out from the off with 6902 holding. 6916 is the daily pivot to initial resistance there, and the range between the supports and resistance is getting pretty narrow now – so I expect we will see a break one way or the other shortly. The top of the 10 day is only at 6955 after all, with the 20 day at 6960. All time highs are at this level so bulls will be slightly cautious to see how it plays out. If we dip below the 10 day then 6851 looks likely to be tested. Below this then 6805 area is the next support. There are a few known unknowns at the moment (to quote Donald Rumsfeld) namely Ukraine, Greece, Yellen testimony etc so it pays to be a bit cautious!

I think the 10 day Bianca channel at 6902, maybe a little lower, 6890, will hold initially, with a rise today to 6955. What happens there, at the top of the 2 Bianca channels will be key – either a fall to 6855, or a rise to 6712, top of the 10 day Raff (20 day Raff is at 7032 so not far above). Sorry thats a bit vague and kind of covers 2 bases but at all time highs it will either break higher or the bears will come roaring in.

116 Comments

  2. Little action at the moment…….Took few quid earlier on decent short
    Awaiting Argyles arrival and his predicted action for the day…….

    Trade2win undecided as well which way….

    3. A bit surprised you covered that short for a few points, I thought you were saying yesterday that 6800 was “nailed on” for later today.

  3. Just finished lunch after a couple of hours on the beach. Now for some serious business. Today’s call is FTSE around 6900 to 6915 before a decisive break down later. The Bears are waiting for some bad news to start the downward cycle and today there will be some bad news around. 6850 will hold for the time being, before 6750 by end of week. So ladies and gentlemen, the advice remains the same. Any rise in FTSE to be met with a short. Anyone advocating long is really trying to fool themselves and there are plenty of fools on here.

    1. Ah!
      The duo arrives. Robin Rastus & Batman Argyle.
      Hey Batman – atleast get the time difference correct.

  5. Greece imo will get passed through. Yellen will do her usual pump…. and Draghi will do whatever it takes……

    New highs then a nice drop before the QE pump starts next week……. any takers for that theory?

  8. Arrival of Batman Argyle & his sidekick Rastus.
    or is it
    the Joker Argyle & Rastus the Penguin
    So how are you two going to entertain us today.

    2. Libel laws are enforcable Mr Hamley especially when deliberately trolling within forums these days.
      I’ll put your Penguin comment down to Exuberance on this occasion….

      1. Oh Rastus, don’t be a spoilsport. Let them have their fun. At the end of the day it’s just a bit of banter to pass the time, whilst accumulating dosh. It’s up to them if they want to listen as opposed to taking the P**s.

  10. Certainly very flat out there today………Had expected big drop yesterday/today but hasn’t materialised so I was certainly wrong on that one….

      1. Mr Hamley, you are seriously annoying me. Explain why you would need a stop when shorting from top of the market. I have taken over £20 k in the last 2 weeks doing exactly what I’m doing now. I can’t help people like you who seem intent on taking the p**s. Now toddle off and watch loose women or whatever it is that floats your boat, as I have another hour of sunbathing left.

        1. Argyle, don’t believe a word you are saying. If you are shorting markets without stops and claim you are making 20 grand or whatever, it’s a lie. We heard it all before here on chat. You are dreaming.

          1. Hi Jack2,

            How are you doing and how is your trading going on ? Its been a longtime. Every year we would have some charlatan in this forum (Dola, Syed and now Argyle)

  14. Jackie boy. If you think it’s a load of c**p, why reply. Just. out of curiosity, why would you need stops on shorts from the highest levels. Do you seriously think it’s going up to 7050 this week. If so you are clearly deluded. As previously mentioned you can short any rise on the FTSE without any concern. The market will be back with you in a short time.

    2. That’s the point, why short if you don’t have stops? I think lots of things and none of it will influence the price and yes, the price may go to 7050 as I cannot control it, neither you do.

  15. A sensible question Dan.

    With the election only 9 weeks away, there is still concern the wrong side might win and we end up like France. QE in Euroland will suck money out of UK shares into Euroshares. Poor Euro exchange rate will make UK shares not attractive to the continent. UK will raise interest rates before other major countries.

    If it becomes apparent there will be no change in govt and there are no world crisis then 7000 plus may become achievable, however only a complete fool would consider it possible now.

  16. Also Dan the government don’t want any paper headlines saying shares hit record levels. They are keen to make sure they aren’t accused of making the wealthy even wealthier. So good economic news is published but no mention of share values. To ensure it stays this way they are deploying every available means to keep it down. Of course after the election the wealthy will be rewarded by a surge on the FTSE.

    1. Great children’s bed time story,
      I can nearly visualize it, Cameron & osborne going to
      Murdoch …” please murdoch only mention the good
      economic news…but hide the value of the shares ”
      I would wear a hat while you sunbathe

    3. Nah, came out of that a couple of points down, didn’t do what I hoped.
      I can see 100 points on the upside for the DOW dragging us with it.

  18. RJ, I’m taking it easy after a loss on Dow last year, now I will never short the tops just because I want it to. I am continuing testing my original scalping strategy which works for me as my timing on markets is limited. Keep making small profits. Testing my strict MM (money management) and fighting with stop losses and for this reason I hate when somebody suggests not to use it. It costs me so much that I cannot even contemplate of not using them again.
    How are you doing? Haven’t seen you here for a while. We just come and go, that’s the way it is.

    1. I have not been trading much Jack but just watching and reading Nick’s blog. I find its very difficult to trade with a small account. I use to trade Dow and Dax but with the volatility. I will jump back in when I have a decent capital.

  19. I don’t appreciate the back biting in some of the posts. Please keep it civil as I want this site to be a help to people, not an ego fest like other forums. IP addresses can be blocked if it persists. Thanks.

    As an aside, the long from 6902 is going well today….. 6955 on the cards?

    1. I think your Hamley character is causing the majority of the angst within this comments….
      The guy is baiting others and then expecting no one to follow up. I called him up about trolling earlier but he’s persisted again twice

      If it continues I will leave having only just registered

    2. LOL, I went long at 6901…………..sold it at 08 🙁
      FTSE’s showed willing by that grind upwards, now up to the DOW to keep it going.

  20. Some seriously sensible comments from the Argyle character there…….
    Inclined to agree with most of it……

  24. I was a bit concerned I didn’t get my 18114 or 16 to start with so I pulled out of trade and when I come back I see it did jumped to 12 in a click. very messy. not sure if I would have managed to pick that one.

    1. It’s a fair point Smoking, but blindly shorting just cause it’s going up seems like suicide. Best to follow the trend, not the crowd. Most on IG are still short and must be holding onto some large positions in the red.

  30. Still can see that itching drop coming for later this month, but right now we’re heading to that all climactic 7000

  32. Argyle says:
    February 24, 2015 at 11:14 am
    £100 a point short FTSE 6819

    not looking pretty right now???

          2. 6,875 is key though. If it bounces there we’ll go straight back up to 6,950, or even 7K. Have to watch it closely.

      1. Hi RJ, Not a good start for my kind of trading. Just recovering from Jan month loss. 🙂 Hope you are well . THanks

  35. FTSE Daily — I thought this chart might interest some. The FTSE is well entrenched in a rising channel. So far, a mixture of good news and bad news hasn’t triggered a break-out; either up or down. The upper rail, one day ahead, is now touching 7000; representing the upper reasonable bound for the moment. If the index falls below ≈ 6850; the lower bound of the channel, I should then think about catering for a falling market. As it is, my ROC indicator is in positive territory.
    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zpse042b5cd.png

    1. Agree. Think we could see 7,000 either late tomorrow or Thurs, though the bottom of my rising tramline is @ 6,875. If it falls below that think we’ll see a tonne of downward momentum.

  37. RJ, I know what you mean. I am now on a small account but you know, there’s less pressure. And it was hard to start again. I gathered some sum just under a grand and trade £1-2 pp. Hope you will be trading soon. Why did you stop, I remember you said you took money out of your account.

    1. Could be Jack, or just a pause before more record highs. 🙂
      I wonder what we’ll do tomorrow if they close around 18250 or more….I think there’ll be a few sweaty palms amongst the shorters and a few bandwaggon jumping longs.
      Everyone’s expecting a pullback………….

      1. I wouldn’t risk second time. People got their pullback to R1, what else to ask? I’ve seen many times second time didn’t work as everyone would expect it.
        I can still see room up there for the bulls (18250-350) although it cannot rise forever.

  43. Yes Darren was tempted to add but have stuck my plan…. Will check back tomorrow now still looking for a test of 11000 but the way this baby is going I could be in for a wait 🙁

  44. Sunday before last I guessed that Dow would head for 11400. It has put on > 250 points since Monday 16 Open — currently ≈ 11220. 😉

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