Good morning. Friday was quite a wild day on the FT100 with follow through selling from the ECB news on Thursday then positive news from the US jobs data. However miners and oil stocks reversed gains following a statement by OPEC members saying they had failed to agree an oil production ceiling. I believe there was also a fair bit of “stop hunting” by the markets with some platforms going sub 6200 for a few minutes on Thursday evening. “Spiking” prices/indices seems to be the order of the day now so that is why it can be good to setup ‘orders to open’ and close on ‘limits’ and play them at their own game! The U.S. non-farm payrolls data signalled that a rate rise in the U.S. was on the cards for December, however this is already built into market prices now. Sector wise the main fallers were oils and miners with house builders the best sector on the back of a positive statement from Berkeley Group.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose after a U.S. employment report boosted optimism in the world’s largest economy, with Japanese shares climbing as a weaker yen sent exporters higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4 percent to 132.62 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose the most in almost three months on Friday, while the yen weakened 0.4 percent against the dollar after the bigger-than-expected increase in American nonfarm payrolls. Japan’s Topix index added 0.9 percent on Monday. The data supports the case for the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates next week, according to Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy in Sydney at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees about $115 billion.
“Providing the Fed undertakes a dovish hike as we expect, in stressing that future moves will be gradual, then confidence is likely to return,” he said. “The Fed is unlikely to do anything to threaten global growth.”
South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 1.2 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index advanced 0.2 percent.
Friday’s report showed a 211,000 increase in November U.S. payrolls, following a 298,000 gain a month earlier that was bigger than previously estimated. The jobless rate held at 5 percent, a more than seven-year low. A healthy rate of hiring has raised the odds that Fed officials will boost rates this month for the first time since 2006. The pace of future increases is contingent on progress toward the central bank’s inflation goal and probably depends on how quickly wage pressures mount as the job market tightens.
Draghi Comments
Meanwhile, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi tried to soothe investors disappointed by his move on economic support last week, signaling on Friday that the bank will add stimulus as needed.
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed. The underlying equity measure jumped 2.1 percent on Friday, its strongest gain since Sept. 8, with the gauge posting its ninth weekly advance in the last 10. A measure of volatility plunged the most in two years.
Futures on the Hang Seng Index added 0.5 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 0.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.7 percent on Friday, paring its weekly advance to 2.6 percent, as speculation of increased monetary stimulus faded and investors prepared for the first initial public offerings in five months.
Energy shares retreated in Asia on Monday as oil traded below $40 a barrel after OPEC tossed aside the idea of limiting production to control prices at a meeting in Vienna on Friday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it will keep pumping as much as it does now — about 31.5 million barrels a day — effectively endorsing limitless output. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook and Prediction
We have the daily pivot for initial support at the 6366 level for today (live charts one slightly lower at 6345 though) and also more favourably the 2 Bianca channels at 6230 and 6215. As such I think we are going to have a slightly bullish day today and probably test the 6315 area, where we have the top of the declining 30min channel and also the 200ema on the 30min chart. Additionally we have the daily EMAs (10 and 25) here so this level could act as fairly decent resistance. We have had a decent bounce and held the gains from the 6200 level so its distinctly possible that that will be the December low. However, a break of 6200 today will likely see the bottom of the 30min channel at 6183, though I feel more bullish than that for today.
Morning all,see it hit Nicks 6245 to support that argument from last week about levels from live charts.
Yep, few supports at that level today. Got a nice Dax long at 10810 today too
Nice start to the week,this close to Christmas it could cost you if your nearest and dearest see it though 🙂
Mums the word eh
Morning chaps.
Good little opening dip for the longs to get in, nice one at 10810 Nick, now a question of whether this is a dead cat or resumption of trend (there was an uptrend, wasn’t there?).
Fib might be a way of measuring that, approx. 6300ish and 11000 should provide some resistance I reckon. Recent cash lows are a catalyst and a couple of hours trading away.
I’m just playing Whack A Mole off the rsi as usual, currently long 72 waiting for a new highs spike to sell (90ish?). No, 85 and out, shorting 90+.
First hunch trade of the day, short 82 for 10 mins or so 5 pt stop
Keeping it for a little while stop b/e
That was a little while 🙂 out for 11
Short again 72
out for nothing let’s see what happens with this DAX spike
Tricky around here, DAX seems determined for 11000…. ok sucked in lol, short 76 8 either way
out for +4 and long at 72 8 pt stop
No, out for nothing. Unless the DOW retraces that little spike asap then it might be short term exhaustion 1min candles.
Overtrading, time for a cigarette and a walk round the garden I think
Might as well look at the 1 min chart so little is happening.
Sold this break of 60, could accelerate if DAX loses 940 too, but generally think I’d like to be cheap long into DOW opening.
Will probably hold, +9 will do
A long at 48 10 either way
It feeling wrong being lol out for 7
Am I hallucinating or are there really 2 blokes in Bear suits ringing the opening bell on the Dow (CNBC now) ?
Well, they rang some one’s bell alright Now just need it to go down like the clappers hohoho
Not all bad,turns out it was one Bear (Coca Cola,Polar) and a Baseball 🙂
Welcome to the tmfp echo chamber, have I pissed everyone off or are you as bored as me?
🙂
Keep ’em coming. I’m loving every minute of the TMFP show!!
Afternoon chaps been a bit distracted its MOT time!
Got to go out again but I’ve made some progress on my Dax longs from last week,used a guaranteed stop over W/e for safety my long from 694 is presently up 263 pts and my second from 727 is up 229 pts they were a bit higher.My Ftse is still behind a chunk of pts at the moment.GL all.
Sh*t got to go out for half an hour
Don’t you dare collapse before I get back
Can’t resist leaving a little short for the sake of it 48 60 stop limit 32
That worked out alright, shame I wasn’t here or would’ve shorted that bounce off 32.
A long off 20 might work into the close, I’d look for bounce dip bounce from here, but let’s get my coat off first and kettle on
20-26-20 was the bounce dip how high will the 2nd bounce go? Not much more than 32 I’m thinking out and maybe a short there
looks like 28 was it, run it to the close b/e stop anyway
out for +4
I’d be surprised is there’s not some more downside to come today
short 21 cos I can
out for 7
Afternoon all, been out all day so not really watching. Looks all a bit dull to me, guess we’ll see a little “re-blancing” after the roller coaster from Friday but it seems that tmfp can definitely make a silk purse out of a sows ear which is a lesson to us all in the art of concentrating!
For me, it could easily drift to the low 6200’s but I’m still intending to pick up anything I can at 6200 (for Santa). Equally, if it rallies I’m waiting for 6400.
Yes,but with Oil falling like it is today…
Point taken, WSF, I’ll rein myself in a bit!
🙂 I think I have a higher Santa target than you,just remember getting burnt in the past for ignoring the USD value and that break of S in oil is ugly.Wonder if Anne Robinson took a profit on her cheap B.P shares from the Gulf spill,she certainly made some noise about buying them.
http://oilprice.com/commodity-price-charts?1&page=chart&sym=CL*1&name=Crude%20Oil%20WTI
Oil’s looking so terrible/cheap it must be worth a long but
“the market can stay illogical for longer than you can stay solvent” must be born in mind
“the market can stay illogical for longer than you can stay solvent” – great quote!
Meant to add that whichever way you say it, it is all about risk reward! (Might have to have another look at myself!)
For the rest of today, I’d suggest that the DOW’s got to hold 17640, virtually bang on 50% retracement of the retracement, or it might get a bit nasty.
It probably will…hold, that is.
Catch you tmrw. 🙂
Hmmm, tmfp, oil, there is a thought. Just been flicking through the out of the money longish date options. They don’t seem stupid money…..? 25 odd pence for 47.5 in Feb. I’m thinking of spending some of my ill gotten on a cheeky back book punt. What can possibly go wrong?! Thinking goes, can’t get lower than 27 odd and could easily be 65. Any thoughts?
Long oil at 3864
Blimey, ant, brave shout but I like your style. Don’t think I’m tough enough to play the cash!!! Might have a look at the options tomorrow. Good luck!
Sure you are!
I don’t buy $20 oil as per media although I will if it comes about.
So in the meantime I’ll buy the dips.
Bugger all on telly and got itchy fingers. Discipline, discipline! Turn my phone off before I do something stupid.
In the meantime, I still haven’t managed to get any ftse at 00!!!
Evening All ,
I’m going to put the following orders in for tomorrow.
Short 6266 – Stop 6278 – Target 6228 (Tgt 1,2 ,3 6253 – 6241 – 6228)
This is R1 Resistance Level area
Long 6212 – Stop 6207 – Target 6228 (Tgt 1,2,3, 6217, 6223, 6228)
Today’s Monday 7th – support level 6208. The stop maybe a bit close on this
trade and I’ve put it in simply using a 3:1 target.
Long 6194 – Stop 6183 – Target 6228 (Tgt 1,2,3, 6206 6217, 6228)
This are has S1 Support here 6197 area.
WSF – Wondered if you’re trading ASX Tonight ??