FTSE 100 Trading levels, Support and Resistance , trading help and trade alerts

Good morning. What appeared to be a positive day at the start soon unwound into a negative close. The main culprit was the prices of crude oil and metals which slipped worryingly during the day and pulled down oil and commodity shares. The main causes being lack of oil supply ceiling, a strong dollar and China economy concerns. After hours the market has stabilised with 6200 being a key support level which will possibly hold. However, there was weak data overnight as China’s exports fell for a fifth month and a slump in imports extended to a record 13 months, suggesting six interest-rate cuts and expedited fiscal spending are failing to boost growth. Inflation data on Wednesday is forecast to show producer price deflation deepened in November.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell ahead of China trade data after oil tumbled to a six-year low, weighing on energy producers and sending BHP Billiton Ltd. to its lowest in 10 years.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 131.79 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with energy and material companies leading declines among the measure’s 10 industry groups. The gauge is on course to drop 4.4 percent this year, its first back-to-back annual losses since 2002, as a 24 percent collapse in the Bloomberg Commodity Index in 2015 weighs on resource producers and Chinese economic growth decelerates. American crude sank past $38 a barrel to its lowest level since 2009 after OPEC abandoned its strategy of limiting production.

“Market focus at the moment is the potential deflationary effects of lower oil prices, and the signaling that aggregate demand is weak,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Ltd. in Sydney. “The regional news is the release of China trade data. These are the numbers that smacked the market in August, and any further weakening could bring panic.”

Chinese exports for November probably fell 5 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey before a report due Tuesday. That compares with a 6.9 percent decrease the previous month.

Japan’s Topix index fluctuated after revised data showed gross domestic product rose an annualized 1 percent in the third quarter, beating estimates for a 0.2 percent gain. The previous reading showed a 0.8 percent decline, which had indicated the nation slipped back into recession.

Australia Slides
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.1 percent. BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, lost 5.1 percent, heading for its lowest close since 2005, after iron ore sank below $40 a metric ton on rising low-cost supply. Rio Tinto Group slipped 2.4 percent.

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index retreated 0.1 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent.

Futures on the Hang Seng Index fell 0.7 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 percent on Monday, rising for the fifth time in six days, as health-care, technology and consumer-discretionary companies rallied, outweighing declines for brokerages after Citic Securities Co. said it has been unable to contact two executives.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The underlying equity measure lost 0.7 percent on Monday, trimming an earlier drop of as much as 1.2 percent, after jumping 2.1 percent on Friday. Traders are pricing in a 78 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6247 and I think there might be a bit of initial resistance there, as we have dropped off that level overnight. It looks a bit bearish to start with with that weaker Chinese news, dropping the overnight rise back to yesterdays closing level. There is a cluster of supports around the 6200 area so we might get an initial dip to this area before a bounce, though all the moving averages I am watching on all the timeframes are pretty negative at the moment. The bulls need to break and hold above 6226 first thing to enable any sort of push higher, though the daily chart has the 6303 level fro the 25ema as the next hurdle for them to jump. Santa might have to be strong this year if we are going to get a rally towards the end of the month. I have gone for the first long at the 6200 area as we have the 20day Bianca at 6206, as well as S1 and the 10min channel there.

59 Comments

        1. Yes mate, 805 was the number for me on Dax, might try a revisit maybe even make 820, covered just a bit at 6180 looking to replace at 200

          1. Nice,I was thinking about your theory on Psychology etc and preference.Do you think you are short inclined because that was the probability trade when you started ? Only wondering because I am V. cynical but I still see a flat Mkt and think,”never short a boring mkt”,not thats a top ?

      1. Implications of Oil at 37.94 Jack,Banks,Countries etc etc need some “News”.Miners are suspending divs and down almost 5% today,no demand,people used to say low Oil prices were good for them 🙂

        1. Always nice to see the pump prices back at the levels they were at when oil was $40 before…. oh hang on a sec

          1. 🙂 Yes like Barclaycard,never cut rates,but they are now eager to raise them in line with BOE rate rises…I remember when Organised Crime lent at 20% and they were probably more amenable to missing a single payment too.

      2. Lol be fair Jack, Nick had 26 as a must break area for the bulls.
        Looking like the selling has abated for a while, but added at bit at 90 for luck.

  2. My 6200 bounce stalled at 6222 first thing and bulls failed to break the 10min moving average there, 6175 support now in play for 6212 possibly (or tmfp’s 6200), then more downside looking likely. Don’t think the bulls are going to be able to get 6245 today now.

    1. Right, thanks. I lost in the morning long 40 points, now gained 30 points back on Dax, another long. Got frustrated a bit. To go long at 9.23-5 wasn’t wise but I did, thought the reverse had finally started. But stops pushed me out. In here stops did the bad job, it recovered, but what if it didn’t?

    1. I’m sure it’s nothing personal Jack. 🙂
      Re: stops, yes, we all hate getting stopped out but a combination of hindsight and selective memory isn’t very helpful really. I wouldn’t trade without them, simple as that, wouldn’t matter how much margin I had.
      If you’re wrong you’re wrong, just get over it and on with the next one..

      1. Jumped out too early from this short. I took it 10817 before it travelled to 10852, lost my judgment here, only had 3 points out of it. That sideway at 11.01-06 spooked me. Just didn’t do how I planned. Not it’s 10804, oh jes…

  4. Looks like my collection was added to at 00. To be fair, it all looks a bit sick at the moment but am still looking for 6450 year end.

  5. Re psychology WSF, my theory is there is a link between “establishment” and long, on the basis that obviously TPTB have a vested interest in the system continuing which means with our global financial setup continued ‘progress’ i.e. increase in everything.

    Like many teenagers, I was “a bit of a rebel” and found things like Private Eye, the hippy movement etc. appealing. My Dad. God bless, was fiercely Labour and very cynical about his war experiences. all of which combined to make me “anti establishment” and may explain the default short approach to trading i.e. essentially destructive.

    1. That does makes sense,because the political aspect has the implicit idea that the “Establishment” can be overcome,changed and I think that that is a belief that has been lost in favour of going with the trend and not bucking it for fear of the consequences 🙂 sort of thing,Thanks.

      1. Time for a tmfp anecdote…
        I used to love gangster films (watched on my state of the art VCR) and was quite a snappy dresser, chalk pin stripe handmade suits etc.
        In the old LME building in Leadenhall Market there was no aircon so, when it got hot in the summer, we had to wait for the announcement “Gentlemen, you may remove your coats” to reduce to shirt sleeves.
        We duly did one day and there was a gasp of indignation as I exposed my black shirt and white silk tie a la Capone in its full glory. Within minutes I had been asked to leave and dress “appropriately”.
        I was a teenager, I’d never heard of Oswald Mosley…..

        1. 🙂 Some kind of Irony in the way people nick colour scheming off the Anarchists and they claim not to care,Isis have pinched the Black Flag now too.

      1. I’m probably being sucked in here but there’s more downside potential than 6160 today.
        Another test of 17600 on the DAX and 17450 on the DOW this afternoon are perfectly possible, which could see us low 6100’s.
        Yeah I know you’ve heard it all before from me, but I can taste it and, mixing metaphors, have put my money where my mouth is.
        Short DAX too at 10770 stop 805.

        1. out of the DAX for +10, I don’t like trading it and it’s a distraction today. Looking to replace that stupid 80 cover at b/e.

          5. No, rsi’s sort of out the window now WSF, just looking at previous lows through my bear goggles.
            1 hour rsi @ 13.7 did make me feel better about slimming down at 55 though. It was crazy big.
            A little more covered at 48, only to have some bullets just in case they try a pre DOW rally on us.

          6. Thanks,Maestro,was just questioning my reasons to come out at 56,which were the flattening RSI,the Bianca 10 around 59,the time (close to 12.30 )my idea earlier that we were heading to mid 30’s and that that was close enough and the profit.Obviously I was thinking I was jumping the gun to take the money when I saw you go in at 60 and looking at it I probably should have lowered the S/L or trimmed it,dont have the Bear goggles,but am certainly trying to get that “in the now” thing.Guess I will follow Jacks lead and wait for a U.S lead now I’ve put myself on the Bench 🙂 Cheers.

          7. That’s fair enough, I should be happy that my initial unlikely target has been hit in the timeframe I hoped, but the way it’s been done offers the possibility of us being halfway through a trend down day.
            The 3 markets are in different stages of pullback, FTSE has already broken the recent previous low (6200) and the DAX is in spitting distance <100 points (but only another 150ish from our 6000 equivalent).
            The DOW has ~160 then another 320 to go.
            The reason for our comparative weakness is the heavy energy weighting of the index, but that misses the point.
            It's all about sentiment and, in my opinion, the two recent sell offs will make buyers increasingly wary. To fail so convincingly not once but twice at 6450 increases the downward potential.
            Bulls would argue there's nothing broke till new lows are made, but they can't deny the failures all round to break through big forming tops.
            *End of bear message*
            🙂

  7. When you look at the past charts it’s simple. But when you actually participating, the nerves takes on you somehow.

      1. I’m trying to calm down here too, before a coronary 🙂
        Must wipe the footprints off the ceiling before she comes home…..

  8. Afternoon Chaps,
    How are you doing?
    I – Won 1 & Lost 1 this morning.
    tmfp – atleast you got the GAP fill 6167 – think it was.
    I’m finding it difficult to make any decisions here at this price point…
    Stuck in the middle of a pennant (Daily)
    6100 ?? or even lower * 6090 to be precise
    6350 ??
    Can only think to use the 19 / 39 EMA > 2 min as a guide .

    1. Hi Hugh, you’ll only get one answer from me as you know. 🙂
      An obscure EMA is a bit of a candle in the wind really. It’s Big Picture time, mouse in one hand, b*lls in the other.

      1. LoL – Steady 🙂
        Yep – Guess it’s bit as Jack was saying
        “When you look at the past charts it’s simple. But when you actually participating….”

    2. The same: got to b/e. Another long trade on Dax didn’t bring much apart from 1 or 2 points. Now didn’t enter short as pull back was rather tiny and it’s before US open.

          1. No Jack, I’m currently short x 18 my normal stake and will be taking profits on further weakness, 10% at a time.
            Stop on all is 6175 at the mo, which would give me +27 apart from what I’ve banked already so it’s all gravy from here.
            🙂

      2. Thanks for the Bear Goggles perspective above tmfp,totally get it,2 consecutive weeks of Dow Doji,the resistance & the way that support held on the FTSE & felt like not Selling activity rather than buying,because of the way it wasnt probing up etc etc and re 6137 I had that from somewhere(I take different timeframes and then put them to one list in the a.m),but I also had a S/L there and this morning it felt like it would hit.For some reason I see the downside as unreliable,hence why I said what I said about what was the probability trade when you first started,for me I think it was better to be Long.Anyway nice to question this stuff and cheers for the input.Thanks to Jack too,what he said earlier about emotion made me realise I was pretty calm about the Idea of not hitting my next cash target and that that is crazy because I am ignoring the fact that in order to miss the upside there has to be downside opportunity or a range bound one.

  10. More out 34 getting tired now
    I think the DOW will have to have a look at 450 at some point but may round number rally off 500 this time.

          3. And nearly that time again, comfortable short atm for the MHH with stop at 61, I think there’s been opportunity enough for short covering and could be some longs still wanting out, so down from here is my guess/hope, close in 30’s, but if 61 goes que sera.

          4. and out at 66, one of those times my 3×1 stop costs money.
            Goodbye bear run, thanks for the fish 🙂

          6. And out for +31, got my 30’s close near as dammit, shame it went higher than I’d hoped first.
            A hot bath and early night for me, that was exhausting.
            Catch you tmrw.

  11. Yep, long halted as I thought. But managed to grab a few points and now back to where I was at the beginning of the day. Lol

  13. My Trades for tomorrow…

    Long 6096 – Stops 15 Points – Target 6151
    Short 6182 – Stops 10 Points – Targeting 6139
    Target derived from Stop (RR=3:1)
    Short 6206 – Stops 20 Points – Targeting 6152

    Couple of others but I’m not sure about these…
    Long 6126 – Stops 6116 – Targeting 6158
    Short off 6158 – Stops 15 Points – Targeting 6113
    Target driven from Stop (RR=3:1)

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