Support 6212 6192 6165 6151 Resistance 6248 6277 6301 6329

Good morning. Great bounce off the 6060 level on Monday that is still going and looks like its on for the 6300 level mentioned yesterday. As you know I am away this week so slightly shorter email that usual. Interesting how looking at the charts on Saturday it was really only the long at 6060 that stood out. Might do the email for Monday on a Saturday more often! The initial dip on Sunday night that saw the FTSE dip to 6000 was short lived and as per usual after the shock the markets rise.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose from an almost six-week low, following gains in U.S. and European shares, as a weakening yen boosted Japanese equities and concern eased from the attacks in Paris.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent to 131.31 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Monday at the lowest since Oct. 6. Shares rallied during the European and U.S. sessions, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumping 1.5 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbing 0.3 percent. The history of terror incidents around the world over the last 15 years shows market reactions are often sharp and short-lived. “Good gains in overnight U.S. markets should wash across” into Asia, said Tony Farnham, a strategist at Patersons Securities Ltd. in Sydney. “Initial cautiousness has quickly dissipated.”

The Asia-Pacific gauge remains 4.7 percent lower this year and may post its first back-to-back annual declines since 2002 as investors assess the extent of China’s economic slowdown amid preparations by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month.

It’s been more than 10 years since Europe experienced terror attacks of comparable scope to those in Paris. Past incidents, such as bombings that killed 191 people on Madrid commuter trains in March 2004 and left more than 50 dead in London in July 2005, spurred selloffs in equities that were erased days or weeks later.

Unfortunate Precedent
“What we have learned is that there is not a meaningful market impact from such attacks,” Anastasia Amoroso, a New York-based global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “So because we have this unfortunate precedent, that’s why the market is looking past this.”

Japan’s Topix index advanced 1.2 percent after the yen slid 0.5 percent against the dollar on Monday. South Korea’s Kospi index added 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.9 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index gained 0.3 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.8 percent in most recent trading, while those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares in Hong Kong added 0.2 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are encountering a bit of resistance on the 10minute chart at the 6245 area, so I think we may get an initial dip from here first this for today, as profit is banked after that rise yesterday. We have posed above the daily Bianca channels, and also the 10 day Raff so a little bit of a dip is to be expected. If the bulls break the 6245 are then the next areas of note are 6285 and then the 6303 area. We have a 6.4 divi tomorrow so not a particularly large one for buyers to hold for though divi has more relevance for tomorrows session).

43 Comments

  1. Morning all, short order at 6250 was missed by 1 point out of hours. Market has just hit that level again after falling to 6209. R3 is holding up at 6261 as a decent area of resistance for any stops. Inflation data at half 9 so we could see a dip.

    Great morning for individual equities, doesn’t matter what you own, everything has gone up.

  2. Morning all.
    Good bounce continues into the previous support area at 6250/6300, the next couple of days will be important to see if it can continue or fail.
    DAX 3hr is hitting on a declining high line around here 10870/900.
    Although this is a good positive reaction to the Paris events, don’t forget we were pretty weak all round before that and nothing much has changed.
    Still bearish as usual on rallies, but made a few points long side this morning off the initial dip.
    I like an early trade to get things moving, so I invariably put a small amount straight after the opening on the first RSI signal to go >70 or <30. Yesterday was a disaster, but it has an 80% success rate over the last three months.

  3. Morning All,
    Sunday dip did put fear in, but looks like longs on low Friday and yesterday were great buys….and added some to ISA and stocks for end of year rally, already up on those FTSE100 stocks. Anyway do most think we rally from here?

    2. On the basis on nothing scientific year end should be 6450-ish but choppy ride from here. I’ll get shouted down by tmpf(!!) but I’m buying the dips.

      1. Lol, I won’t shout you down mate, your guess is as good as anybody’s.
        It doesn’t make a huge difference to me, I open at 7 and close at 5, just like a shop, every day on its merits.

  4. I dont buy recent talk of Santa Rallies just yet – we have weeks to go and my recollection is that they suck punters in early December and the rally comes in the final days – so there is time for a decent rally and another drop before Santa arrives. Cant believe the reversal in sentiment since the weekend however. Are we seriously going to hold a 2% rise today. Sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the dip – whenever that happens which Ill buy into….

    1. No body is saying it is going straight up,just that the bottom could be in for the year and that that fits the Santa pattern.

  5. Morning All,
    Went on the early morning bounce – diluted a bit, by putting in a Short at 6250 – Stopped at 60 (as per Nick’s chart above) – but gone Short again for any weakness because the chart was telling me that . Covering Long Order in at 6564 incase this goes higher. I’m not feeling strongly either way really except that there seems scope for upside looking at RDSB and BP to name a few – just following the technicals.
    Yes tmfp – RSI T yesterday weren’t great but still find it’s worth recording the levels as the seem to leave price points that seem important.

      1. Another excellent bit of modern art there Hugh 🙂
        And just like people say when they encounter modern art….
        “Yes, but what does it MEAN?”

        1. LoL – I’m not sure why but your posts lift my day …:-)
          The purpose of modern art is not the idea but the analysis of and extension of sensations – Susan Sontag.

    1. Depends what it looks like when it gets there for me. I have a small short (surprise surprise) atm @ 70, but it’s so quiet I’m not expecting much.

          6. Good stuff.
            I’m still thinking why I didn’t short in the 60’s too, had reasonably good diverging rsi….
            and missed a 30’s long @12.5 rsi.

          3. Good luck, the DOW doesn’t look like it’s got too much life.
            We’ll see what we see in the morning.

            Could have done without that 40 pt blip though.

      1. Hi tmfp a profit is a profit 🙂 ,is your comp ok,no lag or anything ? mine has been all over the place this afternoon,tried Customer service and there were 52 people ahead of me.

        1. Yes it’s been a bit laggy, not as bad as the other day.
          You could trade this by carrier pigeon today and not miss much.

          1. Thanks, 🙂 I tried logging in and out and it took a couple of hours to get back in 🙁 so could have done with a carrier Pigeon.MHH seems sedate though.

          2. Yes, a dreary day since the run up.
            Too dear now for bargain hunters and sellers a little cautious after the strong bounce, Santa Rally coming etc.

            See you tmrw 🙂

          3. Yes,seem to have run out of buyers without news,maybe one of the FOMC guys this week or Draghi on Fri,whatever,something will turn up.Have a good evening.

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