Support 6085 6080 6050 Resistance 6109 6173 6248

Good morning. The news is obviously about the latest terror attacks in Paris that started on Friday evening, further weighing on markets which brought the FTSE down to 6080 (out of hours Friday). Paris is currently in lock down, with 120 dead at the time of writing this (Saturday morning as I am travelling early Monday morning). Overall it was another negative day with the FT100 extending losses to almost 3% in two days taking it to a six-week low of 6118 (in hours). Poor retail data in the US pushed more weight on the downward move. In terms of sectors house builders and supermarkets were the biggest losers and surprisingly commodities were near the top of the list of best performers.

News from Bloomberg
Europe Stocks Have Worst Week in Two Months on Growth Concerns
Worse-than-forecast data on euro-area growth, coupled with lingering concern about a Federal Reserve rate increase, dragged European stocks to a three-week low.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.8 percent at the close of trading in London, with three-fourths of its shares down, as data showed euro-area gross domestic product in the third quarter increased less than economists had forecast. The measure lost 2.7 percent this week, the most since the beginning of September.

“There are still ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth, and there are other worries about more QE in Europe versus a potential rate increase in U.S., which creates a dichotomy,” said Patrick Spencer, equities vice chairman at Robert W. Baird & Co. in London. “The higher dollar, higher rates and slower growth make investors worry, and the numbers in China haven’t been so great lately.”

The 12 percent rebound that took the Stoxx 600 to its highest level since August last week is being questioned amid weak economic figures, while the Fed prepares to raise interest rates. The equity gauge lost 1.6 percent on Thursday, the most in six weeks, on concern that higher borrowing costs in the U.S. may hamper the global recovery, just as commodities tumbled to their lowest levels since 1999.

All Stoxx 600 industry groups fell on Friday, with retail and household-goods companies sliding the most. Hermes International SCA and Burberry Group Plc dropped more than 3.4 percent. Eurofins Scientific SE slid 4.4 percent after HSBC Holdings Plc recommended selling the shares. Elekta AB dropped 3 percent after saying authorities are investigating its Italian unit for antitrust breach.

Syngenta AG was one of the few companies up, surging as much as 11 percent after people familiar with the discussions said China National Chemical Corp. is in talks to buy the Swiss pesticide maker.

Energy producers and miners led declines in the Stoxx 600 this week, sliding more than 5 percent. Telecommunication companies were the only ones that didn’t fall among 19 industry groups. They rose just 0.3 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I am thinking that Asia might have a slightly negative start to the week, however at 6080/6100 level we are sitting on some fairly key support levels – 10 day Bianca at 6085, and the 20 day Raff at 6080, with a daily RSI(10) at 21. We have a declining 30min channel though with resistance at 6170, and support at 6050 for Monday. The daily pivot for Monday is 6109.

Slightly out there maybe but I am going to go for a rise from the 6060 area towards the pivot at 6110, and possibly further upside as the market shows the Paris terrorists that they won’t just tank after such atrocities. If that 6060 level holds then we might well start to turn a bit more positive overall, and see a rise away from the bottom of the current daily channels. There is a possible trend reversal area at the 6097 area to switch from bear to bull as well. A rise to near 6300 actually looks quite possible on the daily chart, as we have the 25ema there after a cross from bull to bear (the 10ema has moved below the 25ema). So, I’m going to set an order for 6060 and see what happens.

118 Comments

      1. WSF – You’re obviously in a festive mood..!
        Just taking it all in – 5 down days last week I suppose some relief would be in order.
        Friday’s Hi 6168 – Looking to act as some resistance & marker.

          1. Morning Hugh,yes I am a bit cheerful 🙂 It’s just that I cant see next year as bearish and every single bit of analysis I read over the weekend was negative,”this is a wave 3″ type stuff.That climb from 8 is a bit like the way Australia started ,so wouldnt be surprised if we came down for a bit,but it is Draghi soon.

  2. Why did it go like this? Dropped 200 points down on Dax open? What the heck? Now charts look like a complete mess. I wonder if Si survived…

    1. Morning Jack,the Sunday nightshift stuff is on Fridays board,think he reduced the position and is still running it.

      1. Sounds a bit complicated for me. Somebody recused their position over the weekend which caused the drop (because of Paris events apparently)?

  4. Morning All, hope you all well. Nick sent us an email Saturday to long 6060 Monday morning, typically I didn’t take it, as Sunday drop scared me…:(

    However on bright side….I did take DOW long 17050 on Sunday and I think I closed it a bit too early for 100pnts…

    Now today I’m a bit suspicious of the rise, but averages bullish so will wait and see for a bit and if TMPF can guide us…GLA

    2. That was a brave email, well done Nick!
      Not too sure I can help much on the guidance mali, laid out my thoughts on yesterday’s page.
      Started shorting too early this morning but only with pennies, managed to hit 59 with some weight, taken some profit and sitting patiently 1/2 short looking for a break of 20 or 44 atm.

      I think the DOW might be jittery this week, all they have to look forward to is the no win interest rate decision in 3 weeks.

      1. Hi WSF – No it’s – still using 19 & 39 on 1min – it’s the colour shaded part = Blue/Red.
        I’m still find I’m scratching my head a little with Trend Based and Contra Trend Trades..they always contradict one another..(& will never change)

        1. Yes,I suppose that aligning with basic EMA’s on a different timeframe defeats the point of the 1min.I mean you would just be using it for an exit then.

          1. Thought that through and it is whether you are looking for an insight or looking for what everyone is looking at with M.A’s.

  8. Hello chaps, said all I have to say on yesterday’s page, still short at 59, tempted by +35, but hanging on to see how this mini DAX weakness resolves

      1. I guess I dont think discounting the overnight applies when the people trading it are the same people who are trading it now.

      2. That suspicious looking rise on the DAX confirms 10720 and 6124 support for the short term, if I don’t get stopped on 44 then take a profit on the o/b pullback

        1. I’m talking about last night tmfp i dont trade that IG stuff,but think it can be an indicator.Lights were on in Docklands last night and everyone has S/L’s in Profit of where they wont damage banked profits,just a thought.

          1. That was probably just back office working out potential margin calls for the morning.

            A spec short for the fail @46, stop 54

  9. Riveting stuff this …
    Stops in Tgt 6161

    Quick one to pass the time of day…
    You know when you’re old when
    Your sweetie says, ‘Let’s go upstairs and make love,’ and you answer, ‘Pick one; I can’t do both!’

    1. 🙂

      My Girlfirend asked me when I last slept with someone else and I said,”a long time ago,back in in 09″ and she hugged me,because 09 sounds a lot better than September.

  10. Pulled this up – quite old now – but still makes me laugh…
    Dear Technical Support..
    18 months ago, I upgraded to Girlfriend 1.0 from Drinking Mates 4.2, which I had used for years without any trouble. However, there are apparently conflicts between these two products and the only solution was to try and run Girlfriend 1.0 with the sound turned off.
    To make matters worse, Girlfriend 1.0 is incompatible with several other applications, such as Lads Night Out 3.1, Going Flying 4.5, and Reduce Golf Handicap 6.9.
    Successive versions of Girlfriend proved no better.
    I tried a shareware program, Slapper 2.1, but it had many bugs and left a virus in my system, forcing me to shut down completely for several weeks.
    Eventually, I tried to run Girlfriend 1.2 and Girlfriend 1.0 at the same time, only to discover that when these two systems detected each other they caused severe damage to my hardware.
    I eventually upgraded to Fiance 1.0, only to discover that this product soon had to be upgraded further to Wife 1.0. While Wife 1.0 tends to use up all my available resources, it does come bundled with FreeSexPlus and Cleanhouse2008.
    Shortly after this upgrade, however, I found that Wife 1.0 could be very unstable and costly to run. Any mistakes I made were automatically stored in Wife 1.0’s memory and could not be deleted. They then resurfaced months later when I had forgotten about them.
    Wife 1.0 also has an automatic Diary, Explorer and E-mail filter, and can, without warning, launch TurboStrop and Multi-Whinge. These latter products have no Help files, and I have to try to guess what the problem is.
    Additional problems are that Wife 1.0 needs updating regularly, requiring ShoeShop Browser for new attachments and Hairstyle Express which needs to be reinstalled every other week. Also, when Wife 1.0 attaches itself to my Saab 93 Convertible hard drive, it often crashes.
    Wife 1..0 also comes with an irritating pop-up called MotherInLaw, which can’t be turned off.
    Recently I’ve been tempted to install Mistress 2008, but there could be problems. A friend of mine has alerted me to the fact that if Wife 1.0 detects Mistress 2008, it tends to delete all of your Money files and possibly Pension 6.6 before uninstalling itself.

  12. 10720 up for test again on the DAX a little surprisingly, a break would give us a clear s/t double top and 6130 quite quick here.

      1. Got a small one 46 with 54 stop, but we’re going nowhere till the DAX breaks 10720 which looks well defended.

    1. All that 6250 previous support is now heavy resistance Rich, we may get there and maybe overshoot a bit, but I’d see it as a good shorting area myself.

  14. So, the DOW soon.
    IG expect around unchanged 245/55, although that’s a bit optimistic I think, especially with us having another look at 24 support.
    16962 is 50% retrace of the rise since the end of Sept and they’re just about avoiding completion of a top if they rally from current levels.
    I think they are vulnerable on the downside, especially as they begin to realise how the Fed have painted themselves into a rate rise corner.

    1. Still long on FTSE, but less than half the stake I had on the way down. Need 6,800 to get my dough back! I’m just going to let it run.

    2. I’ve somehow managed to get out of this at breakeven after 15 points in the red. Sometimes the breakeven trades seem like massive wins!

        1. Yes, it sucks you in doesn’t it?
          One of the easiest ways to make losses, anticipation of breaks.
          It’s not a break till it’s broke….

  20. Afternoon all been out today came in and thought I’d watch for the last hour tmfp please could you tell me what time frames you are watching on the Ftse and are you also monitoring multiple time frames on the dow for direction? I’m not trading so if you are busy don’t worry if you don’t have time.

    1. Hi Rich

      UK CPI tomorrow at 9:30 and UK retail sales on Thursday at 9:30. Definately worth marking your charts up for those.

  22. Hi anstel, did you get your account problem resolved?
    I have 1 and 3 min FTSE and DOW on screen atm with 10 rsi, a 30 min cash chart with stoch and rsi on both and a multi period summary of technical indicators and MA’s. And Bitcoin on hourly.
    And Facebook.

    1. Hi tmfp,I will answer first,Has everybody read the small print on your contracts? It’s important, The market opened with a gap down from 6102 to I think about 6008.i had expected to get my position closed out at 80% margin.i removed my resources thinking I would get closed out after I heard the news,I didn’t my trades all stayed live with 0% margin and a negative resources figure in other words a debt.If you are long over the weekend and the market gapped down 1000 pts due to some disaster even with a stop you are still liable.You could lose half your house if you were at £100 pp and it gapped down 1000pts! In my case they only closed my position when it looked like it was going back up!!!! They are in business! If it had crashed I would have been liable,that’s why it says you can lose more than your original deposit.In retrospect I should have left my resources in to cover it.another lesson learned,Stops over the weekend are not applicable if it gaps down. 2nd the reason my debt reduced was because of an outstanding dividend owed to me from the Dow.So everyone BEWARE. Tmfp I don’t know what a 30 min cash chart is? You have stochastics and Rsi on that,I know about Rsi but nothing about stochastics…..do I need stochastics?i will learn if I do?You are losing me here with a multi period of technical indicators and moving averages?dont think I need Bitcoin so I’m forgetting that. Sorry to be a pain but if you could tell me the most important parts to concentrate on i would very much appreciate it. Just so you know I have a 1 min chart 5 min chart and 15 min chart with 3 10 20 50 100 and 200 SMAs with standard Rsi at 14 and standard Macd histogram that’s all I have I understand support and resistance and oversold or overbought RSI.Thats pretty much my technical knowledge that and I check the economic Calander each am and Bloomberg push messages and the daily email from ADVFN.your advice is much appreciated if you have time,if not I understand good luck all.

      1. One more thing I’m trading off a laptop,I don’t have four screens just small charts on my laptop and I sometimes have to flick from one chart to another,not ideal I know.

        1. Hi anstel, yes, I know that spread betting organisations are predatory arseholes, along with the rest of the financial services industry.
          One of the reasons I’m happy intraday trading is the huge relief of having no positions open when the market is closed or illiquid.
          Ref: indicators etc. just have a play with them, look at what they do and how best to interpret them.
          Rsi is my favourite and the more I use it the more feel I get for its signals.
          Lateral support/resistance areas are good, trendlines conventional but good, channels, fibonacci retracements etc. all useful.
          A cash chart is the actual market (FTSE, DOW,whatever) during its cash trading hours, not the derivative IG/City 24 hr equivalent.
          Indicators were originally designed to monitor and predict the human element in dealing, so I stick with the simpler ones.
          I use laptops to trade too, you can plug remote screens in the HDMI socket and drag charts across.

          Stay away from the ‘news’ for a while, just look at the numbers.
          Obviously bear in mind things could distort before or after a major event when trading, but ‘news’ in itself has no merit, it’s the way the market reacts that you’re after.
          That Bloomberg drivel is just noise.

          GL as always
          🙂

          1. Thanks very much for formatting such a comprehensive reply tmfp.i have saved your post and I’m going to address all the points mentioned.Im not trading I’m going to clear my mind exactly like you said.I havn’t paid my debt yet,I’m going to wait to see how they ask me to settle the account.I have friends that have told me to walk away and not trade again,they be right?on the other hand I have paid for two years experience in the market,I know I’m not a brilliant trader but I do have a lot of first hand experience. I think this is make or break really,Im going to get on with things I have ignored due to trading,catch up with them,then I’m going to write down all the things I have done that have caused me to take losses and blow up accounts,and all the good things I have done successfully that have worked and lastly what I need to improve on and formulate a plan accordingly.then lastly after a break decide if it’s a good idea to try again, I will keep an eye on the markets everyday so I can keep a feel for them and I will be around on Nicks site.Very best of luck as always.

  24. Arse – Think one of my graphics cards has gone – 2 screens down – difficult getting used to two screens…
    Thinking this is going to finish 6150 -6160

  25. Thanks danpollard.

    Which way you see things going? I’m predicting a drop tomorrow but staying long as I see 6300 before December.

    1. A drop is looking likely according to City Index, they say that retail sales drop off in October as everyone saves up for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. According to the poll on here most think the FTSE will finish up at 6500, which is broadly where it started the year. “They” always like to finish up on the year so it’s definitely possible. We still have the santa rally too.

      Andre Minassian thinks we’ll get 19,000 on the Dow and 7,000 on the FTSE…

      http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/andreminasisan/38346/the-game-plan-for-the-markets-from-here

    2. Hi hugh yes I’m still around but I’ve blown up my account,I had long positions on FTSE and Dow as you know and I was quite happy to hold them and all margins where covered till Friday evenings events happened.I took the decision to remove my resources from my account as I couldn’t close or hedge or liquidate thinking I would be closed out,I wasn’t and now I owe them money,see Friday’s message board and ^^^^^^^^^^ for details especially the Bit about liabilities and stops not worth a damn if it gaps down,If you read Friday’s posts and what I put today it’s all there,be very careful and read the small print from your SB provider,I will be around but I’m not going to trade,I need a break,best of luck I still have that email as well you posted.Best of luck.

      1. Anstel – Sorry to hear that. So it was the gap down that threw the spanner in..who were you with…(must have either been IG I’m thinking)

        1. I was with city Hugh, I put the resourses in to cover my weekend positions and I was quite happy then about 5 mins or so after close the Paris events took place,I envisaged the same thing happening that happened to me with the Greek crisis,I had a swing trade that was struggling but It opened 200 pts down I thought that if I removed my resources they would close me out at 80% margin.i did it to protect my capital or so I thought.it doesn’t work like that though.its another major setback .my first year I did great I made a substantial amount,then I blew it,then I got it all back again,then I blew it again,I can’t for the life of me get it back,I had been trying for a year,was making great progress when Greek crisis hit that Sunday night,then I got half back then August 23 etc I was doing great a week ago now it’s getting to a point where I have to stand back,I don’t want to stop trading,I enjoy it but I’m not good enough to keep my numbers in my net equity,I can build it up time and time again but I can’t find consistency ,it’s not lack of trying,I’m just not good enough, I might trade a demo account or possible a very small account with minimum stake,I just have to ask myself is it throwing good money after bad.good luck Hugh.

    1. Good on you Si for hangin in there,I wish I had,it’s all about decisions,I made the wrong call good luck.

        1. Gutted for you and what happened, doesn’t sound very fair. I’ve only got a noddy account where you deposit first and have guaranteed stops, it’d frighten me to death to have a big boys account and I know I’d be no good at at.

          Pretty sick that they waited until it was rising before closing you out.

  31. Just closed my long from Friday for a few hundred quid profit despite being almost 1.5k down at 630am this morning. Stressful this share trading!!

  32. Thanks mate. Still think if I had the balls it will keep going but the stress over the weekend was to much to handle. Been on a lucky run, need a break

  33. New here but I’ve been lurking for a while, always interesting to read about how others feel about things! I’ve been at it since the late 80’s and I haven’t got a clue about all this modern stuff, charts etc! I have to say, hats off to you guys who come out with a flat position daily and sleep well! I tend to put a position on, leave it and unwind when it feels right, not scientific! For what it’s worth I’m long and as of this morning at the wrong level! Good luck to all

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