Good morning. Another day and still Greece rumbles on. Not much to say really as its either going to be today or tomorrow when the deal is done or they default. A deal is near though apparently. As per usual its down to the wire. Anyway, the ECB left rates on hold and Draghi’s speech at the press conference was the precursor to the FTSE giving up the mornings gains. Gains that very nearly managed to reach the optimum sell at 6995 where we had the daily 25ema for the entry but fell just short, but keeping the daily chart bearish. A lot will depend on Greece as if a deal is suddenly announced I expect a spike upwards, especially as Greece’s PM is in Brussels today to meet Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The global bond rout gathered pace, with Japanese notes slipping a fourth day after Mario Draghi forecast faster euro-area inflation and continued market volatility. Australia’s dollar slid with Asian shares and oil.
Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbed 2 basis points to 0.48 percent by 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo, the highest level since November, while Australian yields topped 3 percent for the first time in three weeks. The Aussie declined 0.8 percent after data showed the nation’s exports fell in April. A measure of Chinese shares in Hong Kong erased gains of 2 percent to drop for a third day, as U.S. index futures decreased 0.2 percent. U.S. oil held below $60 a barrel before Friday’s OPEC meeting.
This year’s gains in global bonds evaporated as the European Central Bank chief inflamed a selloff in German bunds, saying price growth in the region would pick up further. Greece’s premier claimed to be near agreement with creditors, adding there was no need to worry about an International Monetary Fund payment due Friday. The U.S. reports jobless claims Thursday, before payrolls data at the end of the week.
Stocks
Asian stock indexes rose after a rebound in U.S. shares as investors speculated Greece will reach a deal with its creditors. Japan’s benchmark gauge climbed as the yen declined against the dollar.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded little changed at 150.23 as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.2 percent on Wednesday as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras pursued late-night talks with European officials in Brussels. Greece will near an agreement in the “next days,” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said, adding there was no need to worry about the first of four repayments due to the International Monetary Fund Friday.
“It would be quite a surprise if they didn’t reach an agreement on Greece,” Keith Poore, who helps manage $131 billion as head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Wellington, said by phone. “There’s scope for equities to rise further. Investors need to watch the volatility in bonds. Equity valuations don’t look stretched, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares still trading at pretty low levels. Valuations in Japan are higher but earnings are growing.”
Yields on 10-year Australian and New Zealand bonds climbed after Mario Draghi inflamed global bond losses, helping send 10-year German bund yields up another 17 basis points on Wednesday as the European Central Bank chief warned about ongoing volatility in the market and forecast faster inflation.
Regional Gauges
The Topix index added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.1 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong traded at 9.9 times estimated earnings on Wednesday, compared with 19.6 times for the Shanghai Composite Index. Japan’s Topix traded at 16.1 times expected profit.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed Wednesday little changed after changing direction 15 times, with 100-day volatility surging to the highest in more than five years. The equity benchmark has advanced more than 140 percent over the past 12 months.
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The underlying equity measure gained on Wednesday as banks and insurers rose with Treasury yields and investors speculated Greece will reach a deal with its creditors. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6944 so initial resistance there and looking at the moving averages we could get a move down to start the day to support at 6918 before a rise on hopes of a deal, though it still appears a bit of a deadlock. If the bulls can break through the 6944 area then the next main area of resistance is 6986 then the top of the 10 day Bianca at 7009. The 10 day Raff channel top is 7025 where we also have the daily T3 coral line so decent resistance there. We could well rise today on hopes of a deal. If the bears have other ideas then a decline to 6918 initially, then support below that is 6902 for the bottom of the 20 day channel then the 10 day at 6885. There is also the bottom of that 30minute channel lower down at 6870ish. In the absence of a deal I think shorting the rallies is a good move (as proven yesterday) though the choppy week continues!
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Very weak Open today.
really want to try a small long around here @55. can’t seem to pull trigger
really want to try a small long around here @55. can’t seem to pull trigger
Yep, looks like I missed my train. Don’t see much ideas for today, maybe to can a lousy long or something. Maybe US will resume short: I see S3 on 17844 – it’s a way to go. What ideas do you have?
Glad I didn’t take the long @55
If this carries on:
S3 is at 6809
and I have an expansion target at 6785 ish. (surely not today).
instead of: to can – to try.
You don’t usually run out of support levels by 9 o clock Nick 😉
I can’t see much about for the next 100 points, can you?
I wonder when we’ll close that 6925-6950 overnight gap…not for a while, maybe.
That 1 day 10 rsi I was wittering about the other day has now broken 37 support, currently 34.5, previous low 27.9 would equate to around 6760 depending on how it gets there.
Went long 6848 earlier, taken half at 6864. Could go anywhere!
I’ve made 8 points all morning 🙁
All I can see is a 66 topped wedge which should play within next half hour.
Prossibly a false upside break and then a sharp reversal if the mood of things so far is anything to go by.
Here we go….
Here we go….long the pullback of the break of 66, stop 58
b/e stop unenthusiastic to say the least
Wow, took 15 🙂
Long at 6844, looking for 6860
may add some at 6830, and stop for all at 6820 (just below standard pivot s3 at 6822)
closed out at 6854 for 10 pips, cant see 6860 coming before lunch unless news out from greece
meant above 60, but its trying now, might take a short here
Out at 6845, 14pips, that’ll do for me for the moment
Can you please explain why if news from Greece the market will have to go UP? What if it’s bad news?
Oh no meant if positive news from Greece then yes it will push up. Don’t think we can have more negative by lunch, as EU/IMF won’t have digested and come up with a response to Greece’s counter proposal (even if counter proposal is same as last one) as the cogs of the EU need to follow the same process each time.
What if negative news? I wonder when those news will be released after all? Fed up waiting. No trend for this reason.
Yes, that’s my thinking too, long atm @ 45, if we get through 60 maybe 80 on the cards.
tmpf, FTSE towards 6500 🙂 or is this trap 😉 ?
Not a clue mate 🙂
It certainly has the potential for 6760 this week imo. I’m just sticking to my scalping.
I’d be looking to short a bounce to 6880/90 this morning, but got to get through 60 first.
6885 may be possible. DAX 11200 held well for now. let us see whether it bounce back here.
Taken that long at 6855.
Out at 50 the 1min has a fall off the cliff feel about it
any support below 6840? it would be nice only if i hold my short 🙁
Short at 52 stop 64 looking to add on a break of 40
and stopped out. Must learn to control my bearish impulses lol.
Still think there’s more selling to come from DAX which will pull us down.
Suppose I’d better look to buy this pullback to 60 short term then.
I think someone watching you closely.
What, you mean like some sort of supernatural deity Senu?
The God of Scalpers, maybe?
He’s being a little capricious if He is, guided my every move Monday, couldn’t hit a barn door with a shovel Tuesday, alright yesterday but all over the place today.
🙁
Glad I didn’t get tempted into longing that, looks rubbish again.
Strong support at 6840. Bounce back to close at 6900.
Just a feeling for a rise till pivot 🙂
That’s a big call Sharma, I take it you’re long around here then? 😉
lets see ! only greece can make us happy .. 😛
haha… 🙂 i wish it goes there. I am holding a 7000 call
Is the Greece deal not already factored into the pricet? I think the market may not shoot up as much as everyone would like.
Regarding Greece, anyone meeting anywhere anytime today for anything?
Please update. Thanks.
They’ll cobble something together with Greece, kick the can down the road, rally then selloff probably.
More important real fundamental imo is China, if their credit bubble bursts that will echo round the world.
25% of FTSE is energy and mining.
good call
7300 this summer before the bubble bursts
6920 by 4.30pm
Bounced well from 75 off today’s uptrend line and now in a bit of clear air around 93, could stay strong into the close.
Small long here.
I wonder if that was just to take few longs out of the stop/loss!!
I suppose both.
what do you think jack will this stay or go back to morning figures?
Look at Dow, there you will see how shortes and longers got stopped out. Longers when it popped at 17956 at 2.37 and shorters when it popped up at 18088 at 3.03. Now it’s in the middle and who knows who won: bears or bulls. Looks like bears but definitely not me, cos I lost 30 quid on this ordeal. Was waiting for short ages with my 18001 short, was annoyed with this entry, gave up and closed with tiny loss at 18012 (but the stake was x4), then took long, nearly lost my pants, but eventually recovered to -30 quid for today, which was the best result after losses. I can live with it for today.
5 min rsi got a bit hot around 12 but nothing broken stop to b/e
and out. Should have sold the high rsi like I normally do 🙁
Back long at 84 trendline/rsi.
That DOW’s a bit crazy..
took 8 on that, not impressed with the action, a sell off into the close isn’t out of the question, especially if 80 breaks.
Uptrendline still holding atm.
If it melts down to >60 before 16.15 worth a quick long
out at 75 enough for me
Dow started annoying me lately with their clearing the space actions.
FTSE falling with dow and not recovering with DAX
6844 gone, what next Nick?
DAX and FTSE melting down 🙂 went long @30 for 6900 tomorrow, stop 6810
better no stop for now. guys any swing traders here?
I hope we have seen the low for now !:(
🙂 yes. for now, for today. also for tomorrow if not broken in the first hour. just my view.
Brave men, good luck.
Just got +33 points on basic stake as a surprise towards the close. 🙂
Bloody hell what a whipsaw day. Nearly lost my entire account this morning! When it came flooding back I bailed on some £pp which was good for the drop back down but after the close was brutal. Careful of the after hours swing along especially at 7am tomorrow. Some dirty tactics will be on show also 7.58am!