Spread betting – Support 6831, 6824, 6808, 6790, 6782 Resistance 6862, 6864, 6892, 6975, 7059

Good morning. Well, fancy a gamble? Didn’t expect that bit of news after we got the decent bounce from the 6844 area – at least managed to get a few long points from that rise. The concern is if Greece can’t/won’t pay an instalment will they have enough to pay all four instalments in one go at the end of June. We also have NFP out today in the US just to continue the theme of trying to guess whats going to happen!

U.S. stocks fell to the lowest level in a month as the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the American economy before Friday’s jobs report. Treasuries gained as the debt selloff paused, while oil tumbled.Greece asked the IMF if it could bundle its four payments for June into one due at the end of the month, after another round of talks with creditors failed in forging a deal. The Washington-based lender reduced its U.S. growth outlook for the second time this year, urging the Federal Reserve to hold off on raising interest rates this year with the government’s monthly payrolls report due Friday. The bond market stabilized following a selloff ignited by signs of a euro-area recovery.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell for a fifth day, with the regional benchmark index heading for its second week of losses, following a decline in U.S. equities as Greece asked for a deferral on its debt payments.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 148.85 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for a 1.7 percent decline this week amid a selloff in bonds and commodities. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped on Thursday as raw-material producers slid and Greece became the first country since the 1980s to defer a payment to the International Monetary Fund. While international officials have reported some progress in the talks in recent days, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they were far from reaching a conclusion.

“The market selloff isn’t over given the huge moves we’ve seen this week in the bond markets,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “Greece delaying debt payments is definitely not positive. There’s a lot of pressure on asset prices that’s really related to the bond market moves.”

The global bond rout, reignited this week by signs of inflation in the euro area, took a breather on Thursday, with 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising for the first time this week. Germany’s 10-year bund yields reached almost 1 percent before pulling back to 0.84 percent, while rates from Spain to Italy retreated.

Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index sank 0.4 percent, as did South Korea’s Kospi index. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

China Rally
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8 percent on Thursday after changing direction at least 10 times. The ChiNext index fell from a record after Golden Sun Securities Co. suspended margin loans for the stocks amid concern that gains have gone too far, too fast.

Record growth in margin debt helped add more than $4 trillion to the value of Chinese shares this year, raising concern among some investors that valuations are reaching excessive levels. Bill Gross took to Twitter on Wednesday to say shares on the technology-heavy Shenzhen bourse are the next big trade for short sellers. The gauge fell 0.6 percent Thursday from an all-time high.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent today. The underlying equity measure dropped 0.9 percent to a four-week low on Thursday. The IMF cut its U.S. growth forecast and said the Fed should hold off from raising interest rates until the first half of 2016. The government’s monthly employment data are due today, and economists predict the economy added 225,000 jobs in May, compared with April’s 223,000.

Crude was poised to snap its 11-week surge amid speculation OPEC will refrain from cutting output at its meeting in Vienna on Friday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction for Spreadbetting
FTSE 100 Prediction for Spreadbetting

We have the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) news at 13:30 today which will move the market, and things are pretty jittery as you saw with the fall following that announcement that Greece are going to bundle their payments. Todays pivot is 6864, and we have the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel there which we may well back test having broken below it yesterday afternoon. I think a short at this area is worth a go. Support initially is at 6831 where we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel, but the S&P EMAs have now gone bearish so I am still expecting that to drop to 2085. The bottom of the 20 day Raff is 6806 and the bottom of the 10 day is 6785. With the bottom of the 30minute channel at 6780 we may well hold that area so could be worth a risky long there if so inclined (i.e. want a gamble!)

If you are looking for help with spread betting then please consider signing up

36 Comments

  1. So Greece will not pay. Does it mean they will continue falling now?
    Good I removed my long orders for now.

  2. Uber bear this morning, still looking for 6760 this week (today).
    Big shorts (for me) in 30’s, happy to stick with them, but would rethink if we get to 40+.
    11200 on Dax looks like it’s a line in the sand, maybe 500 point hole underneath.
    Poor NFP could be the catalyst for a meltdown….or, I could be completely wrong 🙂

        1. I had to go out, a good example of why I do 3 confirm manual stops
          I’m sure they wait for me 🙁

  3. How you doing Senu and Sharma? I see you were thinking of longing last night, did you resist the temptation?

  4. Thanks tmpf for asking Still holding but small long as I normally trust ichimokuand bollinger bands but doesn’t mean can’t be wrong lets see I will be short after 6790 may be lets see good luck everyone !

  5. Shocker. Had to close out a monstrous loss. Any more and I would have a deposit for the house I’m buying. Went from the best trade of my life only a week ago to my two worst in the last few days. Now will have to wait a few months to claw funds together. When I see the ftse at 7,200 in 3 weeks with everyone on cnbc saying it was obvious to buy the dip, Greece being a blip etc I’ll be fuming! Good luck all

    1. Unlucky. Trade with some pay money, develop a good risk/reward system so you’re ready for the next try.
      Good luck with the house.

    2. I lost a fortune in my early days. Switched to trading daily and weekly candles never looked back. Look up risk reward . Take small losses and run winners. Using ETFs easier to operate than spread bet companies, who are adept at triggering stop losses by widening the spread for a few seconds. cant win with those guys. Forget indicators and systems only trade price and one candle with stop loss defined. easier to trade bigger stakes this way too. Im short FTSE just under 7000 using SUK2 double leverage ETF much easier to runbthan a spread bet. I only have the 200 ema on my chart which is currently support for FTSE. My current stop is 6920, hoping to hit 6500 if 200ema turns to resistance. had two previous attempts at shorting FTSE around 7000 which lost about 80 pips in total so currently up 100 pips but orepared to lose them to gain a monster profit. Just sayin.

  7. That dip down to 6784 touched the bottom of the parallel channel. Trying a small long.

  8. It’s hard to long in this environment. By the way Dow now at 17888 (just about) where I longed yesterday and got +33 points. Don’t encourage or anything. It may not hold.

    1. I agree Jack. 6784 is also a good fib level on the hourly for a potential bottom of the FTSE. NFP at 1.30pm might encourage a bullish spell. My stop is at 6775, long at 6795 – only looking for 6825.

      1. I think the only thing which worked before for me is to put short orders in a grid between 17900-18000 or even higher and harvest whatever get triggered at the end of the day.

          1. It’s possible and would make a nice bullish hammer on the daily. Just feels a stretch too far at the moment. Are the bulls going to want hold over the w/e?

  9. Still bearish, but have taken profit on 1/2 of my shorts, May have a run up to 20 before non farms, look to replace around there.

    1. There’s better resistance around 6839-40. Have a sneaking suspicion we may see a surprise rise this pm. It’s very unusual for the FTSE to miss hitting its closing price two days in a row (not impossible though). It would of course be typical to take out all the stops on people’s shorts.

      1. Fair comment ZZ, I have 6820 tagged as a 30% retracement 6914/6785.
        I see NFPs over estimate by 55k, no reaction…
        I have also become a bit unhealthily fixated on a meltdown to 6760 this pm…..maybe the jaws of the bear trap are closing around me. 🙂

        1. Might see 6760 Monday morning before a rise? I’m also wondering if the plunge protection team might act this pm to avoid the weekly candle looking too ugly? Still hanging on to my longs (by a thread!)

          1. You guys are drawing me into bad habits, I was quite happy making money with my average 17 minute scalps, this last couple of weeks I’ve been taking day long views with mixed results.
            If these shorts go t*ts up and we don’t see 60 today then I’ll have a hard think over the weekend.
            If it ain’t broke don’t fix it; I’ve been drawn into the greed trap before with an unhappy ending.

    2. Didn’t quite make it…..what to do? Took a scalping short at 14, think I’ll keep that for later, stop on everything at 30.

  10. If Dow decides to repeat yesterday’s activity then a spike to 17956 is on the cards. But personally would like to start shorting at 17925.

    1. But as we are familiar with nasty activity on Dow, the shoot to 18036 would be the one (nasty activity). Hope that won’t happen.

  11. And the last shake of this bear’s dice today, added a little more at 22, stop on all at 30

    1. And that’s me all out, 11 points to the bad overall 🙁
      Not even going to hang about and see it collapse, time for some fresh air.
      Good weekend all
      🙂

      1. Well done … well got my 6825 eventually (though closed early as I was getting sea-sick with all the up and down motion.) Maybe we’ll get 6760 on Monday?

Comments are closed.