Overnight rise on strong Asia and Super Tuesday result relief. FTSE100 6230 resistance

Support 6198 6140 6131 6077 5962
Resistance 6228 6243 6252 6282 6294

Market Summary for Tuesday 1st March 2016
Earlier in the day, the market got support after China’s manufacturing sector shrank more sharply than expected in February, raising hopes that authorities in Beijing would announce further stimulus measures. A case of “Bad news is good news”!
Later U.S. factory and housing data came in better than expected and oil prices rose giving a further leg up to the markets.
The leading sector was Insurers on good trading statements and the weakest were banks (on poor figures from Barclays) and a some commodities including gold.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Copper leads gains in industrial metals as crude oil falls
  • Share indexes jump more than 2% in Australia, China, Japan

A global equities rally gained momentum in Asian trading and emerging-market currencies strengthened as economic data from the U.S. and Australia spurred risk-taking. Copper rose and gold fell.

Asian stocks jumped the most in two weeks, led by gains in Japan. Australia’s dollar rose against all major peers and its bonds tumbled as economic growth beat estimates. The offshore yuan weakened after China’s central bank lowered the currency’s reference rate and Moody’s Investors Service cut the outlook on the nation’s credit rating. Oil fell for the first time this week after data showed American stockpiles increased. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced as results of the so-called Super Tuesday U.S. presidential candidate contests came in.

“We are getting a bit of stability in markets,” Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees about $115 billion, said by phone. “Most of the panic is behind us. People are underestimating just how much ammunition central banks have. U.S. growth is slow but steady.”

American factory activity in February shrank less than forecast, data last session showed, burnishing the outlook for the world’s largest economy as China loosens monetary policy to revive growth in the second-biggest. While global stocks are recovering from a four-month losing streak, elevated prices for haven assets including U.S. Treasuries, gold and the yen are a sign many investors have yet to be convinced that the rally will be sustained.
MSCI Inc.’s world equity index has gained almost 8 percent since sinking to a 2 1/2-year low in the middle of last month, spurred by oil’s rebound from the lowest price in more than decade. It’s still down about 5 percent for the year.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 2.9 percent as of 11:54 a.m. Tokyo time, headed for its highest close in almost two months, as all 10 industry groups advanced. Japan’s Topix jumped 3.8 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 2.6 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.3 percent.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co. soared as much as 35 percent in Hong Kong after agreeing to buy out the remaining stake in Snow Breweries, its Chinese joint venture with SABMiller Plc, for $1.6 billion. The deal will help smooth the way for Anheuser-Busch InBev NV’s takeover of SABMiller.
S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.2 percent following the U.S. benchmark’s 2.4 percent surge last session. Hillary Clinton dominated Democratic Party primary contests held on Tuesday, beating rival Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump boosted his chances of securing the Republican Party presidential nomination.

A surprise, strong showing for Sanders “would have upset markets” by reducing the likelihood of Clinton becoming the next president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, wrote in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as “an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders,” he said.

Currencies
The Aussie strengthened for a third day, climbing 0.8 percent versus the greenback. Australia’s commodity-dependent economy expanded 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous period, faster than the 0.4 percent growth forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Indonesia’s rupiah advanced for the 10th day in a row, the longest winning streak in six years. India’s rupee climbed for a fourth day, its best run of gains this year.

The yuan weakened 0.07 percent in offshore trading after the People’s Bank of China cut its daily reference rate for the currency to a four-week low. The onshore rate rose 0.04 percent. Moody’s cited the drop in China’s foreign-currency reserves and increasing government debt for its decision to cut the outlook on the country’s Aa3 credit rating to negative from stable.

Bonds
Australia’s 10-year bonds tumbled, pushing their yield 12 basis points higher to 2.47 percent. The rate on similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries was little changed at 1.83 percent, after surging nine basis points on Tuesday.

Commodities
Crude oil fell 1.5 percent to $33.90 a barrel, retreating from an eight-week high. U.S. inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Government data Wednesday is also forecast to show supplies expanded, keeping stockpiles at the highest level in more than eight decades.

“Any rally that we see will be subdued because of the large crude inventory,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “We really need to see production cuts if we’re going to get any sustained gain in oil.”

Copper led gains in industrial metals, rising 0.8 percent in London. Codelco, the world’s biggest copper producer, expects a global surplus will persist through next year and recent price gains are unlikely to be sustained, Chairman Oscar Landerretche said in an interview. Glencore Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg said Tuesday that he now sees commodity prices bottoming.

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,227.60 an ounce. It’s still up 16 percent for the year and reached a 12-month high of $1,263.48 in February. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have managed to test and hold above the 6200 area overnight, helped by the bullish Asia session. I am expecting a test of the 6230 area next which is where we have the 10 day Bianca channel top, and also R1 for today. Support initially is just below 6200 so a long here to start the day should work well. If the bears defend the 6230 are then a dip down towards 6140 looks likely as we have the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour which has been good support recently. The thought of stimulus has certainly helped the markets push on from that 5500 low the other week, and the pullback to 5850 last week, and is still looking pretty bullish. I have plotted the blue arrows on the chart as my preferred route for today but if the bulls break 6230 then I expect us to reach 6282 (pink arrows) before a leg down from there instead. This is R2 and also the top of that rising 30min channel.

103 Comments

  1. Morning!

    I went long at 6191.1 at about 7.45am for reasons that I may well be complaining about later, involving CNBC, IG, and the Guardian’s Business Live blog.

    I made a couple of ill-conceived trades yesterday and lost a lot of my previous gains, although I have learned quite a bit about what you can and can’t rely upon (news etc) when planning trades.

    Good luck today everyone.

    1. Morning, and the same to you.
      I’ve never been happy with a blend of TA, fundamentals and news/opinion trading, it’s between the devil and the deep blue sea for me.
      Much kudos for your thorough approach to trading so far, (do you also fold your socks 😉 ) , but trying experimenting with a news and opinion blackout for a while, just pure TA and see how that goes.

      1. Where socks are concerned I drift between folding and rolling, but never balling (one of the twin always suffers unfairly during balling). Either way, I do monitor their whereabouts at all times, and check them in and out of danger areas such as the washing machine.

        Regarding trading, I’ve been trying not to become disillusioned with things, as I have been spending a lot of time planning and researching before each trading day. I’ve been thinking about what I’ve been doing wrong, and I think it’s a mixture of things, all to do with a lack of experience. I’ll type them out and post them later in case any other beginners are reading this and may find it helpful.

          1. Morning Hugh, yeah back to basics here too, I’ve carefully folded my red braces and put them in the bottom drawer.
            Decided to have a multi period stochastic day, got more charts up at the mo than the ancient mariner.

          2. Wondering if we’re bouncing here off the a 50% retracement of 6106 – Yesterday’s open there abouts. So natural up and down pattern would be an upleg to 6180-85
            (50% of top and 6160 area)

    2. The worse time to enter 7.45 (before open the spread is worse). Plus I would have never gone long there. There’s no indication, EMA crossed for down, I would wait.

        1. That’s my lack of experience again. I didn’t know that. I was acting according to the news articles before market open. Having subsequently read Nick’s predictions I thought I was in at an advantage, with 6200, 6230 and 6282 being talked about (and 6200/6211 also being talked about in the media before market open).

          1. Morning FGS……..I would suggest not paying too much attention to the news articles…..too much BS.and from someone who has probably made all the mistakes I would say if you have some early success be very very careful of overconfidence.Best of luck.

          2. Take the advice from tmfp, just block out this news bulls..t and you will do much better. For me all the news is a distraction.

          3. I don’t understand how news would help identify the direction. They are paid to write something so they do, it doesn’t reflect anything. I never read any news before trading, I don’t see the need of that. All I need to know is when is NFP, FOMC or any other major news. I don’t care what the numbers comes out, all I need to know: WHEN. So that I’m there are the computer to press the button. I value Nick’s chart to give me a quick update on the situation but I don’t get into details.
            You are in the starting stage of a trader when they still read a lot of analitics. But all what matters is Price action and your strategy (when to enter and money management)
            According to Nick’s numbers. The price may and will probably get to 6200, 6230 and even 6282 but he didn’t say when. It doesn’t mean it will get Right Now when you read his prediction. The price likes to suck in as much long stops before moving higher. Look for crossovers, exits of trend lines, etc.
            What I regret I didn’t go short at 9.16 on dax when I was looking at this thinking, it’s a bit risky after such rise yesterday. But looking for a good long entry is better.

          4. Thank you both. I have noted this latest advice, along with all the other advice, so today will probably be my last media-based trading day.

            I’ve just typed out my experiences in a (quite long) post, which I’ll post below, in case it’s of any interest.

    1. Morning alll,Morning anstel,Tonights draw is from Machine Mark and the prize for all Lucky Punters is an Epic 13.2 Points.

      1. Thanks WSF just something I wanted to bare in mind if I go short ftse.im trading off my new play station handset.it works much better when it’s virtual reality :0)

  2. Morning All,

    As I mentioned yesterday, 845 was hit on Dax this morning. My long from 9143 was closed this morning at 843 with a limit order for a good 700 points (approx £3.4K profit after trading costs) my highest winner on a single trade. No 1000 point run this time. I still expect 10K but I tentatively put the limit in because I expected a bit of pullback before 10K. The plan is to buy any dips around 630-670 area.

  3. Here are my experiences and findings so far, some of which may be of help to other beginners. Apologies for the long post.

    I seem to have had the most success with (and feel most comfortable with) watching price movements on the 5-minute chart whilst in a trade, with a look at the 3-minute for entry and exit. The 15-minute I use for a more general view. Yesterday I was trying to do the same thing on the 1-minute chart, but the relative volatility was constantly on the verge of scaring me out of the trade when it went in the opposite direction momentarily. I think this frame of mind caused me to take the safe option and close trades when I was small amounts in profit, then thinking how lucky I was not to have lost anything.

    My losses have generally been disproportionately larger than my gains. All my losses (including that first £1495.00 short loss that also caught out some others on here) have been as a result of acting upon news items and predicted market opening levels, or anticipating falls near closing. Yesterday, market open was called to be 45 points lower, and everything in the media (overnight etc) seemed negative. I went short before 8.00am to capture this supposed fall, and it opened 34 points higher, putting me in trouble immediately. I waited for it to fall back and managed to get out with a gain of 3.3 points.

    Next, I lost £110.00 by going long, noting the positive movement contrary to the news. I combined that with a doji/higher close signal, entered, then it went straight down until I exited at my limit of minus 10-ish points. My limit was below the previous low. Having thought about it, I think these losses are so large because I have to wait until my loss limit is reached (obviously), but I’m doing that in trades during market price action that doesn’t offer a favourable risk/reward ratio due to a small range. I’m also doing this on the 1-minute chart that also has me on the verge of being scared out of each trade. So, I persevered with this and for the above-mentioned reason, I had a series of winning trades of relatively small amounts, recovering most of my earlier £110.00 loss.

    Because that series of trades sort of worked (1-minute chart), I tried to anticipate a late sell-off (due to the negative news) and waited near closing for a fall. A sudden fall occurred so I immediately went short at around 4.25pm, caught what turned out to be the bottom of it and watched it go straight back up to where it started, and more, at which point I exited with a £160.00 loss.

    Due to the predicted open of 6200 (CNBC) or 6211 (IG), and the overwhelmingly positive Guardian Business Live blog entries before market open (which are continuing as I type), I went long at 6191.1, then waited for the big jump up to 6200 or 6211. We had a big rise on opening yesterday, against a predicted big fall, on the basis of negative overnight and early-morning news (which I had shorted), so I thought it must be a certainty of the predicted rise occurring on the basis of the overwhelmingly positive pre-opening news stories today. So, what happened? It did the opposite and went down, and is currently 6048 as I type and my long is miles out. I can hardly believe that the news stories I read whilst planning today’s trade is actually describing the same index I’m looking at!

    Guardian blog: ‘City traders can leave their tin hats at home today, because shares are going up.’ And, ‘ . . . European shares are going to follow, adding to yesterday’s gains . . . . ‘ So, I’m about £300.00 down at the moment, thanks partly to all my research! I’m inclined to hang on for this supposed rise today, although I’m prepared to lose another £300.00 if that’s going to be the best option. It won’t kill me, nor will I lose too much sleep over it, but it seems a shame for it to happen despite all my preparations.

          1. Thanks, I think I need some luck today.

            My initial confidence (when I was only watching price action to plan and enter/exit trades) has gone, and the last couple of days has me feeling that I hope I get away with it, each time I’m in a trade, which is obviously the wrong frame of mind to be in!

    1. 1. Medis reacts on what have already happened. They never predict the future. Sometimes it even means the opposite: if it’s already on the news it’s time to change the direction (but I said, sometimes)
      2. You need to be £1 pp for a year. Forget about £10.
      I’ve never tried £10 after 5 years of trading, so I didn’t lose a lot, maybe 3-4 grand. Others may have lost 50 grand. When you will make a 1000 points profit with £1 then you can try £2. Why I said so? After many disasters I’ve had it’s the only thing that helped me survive. I’ve traded £3-4pp for 2-3 years thinking I’ve got an experience now, but I had the most losses on those. Because I was out of my comfort zone and wanted to win every trade and didn’t want to close losing trades (it’s hard to get rid of this habit). £1 gives you peace of mind. Do you think I don’t want to stake £10? Of course I do, but I can’t, I’m not ready for it. And when I do, I will.
      2. There’s nothing wrong with 1min. I use it all the time along with 10 min, then I look at 1 hour (30min if I fancy) and daily for overalls. It takes time to get used to 1min but after years I see the overall direction rather than small fluctaions. I started with 3min but prefer 1min now. 5min? I’ve never personally liked it. Basically, you choose such a time frame at which you are comfortable, but experiment by switching, searching for the best comfortability. For me 1 and 10. Then you get used to what you chose.
      3. I don’t like trades before close (late evening) and before open. Reasons: worse spread, if you are short you have to pay overnight fees and face deduction of divi sometimes, you cannot sleep well because you think about your trade where SL cannot guarantee to save you, sudden news may get your position into an unfair red.
      4. You need to invest time learning about price formations: Impulse, retrace, continuation. Trend lines, support and resistance levels. Fibonacci levels. Indicatiors like EMA, MACD, Stochastic, RSI. There’s others parabolic, bollinger bands, vix etc. whatever fits your strategy.
      DO YOU HAVE A STRATEGY OR JUST GO ON NEWS? DO YOU HAVE ANY INDICATORS ON YOUR CHARTS?
      Strategy is the set of rules which develop with experience, write them down and summarize. At first it could be a plain jotting, then added with details. Look for the main points that make your strategy work.
      5. Watch youtube for other traders videos.

      1. Thank you for typing all that for me. It’s such a great help as there are plenty of things mentioned for me to read up on.

        I had no idea I was being so stupid with the bet amounts. Actually I thought £25.00 was a bit stupid, but thought £10.00 would be manageable (evidently not though).

        On my charts I have 10, 25 and 200 EMA, Volume (20), Stochastics (14, 3, 1), and MACD (12, 26, 9). I’ve read about a dozen trading books over the last year, and am currently reading John Person’s book ‘Candlestick and Pivot Point Trading Triggers’, which I think will steer me in a slightly different variatio of indicators from those I have just mentioned. I think he sets his moving averages up using pivot point values, but I haven’t got to the stage of looking into how to do that yet.

        Initally I didn’t go by the news at all, and I was comfortable watching prices for all of my information. I only branched out into the various news sources as an attempt to be thorough, as I have been getting up early to research everything thoroughly before the market opens. I’ve also been keeping a running commentary in a word file, with all my thoughts, predictions, trades and ideas etc.

        I think this has been a relatively cheap lesson overall then, as I’ve only lost just over £1800.

        Thanks again for your post; I really appreciate the help and advice.

    2. Hi FGS

      Fascinating post.

      If you’re trading the news I would look towards larger time frames or individual shares. If you insist on trading the 3, 5 and 10 min charts you should do this purely based on price action. When the market is opening up higher the news you’ve just read is already priced into the market and its priced in less than 5 seconds after the news event! It’s a dangerous game too – bad news is effectively good news at the moment and is sending the market up. This won’t always be the case so trying to second guess when this will or won’t change will send you mad. You’ve probably heard it a million times but if the financial journalists were any good then they would be trading and making a loads of cash.

      Trading out of hours is not to be recommended either. The spreads are wider, support and resistance levels are made-up out-of-hours levels and don’t have any bearing on real market price action. If anything, waiting until the market has opened and settled down is the best option. The price bounced off a few levels yesterday for 2 or 3 reversal trades and then broke out for a classic breakout trade. Really good day for straightforward trading.

      I’d watch that risk reward too. % of account etc, it all needs work.

      1. Thanks for your post Dan.

        I’m definitely leaning towards those short timescale charts, and the pure price action approach does feel right, so perhaps I should persevere.

        I’ve obviously overlooked a lot of things with the out-of-hours and early/late market-hours situation. I got a bit confused with yesterday’s levels etc as it didn’t comply with my pivot point figures. I’m going to have a short break to re-set, then start again.

        Thanks again.

        1. Hey FGS

          I’ve spoken on here quite a few times about out-of-hours data and pivots. You need the pivots from livecharts.co.uk as they use data from 8am-4:30pm. IG provide pivots based on 24 hour data which is effectively useless. This is most evident on Monday’s when the pivots take into account Sunday trading where virtually nothing happens and the pivots are within a couple of points of each other. The people who move markets – hedge funds, investment banks etc aren’t looking at spreadbet data. They just use real time data with proper pivots. You also need to plot support and resistance levels using real market data. (charts on investing.com are ok and free) You may see the market just plummet through S and R levels – that’s because they were effectively ‘made-up’ out of hours and aren’t being looked at by the big players. I hope that helps.

          1. Thanks for that. I’ll persevere with the Live Charts pivot points then. The standard ones appear to the the same as the ones I was calculating on John Person’s website calculator, so I may as well look at the ones already calculated on Live Charts.

            The only other support and resistance lines I was using formed the longer-term downtrend channel, which was what got me into trouble when I had the resistance line in the wrong place (around 6000), and then we seem to have broken above that when I was expecting precisely the opposite and a fall back down to 5500-ish to continue that zig-zag movement dating back to around November.

  4. Wondering if we’re bouncing here off the a 50% retracement of 6106 – Yesterday’s open there abouts. So natural up and down pattern would be an upleg to 6180-85
    (50% of top and 6160 area)

  5. I’ve added a 6141.1 stop to my 6191.1 long, so I won’t lose more than £500 today. If that happens then so be it and I’ll move forward with some more experience, and will avoid making this mistake again.

    If this happens I’ll still have £1481.00 left, so I’ll still have something to work with and build back up gradually.

    1. Stopped out at 11.16am, 6141.1 for a £500 loss. Marvellous!

      I have just paused briefly to glance again at my media research sources and laugh at them like Tom Hanks did in The Money Pit when his bath fell through the floor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2rVcxkbIQc) and now I will move on.

      I’ve actually got £1487 left, so it must have slipped slightly in my favour. Now let’s watch the market go back up to above 6200!

      1. Just an observation, when you have a 2K account and start new £10pp is high stake. You can reduce your stake until you double your account and increase it thereafter. Don’t be in a hurry to recover all your losses, in that process you will only lose more.

        Nick’s spreadsheet is a good example, with all the experience that Nick has, Nick started with £5pp until the account grew to 4K before increasing the position size.

        1. Thank you, I’m going to act on this advice and limit things to £5.00 for the foreseeable future. I can see the wisdom in this as I initially started with £25.00 trades, which helped me to a spectacular loss of £1495, before I came to my senses and only lost £500 with the help of £10.00 trades.

          I’m seriously considering investing £50 per month on site membership here with the hope that I can get some guidance and turn things around. I’m confident that I’ve got the potential to do well with this, but I need to limit all these beginner’s mistakes before I waste all my money. Perhaps I should use this as a goal and invest the first £50 of each month’s gain in some enlightenment (assuming that I do actually gain each month!).

        2. Agree with what RJ says re stake/equity %.
          Conventional wisdom, take it or leave it, says no more than 2%, maybe 5% tops, of risk to capital. That means if you’re going to run 50 pt stops with £2k, a stake of £2 pp is appropriate.
          Your 50 pt stop @ £10 was 25% of your total. That’s 2 in the morning casino stuff.

          Also as we’ve discussed before, a trade isn’t a trade unless it initially incorporates a stop, otherwise it’s impossible to calculate R/R.
          Placing a stop after the entry, solely based on what you’re prepared/can afford to lose and with no technical justification, isn’t a habit you want to get into.

          1. Thank you again. All advice has been gratefully received and taken seriously.

            I knew what I was getting into with all this, and didn’t expect for a moment that I was going to be an exception to the statistics, so I’m treating all this as part of the learning process.

      2. Remarkable laugh (never seen this film before, I want to watch it now)
        I think you would benefit from Nick’s service, he can advise you a lot.
        Thank goodness for reducing to £5, but I still cannot afford it with my over 2 grand account. LOL

  6. Morning All! Firstly, nice one RJ, against pretty much everyone else’s thoughts, great work!
    FGS – Just reading your posts, simply you must remember that anything written in the paper was written hours and hours ago. Being a cynic, there are many people higher up in the food chain who will have read it before it gets printed!
    For me, I’m still looking at “Dave” my short. He is getting close to being thrown out with the dishwater but is hanging on by his fingertips but following the addition at ’70 yesterday will not be getting any more friends.

    1. I’m a bit stupid really as I did quite well before I started paying too much attention to the media.

      Sorry to hear that Dave is on shaky ground. My short was called Lucy. I thought I had better go that way with the name as I was anticipating taking her home for the weekend and wanted to get my money’s worth. In the event I killed her on Friday, but she was nice whilst it lasted.

  7. FGS, the reply to the last post to me above.
    If you give me your e-mail I can send you 2 books which helped me the most on which my strategy generally based. I can give you some info. But you need to analize info and see what you like and wish to use. The strategy is what you think works the best for your trade and brings you profit.
    I got lots of info like that.

    1. That’s very kind, thank you. Is there a way of passing e-mail addresses through PM or something? I can’t see a PM option.

      Actually, I may well have the books already as I’ve got a hell of a digital library (all PDF files), with a cart-load of trading books. Which ones are you thinking of? I think I’ve got all of the top-rated publications (technical; psychology etc) – the ones that crop up as recommended in reviews and on forums/blogs etc.

      I could share mine too if anyone is after anything specific.

          1. Prior to my new strategy of inadvertently throwing money away with the help of the media, I was using a strategy that involved looking for a doji candle to form in an uptrend, then waiting for a lower closing low (below the low of the doji) and entereing a short. I was then exiting when the trend reversed and the green candle closed above the high of the previous low. Once I had entered a short, the stop was a couple of points above the high of the doji candle that I used as an entry trigger.

            I don’t know whether it was down to chance, but I had no losing trades using that method. Once I began ‘improving’ my method by preparing ‘properly’ with additional media research, it all went wrong and cost me getting on for £2000.

            I’m now going back to my original method as a basis, and any improvements will probably be based upon technical values rather than fundamentals.

      1. Did you read: Robert Fischer – Candlesticks Fibonacci and Chart Pattern Trading Tools? It helps in general.

        1. Ahh good, I’ve got that one but hadn’t read it! I’ll start that when I’ve finished my current one.

          1. That was an example of good news is bad news,ADP unemployment was 214k at 13.15 against 185k expected.

  8. I just re read what Carney said last week about going to 0 with U.K Interest rates if etc etc and he specifically said that going below 0 would damage Building Societies,so fwiw I checked the Building Society share of the Housing mkt and it seems to be about 80% which I guess means we can take his word as his bond,Arthur Daley Golden handshake status,thinking there is also the aging population as a voting block not taking the minus number well too,although they seem to have been very quiet about losing their interest income,thought I’d share that in case anyone else is reading all this negative interest rate talk this morning.

    1. Thanks WSF – I think I read somewhere Lower (<0) Interest Rates was going to be good for mattresses..

  9. Just a few thoughts….on the DAILY CHART
    Remembering that we’ve broken the trend line at 6047.
    Not always a great idea to buy the break but better to buy on the pull back…
    So may be a revisit of 6047 – 6000.
    And also there’s one more GAP to fill 5735 – 5787.
    However, all of this is of no consequence if we can’t breach 50% of yesterday’s 150 odd point move.
    (So needs to close below 6109 approx.)
    http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=v2hnmuu1x3u6tfkws06fz604p&type=png&purpose=file

    1. Dax was putting a lot more effort in than the FTSE,maybe the Barc thing and Mining co’s looking to refinance.Guessing its all down to the US now.

  10. Hello all…newbie here….but been reading this forum for months now!
    How do you send members direct mails?
    As I’d like to share my email addy if there are any books/tips going re Jack2 and FGS thread above!

        1. Dear Mr. Sir tmfp,
          REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE-STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
          I am Dr. Bakare Tunde, the cousin of Nigerian Astronaut, Air Force Major Abacha Tunde. He was the first African in space when he made a secret flight to the secret Soviet military space station Salyut 8T in 1989. He was stranded there in 1990 when the Soviet Union was dissolved.
          In the 26-years since he has been on the station, he has accumulated flight pay and interest amounting to almost $ 15,000,000 American Dollars. This is held in a trust at the Lagos National Savings and Trust Association. If we can obtain access to this money, we can place a $ 3,000,000 American Dollars down payment with the Russian Space Authorities for a Soyuz return flight to bring him back to Earth.
          My colleagues and I are willing to transfer the total amount to your account since we as civil servants are prohibited by the Code of Conduct Bureau from opening and/or operating foreign accounts in our names.
          In return, we have agreed to offer you 20 percent of the transferred sum.
          Kindly expedite action as we are behind schedule to enable us include downpayment in this financial quarter.
          Yours Sincerely, Dr. Bakare Tunde

          1. “His other Soviet crew members returned to earth on the Soyuz T-16Z, but his place was taken up by return cargo. There have been occasional Progrez supply flights to keep him going since that time. He is in good humor, but wants to come home.”

          2. 🙂 Youve had it,lol I edited it for length,had all kinds of links and a phone number.More inventive than most though.

          1. Hello NAS

            I missed your post because I have been away from my computer. If you stick around on here and post again, I’ll look out for you and should be able to help out with some recommendations on reading material.

  11. Hello all. Still short on DAX @670 and although it is holding here at 730 I think it will get there later on. But I have now (as a hedge) also gone long DOW @16820 as I think the longer term trend is very up so I will add to that long as the market comes down a bit more and if not then I have “fenced” my current short. If the market moves up I will still keep my DAX short (and my DOW) and add around 840 level.

  12. Afternoon all, been a bit quiet musing over this rise from the past 2 weeks. This is where I am-been selling from the break of 6050 upwards the last week trying to build in the inevitable{in my opinion} revisit to 5500. I have taken some off at this pullback from 6200-6130 and will add shorts till 6330. After that my stop for the whole lot (which will be approx. £50pp) is at 6370. If 6370 happens then I’ve given up my yearly profits but I can’t see us trading higher than the last 12 months high with the amount of poor earnings reports and -ve macro news around. GL all

    1. Well GG33, it is such a filthy day I’m not surprised everything is going down! Anyway, am sort of with your plan, I’ve just paid 25 to get my 70s back from last night. I do wish I’d been a bit more than half awake at the open today, but rules is rules so I shouldn’t have sold any! All that said, I don’t think we’ll see 5500 again, I certainly wont be holding Dave ’til then. I think 6000 might be a difficult nut to crack.
      Was clearing up some paperwork last night and here is how weird all this is to me. December the 20th (I think was the day before the big run up) I had a pretty reasonable long at almost exactly the same level as I’ve got this short!!!

    2. Hi GG, as you know I was as bearish as a grizzly until the channel down was broken.
      Although I fully agree with you macro wise, technically I can’t, except on an overbought rating which is some way away (probably around your stop).
      The saying about illogical markets and solvency comes to mind when p*ssing into a wind as strong as this one appears to be.

          1. Did you close it b/e ? Good you managed to come out of it. I have taken a position on FTSE mainly because of dividend adjustment today.

          2. I lost about 35 points (but on a lrage stake as I averaged that position heavily). My long on the DOW now already has covered that loss so in the + overall. Like the hedging, think I might apply that more often when the market is particularly difficult to understand / predict

          3. Good to know you recovered your losses. I wonder what your position sizes are, must be really large.

        1. I bought this binary at £3 @10.2 so my max loss is £30.6 If FTSE closes above 152.88 for the day I will make 87×3 which looks distant will look to come out b/e if I get a chance.

  13. I’m thinking if I should not close the FTSE position just take the dividend and leave it running for a test of 200. Any suggestions ? Stops in a b/e

    1. I don’t like the FTSE, think it will not perform as well as others but still have same downside. Mainly due to the whole brexit stuff and banking being such a large component. But I know you dont care about any of that

      1. Thanks Dutch, yes to be honest I don’t even try to understand all of that. Too much information. For trading just reading charts is good enough. The reason I went long at 6100 was it was 61.8% retrace of yesterday’s move and also meant to rally in last one hour for dividend.

        I don’t trade the FTSE except for dividend days. It is easy money especially on big dividend days like today.

    2. ok closed the position after 4.30, dividend is collected better of by 6 points if I had closed it at 4.29.

      Lost on that binary it was close missed it by 3 points.

      See you all tomorrow. Have a good evening !!

  14. Just wandered back in and see that I missed all the fun and paid another dividend. It appears “Dave” was in profit briefly and now looking poorly again. Plan is to sell the ones I bought back at 25 at around 200 if we see it. Chipping away

  15. new hedge on: Short DAX @750, long (slightly bigger stake) DOW @16820. Looking for a DOW rise to 17200 , taken the DAX as protection on the way down as that is more likely to go back a level or two and is much less supported than DOW in case of a bit of a downturn.

  16. I have had a good week regularly taking 10 points off gold when it goes into the early 1240’s. Been in and out all week successfully but now sat on a Ftse June contract long equivalent cash price of 6130. Small stakes on Ftse and pretty big on gold.

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