FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd March 2020
- Coronavirus risks worst slump since Second World War
- FTSE futures down 5.1% down as S&P 500 dives 5%
- Oil price falls while Asian markets plunge
Asian shares sank on Monday as a rising tide of national lockdowns threatened to overwhelm policymakers’ frantic efforts to cushion what is likely to be a deep global recession. In a taste of the pain to come, E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 dived 5% at the open to be limit down, and were last off 3.8%. EUROSTOXXX 50 futures plummeted 5.9% and FTSE futures 5.1%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 4.4%, with New Zealand’s market shedding a record 10% as the government closed all non-essential businesses.
Asia markets update
Wellington has nosedived 9.3 percent as New Zealand announced a four-week lockdown to stop the spread of the coronavirus. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was down 3.7 percent, Sydney dropped six percent, Shanghai shed 2.5 percent and Taiwan was off by 2.8 percent. Singapore tanked 7.5 percent, Jakarta lost four percent, and Seoul was down 3.4 percent. Tokyo, however, was up 0.5 percent as a cheaper yen against the dollar boosted the market. Economists and analysts are now worried about how deep the impact of the pandemic could be on the global economy, with social distancing measures and lockdowns dealing serious blows to many industries.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Fridays lower support level at 4790 held overnight (quite the drop from 5400!) and we have seen a small overnight gain so far from here. Friday’s close was 5190 and we may well see the bulls try and push for this today. They will certainly want to get the price back above 5000 if they can. The backdrop though certainly means they have their work cut out. With the fall from 5400, the 2 hour chart is bearish and initially has resistance at the 5060 level, so we may well see an early rise stall here. I have gone for a short here initially in the plan but watch it closely – a break above that will likely see a rise towards the next cluster of resistance at the 5150/5170 level. We have the daily pivot, 30min coral and 200ema all in this area for the moment.
Socio economic factors are mostly in play as well at the moment, and with the flouting of the social distancing over the weekend, and following other countries leads, I am sure that we will see a full lock down here in the next 24/48 hours.
For today I am expecting an initial kick up first thing. Support wise, S1 is the main one to watch this morning, at 4870. A break of this will likely lead to the 4790 area as mentioned. I am half expecting a monster rally at some point soon though, as we have dropped so far so fast, but don’t try and guess the bottom as the Raff channels are still heading firmly down. Expect the wild gyrations to continue for a while yet though.
Tricky times, and stay safe.
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