24th April 2017
Good morning. Everyone was waiting for the French election news and the first round has been won by Macron, with Le Pen in second place. These two will now slug it out on the 7th May. Markets reacted positively on Sunday night open, with the FTSE gapping up to 7225 before Chinese shares selling off brought it back down to 7140. This morning has seen a bit more of a bounce so we could still be on for a Bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern in the European markets. 7216 is the top of the 10 day Bianca channel though. Looking at the charts gold is at the bottom of its daily Raff channels (so would expect a bit of a bounce from 1270), while equites are near the top of their Raff channels, so you would expect some pullback under normal circumstances (7210 FTSE, 12385 Dax, 2380 S&P).
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
So as the French election first round news is digested the market is likely to be slightly more choppy than usual. We still have Asian geo-political tensions with the US carrier fleet now within range of North Korea. The markets have gapped up on Sunday night and as mentioned above, equites are near the top of their Raff channels. The top of the 10 day Raff on the FTSE is 7206, while the 10day Bianca is at 7216. I am full expecting a bull Monday, bear Tuesday this week again, so we may well see a rise past this area if the bulls are buoyed by the Macron lead. Overnight high was 7225 as well, but thats out of hours so not that reliable.
Support wise, we have 7150 and then 7117 as areas of note.
To be honest I expect it will mostly be sentiment driven today as people hop on moves afraid of missing out. Its also likely to be a bit volatile. Chinese shares were off during their Monday session and the ASX200 wasn’t particularly strong. The Dax is likely to be relieved that a more pro-EU candidate has taken the early lead.
CA-CHING!
Thats me cashed out around 7245 for a nice 4 figure gain to start the week.
Will now sit back for a few days and await the next candle signal. That was a nice rounded bottom pattern last 3 days on FTSE daily with a higher low each day, one of my favourite long entries as I mentioned end of last week. Maybe out a tad early but have had good solid gains in FTSE and Gold last few trades. Reckon the euphoria could peter out later. Like that master of investment said – never turn down money – think it was Iggy Azalea. Wise words indeed.
Well held CM.
Good for you CM. Good trade.
As for me I was a 15 mins too late last night and closed my long for -19. In the end a good result I think compared to what it could have been.
I probably won’t trade this week unless I see some strong evidence of market movement in either direction.
If the market had jumped on a takeover or new view on interest rates I would have stayed in but a bounce on political fluff could disappear in a few hours. But I reckon same again in May. Hopefully markets drop on strong Le Pen polling and then rally on the result, regardless of who the winner is, as a Le Pen victory would surely cause a large fall in the euro and the DAX will be a winner.
The scenario you presented is very likely. I wouldn’t rule out a new low in daily this week
WHAT? 200 points up at open? Really? Don’t know what to say. Why?
All of this is unfair, for those who closed their long positions, for those who held their shorts and for those who didn’t have an opportunity to jump on the rally. What is the point in those gaps? It is unfair for almost everyone except who held longs, that’s all.
Short Trend is up…leave off shorts till weakness appears…
Morning guys another week on the international wealth transfer system is well underway :0)…. Got long at 3am at 7161 out at 96 for 1.7 k so far I’ve recovered about 10% of last weeks mistake….Its another lesson and I feel stronger now….its taught me some more small Incremental improvements that I can make to improve my trading….recovered 4 k this morning so far….I’m long presently from 39.6 good luck guys……I’m in full on concentration mode now…….
Nothing like a good beating to sharpen up your reflexes :0)
Not that I’m superstitious but I just closed my long at 45.3 and at that very moment I lost Internet….hmmm…..think I might keep this a bit longer…..just in case it has a bit more to offer :0)
Anstel
No one knew last week the FTSE would drop as it did…
Long is the position now..get clear water and get stop in at break even..
Thanks George it was a bit of a blow last week but it’s all part of the game,,,,I think I will recover it pretty quick…I firmly believe it’s the best teacher when we lose…..I’m upset about the money obviously but I’m very happy about the mental changes I’m making to my trading….for me once I get my weeks wages then I’m happy,it’s all about getting the process refined…..good luck George and everyone,let’s take some money from this market ,we can all do it,it takes time,effort,sleepless nights,a love of the market and a dogged commitment to success….now let’s get stuck in :0)
It takes a few seconds to spot a candle pattern, place stopkf necessary, place the position and now the hard part.. do nothing. Walk away. Staring at the screen is waste of time. So concentration level required is zero. No sleepless nights. No emotions involved. No doggedness involved. Simply spot the pattern that has repeated thousands of times before and press a button. So easy .
I agree with you 100% about one thing CM…..staring at the screen is a waste of time alright…..however to be a candle master I would imagine you have put a lot of screen time in surely?
Sure. And seen the folly of it.
Yeah it’s a pain in the @@@@ alright but you can’t buy experience…I’m lovin it tday though…..you have to love it or you might as well call it a day :0)
Oh bollox it took me out at 45.3 and left the trade on my iPad.just closed it at 50 and it said error contact client management…..ok no worries it’s dinner time…..flat Ftse short cable small……
I’ve placed a small short at 49.3 just in case we get a small pullback pre dow….if not I’ll dump it…
We are only about 4 off top of the range on 5 min so it’s worth a little go while I make my dinner…
Out for £18 :0)
I added £5 long and ended up short from 50.7 …..it looked a bit bouncy to be short so I’m watching now…..not having a position is having a position :0)
Should have held the short…..just need to have the courage of my convictions on the short side…
Loving it though tday…..tmfp was right again……”a busy ant is better than a dosing ox”…..:0)
Anyone else going to get some posting done then ? I’ve got RSI in my typing finger and its time to eat….catch you all soon…..
Im short on S&P at 2378 currently. Tried a dax short earlier speculatively but got stopped out. Might dip a bit tomorrow instead – bull Monday, bear Tuesday and all
We’re have they all gone Nick ? Sharmabee was a stalwart…there’re all hiding :0)…..
No idea. Blown accounts maybe?
SP500 sitting above its upeer bollinger band, usually a great time to short.
Presently long from 44.3 ….
Ok I’m looking for a push above 54
Added
Out at 64.8 for 1.4 K
On 5 min Rsi looking a bit toppy… Leave a bit for guys with the Porsches :0)…..well… Have you seen the surviving costs…. Lol :0)
Servicing costs lol :0)….
Yeah agree would be looking to play the retrace if I actively shorted, usually I just check in tomorrow to make sure todays high not taken out. As long as that holds, correct position is short. Would be lookinf to rerest 7200 tomorrow.But I dont play those as only looking to buy markets.
Hey all
Been a tough morning for me – 4 figures up by 9.30 then missed an exit and got stuck in sizeable long dax 🙁
Hit my max daily loss limit(1(good) week’s profit) and so rather than plough on even though I am so tempted for a short, I’ve called it a day.
I made a couple of mistakes today, so something not quite right and I hate fighting these ‘fundamental’ moves. I’d guess a pullback is due fairly shortly, but I will resist the urge and live to fight again tomorrow.
Cost of doing business and all that.
Good luck!
Afternoon inoodle :0) good to see you,,,let’s get some action going on here again…come on all you secret stealth forum readers get posting we need some ideas,the more the merrier :0)..
Hi inoodle, I don’t like it much this afternoon. Had a reasonable morning though. I think you just need to recognise when the market activity suits your trading style and when it doesn’t. It is always better to stay out and live to fight another day than panic yourself into the wrong trade, I think… Good luck tomorrow – it is a new, fresh day 🙂
Hey Tufty, very very true words about recognising the market activity and when it suits your style.
For me I think this translates to no big average positions when fundamental changes are afoot… take the losses a lot faster on those days… I’m sure I’ve told myself this about 10 times already… 11th time the charm:)
Just reread my post… stuck in a sizeable short dax obviously 🙂 if only I’d been long haha
short now till close of play !!
Sitting on hands
Even.the dogs sitting on my hands now :0)
Inoodle if you must short try shorting only a daily shooting star candle. Make sure price has dropped below previous days low and has not exceeded previous days high. Those rules will keep you out of most squeezes and bad plays.
Cheers CM,
They sound like very valid rules and I’ll start trying to incorporate a couple of aspects of them.
My trading is very short term though – average trade length is about 17minutes, so I tend to short quite a lot. I notice that the key times I hit limit down is on big revaluations such as today. If I can start to apply some filters to the bigger picture to avoid those days then the printing press can go into full speed 🙂
Good afternoon everyone
I thought I would pop in to keep anstel company for a bit. He is going to go mad otherwise if he keeps talking to himself… !
Oh hello ,I posted you a Dip video last week to go with your nachos……didn’t hear anymore from you, so at least when I talk to myself I get a reply :0) seriously, difficult trading this last week, I hope your doin well, or surviving at least….we are all here to try and help each other so I’m sure if you have any questions somebody on here will most probably be able to help……best of luck with your trading….. gotta go,I need to have an important conversation…………with myself :0) lol…
Hi anstel. Thanks for the videos – very interesting. I will have a go at making them. It is amazing how we all deal with stress differently. I like nachos and dips, myself. Actually I have a friend who buys everything she can (but doesn’t need) on Ebay. At least my stress relief doesn’t cost me all that much. I just have to stop pressing buttons because it gets me in all sorts of trouble…
Hope that you enjoy the rest of the afternoon… with yourself….! 🙂
I hope that dog isn’t too heavy anstel…it might prevent you from pressing buttons when you need to! Give it some nachos while you are both waiting 🙂
About 37.5 kg he eats to much as it is…….I’m only trading to pay for his waste disposal bags :0)
Looks like this ftse has had a little range change again…. It is trying to keep us all guessing… good luck all, Tufty x
Stop to 2378 breakeven on the S&P short I have on
Looks like you all had a good day today. Ftse looks toppy at the moment. One thing I have come to realise over the years is I am comfortable holding shorts than longs. How about you?
In the past, yes. But in the current market, this year, I am scared of holding shorts.
Most of my losses ever have been on shorts.
I’ve got PTSD from my very first blown account…..Post Traumatic Short Disorder :0)
🙂
Read this http://monevator.com/short-etf-maths/
Shorting is what sends most people to bankruptcy.
Much worse to be caught on the wrong side of a short when market goes up than vice versa.
Hence the old adage the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I chose to be long-only years ago and never looked back.
Where’s this goin ? anyone got any ideas,you would think a short might yield something after all the 150 points up from 7124 -7130 but it looks pretty strong at the moment?
I reckon 7312 is where this rally will stall. Tomorrow should give more clues. The hourly seems to be stalling already. The 4hr is strong ATM which isn’t going to help shorts. I only see longs ATM
Tomorrow you go long if todays high is broken at the open. If not, short it with a stop above todays high. If you must trade. Personally I could only be tempted in long tomorrow on a break of todays high 🙂 But in fact I wont touch it at all.