Looks Bearish 6085 support 6160 resistance Asian stocks slumped

Support 6105 6086 6084 6067
Resistance 6154 6155 6162 6164 6192
Good morning. Not sure what that rise to 6200 was all about yesterday, probably just a short squeeze or a stop hunt as since hitting that we have dropped off, with the bears helped by a weak Asia session overnight. The 9901 Dax short was a corker and if anyone is still holding that then well done! Despite some initial support at 6155 after that rise, the chart has started to look bearish again so we might well be on for sub 6100 today.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • S&P 500 futures slip after index dropped from 2016 high
  • Investors turn attention to central banks as RBA, RBI meet

Asian stocks slumped to a five-week low and emerging-market currencies weakened as investors reassessed last month’s rally in riskier assets. Oil declined for a third day, while the yen and Treasuries gained.

Energy producers led losses in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the yen’s three-day surge weighed on Japanese exporters. Chinese shares slipped in Hong Kong after a local holiday on Monday, with Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaling a second day of losses in U.S. shares. South Korea’s won dropped 0.8 percent, while Australia’s dollar fell before a central bank policy meeting. U.S. crude slid for a third day ahead of government data forecast to show increasing stockpiles. Thirty-year Treasury yields declined to their lowest level since Feb. 25.

After adding more than $4.5 trillion to the value of global equities in March and sending developing-nation currencies to their best monthly gain since at least 1996, investors are waiting for fresh reasons to keep buying. Central banks, which helped fuel last month’s rally, will remain in focus this week as policy makers in Australia and India meet on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its latest meeting on Wednesday.

“There is a bit of a risk-off theme at present with oil prices down and equities in negative territory in the U.S.,” said Khoon Goh, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge lost 1.3 percent at 11:32 a.m. in Hong Kong, set for its lowest close since March 2. Japan’s Topix slumped 1.8 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.4 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 1.6 percent. S&P 500 futures declined 0.3 percent after the U.S. benchmark dropped 0.3 percent on Monday.

“There’s a big divergence in opinion right now over whether this rally is a head fake or not,” Craig Sterling, head of U.S. equity research at Pioneer Investments in Boston, said by phone. “Stocks have gone up on not a lot of volume and we’re kind of at an inflection point right now.”

Currencies
The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index dropped 0.1 percent, with Malaysia’s ringgit slipping 0.4 percent on lower oil prices and Indonesia’s rupiah dropping 0.3 percent.

Australia’s currency retreated 0.4 percent, with all 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting the nation’s cash rate will be kept at 2 percent Tuesday. The New Zealand dollar lost 0.3 percent, a third day of declines, after a gauge of business confidence in the first quarter dropped.

The yen, which typically moves at odds with Japanese equities, added 0.4 percent to 110.89 per dollar after gaining 0.3 percent last session.
“The yen has captured all the caution about the global economy that investors were building up earlier in the year,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.

India’s rupee was little changed. The Reserve Bank of India will probably lower the benchmark repurchase rate to 6.5 percent from 6.75 percent, according to 36 of 42 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Four see a reduction to 6.25 percent and two see no change.

Commodities
Oil retreated 0.4 percent to $35.57 a barrel in New York. Inventories probably rose by 2.85 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report due Wednesday.

Gold increased 0.8 percent in the spot market, while copper added 0.9 percent to pace gains among industrial metals.

Bonds
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries declined 2 basis points to 2.58 percent, while the rate on benchmark 10-year notes dropped 2 basis points to 1.74 percent. The Fed won’t raise interest rates again until December, futures contracts indicate. BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, says policy makers are letting the economy “run hotter” before acting.

In Australia, 10-year yields fell 4 basis points to 2.43 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

It looks bearish to me for today so shorting the rallies is the best plan in my opinion, especially after what is looking more like a stop hunt/short squeeze yesterday to 6200. We have the daily pivot at 6163, as well as some other resistance levels once again between 6150 and 6160 so I think if we get an early rise to this area then once again its worth a short from here. That looks the best trade for the FTSE so I have only put the one in the trade plan as my main trade. We have Draghi talking later this week (Thursday) so thats something to bear in mind, as we may see another pump and dump around that. The Bianca trends are both showing support at the 6085 area, not far off the recent lows, so if we get that low then there will be support there, and maybe worth a long if you’re feeling brave. Not too much more to say really, apart from I am remaining bearish for the moment and still expect us to see 6010 soon, with the failure once again to break 6200 yesterday.

141 Comments

  1. Hello you lovely people.
    We’ve got our weak Tuesday after our usual bull Monday so, what are we to do with it?
    IG had 9615 as the DAX line in the sand or else its down to 9254, but I think that might be a bit much for today 😉 , haven’t even had an hourly close below there yet.
    FTSE support 67-85 and Nick’s brave long at 85 is paying a few atm. (Out at 6100 tyvm).
    Just like 6200 was a range bound sell yesterday, sensible head says long side cautiously today on the 6000’s.
    How about BTD? Can anyone see a melt down? I’d like to and I think it’s vulnerable, but let’s not get too carried away.

    1. Morning all,Morning Tmfp,looking at those wicks on the Dow day chart I just cant see a melt down to be honest,not ruling it out,but dont think it’s different this time.I reckon somewhere between here and the low 500’s is as low as we’ll see the Dow and that’ll be their BTD.I reckon it will come down from a new high,doesnt have to be 18364,but more 18k on a news push than 17800 on everyone saying it’s due to correct,earnings are rubbish etc etc.
      This FTSE and Dax pause at the moment is probaly more to do with 17600 than anything european.I mean price of |Oil,Brexit and the rest ought to be worth us being lower after all of the lagging relative to the dow the Dax has done and their mfg orders this morning were a fall a few people were buying too.That’s just opinion though.

      1. Morning WSF, sure it’s all opinion.
        Those wicks/tails are interesting. I know what conventional analysis says, but when the support from them doesn’t result in new highs then it also magnifies the effect the time when they don’t appear. They not only look like crutches, they are: kick them away and it falls over.
        Obviously, in the context of CB support, maybe times are changing. That’s what They Want Us to Believe. *tinfoil hat*

        1. Yes,but they literally show a pattern of down in the morning and up later in the day,so on that basis,even without them meaning demand that follows through,I’m erring on the do nothing side for a bit 🙂 Bet you are glad you havent put your profits in Panama.

          1. All my best websites are hosted there, lovely place. 🙂

            I hear you loud and clear, but that puts ongoing pressure on the afternoon to perform. When the day comes when when it doesn’t, liquidation finds no buyers.

  2. Closed my DOW short from 17826 and have a FTSE short running from 9192. Blue ink for once.

      1. Nice one Si.
        DAX just broken its early down trend @600, ours is ~at 95, if we break that and get back in the 6100’s then it might look like a bit of a base.
        Important short term hold now for the DAX at 90.

          1. Hope I didn’t spook you too early, it’s just that we’ve seen this a number of times recently.
            When it looks like shit or looks like it’s going to the moon, time to counter trend. We are still in the range and blue ink is only real when its in the bank..
            Those two fails at 6100 and 9620 aren’t too promising for the bulls though.

  3. Morning all, closed the 70 short at 20 this morning, bit early but happy with that.
    Meltdown? I really think the Ftse needs to see 5800 ish to make it “healthy” after its straight line rise from 5500 however when the World and his wife are still short I’m not sure it’ll collapse.
    Out of the money VIX getting close to being on the money and FTSE/Dow arb almost starting to pay.

  4. It’s got a bit of a complacent feel about it which I don’t like, not relonging this 85.

  5. Morning All,

    As I expected, it is a down day and closed my Dax short for 310 points and Dow short for 220 points.

  6. Although we both broke the downtrends, we’re ghosting them down still. FTSE can’t break 60 rsi so short term selling that atm @85 for a few.
    DAX trying to hold 9570 with some 1 min tails, how low can it go?

  7. tmfp – what’s your plan for the day?
    I am looking to go long at FTSE around this 6080 area and hold for couple of hours but then I am thinking that we might hit 6050 or even 6000s later on day, very tricky to go long at the moment.
    I have been shorting rallies since this morning from 6115, 6110 and 6100 area but going long around 6080 is scary 🙂

    1. I don’t really have one Rick, making it up as I go along.
      What to do at 80….apart from thinking about taking 5 on my last short, not much.
      There may be another exhaustion sell down to the 60’s, worth a long. I have a feeling that we’ll see the 100’s again before the DOW.
      All square here now, not chasing it either way.

      1. Thanks tmfp- just bought some small FTSE at 78 S30, looking to hold this hopefully. Will add more at 50/55.
        GL

  8. Morning all…..tmfp you are a trading God……how you get it right so often is remarkable…..been reading up on stock charts about the RSI thanks ….RJ nice one on your shorts……..WSF,Senu ,and everyone else good luck today….Right I’m keeping my head down for abit and watching how things play out….Got a bit more Red ink at this end than I was expecting……it’s always darkest before the dawn I’ve heard said on here…….:0) good luck all…..

    2. You are too kind anstel, unfortunately I’m not paying getting it right into the bank much atm.
      Not getting on your back, but you’re showing signs of slipping back into marrying positions without much technical justification.
      GL as always.

      1. Hi Anstel,
        Take the fish when you have it on your plate or maybe eat half and leave rest at b/e just like RJ 🙂

      2. Your right again tmfp :0) what can I tell you…… I cocked up yet again……..Hi Rick…….yeah another fish slipped off my hook….because I’m predisposed to longer term trades taking half and running half would be a good compromise. Good luck lads….if I’m honest I’m not too worried…..I still think it’s a BTFD senario longer term….famous last words!

  9. Morning everyone!
    Took some points out this morning short from 6130 and decided to go long 6150 daily Puts instead of using a stop. Currently long from 6180 with a tight (7) stop – felt slightly positive based on the very oversold 15min rsi… Not sure I’ll hold very long though…hmmm

  12. Hi again all. I got rather bored with the sideways action a little while back and lightened George towards the bottom of the daily range. Used the cash to tinker with a few little longs at bottom of said range, but nothing serious. Thought it best to lighten in case a break to the upside does occur. Momentum is weakening of course, but that could also be interpreted as working off the rather overbought condition (instead of doing it by a big drop). Well, we’ll see because it won’t be stuck here forever!

    We have e enough weakness in Europe, I’m still waiting for the Americans to crack to be honest. Still expecting a dip, but have just lightened my conviction a bit until some more evidence appears from across the water. Just before I climbed into bed last night, I noticed gold at the bottom of the recent range (and DAX was looking weak) so I fancied a punt. Closed it this morning for $17 as it’s bumped off the 20 and 50 day.

  13. 9620 and 6090 now need breaking or it’s sideways with a poss exhaustion sell off to 9530/6065 for me.
    If they go, I’m longing bottled water.

    2. Yes, I am in with you, we usually have similar trend pattern until 12ish and then change in trend or retrace after midday.
      Would love to buy FTSE around 6065 or even 6050!

      1. DAX is holding 9580 for now and we still have some bit time left for retrace which I expect to start around 12ish.
        Oil is on the other has pretty much recovered losses from this morning and here we go by the time I am writing this 80 is broken on DAX!

    1. These guys will never allow for a good entry 🙁 just setting up a long order @ 51, it bounced

    3. I closed it for -15 Senu anyway my stop would have been hit. It was a counter trend trade so exited early. Not very clear at the moment.

      1. 🙂 that’s my fluent german for Plunge Protection Squad….or maybe it’s just a short covering revisit to previous support.
        I’m all out now, resisting temptation to reshort

  19. From IG’s Mahony:
    FTSE falls towards range support

    The FTSE 100 is tumbling this morning, in a move which is consistent with the range that has been dominating price action since the beginning of March. Typically this index tops out around 6200-6220 and bottoms out within the 6067-6100 zone.

    This means that while we are seeing a deterioration, it may not sustain for long and thus intraday bullish reversal signals should be watched out for as possible signs that we are set to return to the top of the range. ”A closed 4-hour candle below 6067 could provide us with a warning sign that this bounce may not come”

  20. 9620 and 6090 back in play as next real resistance, if they get there in a hurry might be worth a short

    1. I mentioned earlier that we normally do get retrace or change in trend around 12ish, this is a common pattern in indices after a huge sell-off or a big bounce on a 4 hour chart!
      GL if you are long 🙂

      1. I’ve been a bit naughty to be honest went long Dow at 614.5…..definitely sitting on my hands now…….not pressing any more buttons till I land some fish :0) GL Rick……BTW I think you might be tmfps distant relative…..top scalper no2….:0)

    1. Hey WSF I’m bloody starvin…..can I have that 20p :0) sardines at Aldi are only 35p a can and I’ve got 15 p already ;0)

      1. Sorry Anstel I’m sticking with the ECB plan,going to eat the Blackbird and buy one share in Bank of Ireland,you should have a look outside too,it’s a lot like youtube,but with smells and free money. 🙂

        1. Lol! Your just showing off cause you’ve got something to eat……what about a blackbird wing then? I know you like blackbirds but you can’t eat a full one on your own:0)

          2. Good idea…I’ve got some eggs…that’s dessert organised…….looks like if WSF is hungry I won’t be getting that wing…..? Oh well it’s back to my staple diet….hedgehog pie for main course……..Living the dream :0)

    2. Matt Clinch?? How can anyone believe something by someone with a name out of WWE?
      Inflation is only good if it results from real demand, not debt financed consumer bubbles.
      CNBC causes disorientation and blindness, its a proven fact.

  24. After serial attempts to get through 9610 and 6085, looks like we might be having a little pre DOW nerves coming up, could be a chance of snaffling something cheap.
    I can’t see them wanting to open much below 17600, their isolationism seems to be spreading to everything.

  25. US trade balance out in 9 mins……could effect any Dow trades and also effect Dow trades indirectly through fluxuations in cable……Thinking mainly of people with big position size………Si….

  27. had a good FTSE trade going, freaked out closed the trade, and watched
    it the whole day moving in the right direction……….darn it.

      1. was afraid that i was closing on my stop loss (around £90) .
        Just a general mind thing that i need to control, its not the FTSE its me sort of thing.

  28. Heavy flipping short triggered at 90 and all out for +8.
    Thanks to extreme RSI reading and thanks to tmfp 90 real resistance 🙂
    Let’s wait and see how uncle DOW plays out today!

  30. Back in the game, up to £250 for the day. Calling it quits now, don’t want to mess up my mojo with too high of a frequency of trades! Upset I missed the sell from 6200 yesterday, seemed like a no brainer with a tight stop.

    Sticking to the “£200 a day,” mentality for a while and see where it takes me.

  32. Looks to me like we have a decent dividend on FTSE tomorrow of 9.46 finally depending on closing prices tomorrow but still pretty decent if anyone’s holding long trades. With that in mind it could be cheap now? plenty of water could go under the bridge in a day though!

  33. Pretty much as expected around 630 DOW, that will disappoint europe bulls hoping for a lead and pressures still on.

      1. Unlucky, I said don’t marry it, not ditch it after the first date lol. Any way it’s all profit Senu… 🙂

    2. and out -8
      This DOW BTD action puts the frighteners on very easily these days, very few sellers about.
      DAX looks like it wants to jump off a bridge.

      1. LOL I know I actually shorted 92 on FTSE and stopped out for -10.
        Back to where I was before DOW time 🙁

        1. I’m thinking FTSE will be bloody back to 6150 by end of play today, just like Friday.
          This is the pump news from US today;
          ”The ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in for March at 54.5, up from February’s 53.4 print. ”

          2. I don’t know tmfp – I hate DOW time FTSE trading.
            Anyways, I’m holding a short from 6105 – took half for +10 and rest at b/e

    1. Yeah, sellers are scared.
      This one’s not, short at 08 I’ll chuck another 6 at top hunting 🙂

      2. Shorting in the afternoon reminds me of a long time ago when I was a pretty good cricketer and bowled to Ian Botham in the nets.
        He played a few back all nice and the next one came 1″ past my ear like an exocet.

        1. Hahahaha classic. Well with the ftse resisting so strongly, I imagine it could pop up given half a chance. Maybe.

        1. took 16
          That’s it from me, not a bad day but hard work, time for a long soak.
          catch you tmrw chaps.

  42. It’s very messy. I took a few points here and there, but I’d have to say luck more than judgement. Ftse v sensitive to oil, which is like a yo yo

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