Asian Stocks Fluctuate 6103 6080 support 6132 6198 resistance

Support 6102 6074 6055 6049 6045
Resistance 6120 6132 6143 6198
Good morning. The lower support areas held well yesterday and we have regained 6100 overnight though it certainly started to look more bearish yesterday, with the drop in the morning. I thought the bull might have been able to retest the 6155 area before the bears took over but we sold off from the start. The long off the daily channels worked out well, though only managed 6100 before falling back. Gold fell back from its 1237 high but only by 10, while the bigger timeframe FTSE charts are still looking like more potential downside. We have a 9.46 dividend today so bear that in mind later, and we may also see some divi hunters come in for that before the bell this afternoon.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Asian Stocks Fluctuate as Crude Rebound Buoys Energy Producers
  • Japan’s Topix erases slide; U.S. equity index futures advance
  • Crude gains as Kuwait says freeze possible without Iran

Oil rebounded amid optimism a deal will be struck to freeze output, spurring gains in Asian energy shares. The yen held near a 1 1/2-year high, while U.S. index futures rose and Treasuries retreated.

U.S. crude climbed a second day, jumping more than 2 percent after Kuwait indicated producers could reach an agreement to arrest output even if Iran doesn’t join in. A gauge of Asian energy producers rose for the first time this month, while the the Malaysian ringgit led a rebound in emerging-market currencies. Copper advanced along with tin.

Investors remain cautious in the wake of last month’s optimism, with International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde highlighting risks to the global economy. More detail on the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance could be forthcoming Wednesday, with minutes of their March gathering due. U.S. political uncertainty was heightened as Texas Senator Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump in Wisconsin’s Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, and Bernie Sanders claimed a victory over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest. Pfizer Inc. decided to scrap a planned $160 billion merger with Allergan Plc, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

“It’s been a bit volatile the last few days, but emerging markets are quite resilient, ” said Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at Tokyo-based Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. “At the start of the year, the argument wasn’t that Japan itself was bad. Rather, because emerging markets are bad, Japan and the U.S. will be dragged down too. That type of thinking was quite prevalent then, but as emerging markets are proving to be resilient, that kind of logic is breaking down.”

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.1 percent as of 11:56 a.m. Tokyo time as the energy sub-gauge rose 0.9 percent, its first gain since March 31. The Topix recovered from a 1 percent slump to be up 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.6 percent and the Kospi index in Seoul added 0.4 percent.

The Shanghai Composite index was little changed along with the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong. Taiwanese equities slid 1.7 percent as markets in Taipei opened after two days of public holidays.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were up 0.5 percent following a 1 percent drop in the U.S. benchmark last session. The index capped its biggest two-day slump since Feb. 9. The S&P 500 hadn’t moved more than 1 percent in either direction over the previous 15 sessions, a trend not seen since March 2015.

Commodities
Oil continues to exert influence over global financial markets, with Kuwait claiming a deal on output can be reached without Iran when major suppliers meet April 17. Saudi Arabia spurred a selloff in oil earlier this week by questioning its own involvement in the freeze should Iran not take part.

“Oil is going to be very volatile in the lead up to the meeting,” Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at IG Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone, referring to the mid-April talks on the freeze. “It’s so uncertain as to whether a deal is going to be reached.”

West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery jumped 2.5 percent in New York to $36.78 a barrel, while Brent crude for June delivery rose 1.6 percent to $38.47 a barrel.

Gold retreated 0.1 percent in the spot market, while copper added 0.3 percent, climbing for a second day. Tin rose 0.6 percent.

Currencies
The yen was down 0.1 percent at 110.47 per dollar, after climbing as high as 109.95 on Tuesday, its strongest level since October 2014. Australia’s dollar rose 0.3 percent, gaining for the first time this week, and the Canadian currency strengthened 0.1 percent.

A gauge of Asian currencies advanced, snapping three days of declines, with the Malaysian ringgit rising 0.4 percent and the Thai baht appreciating 0.3 percent.

Bonds
Treasuries retreated, with the 10-year yield increasing two basis points to 1.74 percent. Japanese similar-maturity notes were little changed at minus 0.07 percent. South Korean bonds were yielding 1.79 percent after reaching a record-low 1.77 percent on Monday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have had a bit of a bounce overnight from yesterdays low and with oil rising we may well see a bit more upside towards the 200ema on the 30min at 6132. The daily moving averages are both around this level and whilst not bearish, are close to crossing to a bearish set up. Once again we are still within the range that we have seen for a while now, 6070 – 6200, though with yesterday pushing more to the downside we may still see 6010. Today is also the start of the new tax year so we may see some new ISA money etc coming in to help an early rise as funds etc get bought. As mentioned above there is a 9.4 divi later so may see some buyers come in around 16:10 – can be worth going long at this time and closing before the bell (if the divi is applied at 16:30 on your platform). Generally I am still feeling bearish and expect us to see 6000 before too long, the failure again to break 6200 makes me think that the 6350 level is unlikely to be seen in the near term, but you never know. For today that 6132 level looks worth an initial short, though if it breaks though that then flip to a long for a run at 6198, where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca.

143 Comments

    1. I am bit bullish today WSF, there is quite a bit of noise to freeze oil production and ofcourse because of it oil is heading up and the strong Chinese PMI figures.
      BTD is working so far this morning but I keeping my another eye open for DAX as is struggling!
      GL

      1. Yes,I read a bit about 36 becoming the new R that with ongoing oversupply etc etc and the German banking mess,Brexit etc etc would keep it all down,but 36 turns out not to be threatening and I keep remembering the time some OPEC bloke nobody had heard of said something unlikely about an agreement on Twitter and we all rallied for 2 days.3 days down on the Dow has been rare lately too,even if it repeats yesterday,Kuroda,Draghi and Yellen are talking tomorrow,so cant see too much of a dip.

  2. Morning All,
    Went long this morning at 6105, half out at 27 and rest at b/e.
    Looks like bulls will push this 30 area if yes then I will be looking to short around 6150.
    GL all 🙂

  3. Hey Anstel,congrats on getting a Dow div,bet that feels almost as good as the rally points 🙂

    1. Morning WSF and everybody.well I’ll tell you what’s happening at this end…..well as you know I went long Dow Yday at 614….. Sometime later we had that big rally to over 700…. Was looking for 750 that was my target….Mr greedy strikes again….I missed out….numbskull again…so I watched that Rande Howell video again three times….the thief in the night…..it describes me to a tee…..I’m so hard wired to push for the best deal I can get….it’s what I’ve done in my business all my life…..I’m going to watch the video again today three more times…..morning noon and teatime…………right so I don’t do giving up….waited up and closed my Dow at 17685.4 for almost 71 points at about 4am this morning…..a success yes but it shows how wrong my thinking is in this endeavour of trading……I’m trying to reprogram my brain …..I had Ricks voice goin through my head this morning…..and tmfps….and rande Howells…..Take the money…..let your profits run but don’t let them run dry…….The good thing is I suppose I don’t have a holding problem……..I have a push it for every last bit problem….This morning is good because I’ve seen Dow back down at 28 so it reinforces the new belief system I’m trying to install in me that if I miss a few extra pints at the top end I have a good chance of getting another shot at the same points area between 28-85……?Good luck everyone……oh I’ve got some nice red numbers to look at on my Dax soufflé en all tmfp……maybe that will need to go back in the oven for further rises :0)….now get your fishing rods out chaps and land some Fish :0) I’m off for my morning reprogramming session with Rande……

      1. Lol. Yeah if I miss a few extra pints…….that would help too :0)…..numbskull can’t type either lol:0)

        1. It was 4 and a bit points,so good for Greggs 🙂 That Ed Seykota trend link from Rick last night is worth a few plays too if you didnt hear it,”One good trend pays for ’em all” 🙂
          Thanks Rick.

          1. Right thanks WSF I’ll put Ricks Ed Seykota link in my mental reprogramming session this morning and see if it’s goin to make it into my three video views a day playlist :0) ……thanks Rick for posting it in the first place…..time for a nice cup of Tea……anstel out till later…GL all…

          2. Yeeharrrwwwww…oh yeah baby….the whipsaw songs going in my three plays a day all this week :0)

        1. Yeah that’s something actually tmfp I could ask WSF …….what I have done on some trades is manually move stops up behind profits…..then pile on some more size…brings stops up again then pile it on again……sometimes I have reduced the stops on the nearest position to the market price as it breaths to keep that position in the game if it’s a trending day before the next increase in position size as it then continues up……I don’t know how to set up automatic trailing stops WSF,I have always done it manually.is it easy to do on city?

          1. I tend to place trades off my iPhones app due to I sometimes get a lag on my laptop with my execution….it doesn’t seem to have a trailing stop option on the phone but looked on my iPad and it’s got the trailing stop option on that….don’t really know how to use it though….. Need to investigate this on the iPad.

          2. Sorry Anstel,never tried,cant see the option on City.I go off EMA’s between 5 and 10 (that’s my plan anyway 🙂 )basically 5 min chart and up,ideally 15 min chart,just pick one that has been working like a trendline.Bollinger Bands,is price on a line,are they constricting,but yeah a trailing stop and being automatic makes more sense.If we both ask on LiveChat this week it might get recorded as customer demand 🙂

          4. You know what WSF I used to trade off laptop all the time and I’m bloody sure the trailing stop option wasn’t there…….now it is there on the laptop dealing tab…don’t know how it works yet and I’m not planning on any trades just now but maybe we can figure it out or I’ll call city and get them to run through it….GL buddy.

          5. Yes,looks straightforward,cancel a S/L and replace it with a trailing stop from Edit,when you tick the box it asks you how many points away you want to be,cant see the point in putting it on from the opening ticket before there is a profit although that is an option they offer.Re Platform changes I remember logging in one morning and the Single Click Button had just appeared overnight,think it was the middle of the week too,it is odd,dont know when the Trailing Stops appeared lol.

  5. Poxy internet, was trying to sell around Nick’s 32 but it wouldn’t have it.
    Now barred from talking to Customer Service 🙁

    So what do we do at 6100/9530, a small long for a bounce? No, a bit more to come I think. Got my eye on 9400 DAX support later, 50% retrace and previous low.

  6. Nice long off the pivot first thing then flip to short at 6132. All out at 6105. Nice when a plan comes together!

    Sorted your IG woes tmfp?

    1. Well done mate.
      Yes, it wasnt IG, it was the broadband. A deep and meaningful conversation with support put things right. 150ms ping is carrier pigeon speed. 🙁

      This retrace short going nowhere probably out for a couple.

  7. Looks like a grinder. How far will it grind?
    Getting o/b short term, another try for a top at 30

          3. No Jack big short, watch 9500 go before lunch on the DAX is my plan, and 6000’s again on ftse…

    1. Good question. I treat after 14.00 as a separate market these days.
      Bit miffed by that 7 pt blip out of nowhere, so quiet and volume so thin that what would usually be a small buy/sell has an effect.
      Will persevere short till stopped….

      1. and added to the short again at 26, stop on all at 32 which would make it a minisculey profitable venture overall.

        1. We have a nice uptrend going for a while, I have put 6150 as a sell order for now with 12pt stop.
          GL mate

          1. But it’s not an uptrend as we know it Jim.
            It was a volume free drift up of 15 pts for an hour, then presumably the 10 point blip was suckers like us being stopped, now back to sideways dead.

          2. Yeah, I know but I need to say something lol, I was short at 100/pt at 26 bloody annoying!

          3. Yeah mine was fairly large too and my 3x1min stop thing stiffed me.
            Kicking my self for not carrying on shorting at 40+, should have seen that prev high stop hunt coming….

    1. I don’t know, just wasted three hours of my life though.

      It’s quite a worry that this light volume will continue, I can’t trade without a bit of momentum. This is just tick over dead, then revalue.

      1. I know, I have a last short order left at 6150 before DOW with 12pt stop!
        Except this, I think I will sit tight for DOW to open and then later on we should have some decent divi momentum hopefully 🙂
        GL tmfp

    1. neither probably Senu, until the DOW and I have no idea what that’s going to do.
      It’s pretty trapped 7600-700.
      Was hoping for a look at the 6100 level again, that might have tested them but here is nomansland for me.
      I’m getting the nasty feeling that this lack of volatility is exactly what the Fed want and that it stems from them. Give me a billion dollar fund and I’d smooth things out pretty good.

      3. Well Bullard is tonight,but Kuroda,Draghi and Yellen tomorrow will walk on him if he didnt learn his lesson from last time 🙂

  14. That was just a stop hunt and short covering bounce @ 6132, now back to where it started. Short @ 6132, 7 pt stop

  17. Hi Guys been watching Rande,sitting on hands and some other stuff….I’m looking for the possibility of another long Dow position small to practice my homework…looking for 600 or less ideally might not get it though….nearly entered then but in no rush….Rather be out wishing I was in this time :0)

    1. Need some upside momentum here for me to get in I think…..think it will come as well..it’s sitting just above the 100 SMA on the 4 hr the Dow.

  18. A little long at 24…
    The DAX looks like it might disconnect from the others soon, that is one bearish looking market
    no sooner said…

        1. out for a handful
          I keep seeing breaks that aren’t there, bet your bottom dollar if/when they come I’ll be square

          1. Lol same here, I am all square now but I have got feeling that this is gonna go down to 6100 atleast and then back to 6130 or may be 6150 for divi hunters and then back to 6120-6110 after bell.
            My plan is simple for rest of today – small long around 6100 and short after bell.

          2. Last two days has been really hard for scalping, anyways I am looking forward to MHH today 🙂

          4. Well, you were right but I just had no patience to hold this as I had a nice -10pt slap on my face earlier on 🙂
            Looking for a long now divi time!

    1. GL mate, remember to take the profits.
      Simple advice if you don’t fancy using trailing stops then take half of the fish and leave rest at b/e and then use RSI or resistance or support levels to figure out your targets for rest of the fish.
      🙂

      1. Thanks very much Rick I’m going to try and take reasonable profits instead of pushing too hard….I can only try….trying to retrain my thinking….I’m losing lots of points through it thanks again buddy.

          7. Sorry tmfp…I’m not trying to be a smart arse….gee wiz I’m anything but lol!….what I meant was I’m trying to not let my profits run dry like a numbskull <:0)

          8. Rock on baby out for +27 and a half fish……good old Rande. Never mind if it keeps going no more hedgehog pie today :0) thanks Rick and tmfp for your guidance……it is abit of a p@sser though to see it carry on without me….never mind I can get in again later when it throws it’s dummy out :0)

  21. Hey Nick,
    Mirror trading looks interesting, is it like eToro or something?
    I am definitely up for it 🙂

    1. I guess it is similar yes. Basically my account is the master account, and then any that are “attached” to it, will follow trades that I do. I use MT4, but the “followers” never need to do anything. As I said I’m just working on it at the moment but wanted to gauge interest. I tried etoro and and also ayondo but didn’t like either.

  22. Afternoon all, been sitting on my hands a bit for the last few days. That said, I did manage to throw a few quid away last night whilst I was practicing RSI on the dow, got long at 620 on a v. low rsi only to be stopped out within minutes at 590.
    Anyway, still looking at VIX which is bang on the money but the good news is that my FTSE/DOW arb is now looking marvellous! Good luck all.

    1. Nice one on the arb mate, my vix is just blue now, if the DOW gets towards 400 all good. (20pt + candle as we speak) 🙁

      1. Dow needs to get a proper slap and I would like to see it well below 400 but it still feels like a good old fashioned squeeze. That 20 point candle turned into a 100 point run! VIX gone out of the money!!!

      1. It’s tricky because since Friday, DOW is loving the rallies after any news and then FTSE is just the puppy!

  25. Crude oil fall by 4.9M so oil is heading up now and divi time on FTSE.
    This is all confusing now, I guess I will wait for it to settle down!

    1. Well, I am sitting tight until 16:30!
      DAX on the other looking good to short around 70 area with 20pt stop

          1. I am going short straight after bell, we should be able to scalp atleast 20-30pt from FTSE

          3. Yeah, 65 will be a bit push but let’s wait and see.
            Anyone knows if we have DIVI on DAX today?

      1. Thanks buddy…..looking for a push higher now so i can play the short side for a change….

  29. First divi day for ages I haven’t scored at the close, tops off an awful day’s trading, short fixated, poor timing and indecisive. I think this prison of 6060/6200 is getting me stir crazy.
    Time for lastminute.com, go to the Red Sea and talk to the fish and probably get blown up.

      1. Just nipped out ,back now,I missed that 698…..I’m thinking it might go higher later so we can have another go at shorting it…..well done on that +30 pts Senu….nice one :0)

          1. Yeah me too 2 usd pp…..less stress wider stops and its Larry Williams Einstein formula….E = M x C 2. Emotions are equal to the money in your trading account x number of contracts we are trading….easier to take the negative feelings when it goes against you…still got my swing trades in the market so don’t want to go daft on size……done all that it just ends in tears :0)

  31. Hey there guys..

    My lcg account has ftsa at 6150 but ig has it at 6141.

    What the hells going on?

      1. Yeah out now at 701.1 for +31 points having a little relapse back off to watch Rande again later thanks Senu and good luck mate :0)

    1. Goodnight WSF hope you’ve landed some fish today……all the best buddy thanks for posting all the articles and info…..all good stuff gotta go got a watch Rande again:0)

    1. imo if you want to short wait until after the ECB mins and Draghi talk,maybe after Yellen tonight too.

        1. 🙂 Be really interesting when the U.S wakes up.Shame Germany has issues with banks and the FTSE is so close to R though.

          1. Maybe it’s 6200 breakthrough day……Dax is low enough….ECB meeting…..Draghi is muttering again and Dow (closed market I know,I know tmfp ;0)) but it’s pulled back… According to my metaphysics it’s an astronomical alignment :0) lol

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