Looking weak now 6000 on the way 6125 resistance

Support 6071 6029 6027 5995 5989
Resistance 6134 6141 6143 6179 6180 6194 6204
Good morning. What a day of wild swings that was yesterday, with the drop from 6145 resistance getting as far as 6100 before a rally to the 6190 level. Was just a little bit too tight with the stop on that short from the 10 day Bianca at 6184 as it popped up to the Raff channel instead at 6195 before dropping back down to 6100. I am quite suspicious of large inverted V moves like that as they always look like either a pump and dump or someone playing games. The BoE news was inline with expectations but growth forecast were lowered (always a good reason for a 100 point rally!). Chris Beauchamp, a senior market analyst at IG, cautioned that the weakness in London was “broad-based”. “It seems investors are heading for the exits once again, threatening a further unwind of the gains made since mid-February,” Mr Beauchamp added.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, set for a third weekly loss, as lackluster corporate earnings gave little cause for cheer at a time of worsening economic data. Crude oil retreated from a six-month high and South Korea’s won weakened, while haven assets including the Japanese yen and gold advanced.

All 10 industry groups dropped on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, with technology shares sliding to a two-month low after Nikkei reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s shipments of chips for Apple Inc.’s iPhones will shrink. The won led declines among emerging-market currencies as the yen clawed back some its weekly loss. Australia’s dollar slid to a two-month low on speculation the central bank will cut interest rates further this year. Crude fell toward $46 a barrel as copper slumped in Shanghai.

Bullish momentum in equities from a February low faltered this month, as signs of weakness in the global economy heightened concerns over whether central banks have the ability to boost growth. Almost 60 percent of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index members to have reported results for the last quarter announced sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday that risks to the Japanese economy are tilted to the downside and reiterated that monetary policy will be loosened further if needed.

“After the rally in March and April, things are still looking a little bit uncertain,” said Oliver Lee, investment director at Old Mutual Global Investors (Asia Pacific) Ltd. “There’s not much conviction in the market. The market is still being driven by central bank sentiment and currency movements. The earnings season in Japan hasn’t been great.”

Malaysia’s economic growth moderated in the first quarter and Hong Kong is forecast to also report a slowdown when it releases figures later on Friday. U.S. reports on Friday are projected to show retail sales increased in April for the first time this year and consumer sentiment climbed in May from a seven-month low. South Korea’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record low, a decision anticipated by 15 of 18 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Chinese figures for new loans and money supply will be released as early as Friday, while reports on industrial production and retail sales are scheduled for Saturday. Industrial output growth is expected to have cooled in April and new loans are estimated to be down more than 40 percent from March, Bloomberg surveys show.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent as of 1:40 p.m. Tokyo time, set for its lowest close in more than a month. TSMC dropped to its lowest in almost three months in Taipei after Nikkei reported that the company’s shipments of iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 chips in the second half of this year will likely be down at least 20 percent from the same period of 2015. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s largest maker of phones and memory chips, slipped more than 2 percent.

Japan’s Topix index fell 0.9 percent as the nation’s earnings season peaks on Friday, with more than 400 of the benchmark’s members reporting. The Shanghai Composite Index was headed for a fourth week of declines, the longest string of losses in two years, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was poised to enter a correction. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid to a two-month low.

Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent, after Apple — the world’s most valuable company — sank to the lowest since June 2014 in the last session. In Europe, Bouygues SA, Telecom Italia SpA and Hapag-Lloyd AG are among companies reporting earnings on Friday.

Commodities
West Texas intermediate crude was down 1 percent at $46.22 a barrel, after ending Thursday at a six-month high. Producers in Canada plan to resume operations at some oil-sands sites after wildfires took production offline, while Nigeria said militant attacks have cut output by as much as 600,000 barrels a day. U.S. inventories dropped by 3.4 million barrels last week, government data showed Wednesday.

Copper slumped to the lowest level in more than three months in Shanghai and headed for a third week of losses amid concern demand will cool in China, the top consumer. The nation’s steel futures have plunged 14 percent this week, the biggest ever such loss, after price surges over the last two months prompted authorities to clamp down on speculation in the commodities market.
Gold gained 0.2 percent, trimming this week’s loss to 1.7 percent.

Currencies
The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 108.74 per dollar, paring its weekly decline to 1.5 percent.

“We’re looking for further BOJ easing in July, but there’s always the risk that they might move in June,” said Shinichiro Kadota, a Tokyo-based foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Plc. “Those kind of policy expectations would support dollar-yen around the current levels of between 105 and 110.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, poised for a second weekly gain. Regional Federal Reserve chiefs for Boston and Kansas City argued at separate events Thursday that the U.S. central bank risks stoking an asset bubble by delaying raising interest rates for too long. The odds of a hike by year-end climbed to 53 percent from 48 percent on Wednesday, Fed Funds futures show.
The Aussie was down 0.4 percent, headed for a fourth weekly drop. Commonwealth Bank of Australia said policy makers will trim Australia’s key interest rate to 1.25 percent by year-end, from an all-time low of 1.75 percent now.

South Korea’s won declined 0.5 percent. The ringgit fell 0.2 percent after Malaysia reported its economic expansion slowed for a fifth quarter.

Bonds
U.S. Treasuries advanced, pushing the 10-year yield down by two basis points to a one-month low of 1.73 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Anyone superstitious?! Fairly simple plan for today really continuing the theme of shorting the rallies. I feel that we are probably going to test the bottom of the 10 day channels shortly, having dropped off the top of them yesterday. The bottom of the Bianca is at the 5989 area, with the 10 day Raff at 5970. The 6125 area looks like decent resistance and we dropped off the 25ema on the 30min last night at 6136, so a test of the red coral at 6126 would be good first thing. There are only so many times the bulls can defend 6100, and if this level goes then we should be on for a slide downwards to 6000 and beyond. The 2 hour chart is bearish again, with resistance at 6141 and 6143 so if we were to get this high then a short here is worth a go. So, feeling bearish still and shorting the rallies, with 6126, 6134 and 6143 looking like decent areas to go off.

63 Comments

  1. Morning all,U.S retail sales at 13.30, long if you are a conspiracy theorist then 🙂

  2. Looks like a good buying opportunity again.
    Bought 6065, 6070.
    Looking to atleast see the gap closed and possibly higher

  3. Morning.
    No more chuntering on about yesterday, apart from to say that it ended up with a bearish engulfing candle on both FTSE and DAX.
    6060 support is mainly due to its alliterative properties than the fact that it was the bottom of the tail of the last trip below 6100, which I think is now resistance.
    Currently the 60’s being bought and may well hold for this morning.
    DAX will have broken its 15 month long uptrend if it closes today below 9850 (depending on the thickness of your pencil).
    DOW is a bad session away from an important support zone around 17500 and poor data at 1.30 today could be a catalyst.

    A good link from WSF yesterday is a reminder that trading the FTSE as a “British economy” surrogate is a bad idea. Only 22% of FTSE companies get their revenue here.

    Shorted that bounce to 97 while typing on rsi/6100 resistance, took +10 on half and running the rest b/e.

    1. Added a bit more at 75, stop to pennies profit at 83, getting the rabidity out of my system early today 🙂

        1. Morning tmfp
          – Is anyone listening ?
          LoL – only joking ofcourse.
          🙂
          How you doin’
          Been busy this week so only had a scoot around yesterday – did I see somethin’ that you were asking about computa stuff…?
          Let me know – I’ll let you know that chappy that put my current computa together which has been fab ..totally quiet, 4 screens super fast -fab..

          1. Cheers Hugh, got a local guy or two to see over the weekend, I’ll see how that goes.
            What’s PRT etc, telling you around here?

          1. q/q european GDp worse than expected ,might have been the reason for he higher lows on the Dax,assuming it wasnt a secret earlier.

          2. If DAX loses 800 we could rock a bit on the downside I think, but mindnumbing at the mo.

  5. Morning guys !after good day yesterday with three of my order getting hit L@95, S@6190 and L@93 in evening, I thought of calling for the week but as its Friday and unexpected thing do happens on this day I m L@60!! stop previous low !! GL everyone

    1. Looks like everyone made money out of that +100 yesterday apart from me lol.
      What previous low is that mate 54?

      1. Hey TMPF !! Sorry to hear that you were not able to cash yesterday ! But In your words everyday is new day … 🙂 Yes it was but came out @ 65… I wont short today as I am scared of bears ..

      1. lol, shame they brew p*ss isn’t it?
        Couldn’t resist adding at 74, stop at 85, seeing as I won’t be back in time for the catastrophically awful figures at 1.30, limit 6028 🙂

  7. Morning Chaps,
    Quiet hey – thought I’d just do some art !
    FTSE Daily Chart from 7:00 Hrs – 21:00 Hrs
    Trend across tops (24 Hr Data)
    On the basis that there will be a relief rally on the referendum
    and that the FTSE has to position itself for this.
    This will provide the ideal position for the Summer slumbers
    normally anticipated late July early August.
    For a slow build to the close.
    Included GAPS where appropriate.
    Chart Here
    http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=kw930dft50f2cl9ap8qhn1wry&type=png&purpose=file

    1. Thanks Hugh,under a weight of drivel until June 23rd seems about right,just up to the U.S to show us the boundaries they want.

      1. should have stuck to my plan !! ANyways cant complain for good week it sbeen !!

      1. Thanks,hope you have a good weekend too,nice morning,think the rain has stopped now too.

  12. Hi I got a bit curious….what was going on so here’s one for you tmfp….Short Ftse at 6124……

      1. Oh and in the interest of transparency.i got long this morning between 72 and 77 ….7 positions x4 closed the lot at 6120 but before that I lost 7 x 10 pts each overall but overall I put another 1k in the account…right not pushing my luck anymore……..Best of luck WSF if you are doing battle.good luck chaps and well done Sharma :0) see you next week…..oh I said on Thursday already didn’t I ……. Bye chaps ….

  13. Hello again chaps.
    I see my master plan failed and the Yanks dragged us over 6100, such is life.
    Looking like it’s going to be another long tailed daily candle around 6100/6200, have a look back to March, hundreds of them. A graphic representation of Muhammed Ali’s Rope a Dope.
    Talking of long candle tails, yesterday’s was the biggest negative one for a while and I guess it would be nice for the upside if we at least matched that close of 104.
    I’d think this 6110/20 will probably hold till our close and maybe rally a bit further, would suit the bulls and there may be a bit of end week short covering.

    1. That obviously dependent on the DOW not falling out of bed in the meantime, which it is showing signs of doing, but I’m sure it will be fine.

  16. I couldn’t resist……a little long at 101.2 Ftse….bit daft this late on Friday but only small.

        1. Of course you can chippy…..well the Dow is 17532….that’s comparativelly low….it’s my opinion that it will get bought towards the close……it might not but that’s what I’m thinking…it’s not beyond me in size so figured I’d play my hunch….I can always dump it if I need too……just have to see what happens …..no sweat….have a great weekend if we don’t speak again this week…….

          1. its also to lock in my gains on my Dow short by hedgeing the Ftse againts the Dow….

          2. Good luck sunshine but sat here it seems that 6130 is as far as it’ll go up whereas 6050 is downside so I understand your thoughts (don’t necessarily think you are right) but it seems you’ve had a good couple of days and I wouldn’t want you to piss it away! In terms of leave some for the other bloke….. You made a grand today, if that was a weeks money that is 40 odd grand a year which is nice……isn’t it?

  17. Ahh right you got in before me ……..don’t hedge TAKE THE MONEY!!!!! Good luck anyway, have a good night and a good weekend!

  18. By the way, it isn’t a hedge….. Just look at ftse Dow difference, you can get it on IG, see how much it swings around.

    1. No I know it’s not a hedge in the strict term but I’ve gained an additional chunk on this dow short so if it goes back up it will help to compensate a little bit.

  19. I’ve had a good week this week chippy….3k up in total…..helps to make up for some of the bad times….been out to see if I can get a copy of technical analysis trading the financial markets by John Murphy but my library doesn’t have it so I think I will treat myself…. It’s about £60 and about £22 for the study guide…..I’d like to have a nosey at it first though……..

  21. Sorry matey, I’m not trying to be negative and 3 grand is a nice effort. I think what I’m trying to say is forget yesterday, forget previous p and l and get on with next week! Just imagine what you’d be doing next year if you get 3 a week from now! Small targets=big rewards

    1. Thanks chippy it sounds good but I’m rebuilding my account….I’ve had a really bad year since the Greek crisis……still sometimes it’s the price of admission to the university of hard knocks and you guys on here have been a great support…..I almost gave up when I got on the wrong side of a trade when the Paris thing happened…I couldn’t even place a £1 trade….Its been a really hard ride to stay in the game but I’m hoping it will be worth it long term….have a great weekend chippy….that little trade cost me a tenner …..but it was worth a shot….catch you next week.

  22. Finally, in the spirit of putting my co** in the custard, just shorted at 98 for the weekend. Cheers mate and good luck, have a good weekend.

  23. Out at 98.3 and 98.5…….didn’t get past the 100 sma on the 2 min….one was +2.7 pts the other was -2.7 pts……never mind it was worth a try……good weekend all…..

  25. What with all the doom and gloom looks like it’s time to go long again then WSF…..what do you do with a hot news flash…and all that :0)

    1. Some of these charts look pretty negative,double tops and Heads and Shoulders,so if it doesnt turn early in the week it could take a couple of weeks to turn back up.There was a story from last week about possible Chinese stimulus,not much on the calendar as a catalyst though.I’ve got a lot going on until Thursday,so I dont think I’ll do much before then,maybe the U.S afternoon session.Dow is right in its support,Volumes are low,everyone is Bearish seems worth 17300 17100’s at least.My first trade of the yr was an ASX long on Jan 3rd and it lasted a few minutes and my notes say it was a late entry and early exit,Asx looks good since April,but it only got back to the price of that scalp on Tues and I was bearish about ASX then.Ftse has closed below the height of its Golden Cross from mid April so below its 200sma too.I reckon wait for them to announce they have saved Greece or whatever its going to be and reduce the stress or the holding charges if it just repeats the whole of March.

      1. Thanks WSF……I have looked at the charts and from my limited knowledge of them I can see it all looks like it’s on the downturn….The 10 and 20 biancas are in downward channels too…
        ..like we have seen in the past bad news can be good sometimes but yes I do think it could fall further….. I’m thinking best policy for me is to wait and watch till mid Monday morning…then only trade small size if at all till I can hopefully get a feel for some sort of trend….I don’t want to give these gains back so it’s time to be cautious and reel in the risk….If in doubt stay out I think….it can be addictive though can’t it and sometimes we just want to get a trade on but I think this is where the disapline comes in….It might well be a good time to find a distraction ……gardening.decorating.anything around the place to take focus away from the market and watch from a distance….Thanks for your advice….catch up later …..have a good day……

  26. been at work today and flashed up my computer, habit checked ig, found the Sunday trading, what a load of tosh. However, it seems all gets netted off if you leave a position open so just to test I closed my drunk short from Friday night at 87 for plus 11. See if that plan worked on Monday morning!!!

    1. Nice +11 chippy ,on city you can’t trade till 11pm tonight at the earliest…..I really liked your comment on Friday chippy…..small targets …big rewards…catch you in the week.

    1. Thanks for posting the chart Hugh,it’s very informative ….good luck in the week….hope it’s a better week for you than the last one.

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