Asia rises 6092 support 6185 resistance

Support 6110 6100 6092 6056 6041 5984
Resistance 6127 6170 6182 6188 6232
Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. The bulls managed push up on Friday from that 6060 low but the 200ema at 6130 held as resistance for a dip just below 6100. However, that 6090 level has held as support since, and we are currently around the 6120 area as I write this. If the bulls can break 6130 and hold above that then we might well be on for a push towards 6180. If the bears are quick out the blocks then 6000 looms large.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose from a one-month low and South Korea’s won weakened after data painted a mixed picture of the world’s two biggest economies. Crude oil climbed to the highest since November and gold advanced.

Japanese equities rallied on optimism a sales tax hike will be delayed, while Shanghai shares fluctuated near a two-month low after a raft of disappointing Chinese data. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to this quarter’s high after a jump in American retail sales bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Thailand’s baht gained after economic growth beat estimates, while the zloty strengthened after Moody’s Investors Service refrained from lowering Poland’s credit rating. Oil traded near $47 a barrel in New York, while precious metals rallied.

China’s retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data released on Saturday were worse than economists forecast. The nation’s central bank moved to reassure investors that monetary policy would continue to support the economy, issuing a weekend statement that sought to explain a slump in new credit last month. Japan’s economy will be in focus this week, with a gross domestic product report forecast to show the country narrowly avoided falling into a recession in the first quarter. Earnings are due from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Japan Steel Works Ltd.

“Global growth remains fragile and uncertainty lingers around the Fed and China,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages about $116 billion. “A June or July Fed rate hike still looks unlikely, but there is a reasonable chance of a September hike.”

The odds of a U.S. rate increase by September are 34 percent, Fed Funds futures show. BlackRock Inc. — the world’s biggest money manager — turned bearish on short-term U.S. Treasuries last week, saying traders have gone too far in discounting the chances of a rate hike this year.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent as of 12:34 p.m. Tokyo time. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.3 percent from a two-month low and Japan’s Topix index gained 0.9 percent. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will postpone a planned sales tax increase as the economy struggles and the country recovers from earthquakes in the southern part of the nation last month, the Nikkei newspaper reported over the weekend.

Currencies
The won sank 0.5 percent versus the greenback as China’s data dimmed prospects for exports to South Korea’s biggest export market. Malaysia’s ringgit weakened as much as 0.5 percent, before paring losses as oil rallied. The Southeast Asian nation is the region’s only major net exporter of crude. The yuan rose less than 0.1 percent.

“Weakness in the latest Chinese economic figures has dampened appetite for emerging-market assets,” said Jeon Seung Ji, a Seoul-based currency analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. “Retail data renewed speculation of a U.S. rate hike, and this has turned the dollar stronger.”

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was headed for its highest close since March as the greenback gained 0.2 percent versus the Japanese yen. U.S. retail sales climbed in April by the most in 13 months and a gauge of consumer confidence surged in early May to an almost one-year high, reports showed Friday.

The baht strengthened as much as 0.3 percent after the release of Thailand’s GDP data. The economy expanded 3.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, more than the 2.8 percent growth forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Poland’s zloty climbed 0.6 percent against the dollar after Moody’s surprised most analysts by leaving Poland’s credit rating unchanged at a review. The assessment was kept at A2, the fifth-lowest investment grade, though the outlook was lowered to negative for the first time in a decade.

Bonds
The yield on Australian 10-year bonds fell to a record-low 2.2 percent, 32 basis points below its level at the end of April. The Reserve Bank of Australia, which this month cut its cash rate to an unprecedented 1.75 percent, has said core inflation will probably miss the bottom of its 2 percent to 3 percent target range this year and may undershoot into the middle of 2018.

Commodities
Crude oil rose 1.3 percent to $46.84 a barrel in early trading Monday, after Friday’s 1.1 percent loss. China’s refineries processed crude at record rates in April, helping ease a supply glut as the number of active rigs in the U.S. declines. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have had a fairly bullish Asian session overnight, and looking at the ASX200 would suggest that the FTSE is likely to climb today. The key will be the 6092 area holding as support, especially on any early weakness. If it does then we will quite possibly get a rise towards the 6180 resistance area, as there are a few bigger timeframe levels here to watch. This includes the 25ema on the daily, the 10 day Raff and and the Bianca channels. The bulls might have a bit of a struggle truing to push past 6200. That said, the 2 hour chart is still bearish, with the red coral providing resistance at 6127, so if the bulls don’t do anything to start with then a drop through 6090 is pretty likely, with a drop to 6041 and possibly 5984 on the cards. Be worth shorting a break of the 6092 support area for a run down, though I haven’t put this in the trade plan. Basically if the long gets stopped, flip to short. The German Dax is closed today just so you know. So, for today, the key levels to look at at 6092 and 6185.

78 Comments

  1. Morning chaps…….so far I have scalped 66.1 pts this morning x3……big thanks to chippy for instilling in me to TAKE THE MONEY……good luck guys….

    1. Presently short at 13 at the moment but ready to bail if the steamroller comes out.

    2. Stunning stuff anstel, 66 pts in a 30 pt range, giss some tips?

      Good hold there of Nick’s 92, be interesting to see what we do this morning with Europe basically shut. Should be reasonably strong given our recent comparative resilience.
      I remember when we had Whit Monday off too, Google tells me it was moved to the end of May in the Banking and Financial Dealings Act 1971.
      Basically, the celebration of the beginning of the Church that was started by the guy that threw the money lenders out of his Father’s temple has been moved for the convenience of…. the money lenders.

      Dow had a sniff at that 174/500 support I’ve been muttering on about for a while after that hefty closing sell off Friday. If it’s going to stay in its nearly month long declining channel, should bounce to 17700+ this week.

      1. Well you will think I’m daft tmfp but it’s just a feel for the market…..I can’t explain really but if you remember ages ago you had a trade short on RSI divergence…..you took the trade …I didn’t but I had exactly the same feel for the market but you hadn’t explained RSI divergence to me at that point…..this morning I haven’t looked at RSI once just the SMAs and watching the closed Dow and the Dax chart for clues….doesn’t always work but I think I’m beginning to think faster on my feet now abit too….good luck today matey….

        1. I don’t think you’re daft anstel, was just interested in your weekend reincarnation as scalper from Buffet wannabe 😉
          Good stuff, keep it up, just be totally ruthless with cutting losses, no bunging stuff that doesn’t work out into a box for later.

          1. yes the swing trade idea doesn’t seem to be working in this market at the moment so I’m going to try intraday and scalping……and leave the buffet stuff for the time being….thanks yes cutting losses is an area I’m erratic in…….The first cut is the cheapest…….it’s in my trading rules but sometimes I don’t take the loss….still working on it…..thanks for your help…..

  2. Going for a cuppa I think it’s going to make its mind up soon so time to sit back ..

    1. Morning anstel
      quite impressive trading.
      where did you enter to get 66 points?
      the ftse has hardly moved half of that.

      1. I can post all the trades later if you like but not now just ask if you want and I can post a bit later on.

    1. Held well as seemed likely, next hurdle on the upside 28/30, already showing signs of a bit of a grind up.

  5. Trades this morning..some before 8am..

    Ftse long 16.2……. Sold 18.5…. +2.3
    Long 10.5…….sold 11…….+0.5
    Long 102……..sold 103.5..+1.5
    Long. 94.1……sold. 103.1. +9
    Long. 90.8……sold. 102.6. +12.6
    Short 106…….bought 105.4 +0.6
    Long 106……..sold. 116. + 10
    Long 105.8…..sold. 116 + 10.2
    Long 105.8…..sold. 116.9 +11.1
    Long 105.9……sold. 116.1 +10.2
    Short 112.8….bought 112 +0.8
    Long 111.3 …..sold 113.5 +2.2

    Dax long at 88.6 sold 93.6 + 5.

    That’s each of the trades all the 4 106 105.8 x2 and 105.9 where at the same time …Good luck matey…

      1. Well I was trying to get that 1000 pt trade on Dax …..got about 650 pts and I let it go…..cost me about 3k euros in lost profit…..got out for a small gain…stupid….I’ve done it many many times…..there comes a time when the penny finally drops……I had it etched in my brain it was going higher…..I’m finally getting my brain to be like water and flow with the market instead of having pre conceived ideas…..tmfp has been telling me that for ages but I couldn’t seem to change my thinking…..

  6. Morning guys !! Hope you had nice weekend !! Last night L@6085 closed @6127!! Currently L@6100 since this morning .i think will look to hold till around 6150-60. Have a good day

  7. Morning All, Good man anstel, good work. Dunno what is going on or rather my crystal ball is a bit misty so sit on my hands – however I have bought a little bit of Ftse/dow difference at 11420. Good luck all

    1. Hey chippy I can’t thank you enough…..that take the money is finally sinking in….thanks a lot for keeping reminding me…good luck today matey….

      1. Anstel
        your trades – around the 105-106 area.
        there are multiple trades – what made you trade like that?
        why not just a single trade?
        But whatever, great trading!

        1. Don’t know …..I just feel the market and at that point I was thinking yes it’s got some upward pressure let’s pile on some risk….it seemed like the best thing to do at the time…..sorry I can’t give you a technical reason…..

  8. Hi, I was astonished at quite a high minumum initial pot into the mirroring account (£5000). I was thinking of a lower sum tbh. Why the starting investment was set so high?

      1. I will bear that in mind. Just one more question if you don’t mind, what would be the av. stake for the minimum amount stated above? £1-2 p/point? It would be great to know. Thank you.

  9. Re the recent unresponsiveness of Nick’s site on my creaky soon-to-be-charity-shop computer system, installed a decent ad blocker et voila, problem solved.

  10. I’m thinking tmfp is right…. A grind up so I’ve taken an exploratory long at 24……

    1. Funnily enough I was just thinking that is where it will probably go to sleep for a while, so dumped a small long and currently hovering over the sell button for 10 either way.

      1. Shouldn’t have hovered too long….
        Another look at the 10/12 area, probably hold temporarily, but needs to bounce a bit quick, most likely reading too much into it but safe to chalk up high 20’s as a bridge too far for this morning.

        1. A 2 point bounce… 🙁
          Next mini support around here 04, otherwise we start eating into the opening reversal and maybe testing 92, which is par for an unchanged DOW later.
          Got a bit of life, bounced off that ok so far, regain and hold 14+ next target.

  11. Quite revealing how quiet the Financial Capital of the World is when Europe’s on hols.
    Nothing here for me, off to do some real life stuff.

    1. It’s held that 14 level alright.
      I haven’t even got a DAX window open. A bit of money went into pre market DOW, 12.30 breakfast rally.
      Just opened a DAX chart, looks like a Jackson Pollock painting. If you can read that, you’re wasted here, should get a stall on Brighton seafront, “Madam Anstel will read your Palm”.
      😉

      1. How’s the slightly long term scalp longs going, take any profit on that bounce or are they edging towards “the box”?

        Fwiw I think long’s the right way round to be going into 14.30.

        1. Yeah you know me……they are edging towards the box…..I did consider taking some profit on the bounce though…had four positions in the blue…..I still think it’s going up ….holding ….

          1. Hey it’s great on here……always something new to learn….I’d never even heard of Jackson Pollock….just googled him…..famous drip paintings or something……can’t wait for the next pub quiz …I’ll clean up if I can remember all of tmfps General knowledge……

  14. Well this is a laugh…….I think I could have nodded off for 3 hours and nothing has changed. Anyway, no science to it whatsoever but think the nice American people will try and re-take 600 and don’t think we’ll get much above 30, so tiny long of the dow at 55 and cranked up the difference long.
    Cheers

    1. Nope, might have got that wrong, chopped the dow for -12, will run the difference trade.

        2. That would have been properly funny had I not been trying to eat my lunch – not hungry anymore!!!

  15. Not hugely significant in the context of a pointless morning, but as you are aware, 14 broke and withstood a rally attempt, 04 looks like a garden gate but just holding. Another long may be in order in the 90’s pre DOW.
    All depends on how you see the DOW opening really. As Friday’s sell off close could be seen as a bit of end week book squaring it’s debatable that it would continue much, so a bit of an opening dead cat? rally that drags us up looks a likely scenario.
    Or, if you still fancy the upside, an opening trip down straight away to the 400’s would mean some cheap FTSE on offer. It is “Bull Monday” after all.

    1. tmfp
      RSI s working well today – L 6093 – out to early. L 6106 out to early .
      Got to be quick though – hence why I don’t worry about posting.
      (When you get your new computa – you might consider PRT charts – it does it for you !)

      High spirits today as I enjoy Songs and Dances of Ukraine for a bit of light and shade …Lol

      1. Yeah, been a bit cautious with rsi today but it usually works in this ranging stuff, just wondering whether to dump a 04 long here (dumped @14) picked up on the last 15 rsi visit. I’ve given up trade by trade posting, just do a bit when something interesting happens.
        I have PRT charts but if I did the auto trade malarkey she’d find out and I’d have to build something in the garden instead.
        If that’s a UrineVision reference, does not compute.

        1. You could always put a few extra hours in with your Tug Toner…
          UrineVision reference 🙂

  18. Got the DOW bounce then, Bull Monday in full swing at last, probably a bit of resistance around 640.

  20. Chopped dow too early, never mind, sold difference at 39 for loads! All looks a bit familiar so sit back and relax is my plan now.

  21. Ftse longs 6125…..out at 6142.5……+17.5pts
    6124.5..out at 6142.5……+18pts
    6124.3..out. At 6142.5……+18.2pts
    6123.6..out. At 6142.5…….+18.7pts
    6123.4..out. At 6142.1……..+18.5pts
    6116.5..out. At. 6142.3…….+25.8pts
    6116.5..out. At. 6142……….+25.5pts
    6113…out. At. 6141.5…….+28.5pts

    All x4. Good day so far…

      1. Blimey I’ve done well over a quarter of last weeks total already….time to be very careful….might even go out and switch pc off now….

          1. More jam than Harley’s…..I’d be dangerous if I knew what I was doin…..:0)

          2. When you think about Anstel – it looks like you’ve actually “traded” more – or made more decisions and sub conciously, continually assessed the strength of entry points. This is the one thing that I certainly have tried to work on – trade more.
            (It reminds me why I don’t really like trading shares – you generally know in a day or two if you’ve done the right or wrong thing and then you’re thinking – “sod it” !
            You just can’t keep changing your stance on shares that easily)

        2. Yep, good idea. Nice cup of tea and stroll, come back tomorrow and to coin “someone”‘s phrase…”rinse and repeat”. You are getting the hang of this fellah!!

          1. Cheers chippy….big thanks to you matey for knocking some sense into me….and like tmfp says it’s only profit when the trades closed…..Yes I’m going out now….I will leave it a few hours and come back later to see where the dust has settled…thanks guys…good luck everybody….

        3. By the way anstel, massive example of what I’ve been saying – The dow/ftse diff is now 11470 something, so I could have held and got another 30 points however I am risk free with a load of wedge in my pocket!

          1. I wish I’d listened earlier but I couldn’t seem to change my thinking….it was like I was stuck with pre conceived targets….I suppose that’s why it can take 2 -4 yrs to be consistant…..learning how to think on your feet…and not get too married to stuff……..

  22. Just looking a little tired after the DOW touched 40, short term ftse support now 24/28, bit middle of nowhere otherwise till we get to 50+.

    1. tmfp, its got to 50+, I’d love to short it but am feeling a bit nervous, what do you reckon?

      1. DOW’s a bit of a train at the mo mate, nothing much to say that it won’t continue, there’s plenty of room re: the channel I mentioned earlier.
        It’s also gone through last week’s downtrend this afternoon.
        Otoh, they’ve only been open a couple of hours and the strength could evaporate later.
        Not a huge amount to go for really, I’d wait and see what tmrw brings..

    1. Closed both at 72.1 and 72.3 for + 3.7pts and +1.4pts…..good to practice shorts for me though…..

  24. Morning chaps got long first thing at 71.6 and 71.8….just closed both at 78.8 for +7.2pts and +7pts…..

  25. Morning anstel, nice little “nick” first thing. I’m in the BTD camp from now so bought some at 82, 80, 77. Having berated you for the last week or 2 to take profits my plan is not to! I’ll let half go at some stage but I really think that we could get a bit of a run – the one I was thinking about last week to 6300 ish. Good luck sunshine and keep up the good work.

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