Lockdown looming | 5182 5250 resistance | 4945 4860 | Sterling falls below 115

Lockdown looming | 5182 5250 resistance | 4945 4860 | Sterling falls below 115

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th March 2020

Markets plunged again as fear continued to drive away investors, but the seas of red of the past few days were not quite so widespread, with more equities registering gains. While the FTSE 250 – seen as a better representation of British business, thanks to less foreign representation than its blue-chip big brother – still declined 6.6pc to 13,008.19, it did contain some notable gainers.

The fall in sterling against the dollar to $1.14 – its lowest level since the Eighties – failed to help either. Normally a drop in sterling makes UK equities cheaper but even bargain prices failed to give them a boost.

The Dow Jones fell 6.3pc (a fall of more than 1,300 points) to 19,898.92. The S&P 500 dropped 5.2 pc to finish at 2,398.24, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 4.7pc to 6,989.84.

London’s benchmark index closed 4.05pc lower to 5,080.58 while the FTSE 250 tumbled 6.58pc to close at 13,008.19.

For some positive news, the Chinese city where the coronavirus outbreak started, Wuhan, reports zero new infections for the first time.

Shifting Epicenters

Europe surpassed China in the number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths Wednesday as Italy reported its deadliest day. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Europe’s total of more than 85,000 infections exceeds China’s 80,900. Europe has also reported just under 4,000 deaths from Covid-19, compared with about 3,200 in China. Italy’s death count alone is 2,978. On Wednesday, Italy reported 475 deaths from the virus. That’s the highest death toll reported in a day by any country since the virus originated in Wuhan, China, late last year. China recorded its highest single-day death toll of 150 on Feb 23.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Yesterday’s gains enabled the FTSE to test 5200 out of hours last night. However with resistance there, the bears reappeared and we have tested 4850 again overnight as once again he US futures sold off. However, as per the last test of this level we have seen a decent bounce and are back above 5000 as I write this. That was also a decent hold of S2.

For today, should we get another drop down then the daily support just above this at 4862 may well hold. Below that then a drop down to 4792 would be the next leg. That said, the 2 hour chart has remained bullish for the moment with the moving average currently at 4949. If the bulls can keep it above this then it bodes well for a retest of the 5200 level and the top of the 10 day channel at 5235.

Resistance initially today is a bit lower, with the key fib level at 5178 and daily resistance at 5182. As such we may well see any rise stall here, at least initially. The 5230 level does look appealing for a short though later on.

With regards to the virus, we are probably still a week away from the peak, and hopefully the measures taken so far may well flatten the curve as intended. All need to play our part that’s for sure. Better a short sharp shock for two weeks. Schools are closed as of tomorrow.

So again, expect a wild ride, and I am watching 5180 and 5230 as resistance. 4950 and 4862 as support for today.

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