Got the 6790… is that it or does slightly higher beckon?

Good morning, the FTSE felt like it spent most of the day doing not a lot yesterday with a slow drift up after nearly getting to the 6736 are (it stopped at 6746) and then proceeded to take all day till 9pm to hit the 6790 area I was waiting for! Since hitting that level we have dipped a little but it doesn’t feel too bearish just yet. There is still a possibility of 6815, maybe even 6830 before it really kicks in but the general vibe is that all is good at the moment. Just need the press to start getting bullish and a few articles about now being the time to buy shares for the year-end rally and that will be the catalyst for the dip! 6815 is the top of the 10 day Bianca channel so worth a short today if seen. 6753 is support so if that breaks then the bears could start to gain some control. Feels like they are still hibernating at the moment!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks outside Japan dropped for a fourth day before China’s leaders meet to map out the nation’s economic policies. Australia’s dollar weakened while copper snapped three days of losses.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slid 0.3 percent by 2:24 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for the longest stretch of losses in more than two months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.6 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. Copper added 0.5 percent while natural gas declined for a fourth day. Australia’s currency weakened 0.4 percent versus the dollar and the yen climbed 0.2 percent.

China’s leaders will meet in Beijing Nov. 9-12 to discuss a blueprint for reform as the country heads for its slowest annual growth in more than two decades. Australia’s central bank kept its key rate at a record-low 2.5 percent today and said the currency was still “uncomfortably high.” The U.S. Institute for Supply Management issues its non-factory measure today.

“All eyes are on the third party plenum this weekend,” Tim Moe, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg Television. “The market has priced in a fair amount of expectation about this and therefore from a tactical standpoint, the market is vulnerable.”

USA

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said yesterday the nation should resume normal monetary policy as soon as possible. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month of bonds to bolster the world’s largest economy and damp borrowing costs.

The ISM non-manufacturing composite index for the U.S. will drop to 54.0 for October from 54.4 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

A government report Nov. 7 is forecast by economists to show the U.S. economy grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with a 2.5 percent increase in the previous three months. Economists predict a report the next day will show payrolls climbed by 120,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous month, according to a separate survey.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Today’s pivot is 6759 so I expect that to act as initial support, and with the lack of any major bear action off 6790 I expect that we may well break through 6800 early this morning. I have the top of the Bianca 10 day at 6815 though so I feel that a short there is a fairly decent bet. that said, as with the Dax, we are within a pretty decent ProTrend channel on the 30 minute chart, with the extremes at 6805 and 6763, so a long at the bottom of that range (and also the pivot) could also be a bet worth taking.

90 Comments

  2. Thanks Nick. I’m not a regular poster on this site, but I do use it and check it a lot. Find it useful to hear others opinions and how that compares with my own trading plan, especially your daily posts. Just like to say thanks for keeping this great site going and keep it up!!!!! I owe you a few drinks that’s for sure.

  4. Given the price action we have seen so far today do you think we can break below 6700 and head down to 6400? Is this the bear action people have been fearing?
    Very difficult to call a turning point in a trend but given the small volumes could this be it?

  5. FTSE #FTSE100, so it’s all about to stay above T-line at the close for a resume uptrend

  8. FTSE/30 mins. – This looks like a decisive reversal out of the upward Raff channel operative since Nov 01. Will it rupture support at 6720 this time? I rather think it might.

      1. if not. I see the 6660 level as the final target after it reaches the 6670 bear flag target

  9. 6725 and 6685 are the supports I am watching now 6750 has broken. Could be the start of the dip for the next couple of weeks before the Santa rally starts at the end of November. Good call for 6790 though – should have ridden that a bit longer!

    1. I do not trade based on crystal balls. If we do not resume this uptrend now today, no one knows when will do. Next month, next year….

    2. Hi Nick, i saw huge futures orders go through at cash equivalent price of 6720. a few days ago. market has reacted around that level ever since. one size was 2,500 and 1,600 from memory.

  10. went short last night at 6789 with a limit at 6748…..was scared to let it run as im at uni now so i couldnt really monitor it. Good amount of points though all smiles-but where to next

        1. jack tow dont depend to much on my jugement that is just my thinking could just go the poosite as well

  14. Don`t really think we are in an all out bear market, just a slow downtrend. I said this week will end negatively.
    Hope you got your points, Senu?

    Nice one, Nick – though you are always one step ahead of yourself lol

  16. 6 points as I understand it. On current price action I think the ftse has found its level at 6725 today. Looking foward I do believe there is a lot of support at this level and so I’d humbly suggest more risk to the upside. Interesting day. Any differing views?

  17. If we not close above the 6745 level, then we are at beginning of major sell off and a top as starting to appear. Any bounces are only bull traps

  20. If I new it, I would be in the bottom waiting.
    You need to start again looking to see a reversal, i.e. signs, which most of them are traps.
    But looking at this indice, which has not yet conquest the May’s top, it looks more bearish than DAX or other indices, for any downtrend.

    1. there is a guy InterMarketAnalysis ‏@Trader_Aadil who wrongly identified that candle in Oct 31 daily close.
      I had a argument with him about that.
      Today yes this candle already engulf prices from yesterday, but the close is more important.

      1. Yes I too am waiting for the close before I decide which way to go. anything around the 6720-30 region is a short for me.

  27. I guess the good thing about long term trading, those traps don`t catch you out.
    Btw is IG the only platform that allows you to trade both ways?

    1. I did not understand the 2nd paragraph.
      I usually stay with positions from intraday to 3 days the most.
      THis time I stayed as a swing trade. I had a target in the 6840.
      It seems I missed it. But I’m still holding the positions.
      I really was very optimistic about this trend.
      I’m talking in the past, but I can be talking in the present if we close above T-line

      1. You`ve chosen the trade that you can`t lose. I can`t disagree, but for the while I am trying to jump up on this little dip, as I have a position since wednesday last week at 6802.

        I meant to say does any platform allow you to trade buy and sell on the same market simultaneously?

          1. Still am, though closed out 10pp for 60pips last week.
            I am looking for 6600, before I try go long. Either way, I have stops @ breakeven.

  28. A bit messy day today. Only longs but in general profit, just now managed to close the last of the longs but the profits today just +10 points. Lucky bounce. A bit sad that I could be long.

  30. Still holding my short from last week at 6770. This drop is taking forever. Really need to break 6720 properly soon.

  31. Yesterday I was so confident with the overnight futures that I was starting thinking in moving soon my trail stop to 6759

      1. Yes. The trend will resume in my humble view. But my positions are already open from the 6500 level and trail top at 6692.

  33. FTSE going to be either sideways or up tomorrow, my view 6700 will break from thursday to friday this week.

    1. Seconded, I think we might restest 6720 at one point today/tomorrow and see 6700 break later this week.

  34. VERY STRANGE INDEED.
    Anyone experienced the same ?
    In CFD the price did not reach the 6740 level and in the Cash the price was in 6746.
    Now 16:36 CFDs struggling to surpass the 6743

  35. in Cash 6746,84. I’m optimistic. But very strange behavior in CFD’s. Never saw that

  36. The prices in CFd tend to follow the cash very close.
    Today I saw some divergence between cash and CFD’s.
    But what matters is the cash FTSE.
    So the T-line remains intact, even so a bit weaker, in a limbo.

    1. will I see 6840. Now I doubt it seriously. I may try to sell in a huge bounce before it stops at 6692

  42. Wow returning to daily pivot, I’m so for the drop before close, just waiting for a giveaway candlestick.

  43. DOW until I see close below 15540. Short is very risky.
    I sense we are for new highs

  44. Sam, a 20 point stop loss is way too tight to trade Dow. I’ve been long ftse but mainly Dow, buying dips and although I think this is going up I’d be wary of holding an overnight position. Markets taking a breather after such a parabolic climb but could easily take off again

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