Go the bulls…. 6810?

Good morning, despite the bears best efforts to really break that 6725 the bulls held on and in fact fought back pretty well.  the key was for a close above 6745 (just achieved) so I think we will see 6810 next, being the top of the 10 day Bianca channel, and the bear charge is again slightly delayed.  News out yesterday was the best PMI since 1997 in the UK ironically triggering the drop we saw from the 6790 level. US data out later this week on economic growth and employment will have more of an impact.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, snapping a four-day drop on the regional equities benchmark, as Japanese shares were boosted by the yen weakening against the dollar and Commonwealth Bank of Australia posted a surge in profit.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 141.39 as of 12:29 p.m. in Hong Kong as nine of the 10 industry groups on the measure advanced. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.9 percent today and is the best-performing developed equity market in 2013 amid optimism Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies and Bank of Japan monetary easing will stoke inflation.

“It’s a very favorable state for equities,” Richard Lewis, who helps oversee $261 billion as the head of global equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, told Bloomberg TV from Melbourne. “Japan and the Abenomics story, and the real drive to get some domestic inflation through the system, is still certainly attractive.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 9 percent this year through yesterday amid unprecedented stimulus from Japan’s central bank and optimism the Federal Reserve will continue its monthly bond buying into 2014.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.4 percent today. The S&P 500 has rallied almost 24 percent in 2013, challenging 2009 for its best yearly gain in a decade. The gauge yesterday slid 0.3 percent, snapping a two-day winning streak, as investors awaited this week’s data on economic growth and employment.

European Growth

The European Union yesterday cut its forecast for euro-area growth next year and raised its unemployment estimate as the economy struggles to regain momentum after a record-long recession.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Yesterday’s short order for 6810 didn’t take however I might just have been a day early with that and we see that level today. With the 6725 area holding (albeit with a slight dip below) the bulls have regained the momentum for the moment though data later this week might upset that apple cart. Today’s pivot level is 6743 (and yesterday close at 6746) should act as support on any initial dips. However if that level, and also yesterday’s low of 6708 fail to hold then 6675 is likely to be the next area of support. Certainly the Bianca trends are favourable for a bit more up for the moment, with 20 day support at 6744 and 10 day at 6725. Tomorrow and Friday might be a different story though, and could be bearish, maybe with poor data being the catalyst for that.

79 Comments

  1. FTSE/5 mins. – Raff channel since 08:00 negative. Index appears to be losing momentum now.
    FTSE/30 mins. – Raff channel since 15:00 yesterday still positive, but index flat since about 04:00 this morning. Now below central LinReg.
    FTSE/1 hr. – Std. error channel from October 30 high slightly negative. Index just above central LinReg, momentum appears to have peaked.
    Current hunch – Negative drift continues, leading perhaps to a re-test of c6720.

    2. Sam, the Dow did lose 50 pts. off its high of yesterday evening. But it has now re-launched itself into the upwards std. error channel extant since October 31 (1 hr. timeframe). My current expectation is that it will break out (upwards) of this channel within 10 hrs. and that this process will begin within the next hour or two. Just my opinion of course! GL.

      2. I hope you right. Ftse has just close below T-Line, with Dow in highs.
        F*** FTSE
        We are going down, and I’m still in, hoping for a rally

        1. Are you kidding me ? Dow has just done today an all-time high.
          And what did the British ?

    1. I’m in hibernation. Do not daytrade more than over a month because of this position I have.

  12. And if I’m right (I hate to be right), we may go for few tricky sessions until the end of week.
    WIth that close today below T-Line coming from a monthly strong uptrend, it maybe regain forces and break the 6819 with new highs, more like a bull trap and then going down for good.

  13. I guess out with the bulls in with the bears. Today’s bullishness was the last chance more dips this week

  14. Ps that DOW has been a bstard, looking for it to come off a bit, at this rate we will 16000 by Christmas, which would be bs. Still got average position from at 6788…

    1. The bastard here is the FTSE not DOW. Look at all the markets at tell me who is the bastard

        1. Fortunately, I wasn`t day trading, as I use the DOW to manage my FTSE positions, and it would have completely screwed me.
          Personally, I think we will see the bounce in the morning, as we are currently in after hours. Then tomorrow when DOW opens, we will see the drop.

          Hang in there PMS.

          1. I was thought DOW would drop big time today when it crossed 15680 and went short but it just carried on to stop me out 🙁

    3. SPX is just closing the 1770 and if it manages to stay there, it will go much higher with another and fresh rally

      1. F**** FTSE. I know emotions can not interfere with trade, but if FTSE was a person I do not know what I should do with him 😀

        1. Cup and Handle? For the DOW that is. Tomorrow morning should see ftse rise when it opens, going to play catch up.

  16. I thought the futures or closed indices generally followed the other main markets particularly with UK and US main markets. What is going on here?

  17. … There’s a drop coming chaps, as PMS trader said the other day, look at the daily candles it’s a copy of that drop, this is a bull catch, we should see a retrace in my opinion back to the 1725ish area on the S&P which would suggest 6650 ish on the FTSE, but what do I know 🙂

    1. I think PMS is still bullish, but I agree there is definitely a drop coming. Will see that 6650 mark this week.

  20. I’m tired of seeing this disfunction. I stick with my alerts in FTSE below 6700 to see that stop activated and above 6780 to see where it goes.
    For today I’m finish here.

    1. I think we will get it on the double-top, 15900 is asking too much atm, we will see that Christmas Rally.

  27. .. So bored of these “market rises on stimulus expectation” there’s only so many times you can regurgitate this crap

  28. Well said Hubris It’s all a false!!! Stocks are well over priced but still they keep buying market are now at nose bleeding highs.

  30. Well guys do not want to be disappointing, but DOW yesterday broke a bull flag in the hourly charts.
    FTSE is brewing one right now, and it was dating the top of it, all day long today.

  31. I’m a frustrated long here (trying to be rational!) but if you are short ftse how lucky have you been not being yanked up by US?! Usually the firms will spike over the top either way whilst closed to wipe us out….

  33. A message to all desperate to go short.

    I’m neither a bull nor a bear, I dont trade on hunches nor ‘feelings’. I started trading May 2012 with FTSE at 5400 and people have been speculating in the 18 months since at which point to go short.

    I trade what I see.

  37. hahhaha ok senu.. I like your views as you play the intra day 10 point well.. whats your hunch today as everyone notes the ftse a laggard but seems that will continue

    1. Well, jobless claims data @ 1:30pm today. I am expecting a bounce before that. will inform here when entering any trade.

  39. This drop is just helping the base. 6750 plus EOD! The Americans will help me with another all time high. I love a random prediction!

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