FTSE Trading – Support 7018, 7013, 6973, 6918 Resistance 7055, 7069, 7082, 7094

Good morning. Well the old adage that its never easy seems to be applying this week, with prices headline and news driven. The Greeks scaremongering bluff about not being able to pay seemed to work as a deal appears to have been done, hence that rise that messed up my 7005 short. Still, at least it had a very tight stop. The S&P seems to be playing the game a bit better this week, though the US are getting a little bit annoyed with Europe by the sound of things and the ongoing “Greek tragedy”. Equities extended gains after an official with knowledge of the matter said Greece and its creditors will start drafting a staff level accord to solve its debt crisis. Stocks held gains even as European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis later denied an agreement is near. “Everyone was scared Greece was close to leaving the euro zone,” said John Plassard, vice president at Mirabaud Securities LLP in Geneva. “We had bad news on Greece today and people now got excited by this, so just some hope is pushing the market up. They seem to be trying to do anything possible to keep Greece in the euro zone.” Earlier, four international officials familiar with the matter said Greece will likely miss a deadline for a deal with creditors by the end of the week as the two sides make little progress in their talks. Time is running out for the Mediterranean nation to secure an agreement that will unlock more bailout funds before it needs to make payments to the International Monetary Fund in early June, so expect the next market surge then, coupled with interest rate rises being back in the news.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose after U.S. and European shares rallied amid gains in technology shares and optimism about a Greek debt deal. Japan’s Topix index climbed as the yen traded near an almost eight-year low against the dollar.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent to 152.47 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a record on Wednesday. Greece claims an agreement to unlock bailout funds is near, while the European Commission says a deal isn’t done.

“There was some hope that the Greek situation would sort itself out,” Tony Farnham, an analyst at Patersons Securities Ltd. in Sydney. “There’s going to be a bit of holding pattern in the market as investors await pending home sales and jobless claims data tonight in the U.S. The Federal Reserve will probably move on rates in the next few months as the economy improves.”

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the central bank will raise borrowing costs this year if the economy improves as she expects.

Greek officials were set to meet late Wednesday with the Commission and International Monetary Fund. Time is running out for the nation to receive funding ahead of almost 1.6 billion euros ($1.74 billion) in IMF payments scheduled for next month, with the first of the transfers due June 5.

Japan’s Topix rose 0.4 percent as the yen slid for a fifth day to trade at 123.73 per dollar. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index increased 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.2 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

China Rally
Chinese stocks rose for a seventh day on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 5,000 level for the first time since 2008 on gains for commodity and power producers.

The Shanghai Composite has surged more than 140 percent in the past year, the most among major indexes tracked by Bloomberg, on speculation the central bank will add to three interest cuts since November to spur growth and widen access to capital markets in the mainland.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5 percent on Wednesday as semiconductors rallied, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have the top of the 2 Bianca channels likely to come into play today, the 10day at 7069 for initial resistance and the 20 day at 7082. Looking at the moving averages initially I think we might get a rise and dip day, with the bull needing to break yesterdays high at 7055 to try for those channel areas. Above them the next resistance is 7094 and 7127 for the top of the 10 day Raff. Don’t think we will get that high unless the Greek deal is actually confirmed. Support is at the daily pivot at 7013 where we also have, roughly, the 200ema on the 30min chart, so I have plotted that to hold as support , but below this then 6973 for the bottom of the 10 day channel should hold. As mentioned above its all headline and rumour driven again while the Greek debacle rumbles on which currently makes things harder! I am tempted to short the rallies for the moment, so a short off the 7069 area looks tempting, probably with a stop above the 20day channel. We have UK GDP out at 9:30 this morning, then some US jobs data at 13:30 so expect a bit of movement around these times. Bear in mind if the Greek deal is confirmed then the market will breathe a sigh of relief and most likely push higher.

40 Comments

  1. Just come out of an early long and gone a little short at 34 looking for 20, 8 pt stop

        1. Ho hum.
          Meanwhile in other news, you’ll be pleased to hear the shed survived the night, including not leaking when it rained. 🙂

          1. Nick, are you actually profitable personally? Do you make a gradual profit every month or sometimes you lose a lot and then gain it back slowly? Just interested as I’ve been struggling emotionally lately.

          2. It has certainly been strong since that early wobble, without much help from the DAX.
            The DOW has a bit of a lid on it at 180/200 which might keep things back this pm.
            We’ve had 3 short term attempts at 48/50 so far, although not much follow up selling, so break that and your 60 is good to go, I reckon.
            Break 40, another matter.
            While 50 rsi on the 5 min holds it’s onward and upward.

          3. Sorry to hear you’re struggling Jack, it’s a very demanding game, I’m exhausted come Friday 4.30.
            Somehow I doubt you’d get the owner of a trading site to admit he wasn’t making any money, even if it were true, which I doubt.
            Fwiw, your system seems quite complicated to me, it must be draining just keeping up with it, let alone the stress of actually trading.
            Good Luck mate.

  2. I closed all shorts 18111 earlier. Fair enough it descended from 18184 to my av.b/e 18125. I had enough with this price I need to unwind. It stressed me out in these couple of days. Lost money and afraid I will never get it back. 7% of account gone. Maybe bit by bit I’ll recover. It is possibly. Next week half term ends, finally. Just can’t believe how nasty it acted yesterday, but the level 18184 was my last hope (it’s support is at 9am on 26 May) otherwise if it went to 18247 that would be a stop area, unfortunately.
    Yesterday, I shouldn’t have ignored MACD being above 0 on all charts (Dow, FTSE, DAX) and a level 18047 which I thought at the time was holding. At 2.30 it just bounced off it. But I was hoping for a break of that level as the price touched it so I thought it will have another go shortly, but it reversed.

    1. Hi Jack,

      If you remember I did ask the same question sometime back in the forum if anyone was making money consistently but I got no answer. Of course no one is obliged to answer my question. I still believe you can make money in this game but only after mastering the skill to control yourself. It will definitely take time.

      “There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do,” “And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win.” -JL

      1. RJ, it looks like only Nick does it consistently. 🙂 I really appreciate his results sheet.

    1. I’m all square at the mo Senu.
      I automatically place a 20 pt ‘black swan’ platform stop on every trade.
      I operate the actual trading stops manually, usually looking for 3 x 1min confirms of a break above my level, to avoid exhaustion moves.
      It costs me sometimes, other times saves.
      I would rather come out and go back in again if things go against me, it clears my mind. With the best will in the world, we look at things differently with an open position and get into that dangerous ‘hope’ attitude..

  7. tmfp, I appreciate what you said, I’ll think about it. This week was too much for me to bear. 223 quid lost, gutted.

  8. We are obviously expecting a bit of DOW help here, not convinced myself.
    Short 41 11 pt stop

    1. Added to short at 13, stop on all 20 looking for <7000 by close.
      Getting a bit bearish here 🙂

  12. Hi all,

    I am seeing a lot of spikes on IG platform currently. Just wondering if you are all using IG to execute your trades?

  13. Hi All, did reply to Jack’s post above but i log my results on this spreadsheet https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20168894/Results/Results.xlsx

    I also uploaded one of my strategy videos for public viewing – you can view it here – https://www.hilsdentrading.com/day-trading-strategies

    I am a great believer in the following:
    Trade less, win more
    Run winners, cut losers
    Know your entries (and exits)
    Plan the trade, trade the plan
    Get rich slowly rather than poor quickly
    Sometimes it isn’t your day – close down and do something else rather than chase the market
    Treat it like a business – the losing trades are the cost of running your business.

    1. Thank you Nick for the info you shared with us and proper trader’s advice, this is very much appreciated. I was amazed to see how organised you are. I also wonder how do you tolerate for example a row of losing trades and carry on until you get a good winning trade/s? Do you get upset about it? I just get all depressed even after a single losing trade thinking “they do it deliberately, I will never win again, it doesn’t work” etc. I thought again to join and try to follow only your trades like you do but I am concerned about my commitment/availability. It’s like I open the trade then I have to go for a school run or evening work. That failed me in the past. But I feel I can learn from you a lot and especially in regards of discipline. I will see.

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