Good morning. European stocks posted their longest losing streak in three weeks as U.S. data and comments by Federal Reserve officials stoked concern of a rate increase. U.S. reports on capital-goods orders and new home sales in April, and consumer confidence in May all beat estimates. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said yesterday the “time is near” for a U.S. rate increase, while Chair Janet Yellen indicated Friday that weak first-quarter growth won’t halt plans to raise borrowing costs this year. “We have Greece to worry about, just as concerns regarding a rate hike heat up in the U.S.,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Reyl & Cie. in Geneva. “That’s all contributing to a slightly more cautious market in the past few days as investors reassess their investment scenarios.” Unfortunately it meant that my long got stopped out, fortunately for only a small loss, as it turned into quite a bearish day yesterday with the bulls failing to hold above 7000. The Dax was especially wild with a nearly 350 point range, not helped by the Greek debacle that continues.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks dropped, following a decline in U.S. equities, after better-than-estimated economic data bolstered the case for higher interest rates in the world’s largest economy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 152.77 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 1 percent on Tuesday, its biggest slide since May 5, as strong readings for U.S. capital-goods orders and new home sales fueled bets for higher rates. Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.3 percent today even after the yen weakened 1.3 percent to an almost eight-year low against the dollar Tuesday. In Europe, talks between Greece and its creditors are said to be stalling.
“There is no doubt that with Greece on the verge of default, with political problems in other periphery countries, heightened valuations in all asset classes and constant global growth downgrades, investors have become increasingly short-term focused,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $21 billion. “That is understandable and the limit of their vision appears to be the first Fed rate hike within the next six months.”
South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.3 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.4 percent.
Futures on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, added 0.4 percent in most recent trading, after the index climbed to its highest level since January 2008 on Tuesday. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.3 percent, following a 2 percent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index for a sixth day of gains.
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 slid less than 0.1 percent today. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook and Prediction for spread betting
The daily chart is looking a bit bearish again now with the EMAs just crossing over to bear. With todays pivot initial resistance at 6980, and then EMA level at 6995, a short around this area looks a decent play to start things off. If the bulls were to break this area then the top of the Bianca channels at 7059 and 7076 are back in play, though it will take a lot to change the current sentiment, which is spooked over Greece and US interest rates. There is always something isn’t there! There is a bit of resistance at 7005 also, where we have the 200ema on the 30min – I expect this to be quite solid resistance if it got there. I am thinking a dip from the pivot for today, and we have support first up at 6941 and then 6924 which are both fib levels, with S1 at 6907 below them. S2 is at 6856, with the Bianca 20 day channel support slightly higher at 6878. With the S&P managing, just about, to hold above 2100, and the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 2098 for today, a lot will hinge on the US later. I think any dip will find support at the 6935 area initially where we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff (plus that fib at 6925)
Short at 84 looking for 60’s
Out at 65 looking to re sell on bounce 75+
Short again 79 looking for retest 65
Added a little at 93 stop 05
Out of that for 3 points, losing the will to live here….
5mins looks like it might push up — momentum feeble though.
Short 94. 6900 today or not?
I see I think similar, 17950 today or not?
I just hope they don’t look at our blog to find out what we think.
🙂 they get the info from volume
Should they also see my orders?
Lol, that’ll confuse them Jack 😉
I think you might be onto something there….There is not as many indices spreadbetter’s as people think.
Need to break 80 for further drop towards lows
tmpf, i think you did the right thing, I came out at 88 🙁
It’s so boring I have the laptop on the garden table and am putting up a shed.
I still like the short side
Short at 96 as we type
tmpf, where do you think ~FTSE is heading?
6600 Senu, when I’m not sure…..and how high first, I’m not sure either, lol.
Can’t see a huge day today, 6960/7010 maybe.
I’m a perma bear by nature, cost me a fortune a while back so now I just scalp. And sleep.
🙂
thanks bear
How about you Senu? What do you see first, 6500 or 7400?
12 points in 30 seconds…I’ll take that
According to inside sources, that drop was because Draghi nearly fell over getting out of his limo………ok, back to the shed 🙂
6500 tmpf , but when?
That’s the $64,000 question…..
may be mid of Aug
Buy a put?
I already have a June 6900 put @30,just thinking whether to hold it
That’s typical. Now it looks all rosy on Dow.
How quickly the tide turns!
I don’t think it is rosy though!
Oh, that helps, I hope so too.
Yes. Just waiting and waiting for this short but it may never come today. Steeply going up in a channel. FTSE seems to be struggling to break 7001. However still hoping for short on Dow.
Maybe not that steeply.
200ema on 30min is 7001, hence the resistance there
I think Pivot broke on Dow.
One of those days.
I am sure it’s all been done deliberately just to annoy me. LOL
taken off
had a short order @99 with stop 13 , gone in a sec
my orders got opened. not sure what to do now.
What did you have Jack ?
I don’t know what this rally is inspired by but short @ 34
something related to Greece.
Hopefully to take off stops of shorters.
Took 10 wtf?
Deal done
any link regarding the deal please?
Watch out …. IMF refusing to comment on Greek officials’ remarks
so back to 6960 ?
7050 first
Good call Nick
Time for a small print short then
looks like closing will be like yesterday, going one way direction.
Pure 10 point stop gamble, short 29
That was boring, I expected some fireworks for my money at least 🙁
Is it a big DIVI day today? I can’t see why the FTSE keeps rising?
1.9 divi
Theres the 7050!
Good call
and short to celebrate 🙂
b/e stop closing on the bell if it’s still going
Not that I expect anyone to believe me, but I ran that to the bell. 🙂
I think 50 will look dear tomorrow.
Back to the shed 🙂
Think we will need a photo of the finished article having heard so much about it. Is it a proper man cave shed?!
Unfortunately not, it’s an 8×6 cheapie made of kindling with plasticine screws, just to put STUFF in as my other half never throws anything away. 🙁
and out at 7035
Dow still languishing — after yesterday’s hysteria. 😀
Deal news looks contradictory. Will this up move sustain?
Rally was – Buy the rumours. tomorrow- sell the news?
They must have seen my plan for today. It’s a bit nasty: to close below the channel, to touch the previous support as it was going to break it and break the top. Nasty piece of work. Some people would have gone short 18070. ouch. I got shorts higher however in a loss right now.
Missed the 4.30 spike as I was in a meet but just closed ftse long for 75 points the best trade of my life
Congrats
FTSE’s been messing around since mid-April. Growth rate though on the up since early May — looking at daily timeframe. Today’s outcome in keeping with that trend. A new rendezvous with 7100 not out of the question in the circumstances. 😉
Left-click on link: http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE%20100%20DFB_zpslsvhaf4c.png