23rd June 2017
That was quite bearish first thing yesterday dropping pretty rapidly to the 7398 10 day channel bottom by 10am. Investors were quite spooked with oil remaining subdued and Brexit negotiation fears weighing on minds. The daily chart has gone bearish now with a moving average cross – showing resistance at the 7465 level for today. The break below 7420 isn’t a good sign for the bulls and we could well be on for a dip down to 7380 and probably lower. The bottom of the 10 day channel today is 7385.
Asian equities are ending the week on a tepid note, with oil remaining below $43 a barrel, after a series of Federal Reserve speakers did little to alter projections for the path of U.S. interest-rate increases.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am watching the 7460/7470 area as we have a few fairly key looking resistance levels here, including the new one on the daily now that the moving averages have crossed over. Coupled with the red coral on the 2 hour chart the bulls might struggle to break this area. The bears will be keen to build on the weakness from the 7600 level recently, and will have been buoyed up by the break of 7420 yesterday, even though they couldn’t make it stick.
The bottom of the 10 day Bianca looks likely to be tested today at 7385, equally the 7475 level also. Freaky Friday for good measure so will be an interesting one. There isn’t an abundance of market moving news but the ASX had a rise dip rise sort of day as well, and FTSE 100 futures prices have remained fairly static overnight, around the 7425 level.
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Back into shorts small size at 7408
No break of support on the open so think this treads water until this afternoon now. What bears want to see is price holding in the 7400-7420 area so that if selling pressure comes in from the US later on we take out support. Just checked out the Dow and would be surprised if it manages to eek out another up day so maybe that move is on today… a break of support closing on the lows for the week would suggest more downside next week
Looks that way
Looks weak.. not even managed to hold it up until the US open
Am expecting dow to go down first
Added to shorts at 7400
Very quiet today. Where is anstel morko jack?
Managed to take 35 on a Dow short. Just assessing when to go back in wanted to hold for a while but set my stop too tight and got stopped.
Still here ….just been busy with other problems today…
Hope you are OK anstel
Thanks Nick I’m Ok, had some car problems , all sorted out now ,went mobile and actually I hedged to take the pressure off initially but with no additional risk I actually have made a really good wage to set against my losing long position…Going to try and trade round the position…..see how it goes,have a great weekend….
I’m here!!
Going well so far…closed my heavy sp500 last night…had some good shorts down but now all closed. Waiting for US…it may rise and fall?
Sold some more here at 7426.. will get out if it doesn’t come off into the US open
Important close today.. if we’re hovering around 7400 in an hours time then support can break. Consistently making lower highs on the bounces so the expectation is 7400 will break soon as long as price is below 7430
Hard going short but complete. Taken first at 12717 then added and brought to b/e, taken out. Other short from 12705 av closed at 12690, not how I expected to spend my time from 12 o’clock. I wanted it to be done before US. Wasted so my time for those 15 points. Withdrew of course, terrible.
:0)
anstel, I felt the pressure of your praying so I didn’t keep my short in the end. But long!!! On Dax!!!! Didn’t expect, honestly. It is slightly a not tradable long for me cos the early set up was bearish but entry at 15.30 at 12706 with SL 12690 looks like classy to me. Risky but classy.
I hope you are scooping longs on the lower levels like I advised? From 400 support area which holds at the moment? Now it’s the time to close those lower longs and wait for lower prices again. And reduce your stake.
By now if you did those longs 21, 22, 23 June you would have recovered everything to b/e and could terminate your initial long position. I calculated here.
Good call Jack.. I have a rule where if I’m shorting into support I cover the trade the first 2 times, after that I just leave it as the more hits it takes the more likely it is it will break. I make that 4 hits now this week so not sure how many more will hold. Bulls still have a lot of work to do to change the trend. A break above 7445 would be a good start, then above 7470 and I would lose confidence that the move I’m looking for is imminent. Dow broke support today and has just been backtesting it as resistance so it’s nowhere near bullish yet. Would ideally like to see this closer to 7400 by 9pm. The last two days we couldn’t break it on the open and that’s made it much more difficult to get the break, so the closer we are on Monday morning the more chance it comes
I agree, there is a short sentiment across the indices in MACD department, I’m just not sure if it has enough forces to break any further any soon. It may get into a defensive range because the trend is still bullish. They will try to defend the support with all they got, spiking into it?
You mean the client sentiment thing on IG? I don’t really look at it.. people say it’s a contrary indicator given 90% lose but I don’t think people lose because they’re going long or short.. it’s because they firstly don’t know how to read price which makes everything else difficult as it then follows that they don’t know where the inflection points are so don’t know where to place stops to manage risk properly.. inevitably means people feel like they can’t win so they relax the risk management side which often works for a while then blowout. I also don’t follow any indicators other than RSI.. all looks pretty neutral on the daily but it’s the price action I’m interested in with the flat lows and lower highs. Would like to see a weak finish on Wall Street as if we’re in the low 7400s come Sunday night the odds of a break on Monday are better.. above 7445 and it’s looking less likely to happen
Let’s see on Monday. FTSE closed slightly higher than you hoped and not close to 7400, so it may push higher who knows. Have a good weekend.
Because so many people are short, the price didn’t break today. I felt it and so bailed with only 15 points. The short after US open was nervy and slow, this normally happens when everybody expects short so much, it was obvious it should happen and that’s why it didn’t.
But at 15.30 I was at the school run.
Looks like you are getting ready to go long anstel?
I wouldn’t go long now…it’s more than likely to sell off before 9pm.
A lot of down momentum today from the open…this could be a bear trap?
Then again it may rally !?!!
Hi guys….ive done ok so far.quite well in fact trading around my position in short hedges and banking profits…I’m long now,looking to hedge higher up.good luck fellas,,,concentrating,so not posting as much, good luck.
Well i was having a good finish to the week until i took a short trade right on the days low. was looking at the price action and thought “right its just broken support jump on board and follow the trend down”. but no was completely the wrong thing to do as it was a fake out and then turned the other way. i thought at the time “just now go long to hedge it but didn’t have the balls too as didn’t want to get in to many trades before the end of the week and now i’m 60 points under water wiping out my profit for this week and some more. three words to say about this, “school boy error”. should have waited for the next candle to confirm the movement down before jumping on board. wont make that cock up again. now as i’m writing this it looks to be coming back down now so hopefully it will continue the sell off towards the close. any thoughts welcome.
Where did you sell? Dow looks like the 21425 area is key, below there it’s trending down. Check out Tony Caldaro’s Elliott wave blog.. he’s usually pretty good with the short term calls, he’s saying 5% correction probably underway and uptrend likely over for now. His longer term stuff is a bit iffy though so tend to ignore that
don’t laugh 21334, its fallen back a fair bit now in the last hour so can breath a sigh of relief. i have de-risked on the way down so if it does pop back up i’m good for a wider stop in the longer run. silly really went too big for my pot but seemed to have got away with it by sticking to the plan and starring at a heavy red all afternoon. lol. thanks Mcgcapital i will check tony out.
Evening chaps,pretty good day today all things considered….all longs hedged at 34 short,holding no Ftse exposure over weekend….its a work in progress,off to walk gromit now, have a good weekend all…:0)
Good weekend all. Hope gromit has a good run.