FTSE 100 Prediction resistance 7572 7600 | Support 7480 | Carney Speech

20th June 2017

The 2 hour chart is still bullish with support today now at 7480 so still a case of buy the dips. However (there is always a however isn’t there!) the top of both the Bianca channels are at 7542 for today so this will be the early hurdle for the bulls to break.

The Dax charged out the blocks yesterday, fuelled by Macron’s majority win in French parliament, and double topping with 14th June high at 12920 area. Might push for a 13k print today.

Asian equities saw little in the way of firm direction with the Nikkei 225 supported by a softer JPY and the ASX hampered by commodities

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels
FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels

For today I am thinking we will get a dip and rise pattern, with support being tested at the 7480 level. If we do get this low then this is a decent spot for a long for a climb back, as the 2 hour chart has support here. I am thinking that we are on for a retest of the 7600 level soon, and also possibly 7650, but as mentioned above we do have the Bianca channels showing resistance at 7542. We have tested this level overnight and dropped back from it but the bears aren’t particularly strong. That said, the ASX200 was pulled lower by weaker commodity prices today, and that may well carry through to the FTSE 100 for a bit of bear Tuesday, certainly to start with.

Gold has continued to decline from its recent test with 1300, and stocks are actually holding up pretty well, with the FTSE 100 holding onto its gain from the 7385 bounce last week. The bulls will now need to break the 7550 level to push higher, towards the fib level at 7572.

So, probably a similar pattern to yesterday with the dip and rise, and hopefully a decent test of the Hull moving average on the 2 hour chart. Stay nimble!

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112 Comments

  1. Morning….got long at 31….took + 10 at size….now short 52 big enough to be dangerous…

  2. He who dares Rodders…

    I’m in 10pp on dax short at 45
    2pp FTSE 40
    And 25pp on sp500 at 51

    Arghhhh..

    These events are rare – all in

    1. It’s getting toppy but it’s not at the top yet in my opinion…..seat of the pants stuff this :0) good luck fellas….

      1. We have to think like water……don’t get too focused on long or short….it can go anywhere….

  4. No trades on but apart from FTSE (week pound) I can see a bit of downside on the way today. Dax and Cac would be prime candidates.

    1. anstel, do you actually use any buy or sell signals or just go whenever you feel it will turn?

        1. It’s about predicting where it will go next…..not easy…..but you need to understand what your looking at …..this is extremely important …..and why it behaves as it does….

  6. anstel, watching that video you gave me yesterday. She said: “breaks that support, can’t get above (all indicators turn bearish): at that point you do not want to be bullish”. It’s amazing that she even manages to be a successful trader. She has the guts to stop. But what if someone doesn’t? I didn’t like she is not favoring stops. Why does she have to get herself in the position below the support in the first place? What if it doesn’t stop and fall fall fall. Not the best strategy for those who are learning.

    1. I like the interview with Tom Hougaard more, the one you posted. That Ukrainian girl was very nice, I think he opened up to her.

      1. I think one of the biggest factors in trading is patience…….patience waiting for a really good probability trade ( I need to improve this a lot ) patience holding a position ( provided your reason for opening the position remains valid ) I’m very good at this….and then patience in trying to judge what the market will give you…. ( some days im good at this but others oh dear do I make some cock ups…..better to come out early really but I push too much and it’s my Achilles heel..

        1. If I’m wrong I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure I’m right….most people will be short ,I like that :0)

    2. You need to close out sometimes. To reach 600 now will take several days.
      It’s just a sell off. I scraped off 12867 long Dax right now. But I am not going long here.

    3. I think Nick mentioned 7480, but this is the last support, below that is the free fall to 7440 but I hope it won’t get to that. Hopefully it will retrace now.

  13. Well the Dow is ridiculous as ever today. When it buckles I’m going to take great pleasure in building a huge position on the way down. It’s a stupid index and I don’t even know why I trade it!

  15. What is holding up the Dow?, I’m short from 20525 and fed up, while the other indices are melting

  17. Im in Dow shorts too. The issue I think is that it’s only 30 companies mostly owned by elite, banks and FED…There not selling so it’s not going down.

  20. Dow will snap. I have no idea when looking at it now but when you least expect it, it’ll dive. One trump headline away from a few hundred pip drop at any time at the moment

  21. I’m waiting on the upcoming oil correction. Touching the bottom of the descending channel on the daily charts now. EIA might give it the kick up the arse it needs

  22. So what has freaked the Ftse and Dax out if Dow stable? I think they will all go back up…….someone’s having a laugh that’s for sure…..utter bollox !!

    1. Mind you its all bollox…..here’s a little puzzle for you……The scilly isles are 28 miles from lands end….on a clear day they are visible….according to the diameter of Earth we are given and some mathematics which I’m going to get checked by a mathematics boffin, at 15 miles the horizon drops by 141 feet and the highest point on the scilly isles is 167 feet above sea level……so at 28 miles away why are they visible???? Can anyone tell me why ? The maths must be wrong? I guess…

    1. Thanks Morko ,I was thinking a mirage of some description,never heard of that gravitation deflection of light :0). It’s amazing what you can learn on here ,I will read up on it cheers :0)

  24. Long FTSE at 50
    Long dax at 790

    All sp500 closed

    1 short left in Dow – for old time sake!

  25. Tempted to flip to long in Dow..I mean odds are it ain’t going to go down.

    .. everything says no but for that reason I might

    Advice needed

    1. I still think it’s goin to 7600….. They are just trying to scare the shit out of the longs…..last thing the bankers want is anyone to make any money…you know what ……@@@@ em.

  29. Hold one – FTSE going to fly…cheap pound, oil level and recovering – bargain hunters will buy!

    1. That’s what I think,but i went too early…looks like I’m on the night shift …..great anstel,that’s just peachy :0)

    1. Not fighting anymore battles but I think your right…..just holding my cable short looking for the 22s or less and Ftse long…

      2. 61.8% correction on FTSE done, whether it will reverse now… I don’t know. Price can go any way. 100 points is not an easy “come back price” for me. Once it’s gone past 50-70 pips you’re not in control of the price. Unfortunately it’s appears that you’ve been nursing a winning trade in reverse. And now this trade is complete. Will the long signal start tomorrow we will see and hope it will. I like longs. Dax didn’t touch my 13000. But I am not going to battle EMA, MACD etc. and etc.
        50% on Dax.

        1. Down 68 pts and a chunk of change…I made a b@lls of it earlier but hey it’s trading for you..I don’t think it’s broken…

    1. You have done really well today Morko…thinking on your feet…..I started off ok but cocked up,I should have held the short like Jack said but hey…sometimes we get it right,sometimes not…The trend is up….and a lot of the good traders are trend followers so I’m sticking with it…good luck all…

    2. When I read your comment about your short in the morning, the price was 20 points to your favor and I was happy for you thinking you’re holding it. But then I noticed another your comment when you closed it and flipped it, I could not believe my eyes. You are the one who is saying that patience is the key and then you jump out of the trade which hasn’t finished. I was surprised. If you had 52 and scared: at 41 you can cash in half and put your stop for the amount of winnings above 59 and let it run. You had such a tiny stop: 8 points. That’s why I asked you about the indicators earlier. By 11.40 EMA were already crossed for downside.
      Why I didn’t take this short. Because in my book I have a rule: never short all times high, something nervy about it. I just let the price drop and look for a buying or selling scalping opportunities.

      1. I’ll tell you why I didn’t hold that short Jack….in my experience this market could get pumped up to 8000 for all we know….the trend is strongly up…..I know it’s BS but still it’s up…I made a really good profit on the few points I had and I didn’t want to hold short…..I Made a mistake but you know what I’m happy because when everyone thinks this market is about to crash you watch what happens….People are going to get stuck deep in shorts at big size because of greed and it’s going to blow their accounts….could I be wrong.?absolutely….but until it’s broke ….it’s not broke in my eyes..its a confidence trick if you ask me….

        1. And….Jack ,how do you know the trade isn’t finished?…it’s easy to say now,but like you said,you wouldn’t have shorted it…..you were looking for fib retracements…..I’ll tell you now….if the bankers want this up….a fib retracement isn’t going to stand in its way……this isn’t a market…..its a computer game and the rules are….there are no rules….

          1. You are right. I remember the fear of shorting in the morning. At that point when you took your short, my short trade hasn’t even started by my book (it looked like a little scalp your short) and when you took long, yes, it could have pumped up cos of the rise in the morning. But by 11.40 I saw an indication of short on EMA. I take 10 min. People take 15, 30 whatever. But because it is a bullish market I don’t react on bearish EMA so I am waiting for a bullish EMA for long trades which only appeared at 20.50 as a weak bullish signal. Then the short trade has finished for those who actually taken it. You can see it even if you didn’t take it. Nobody would expect it would last so long. It could be a little pull back or like today an unstopabble plunge. Until it stops and shows signs of reversal there’s no point to go long. I remember a similar plunge on Dax when other indicies wasn’t falling so much but then it all recovered. I was stuck on it and remember the pain you are going through. Good luck and hope it will recover for you.

            1. Thanks Jack,I appreciate your comments…I’m not in any real pain with the trade…yes I’m always concerned when in the red……and gaps are a worry …. Hence I’m out at weekends that’s a rule…but I’m weak on technicals really…with some of Mcgcapitals comments I think that area needs to be improved…goodnight buddy…

  32. Anstel – hope I don’t offend but here goes… from what you’ve been posting you’re trading like a gambler. You need to work on your trade management and risk management if you want to stay in this game for the long term. It’s not about being right it’s about keeping those losses small and riding the winners when they’re available. In the past week I’ve seen you go long near the range top, hold through multiple support breaks, add to losing positions, get away with it when the market rallied back and the very next day make exactly the same mistake again. It’s just not a very efficient use of capital to hold on to losers even if they do come back. I get that you have a bullish bias but you could have got out your initial long from 7530s when it broke 7490 support, then reenter when it stabilised at pivot support around 7380 on Thursday. You’re not just giving yourself a lot of unnecessary stress but missing out on opportunity while you wait for it to come good. I get that you don’t like being stopped but you need to have an exit strategy at all times.

    As for the trend, as I said last week, it’s clearly topping out on the daily/weekly charts… I was early as we had another test of the top of the trading range but I did well still by covering off support and when the RSIs got oversold. Back in naked short from the 7540s again. The trend isn’t up anymore.. it has turned over to sideways and sometimes this means consolidation and up, others it means we’re switching over to down.

    I think this is going to test 7100-7200 before the next big rally. There are no certainties in this game but just ask yourself what your plan is if we go down there. Are you intending to hold 400 points offside and hope it comes back? It likely will come back as it’s a bull market until it’s not, but that’s not the point.. you’re exposing yourself to a blowout unnecessarily. My impression is that you’ve been going in heavily long with no plan B all year and getting good results as the market has been grinding higher with minimal drawdowns. However, that won’t always be the case and it’s getting quite likely that volatility will pick up and drawdowns get bigger, if not now, sometime soon from a historical perspective.

    At the end of the day, it’s your money and I don’t know you… but just think you should ease off and keep hold of the big gains you’ve clearly made. Earlier in my career I made a fortune, got cocky and lost it all before really learning what trading was about and being able to draw a big salary from doing this full time. Just think it’s better if you have a break and reflect for a while rather than throwing it all away.

    All the best,
    Mark

    1. Hi Mark,no offence taken whatsoever,and I do really appreciate your comments….the way I do risk is this….as I make money I bank it…….it goes out of the account…….the account size remains the same roughly….I have a maximum loss on the trading account of x%……. I have analysed my trade history and you are absolutely correct lots of relatively small gains and then a big blow out……As I made profits I used to keep them in account ,trade bigger ,then blow out…..now ive learnt to keep constant size and when I lose x % of the account I will close…..from experience so far………i can regain that loss and it keeps me in the game…it’s like a stop on the account rather than the trade..

      You are obviously much more experienced than I am. I have read your comments and you seem really knowledgable and disiplined ….if you can advise me in any way I would really appreciate any further tips….thanks for taking the time to type such a long post to a stranger…Stops I really don’t think they are designed to help the individual trader more a target for the market…..having said that they would have saved my first account that I blew…To be honest I really can’t decide if stops are good for us or bad……..they definitely need to be wide….best of luck,and thanks for your concern,,,,I appreciate it….

      1. At least you’re not going to blow everything in one go if it goes wrong then.. all I’d say though is the temptation will be there to just reload the account and and carry on, so would be useful to have a rule that says have a full week off if it happens or something.

        It’s fine to have a view on where it’s going but you have to let price lead. If you think it’s going to 7700 I can see why you’re bullish. But have to consider the amount of resistance around 7540-50 and then 7600. Really it would need to clear that first to have a go at going that high.

        Lots of trades are algo driven so have to consider how they will react. They buy breakouts, sell at resistance and buy off support, and sometimes sell breakdowns. That means we need to consider where the pivots are and cross reference that with the price action and RSI. At the moment in this range we have 7380-400, 7440-50, 7480-500 and 7540-50. So basically was looking to sell near the top of the range this morning – had to enter twice given it went a little higher to 7560 and got stopped on my first go. The break below 7480-500 on the close is bearish.. the last two weeks it’s gone through, got oversold and bounced off 7450s to 7480s then sold off to 7380. With that in mind, bears are in control of price now unless we can clear 7500 again in the morning in which case the bulls will he back in control up to 7540s. Other thing to note is that the more times the market tests and sells off the weaker it gets. Each time we’ve spent less time in the 7500-7550 area and this week it was only a day and a half. That’s a sign of a weakening trend. A break of 7380 is what’s really needed to get a proper correction underway and I think it’s aligning that way.

        Key thing to remember is that anything can happen at any time. I’m right about 60-70% of the time and that combined with running winners and cutting losers makes it profitable. So basically have to let the market lead… bears in control until bulls prove otherwise.. see if there’s a bottoming pattern near any of the support pivots and go from there

        1. Thanks so much for your detailed reply…..I will re read that at least 6 times so it gets absorbed…..there used to be a gent on here called tmfp…….he said the same thing as yourself….each time we spend less time in a given area the weaker it becomes…..that is a worry to be totally honest ……I don’t know where this will go, I have my ideas ,but that’s all they are…..that was a very interesting comment about the Algos buying breakouts….it explains the jerky price action on Friday at options expiry….however I have also seen the Ftse slowly wind up like a speedometer for no apparent reason and just keep winding on the numbers ….it’s obviously being pushed up but by what or who remains a mystery but it wasn’t a breakout as such,just a prolonged steady climb? Ummn there’s so much to learn…thanks for your help….

          1. 9 times out of 10 it spikes up on options expiry so I always go long/cover shorts at 10am until 10.15. It’s usually worth about 20 points as they’re exercising call options but it was 55 points this month – got no idea why it was so big this month but not complaining. This past couple of weeks it’s just moving between the pivots so it’s actually nice to trade.. it’s more tricky when the market is trending as it tends to skip through resistance/support more easily. The general idea at the moment is sell into strength unless we can get above 7600 then it’s bullish

            1. Mcg….I take the option dates of the options Calander and put them in my diary….on the previous options expiry not last Friday the one before there was very little in the way of a spike……last Friday as you say it was 50-60 points……I thought it was the bankers pumping it up but disguised as options expiry….I don’t think that was a normal spike…..never seen one that big,and I think it is a sign of what’s to come……the maximum it hit was 499.5 on my platform but it was so erratic I thought I would lose out to slippage and I thought wrongly it was going north….. Closed at 92.3 ish in the end……I think it’s crying wolf……but as you say it’s the numbers in front of us that matter….what do they say….trade what you see not what you think….. Have a good night ,and sleep well…..

          2. On my third reading of your post Mcg I realise now that the sterling flashcrash could have been Algos driven selling the market breakdown and resulting in the 600 pip crash or thereabouts…..whether other forces where involved I don’t know….

    2. Mcgcapital, GOLDEN WORDS FOR ANSTEL! I hope he will hear you. I agree with every word you are saying. I wouldn’t be able to put it better. Thank you.

      1. Thanks Jack….I know you mean well buddy…blimey if I lose my confidence I might as well stop trading…but even with your well honed technical skills Jack you make mistakes too… I don’t know what the answer is…..I know one thing……trading is very difficult….

        1. Oh yes, I do make mistakes, we are all humans. GL for today, MACD slightly on the 0, it may push to 7480, but EMA…. hm, they are sad but sometimes it snaps out of it, let’s see.

          1. Morning Jack,thanks for your comments,I think you are pretty good with the technical side of things,I’m not really,anyway tell you what I’m tired……let’s see how it plays out….I got the cable right at least…..its dropping,it’s in the 1.25s now just….if the Dow recovers sentiment I think it will be ok….have a great day and thanks…and good luck…

  33. Here’s a little prediction….cable down to 1.20. – 1.22….. Ftse 7600. – 7700 initially …don’t know about oil don’t trade it,but if you ask me once cable is down oil will rise….it’s the new QE…. Don’t ask me when I’ve no idea….

  34. Anstel, I agree. FTSE ain’t done yet. Out interpretation of the uk has little to do with FTSE price. The fundamentals are that the FTSE companies are mainly largely owned by Multinational companies. Cable is key as is oil..,these are the inputs to which the FTSE compiles to determine profitability and share price. The uk, London is the largest financial hub in the world. This is a great place to invest in, and cable price makes its bargain.

    I’m long still and will flip to shirts 7530+. I will correct but not now I feel.

  35. I had a good day…added 32% to my account, rode them down with 10pts of bottom and then up again

    Did some up and downs on Dow last thing and piled in platinum when it was at 19.

    Need a rise and then fall tomorrow to keep the numbers blue!

    GL all.

  36. Hey Morko..you know, that push up on Ftse this morning into the 60 area…I just can’t help but think there’s a lot of underlying strength in the Ftse..and I think it’s being sold off to create the effect of the market topping out. Where do people invest money with this interest rate environment….United utiiities,BP.the big multinationals that pay a decent dividend.. So one good place for a reasonable income is Ftse companies …….if you remember after the U.S. election we saw the Ftse close in on 7000 as the Dow rallied,but then it pulled back before it started its run from 7000-7500….. I think we are seeing the same pattern here.the Dow steaming ahead and the Ftse stalling….I might be wrong but with all the negative news that’s about as well and most people short I think the Ftse is going to surprise a lot of people…

    1. I do agree…but it is a lottery. I don’t really buy into long term technicals it doesn’t pass the laugh out loud test to me. Short to mid term yes.

      You know many market stall traders ( apple & pears style) are recruited to share trade by the large broker houses It’s the eye for a deal, spotting opportunities and assessing the situation that gives the edge. IMO.

      Let’s do it all again tomorrow. !

      1. That’s one of my biggest problems Morko…..trying to get the best deal…..it’s been engrained into me in my business life but it’s not transferable to the market….in business we are in a relationship with our suppliers and can negotiate a favourable price….likewise when we sell our goods and services to the companies we deal with we are in a relationship with the buyers……….in the market though it’s different…..there’s no relationship……the market doesn’t know you,care about you,or is even aware we are there……the market offers us a profit,it’s not negotiable….we either take it or as I have done to my detriment many times try and coax a little more out of it as if it was a business negotiation…..The thief in the night…..it’s hard knowing when to close and when to push…..

    1. Hey Icarus,are you trading daily or holding short from 500 the other day…..? So many different viewpoints ,I suppose that’s what makes a market…

  38. I hear you Anstel. I never take more than 30 or points unless I’m busy and can’t check…then it’s usually more.

    I’m not bothered by big point hauls in one. I average about 30 trades a day. A little often…Jesus I think I’m scalper!!!! It’s just occurred to me and I never thought I was.

  39. Tell you what chaps it’s great to share our thoughts and views on here….it’s quite a solitary activity and unless you have people to talk to with some experience,your on your own because your friends family etc don’t really understand what we go through and the challenges involved…

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