FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 30th September 2020
Bit of a bear Tuesday again in the end yesterday. These are the main highlights:
- European equities stumble after strong gains on Monday
- Wall Street falls slightly after flat open
- UK mortgage approvals hit a 13-year high
- US goods trade deficit at a record
- Property market surge pushes mortgage lending to record high, highest monthly lending since 2007
- Consumer confidence in the US rose sharply this month, hitting 101.8 in a result that blew out expectations for a reading of 90.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has been speaking at an event hosted by Queen’s University, Belfast’s Chief Executives’ club. No revelations from the Guv’nor, but here are a few key lines:
- The UK’s third-quarter performance was probably a bit better than the MPC expected
- Economic caution will continue
- The BoE hasn’t reached a judgement on whether to employ negative rates
- The economic impact of the new Covid-19 restrictions will be different to those in the second quarter
Spoofing Admission
JPMorgan admitted wrongdoing and agreed to pay more than $920 million to resolve U.S. authorities’ claims of market manipulation involving two of the bank’s trading desks, the largest sanction ever tied to the illegal practice known as spoofing. Over eight years, 15 traders at the biggest U.S. bank caused losses of more than $300 million to other participants in precious metals and Treasury markets, according to court filings on Tuesday. JPMorgan admitted responsibility for the traders’ actions. The settlement included fresh details about spoofing on the bank’s Treasuries desk, which was occurring at the same time as previously alleged market manipulation on the bank’s precious metals desk.
Market Open
Asia stocks were set for a mixed start as traders awaited data from China that will shed light on the strength of the economy’s recovery. U.S. shares earlier slipped on low volumes and the dollar fell. Equity futures edged lower in Tokyo and Australia, while Hong Kong contracts rose. S&P 500 futures dipped at the open. The S&P 500 declined 0.5% with more than two stocks falling for every one that advanced, after talks on expanding aid ended for the day with plans to resume discussions Wednesday. Oil fell toward $39 a barrel in New York. Treasuries were little changed. China markets will shut from Thursday for a week of national holidays. Volume on U.S. equity exchanges was subdued on Tuesday ahead of the first presidential election debate. Wednesday marks the final trading day of September and the end of the quarter, so portfolio rebalancing could also exacerbate market moves.
First debate
Donald Trump and Joe Biden have gone at each other hammer and tongs in the first of three debates in the US presidential election. In a bad-tempered and at times chaotic debate, the candidates ripped chunks out of each other on their records and issues such as the economy and race. Mr Trump was rebuked several times by Chris Wallace, the moderator, for speaking over his opponent.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
U.S. equity-index futures and Asian stocks turned lower after an acrimonious American presidential debate that highlighted the risk of a contested vote. The dollar ticked higher and Treasuries were steady.
S&P 500 futures were about 0.6% lower after the sparring between President Donald Trump and Democratic hopeful Joe Biden ended. Futures earlier rose as much as 0.7% during the debate, well within the range of swings that have prevailed recently during one of the U.S. stock market’s more volatile stretches.
More weakness has crept in overnight, mainly driven by the bad tempered debate in the US. That said, the S&P has dropped down on the futures to its 2 hour support at the 3307 level, and if this holds then we could well see a climb back up. A break of that however and we will probably slide down towards S3 at 3277. With the weakness the 2 hour chart moving averages are bearish with 3342 as initial resistance.
The ASX had a dip rise dip play out and we may well see something similar. It’s also the final trading day of September and the end of the quarter, so portfolio rebalancing could also exacerbate market moves today.
Initial support is at the key fib level and S1 at 5858 so if this holds then I am thinking that we will see a rise towards the daily pivot at 5910, and we also have some key resistance levels just below this with the 25ema, 200ema and a red coral on the 30min just below at 5900. As such, we may well see a possible stutter in this area. Above the 5910 level then the bulls will be aiming for the next key fib at 5947, with R1 just above this at 5960. Above this then the 5980 level remains as resistance and as yet untested.
For the bears, below the 5860 level then S2 at 5809 is next up, with the daily support lower down at 5757. I am not sure that we will get that low today, but as mentioned end of month will exaggerate moves, so don’t rule anything out!
So, could be a bit of an interesting one again. Anyway, good luck today, and watch for a dip rise dip pattern to play out today.
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