FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th December 2019
Moves were muted on the FTSE 100 yesterday, with Tesco taking the spot of biggest riser (up 4.7pc) following reports it could sell its Asian operations. Phoenix Group was the biggest faller, dropping 3.7pc after announcing on Friday it had bought ReAssure, cementing its position as Europe’s biggest buyer of life insurance and pensions. The FTSE 100 closed 0.08pc lower to 7,233.90. In the eurozone, both the CAC and DAX closed in the red, falling 0.59pc and 0.46pc respectively.
The standout across London’s markets was Tullow Oil, shares in which crashed by 71.75pc dropping the company to its lowest level since 1999. Around £1.4bn was wiped off its market cap after it announced its chief executive officer and exploration director had both resigned, cut it productions forecasts for the coming year and scrapped its dividend.
US stock markets have also eased ahead of a key week for China-US trade progress and Britain’s general election. The dollar wobbled slightly against its over currencies during the day’s session ahead of the final monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The pound pushed a little higher during the session, reaching fresh 31-month and seven-month highs against the euro and dollar respectively. Sterling was buoyed by continued strong polling for the Conservatives, including one reading from over the weekend that gave Boris Johnson’s party a 14-point lead. There were signs of some nerves, however, after a Reuters/ICM poll released in the early afternoon showed a lead of just 6pc – pointing towards a possible hung parliament.
New Tariffs to Be Waived?
The Dec. 15 deadline for new U.S. tariffs on China is looming. But the U.S. is unlikely to impose extra tariffs on a new $160 billion swath of Chinese goods including toys and smartphones come Sunday, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said. The impending date is just one of a number of events this week putting concerns over trade back at the forefront for investors and policy makers around the world. “I do not believe those [tariffs] will be implemented and I think we may see some backing away,” Purdue said at a conference in Indianapolis, Indiana Monday. American and Chinese negotiators have signaled that they may be drawing closer to agreeing on phase one of a broader accord that would resolve the trade dispute, while President Donald Trump has said that he wouldn’t mind if it takes until after the 2020 U.S. election.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Everyone is being a bit cautious this week ahead of the Fed tomorrow and also the election on Thursday (results Friday really). Polls of course get taken with a pinch of salt but the latest ones show a smaller lead by the Tories of just 6%, and a possible hung parliament. The bulls didn’t quite manage to reach the 7260 resistance level yesterday, stalling at 7256 and then dropping off, but not by much. The S&P topped out at 3150 and then dropped back as well.
For today the 7260 level is still resistance, and above this the daily resistance levels around the 7280 to 7300 area still look good for a short. We may well range this week between 7200 and 7300 until Friday. With the slightly bearish day yesterday the 30min coral has gone red with resistance to start with at 7240 but if the bulls can break this initially then we should see a rise towards those higher levels. We also now have the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7265 so its worth watching this area in case we cant push up towards the 7285 today. Repeat of yesterday maybe and all fairly lacklustre? Apart from Tullow Oil!
On the bearish side of the coin, initial support is at the 7222 level with the 200ema here on the 30min, but below this then the 2 hour moving average is at 7183 and the key fib at 7182. As such, should we drop this low then this area may well hold, though lower down we have the 2 hour coral at 7163 which has now gone green, and if that were to be tested, may well hold.
Generally for today I expecting a drop on the S&P and if the bears can break 3100 then a test of the bottom of the Raff channel and daily coral at 3080 and then 3055 look likely. The 2 hour chart has gone weak bearish as well, with that drop form 3150, and a drop down to 3123 looks possible for today.
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