FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th November 2020
- FTSE rises strongly for second day on Tuesday
- European markets rally as polls open for US election
- Beijing pulls plug on world’s biggest float
- Associated British Foods beats profit estimates despite Primark hit
- IWG says pandemic impact worse than feared
- G4S rejects rival £3.3bn offer as bidding war breaks out
And so far today as the results of the US election come through:
- Markets whipsaw as results show close election
- ‘Blue wave’ fails to materialise
- Dollar strengthens as nerves return
- Investors brace for days of uncertainty
Fox News is reporting that four states – Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – are not likely to be called this morning (remember the US is five hours behind the UK currently). That appears to confirm that we are on track for a protracted, messy outcome from a markets perspective. Investors had hoped for clarity – it doesn’t look like they’re going to get it.
It’s been a rollercoaster morning already for the FTSE 100, which is currently set to open slightly lower following the night’s events. Futures contract prices deteriorated overnight as it became clear no ‘blue wave’ had materialised, before jumping again on signs Donald Trump may have secured a surprise victory. As things stand, the mood is slowly souring as investors accept that we might be waiting a while for a full result.
Xi’s Vision
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy can double in size by 2035 and the country can reach high-income status in the next five years as the Communist Party outlined ambitious plans for the nation’s future. Based on a rough estimate, doubling economic output by 2035 would mean an annual growth rate of nearly 4.7%, said Hong Hao, chief strategist for Bocom International in Hong Kong. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the economy expanding by a mere 2.1% this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, accelerating to 8.0% in 2021.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Treasuries rose, the dollar climbed and U.S. equity futures pushed higher as early results suggested the outcome of the American presidential election could be closer than polls had suggested.
Benchmark Treasury yields swung wildly before settling lower, falling at one point below 0.8% after earlier surpassing 0.9%. The dollar advanced the most since June after erasing losses. S&P 500 futures swung between gains and losses before climbing, while a surge in Nasdaq 100 contracts triggered a brief trading halt. The offshore yuan and Mexican peso retreated and gold fell. European futures slipped.
Joe Biden scored initial wins in traditionally Democratic states in the eastern U.S. while President Donald Trump won Republican strongholds in the south and Midwest, according to the Associated Press and networks. Trump won Florida, a crucial prize in the race to the White House that closed off former Vice President Biden’s hopes for an early knockout in the election.
Trade with caution today as its going to be choppy as the results come through. I am thinking that we get a rise though as the SP has been rising steadily this week. And at the end of the day the market often leads the way. The S&P needs to break 3440 as that will lead to a rise towards 3600 and higher over the next few sessions. Can a Trump victory help it on its way? It’s certainly close at the moment.
FTSE support is at the 5740 key fib level to start with today with 5700 below that – just below S1, a round number and also just above the 200ema on the 30min chart. 5679 is also the 2 hour 100 Hull moving averages, and we also now have a green coral on that time frame following the rises this week – support at 5608 on that. Should we get that low today then we could see a bounce here. Looks a bit too positive for a drop that far though but bear it in mind. If Biden seals it then we could see a drop.
For the bulls, they are looking to break above the 5825 level as we have the top of both the Raff channels here, along with the key fib. We tried overnight but have since dropped back. A break of the 5850 will likely see a rise towards the daily resistance level at 5880 and also the daily coral at 5887. As such we could see some profit taking here.
If the election results drag on, with them being contested etc then we will likely see the markets get quite choppy. Going to be an interesting week thats for sure.
Sidelines can be a good place today while we watch it unfold, though keep an eye on the 5700 support level. 5880 for resistance. For the S&P I am watching the 3440 level for a break of that. Feels like buy the dip is still the best play. Good luck today.
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