FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th September 2020
Friday saw the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 end the day almost flat as a shaky week for currencies and stocks closed on a calm note. Futures have risen so far, after the 6000 level held on Friday. Yet again, vaccine hopes have helped. We have quadruple witching this week on Friday as the contracts roll over.
Britain’s economic rebound from the impact Covid-19 continued in July, with output expanding 6.6pc over the month. The rate of expansion was slightly weaker than expected, and marked a slowdown from June’s 8.7pc increase. Overall, the UK’s economic output returned to 2013 levels, 11.7pc below February’s reading – meaning there is still a long way to go to touch pre-virus levels. All sectors of the economy recovered, but output in a slew of industries, including airlines and restaurants, remains significantly depressed.
Market Open
Stocks were on course for a cautious start to the week as investors assessed valuations in the wake of the steep slide in tech giants and looked ahead to a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could provide clues on the outlook. S&P 500 Index futures open stronger in Asia. The dollar edged up. Currency markets saw muted moves as trading began Monday. Global stocks are coming off the back of the first consecutive weeks of declines since March, with futures pointing to a mixed start in Asia. September has brought with it a shattering of calm that had largely prevailed in the previous five months, with tech stocks leading losses. With the Fed expected this week to maintain its dovish stance on policy, investors will continue to monitor signs the global economy is recovering from the pandemic. Oil was flat.
Virus Update
U.S. coronavirus cases increased at a steady pace as the nation heads toward 200,000 deaths attributed to Covid-19. Pfizer’s chief executive officer said it’s likely the U.S. will deploy a vaccine before the end of the year. Israel’s cabinet backed a second national lockdown, which will start Friday on the cusp of a Jewish holiday season. Gatherings in the U.K. will be restricted from Monday after more than 3,000 new cases for three consecutive days. Europe got a warning of tough months ahead from Austria, where new cases reached a level last seen in March. In contrast, South Korea is relaxing its social-distancing rules after cases slowed.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks rose Monday and U.S. futures pointed higher amid a flurry of deal activity and signs of progress toward a virus vaccine. The dollar edged lower and Treasuries were little changed ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
South Korea led modest regional gains with an advance of about 1%. S&P 500 futures rose about 1%. Comments from the Pfizer Inc. CEO about the likely deployment of a vaccine to Americans by year-end buoyed sentiment, as did reports that a deal for TikTok in the U.S. is nearing a conclusion.
The futures are pointing to a positive open today, helped by vaccine hopes again. However, we are at the 6070 as I write this which we have dropped off fro overnight already and is also R1 for today. As such we may well ge a bit of a drop back before a bit more bull Monday action. The S&P defended the drop on Friday and for the moment 3342 is the new main support which the bulls will need to keep the price above.
Initial support for the FTSE is at 6030 where we have another test of the Hull moving average on the 2 hour chart and also the 30min coral line. If the bulls can defend any initial drop today then we should be on for a rise towards the next main resistance level which is around the 6105 level, from the daily coral. I can see the bears having a bit of a go here, certainly to try and get it back down towards a retest of R1 which in theory would then become support at 6070.
The bulls will of course be keen to keep the price above the 6000 level still. Above the 6105 level then 6161 is R3, but we have the top of the 10 day Raff just below that at 6145 which may well see a reaction so bear that in mind.
For the bears, if they can get it below the 6030 level then 6017 is the daily pivot, with 5985 looking key below that. We have the 2hr coral here, along with the 200ema on the 30min. 5970 is also the key fib for today and also just below the S1 level of 5975, as such, should we see this 5980 area (not sure we will though) its worth a long here. A break of the 5970 though and we will be won for a slide back to 5890, and possibly the 5800 level where we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel.
So, looking like a bull Monday today and a rise towards the 6105 level at least, possibly a bit higher. Still appears that buying the dip is the right play as the S&P looks like it will break above the 3380 200ema resistance today. If it does then we may well see that bullishness filter through to the FTSE100, though I am conscious that we are also near the top of the 20 day channel as you can see on the chart below (green channel). Good luck today.
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