FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th June 2020
That was a lot more bullish yesterday than I expected it to be, and we managed to get as high as the 6410 level to test the top of the 10 day Raff channel there. That level has seen the bulls stall though, and the S&P has dropped off its overnight high also.
Here’s a quick recap of yesterday’s events
- Growing optimism about a swift global economic recovery pushed equity markets sharply higher.
- Investors took heart from further easing of lockdowns while looking past China-US tensions and civil unrest across America.
- Brent crude futures broke the $40-mark for the first time in nearly three months
- In Europe, the London, Frankfurt and Paris indices were all solidly higher at the closing bell.
- On Wall Street, the Dow Jones had added more than 400 points by the late New York morning, doubling its opening gains.
- Continued weakness in the dollar pushed up GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
In Europe, the London, Frankfurt and Paris indices were all solidly higher at the closing bell. The FTSE 100 climbed 2.61pc to 6,382.41 while the FTSE 250 jumped 2.64pc to 17,897.08. Growing optimism about a swift global economic recovery pushed equity markets sharply higher Wednesday, as investors took heart from further easing of lockdowns while looking past China-US tensions and civil unrest across America. Crude futures cooled in later European deals, but then got a late lift from a Russian report that a new output cut deal had been agreed behind the scenes.
Tensions Take Off (Again)
The Trump administration is suspending passenger flights to the U.S. by Chinese airlines, saying it is retaliating after Beijing barred American carriers from re-entering China. The order issued Wednesday takes effect June 16, although President Donald Trump could act sooner if he chooses, the Department of Transportation said. Beijing has prevented U.S. carriers from restarting service to China, while four of its airlines have continued to fly to and from American airports this year. U.S. airlines had asked to resume service as early as June 1. The move is the latest in a long list of U.S.-China frictions over issues including trade, the coronavirus pandemic and the treatment of Hong Kong.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The global stock rally powered by investor optimism for a speedy economic recovery from the pandemic paused Thursday. The dollar recouped some of the losses that pushed it to the weakest since early March. Equities in Japan erased gains of as much as 1%. South Korea and Australia pared advances, while Hong Kong and Chinese stocks turned lower. U.S. equity futures slipped after the Nasdaq 100 earlier briefly surpassed its February closing record and banks led the S&P 500 Index to a three-month high. Treasuries retained declines as investors turned away from havens after U.S. private payrolls showed fewer job losses than forecast in May. Australian 10-year yields rose back above 1% for the first time since March.
We managed to get to 6400 on this leg up and have closed the gap left on 6th March at 6402, as well as the first test of the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6404 yesterday. That channel has of course moved up with resistance at 6474 now, so the bulls may well have some fuel left in the tank for a push higher. That said, we have the key fib for today at 6396 and as such we have initial resistance here to start with. Above this then the R1 level at 6444 (and another fib) may well be tested later if the bulls can push it higher past the 6410 level. Overnight a bit of weakness has crept in, with the S&P dropping off 3130 and the FTSE back below 6400. Should the S&P push higher though and get through 3130 then 3180 is the top fo the 10 day Raff channel and a level to keep an eye on.
Gold dropped sharply yesterday but has regained ground to get back above 1700 (just) as I write this. If gold starts to move up we may well see equities drop off a little bit here, as with the daily RSI’s running a bit hot and most above 70, traders may well be looking to bank some profits.
This week we have been looking at buying the dip but my stance has changed a bit for today and as such I’m a bit more neutral, looking at these daily resistance levels and we may well see a dip back today. We shot through the resistance levels yesterday with barely a murmur from the bears, in what may have been a classic pump.
Initial support is at the daily pivot at 6340 and then the key fib at 6301 below that. I feel like adopting a short the rallies mindset for today may well pan out. This 6400 area is certainly holding as decent resistance so far after testing 6415 overnight.
If the bears were to break below 6300 then the 200ema at 6250 is the next major support of note, but I don’t think we will get that low today, but then again, you never know!
So looking at the 6398 and 6444 as main resistance, 6340, 6300 as the main supports for today. Feeling more bearish now as well and a possible drop back. Good luck today.
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