FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd November 2020
London’s FTSE 100 inched higher Friday, up 0.3pc during the day and 0.5pc through the week, to log its third straight week of gains.
Aero and pharmaceutical stocks moved higher. Optimism ensued over the prospect of easing restrictions, a potential vaccine and hopes of a Brexit trade deal with the EU.
US markets dropped in late trading as traders weigh a conflict between the White House and Fed over emergency lending programs, against government assurances it has plenty of room to help the economy.
First Vaccinations
Vaccinations against Covid-19 in the U.S. will “hopefully” start in less than three weeks, according to the head of the federal government’s program to accelerate a vaccine. On Dec. 11 or 12, the first people will hopefully be immunized across the U.S., according to Moncef Slaoui, head of the government’s Operation Warp Speed. While an effective vaccine is expected to be widely distributed in the U.S. in 2021, hurdles remain. An advisory panel of the Food and Drug Administration is meeting on Dec. 10 to discuss emergency use authorization for a vaccine candidate. Pfizer and BioNTech have requested that authorization for their product. Here’s how the vaccine race is shaping up.
Market Open
Asian stocks began the week with gains alongside European and U.S. equity futures as traders took solace from progress toward a vaccine and signs of a recovering global economy. The dollar dipped.
South Korean equities outperformed Monday after encouraging trade data, putting the Kospi index on course for a record close. S&P 500 futures rose along with Asia-Pacific shares, while global equities remain within a whisker of the all-time high set earlier this month.
Vaccinations against Covid-19 in the U.S. will “hopefully” start in less than three weeks, according to the head of the federal government’s program to accelerate a vaccine. Japan is shut for a holiday and Treasuries won’t trade until the London open.
Successes in vaccine trials have bolstered hopes for the eventual rollout of effective shots across the world, though some investor optimism has been tempered by a continuing surge in coronavirus cases and deaths in many regions, including the U.S. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The futures have fought back Sunday night, after the S&P dropped down to 3550 at the end of Friday. On the S&P the bulls still need to break above the 3585 level for a rise towards 3600, but with that Friday drop we now have a red 2 hour coral with resistance at 3591 – so the bulls will need to work hard today if we are to get a bull Monday. That said, the omens do look good for upside today and the FTSE will certainly be trying to regain ground above the 6400 level soon.
Initial resistance is at the 6396 level where we have R1 and Friday’s high (the less said about that the better!) and I think we may well see a bit of a drop off that to start with, before a push higher later on. A rise towards the more major resistance at the 6430 level may well play out later though, especially if the S&P breaks the 3585 level that has proven a tough level to get back above last week.
Above the 6430 level then 6470 is R3, not expecting us to get that high today, but it would also coincide with the most recent high on that vaccine spike on the 16th November. If it were seen then we may well see the bears appear here in anticipation of a bit of bear Tuesday tomorrow.
For the support levels today, then the daily pivot is at 6358 and the 200ema on the 30m just below that at the 6347 level, ergo I am expecting the 6350 level to hold initially today. We also have the Hull moving average on the 2 hour at 6347 to get into the mix as well. Below that though and then S1 is at 6322 and the key fib at 6320 – around the level that held well as support all last week. The bears failed to break below 6310 so if we were to get that low today then we could well see that hold. The news flow is generally upbeat at the moment, vaccines are progressing, Christmas lockdown easing in the UK (all ready for lockdown 3.0 in Jan/Feb though!) and US vaccine roll out in the next three weeks. Plus the year end pump will start soon.
So, looking at 6397, 6430, possibly 6470 as the main resistance levels, with 6350, 6320 as the main supports. Good luck today.
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