Brexit Article 50 Triggered today | FTSE 100 Resistance 7390 | Support 7335

29th March 2017

Good morning. It took a while but the bulls eventually appeared and the 7290 level held yesterday. With cable falling sharply, oil rising and a bullish US (off the back of a rise in consumer confidence) the FTSE 100 was pushed back up to 7360 (thought it might stutter at 7345 but it really wanted to just climb higher). Overnight the strength has remained as the Asian markets built on the gains as the S&P500 posted its biggest gain in 2 weeks. Global stocks are on course for a fifth straight month of gains, with the MSCI All-Country World Index trading within a whisker of its all-time high reached earlier this month.

Of course the big UK news is that today is the today we leap into the new era as Article 50 is triggered. How will the markets react everyone wonders? As its a known variable I would presume that its already priced in – and looks like business as usual. Cable might be a different story though!

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

With the triggering of Article 50 today we might see a bit of volatility but as mentioned you would expect that something like that which is known about would be priced in. After yesterdays rise you would normally expect a bit of consolidation, however I am expecting it to push up towards the 7390 level where we have 3 resistance levels of note – 10day Raff, R1 and also a fib level. As such we might see some bears try shorting here.

Support wise, the main area is around the 7338 level where we have the daily pivot and the 30min coral. We also have the 200ema on 30min at 7332. If the bulls can defend this area then we are better placed for a more compelling rise over the next few sessions and I am watching for the high 7400’s and possibly that 7520 still.

To start with today we are at the top of the 10 day Bianca at 7369 so we may see an initial dip first thing to the 30min support at 7357, possibly the lower ones as mentioned.

We have a 4.8 dividend today as well so bear that in mind at the close.

Generally feeling bullish for today.

14 Comments

  1. Morning Nick, you referred to all country world index. First time I have heard of that so, wanted to know it there was a symbol attached to it so I can look at the chart.
    TA

    1. Dax disappointed me today. I thought FTSE long will fuel Dax to 12230 at least, but it was Dow who misled Dax today. Out at around 12200-210 for all longs from 12189 just before 4.30 (didn’t want daily funding just for nothing). I bet you all guys did well on FTSE today.
      Sometimes you never know, but it’s better to stick to one market.

  4. There you go. Thats a nice bounce off 7250 area and if we close strong today might challenge previous highs tomorrow.

  5. No I mean 7250. I am not a gnat with a life span of 3 days Sir, I am a human being with a time horizon of years.

  6. Is it just my mind playintricks gor does anyone else feel the 4hr looks bearish. 10 day MA crossed 20 day MA on daily. This leg up feels like a retrace. Have to wait and watch I suppose. Would be interested to know others thoughts

    1. OK, I get what you say about it looks bearish (the leg looks like a retrace). But what I don’t like on Daily and on 4 hour is 200EMA are still supporting and MACD turned positive on 4 hour. 200EMA may work as a support so it may not drop that easily and more likely try to push up. My EMAs reopened for long but they are capped by the rising trend line. Dax now is pushing for it’s time high so I don’t think FTSE will give up that easily.

  7. Technically its broken over the most recent high at 7357 and is sailing on to make a higher high. I refer to the 4 hour chart. Not bearish. MA crosses are no magic indicator my friend, they are random occurences with no meaning. But a breakout forming a higher high is bullish. We will cross 7400 in due course.

  8. Well i didn’t suggest 10 ma crossover is a magic indicator. Its just a sign of reducing bullish momentum especially on higher timeframes.

    I am currently working with 2 scenarios:
    1. As you say FTSE goes up and creates a new high. I would expect it would create a massive divergence in that case. Opportunities to short.
    2. This is a retrace – I am currently leaning towards this because of:
    a. Poor and inconsistent price movements on the hourly
    b. Breach of 10 ma that has acted as support on the weekly all along
    c.pinbar rally on daily is not convincing and failure to break 75 today

    I am still on the sidelines, wondering what’s playing out

Comments are closed.