28th March 2017
Good morning. The slightly lower support area of 7260 held two tests yesterday as oil rebounded from $47 and decent German data helped negate the early fears over Trump’s healthcare bill being pulled on Friday. The FTSE 100 managed to rise despite cable moving above 12500 and adding over 100, so not so much of a correlation between them yesterday.
US equities also fought back with the S&P printing a low of 2322 before rising back to 2347 this morning. The bulls even managed to break the resistance at 7300 so there is definitely a strong bullish bias at the moment – a few members that look at turn dates were saying that yesterday/today could print a low and then we get a new leg up. The 2 hour chart has flipped to bull with that rise yesterday and showing support at 7290 now.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
Well we sort of had a half hearted attempt at a bull Monday yesterday, so I am wondering if we have a similar attempt at a bear Tuesday. I am thinking that buying the dip today is a good plan, and as we now have support at the 7290 area, this is probably a good level to go for. The ASX200 had a decent performance today with a pretty bullish day from the off, which will help the commodity heavy FTSE 100.
We have initial resistance at 7330 and then 7345, so the bears might try to enter around these areas, for a run down. They would need to break 7260 to make things look bearish again, and that level did hold well yesterday so could be tough to break.
7290 has a few supports – daily pivot and a coral trend line here as well as 2 hour chart support. The 20 day Bianca is at 7282 as well for today.
On the news front we have the PM Theresa May triggering Article 50 tomorrow; US consumer confidence at 2pm today, and Yellen speaking later on today (16:50 UK time). Depending on what she talks about we may see some movement around then if any further hawkish or dovish overtones are detected.
GBP will probably have a go at hitting its 200 sma around 1.27 in next few days, its come a long way not to attempt that. Gold retreated from its 200 yesterday but remains strong. Dollar remains weak and FTSE is still a sellers market currently unable to find support above 7300.
Did you go long on the FTSE today in the end?
More to the point, did you? 🙂
Yes, am in at 7292
Out 7330
Oh, I bet you didn’t expect that 350 push? I also missed 2nd rally. But great trade, Nick!
Nope, not when its been at 7300 for most of today. Had a short order at 7345 but just closed that at breakeven
Thanks and GL, we all need it.
7315 would be nice to cash in.
12085 I got out, oh dear. maybe slightly early. But had a good price action.
Went long 7325
Tbh the last trade I didn’t even plan. I just had a punt at 12055 with 6 p. SL. and it gave me 30p. Not all punts are as great.
Yesterday was a hammer candle of sorts and we took out yesterdays high today. For me thats a mandatory entry, no discretion permitted. Only question is where to put the stop. In this case 7290 will do .
Closed all my longs at 7356.
Yeah can understand that there is a cluster of resistance here. Im hoping to run at 7400 tomorrow as Wall Street inflicts pajn on Main St who no doubt think markets may drop on article 50. Short squeeze tomorrow I reckon.
Yes a short squeeze can take it further up and I think last two days movement were just that. I would rather switch to shorts or stay on the sidelines while the market consolidates. At the moment I prefer to sit aside and wait for the next opportunity
Crazy directions from Nick. Thats very hard to do and get right more often than not.
Thanks!