FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th October 2020
On Friday, we had President Donald Trump’s positive test for coronavirus which rattled markets, with US stock markets dropping at the open. After trading down almost 1pc for most of the day the FTSE 100 closed up 0.4pc in London. The FTSE 100 eked out a gain for the day, closing up 0.4pc at 5902.1.
The closely watched monthly US jobs report showed the rate of new jobs in the American economy slowed in September, putting a further dent in the president’s re-election hopes. The yen and US Treasuries, often seen as havens in times of market stress, rose. Crude oil extended losses, with Brent down for a second day. However, news over the weekend has been more favourable and we are starting the week on the front foot, after Asian stocks climbed.
Another Drug
President Donald Trump’s doctors have added dexamethasone to his treatment, a drug that’s typically used in more severe Covid-19 patients. “The president has continued to improve,” White House physician Sean Conley, Trump’s lead doctor, told reporters on Sunday, although it wasn’t clear why they were giving him a drug typically used in deteriorating or severe patients if that was the case. At the briefing, Conley admitted earlier giving a misleading statement about the president receiving oxygen, the latest in a series of contradictory and confusing accounts about Trump’s health. He said he had told reporters that Trump had not been given oxygen Friday, when in fact he had, to “reflect the upbeat attitude” of Trump and his doctors. At Sunday’s briefing doctors insisted the president is doing well and could be discharged as soon as Monday.
Markets Rally
U.S. and Asian stocks looked set for gains Monday as traders reacted to the possibility President Donald Trump may be able to leave hospital as soon as Monday. The yen retreated. Futures pointed higher in Japan and Australia, where markets are open though volumes are expected to be low because of a holiday. S&P 500 contracts climbed after U.S. stocks finished lower on Friday in a volatile day for global financial markets. Crude oil ticked higher after Friday’s slump. The pound fluctuated following a weekend call between U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Brexit.
Fish Fights
Brexit is set for a showdown at a European Union summit this week. French President Emmanuel Macron’s reluctance to make concessions on fishing rights is stirring concern among officials he could sink efforts to reach a wider trade accord as negotiators begin a two-week period of intense talks on Monday. The fishing industry may represent only a tiny proportion of the French and U.K. economies, but it has assumed out-sized political importance lately: Britain is keen to reclaim its seas, while the EU risks losing prime fishing grounds. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, will discuss Brexit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday too, a sign the bloc is weighing where it can and cannot make concessions. Meanwhile it’s not looking any rosier for the British Prime Minister at home. He said he knows people are “furious” over the way his government has handled the pandemic, but warned that coronavirus will make for a “very tough” winter, with difficulties lasting through Christmas and beyond.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks climbed with U.S. futures as traders reacted to the possibility President Donald Trump may be able to leave hospital as soon as Monday. The yen retreated and Treasuries dipped.
Shares jumped in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia, where volumes were lower than normal because of a holiday. South Korean stocks saw a more modest rise. S&P 500 futures climbed after U.S. equities finished lower on Friday in a volatile day for global financial markets.
The futures have recovered from Fridays drop as Trumps condition has improved (apparently!) and may be released from Walter Reed today. Asian markets have headed higher and the S&P is now near to the 3375 day resistance and the 2 hour resistance at 3380. As such we may see a bit of a dip that that area initially, though as I write this it looks like we will be on for a bull Monday today. The FTSE is also near to its first daily resistance level at 5957 and again lends weight to a small drop at the open.
We have some decent looking supports for today though with 5920 first up for a back test of the key fib we have broken above, and also a test of the 25ema on the 30min chart. If this level holds then we should see a rise towards the 5999 level, and the round number resistance at 6000. We also have the daily red coral here though for resistance.
Below 5920 then there are a cluster of supports at the 5880 level and a long here looks to be worth a go. We have the 200ema and a green coral on the 30min along with the daily pivot here. If this holds then we may well continue to build on Fridays bounce from the 5800 level.
The S&P looks like it will continue to rise towards the 3420 20 day Raff channel top as well, once it breaks above the 3380 level.
Above the 6000 level on the FTSE 100 we have the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6060 and that would be the next likely target level for the bulls. If Trump is discharged after such a short stay then we could easily see a decent rally across the board and 6060 may well be reached. Seems a bit of a tall order but you never know!
So, generally looks positive for today and a rise towards 6000 and possibly 6060, 3400+ on the S&P would make sense, as long as the bulls can break the initial resistance levels. watch 5920 and 5880 for support. Good luck today.
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