Bounce for a while now?

Good morning.  Thanks for all the comments posted on the site by everyone, its great that we all help each other out in what is a very hard pastime, despite what you read about how to make millions doing 10 minutes a day. On that note, please can you refrain from boasting about how much money you make and stake per point. Its all relative and doesn’t really mean anything and I feel that it helps the community spirit by talking analysis and strategy rather than shouting “loads a money” while twanging your red braces. Mostly it just pi**es everyone off!

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I think its fairly safe to say that the 6480 level held on Friday… Big question is whether this is the start of the Santa Rally or not, and certainly the decent NFP news on Friday added fuel to the rally and that scenario. In that case, good news was good! We could still be on track for the 6800 year end close. Seems a bit of confidence is returning that the global economy could actually support itself if stimulus is reduced. As indeed should be the case, and as the Fed have said all along, QE will only be reduced if the data (US and globally) supports it. Personally, I still think tapering will start at the beginning of Q2 2014.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks climbed after better-than-estimated data on U.S. jobs and Chinese exports. A gauge of Indian equities headed for a record close and the rupee gained as the nation’s main opposition party won state polls, while rubber advanced.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.7 percent by 2 p.m. in Tokyo, rebounding from the biggest weekly drop since August. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures added 0.2 percent after the gauge snapped a five-day slump Dec. 6. India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex Index gained 1.8 percent and the rupee rose to its strongest level since August. Rubber futures jumped to the highest in more than two months, while natural gas gained as much as 1.5 percent in New York.

U.S. employers added more workers to nonfarm payrolls than economists had expected in November and Chinese exports climbed the most in seven months, spurring confidence that the global economy can withstand a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus. India’s main opposition party is gaining momentum ahead of a 2014 national election, winning four local polls held over the past month. German industrial production rose 0.7 percent in October from a month earlier after falling 0.9 percent the prior month, according to economists surveyed before data due today.

“A solid payroll report boosted confidence that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand tapering,” Shane Oliver, who helps oversee $131 billion as head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, said by e-mail. “Market valuations are reasonable, monetary conditions are set to remain very easy and profits will improve next year.”

U.S. Payrolls

U.S. employers added 203,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls last month, more than the 185,000 increase predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate dropped to a five-year low of 7 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee will probably start cutting its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to 34 percent of economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Dec. 6, up from 17 percent in a Nov. 8 poll.

China Data

China today reported inflation slowed more than estimated last month, after data yesterday showed export growth helped swell the nation’s trade surplus to $33.8 billion, the widest since January 2009. Outbound shipments rose 12.7 percent from a year earlier, topping projections from 41 of 42 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“China’s exports points to a recovery in the world economy,” Mark Matthews, the Singapore-based head of Asia research for Julius Baer, which oversees about $377 billion in client assets, said on Bloomberg Television.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Resistance initially is 6573 which is the level we are looking at opening at, and after Fridays decent rise we are actually nearing the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6605. The Bianca channel tops are also in play, having exceeded the 10 day at 6556 for today, the 20 day is 6624, so we may see some dipping from this sort of area. If it was to go really pear shaped for the bulls today (or this week in fact) then support is still at that 6480 level, but if that breaks then 6403 is likely. I think it might be a tad early for the Santa Rally to kick in, but you never know! Looking at the daily chart we do have a few resistances coming up soon that will need to be jumped to maintain that rally. Namely, a ProTrend at 6585, and then the Raffs and Biancas.

69 Comments

  1. Couldn’t agree more Nick. Entry points, analyses and strategies are always good to read. Best to ignore the other stuff….
    Guess we wait for the US open to give some direction today?

  2. Last one promise before I go back to bed 🙂 if Sarj comes back on this site later please re-direct him to the other site, FTSE 100 day trader for MILLIONAIRES!! LOL 😉

      1. Sorry Raymond, why on earth would anyone be jealous of ‘GHOST’ trades that clearly don’t exist?? Like I said Sarj was the one who conveniently vanished after posting his alleged super duper £250pp trade at the 6517 level and boldly predicting a 70-100 point rally from his 6517 entry level. Instead we FIRST dropped some 57 points…so at £250pp we all want to know how he survived? Did he have the required £20k plus in capital or did he take a loss on a conservative 30-40 points stop loss equating to £7.5k-10k loss. So why come on and brag such nonsense and vanish, and reappear when the rally comes??

        Sarj does NOT reply when the 57 point dip to 6460 materialised, and instead posts on Friday.. “Ray.Like I predicted”…..so Mr. Raymond…don’t blame me!! Blame him for his nonsense and BS, and as for saying I am jealous, looks like you share some similarities with Sarj, you two should hook up and share trading ideas on your DUMMY accounts, what a BIG IDIOT you are Raymond!!

        Absolutely no common sense or understanding as to the explanation regards his account when the 57 point dip happened, REMEMBER AT £250pp, NOT £2.50pp, I explained this quite clearly, obviously it went over your head, you don’t understand it, if you such a smart ass why don’t you offer a plausible explanation?? Or go to your local secondary school and get some 11 year old to explain it to you, it’s not hard!!

        Next time, switch your bloody brain on first before you make silly baseless accusations!! PLONKER!!

        1. And it’s jealousy NOT jelosy, you misspelt the word twice, on the previous day’s entry as well, once is allowable, but twice, shows you are a retard!!! Obviously goes back to you being a PEABRAIN!! 🙂

  3. It always nice to read comments here but lately it gas been clustered with irrelevant chit chat. Its nice of nick to point this out as i was thinking if it would stop. Come in everyone lets keep all the posts in line with nicks assessments and our opinions rather than R & B. trade ideas are always welcome.
    Ps
    No disrespect to anyone.

      1. ok great. i think most of time we both trading same direction :).
        Good to see we dropped from like 6593 to below 6550s

          1. no al, confidence! lol.
            but yeh we can be … especially if im being overconfident, first sign haha!

  5. POMO today should be about the same as last Friday. The US indices are running high. Will the FTSE try to catch up?

  7. senu long time glad to see you back and good to hear your bullish. what you aiming for 10-20 points ?

  8. still holding my long from 6680 haven’t done much since as haven’t had the stones. tempted to add today but the way ftse has been trading its been impossible so thinking snp and dow are the better bullish bets

  9. oh exactly 😉 also noticed short interest in the snp is quite high meaning that probably has more legs. the ftse who knows when the banks and miners (and oil (which is moving v v v slowly) ) will turn

  13. was wondering people who are going long whats ur reasoning?
    Isn’t the 50 point retracement from 6590ish to 6540ish not enough to show that pulls not strong enough?
    Need some views from people who are bullish to see if my bearish views are correct

    1. I personally have had better success trading up and down the daily channels, as opposed to holding for one way. Mainly because any big moves the other way, I cannot afford to keep running, for example Friday when I had a short that did not materialise.

      1. thats the price u have to pay with holding for longer period..u need to have the guts to watch 50% of ur profit evaporate such that u can catch more of the trend..
        I trade both short term and medium term..if im confident that i might be on to a trend then ill follow it as much as u can..and i dont care what people say but from my own EXP “ALL!”the time u do end up giving some of the profit back wen trying to follow the trend

  14. I think the historical spread between dow and ftse as well widest its been in a while hashmash. I also think most people myself included looking at the u.s and being “biased” by price action there. you are right though ftse does trade like t*urd and everyone at the moment HOPING that turns rather than have any firm catalyst for this to change. im sure that’s music to your ears Hashmash !

  15. would be good to get nicks thoughts ? Nick your bullishness mainly centred around your view on the taper or something else ?

    1. Mainly as that 6480 held pretty well, Dax has bounce back strongly to over 9200, S&P back above 1800…

  16. Even though I’m trading anymore as still keeping my long till year end. Couldn’t resist the bashing of bsers. Will let you guys know if I trade any forex but better safe than sorry!
    P.s Hashmash we are still in a very strong weekly/monthly uptrend. Personally though,we are all bias towards our own positions, hence even without opening any new positions it nice to read nicks view amongst others to see where it could be going.
    Gl all

    1. yeah thats the word “biased”..thats why im looking for people with bullish views and why they think that because my brain is just saying bear bear bear on ftse.
      Good thing ive cut 2/3 of my shorts around 6510ish level so i can have less pressure.

  18. So……..

    Can I have everyone’s 2pence worth please.

    I have a short DAX posution opened at 9148. (don’t ask) Shall I close it to break even or hold to try and get a few extra points back?

  21. i have a short on dax hoping to retrace back to9150 ish before end of week , then a push further on back up t0 9300/350 before xmas may even get a pull back under 9100 before pushing on got a stop at 9130

    1. Hayabusa, that was what i was thinking but I have a feeling it may push further up then fall back. After last Friday’s out of ours movements I think there is possibly some more upside but now it’s moving in the opposite direction to the FTSE and DOW ?!?!? .

  22. Hashmash – Im bullish for similar reasons Nick gave this morning…see my post late Friday. Some of the uncertainty has gone and some confidence building data is in the public domain. A drift down on a Monday FTSE isn’t something to get bent out of shape about imo. This PM could be more telling tho…good luck!

  23. of the late the dax pulses to overbought then back to over sold before settling , very difficult to predict the swings however overtime if a conservative stance is taken usually it will swing back in favour i state push back up to 9350 ish as a settling mark from recent highs over 9400 i would suggest a settling at 9300 after a move back to 9150 from the oversold of 9070 last week and overbought of 9400 ish

    1. im looking to add to short around 6600 lol, i had the stops for 6600 for friday evening and sunday overnight

  25. nick as a side note i have an order in for long at 9040 and a cancelling short at 9400, with daily plays in between these

    1. Hayabusa,
      Those orders are good levels. Do you mean that the 9400 short closes your longs and adds a short or just closes your longs? And does the 9040 long close the shorts?

  27. nick yes thats right , my short closes my long at 9400 and opens short back down through the trading range and vica versa, these are my long time plays , but i trade much more often inside these limits where i look for 20 pips profit then take a breather very rare over a days i dont pull some kind of profit although that said , i have pushed the limits sometimes where i think it has runaway too far , however my reserve keeps me in the game and always allows for a retrace , i think over time if you set a calculated reserve for runaway days you will more often than not if panic doesnt set in come back to some knd of profit stance

    1. two consecutive days is too much. More than 100 points on Friday. A lot of profit taking today

  31. Just saw Raymond stabbing me in the back ABOVE whilst I was asleep!! 🙂 He couldn’t resist…lol..PLONKER!!

  32. I drew a line under it this morning until I saw Raymond’s post above

    Nick is correct, shove elsewhere if you want to come on and brag about your ‘supposed’ trades. However, I would still say it is okay to post £pp as long as it is sensible, as it gives an idea to trading strategy, obviously a lower £pp can withstand bigger price moves and a greater stop loss level, or even no stop loss level, for example if you traded at say £3pp and on Friday’S big rally, if you were shorting, you could have held on to the 6593 short squeeze that happened.

    Sensible of course is a relative word,I would say and £pp under £50 is fine…you may disagree, most will be trading in the £2-£15 range, a few £20pp plus.

    Happy trading! 🙂

  34. 😀 love to read this comments nothing to do with technicals or fundamentals.
    In my country we have a discussed forum in stock market, and we often come across with this kind of discussions and the manager bans all of them.
    But nevertheless I like to read. It amuses me.

  37. Today was s**** day. Only looking and doing nothing. The markets seemed lazy as me

  39. A ‘flag’ lol 🙂 today indicating (just the one indicator!) to go LONG on the S&P 500… hmm 🙂

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