6480 held so far…

Good morning. FTSE is being very odd this week and yesterday continued that trend. Its certainly making itself very hard to trade! S&P isn’t much better either! Anyway, we had a dip to near the 6480 then a rise to the pivot and then that was it, we stayed around 6500 for the rest of the day. Things moved a bit more in the evening when the price dropped to test that 6480 level properly, and from where we have had a bounce. Judging from the emails some of you kept the order for that level which has now taken. Nice to wake up to a +20 on that too (the target originally was 6511, but might be a better one to trail the stop on if you still have it open). Today is NFP news day so likely to be slightly more choppy around 13:30 as yet again the headline will generate tapering thoughts – will they won’t they and when? Of course the bottom line is that they will taper, that’s a given, and most likely it will be slowly reduced rather than stopped in one go. I still reckon that will start in Q2 next year, provided that data still warrants it. Still, the soon global economies can stand on their own two feet the better.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark index set for its biggest weekly drop since August, as improving U.S. economic data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve may bring forward stimulus cuts.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 139.76 as of 2:01 p.m. in Hong Kong, after falling 0.1 percent. The gauge is heading for a 1.6 percent decline this week, the most since the five days ended Aug. 23. Fed policy makers meet Dec. 17-18 after minutes of their October gathering showed they may reduce $85 billion of monthly bond buying should the U.S. economy improve as anticipated.

“We’ve seen a very good string of economic data from the U.S. in recent weeks and that suggests we’re getting closer to a Fed tapering,” Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. in Wellington, said by phone. “Although the general consensus is for tapering to happen in 2014, the chance of a December tapering have gone up. That will drag equity markets weaker and push bond yields higher.”

The U.S. posted the fastest annualized growth last quarter since the start of 2012 and jobless claims unexpectedly fell as the focus turns to today’s November non-farm payrolls, projected to rise by 185,000 workers. Malaysia said today exports rose more than expected, while protesters in Thailand have said they’ll resume rallies against the government.

U.S. GDP

Futures (SPA) on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent today. The gauge slid 0.4 percent yesterday, falling for a fifth day, as improving economic data boosted bets the Fed will cut stimulus sooner than estimated. In a Bloomberg Global Poll Nov. 19, four of five investors said they expected the Fed to put off a decision to start reducing its bond buying until March 2014 or later.

U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, up from an initial estimate of 2.8 percent and the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2012, data showed. Claims for unemployment benefits decreased 23,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Nov. 30, after the median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 320,000.

A report today is expected to show the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent last month to match the lowest level since 2008. Payrolls rose by 204,000 workers in October.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

I mentioned yesterday that if 6480 holds then we could get a bit of a bounce. I thought we would test that level first thing, instead we tested last thing, but it has held so far. The Bianca trends are now showing 20 day channel support at this level too, though granted the 10 day channel is still pointing to more downside.

As I have been writing this is jumped a bit too and broken through the daily pivot resistance at 6501 so its certainly generated some bullish interest by holding that level. De3cember has been pretty messy so far, and a bloodbath for bulls, but if this level does hold then it looks a bit better. As has been the case for a while the major indices are at possible bounce areas, which could mean the FTSE climbs back as well. Initially today it will need to break 6510 to have a better foundation for a rise, which opens up 6530 the 6556 (top of the 10 day Bianca channel and 20 day Raff). There is a fair bit of resistance at this level though.  Dax, FTSE and S&P all look good for an early push higher but it might be short lived.

235 Comments

    1. Pity the rally on the FTSE was not self generated, while the US futures were flat.
      All said its up for a change. The daily trend is up now, buy the dips and sell at resistances..

  3. RSI levels in smaller timeframes looking crazy. OVERBOUGHT. 😀 We may have a reversal here. That new trend line is looking good. Now 6550 and then last weeks levels.

      1. The RSIs on the FTSE are more or less what the were on the 9th October 2013… when the FTSE closed at 6337… and just before it went on a bit of a bull run…. hmm 🙂

        2. Yes its true. I saw that yesterday. The Daily RSI is just touching the bottom as Oct.
          But 200 ma is what strikes me the most.
          And noone mentioned it.
          Maybe its good sign 😀

  4. Yes agreed – my guess is that this will dip towards the 130 deadline and assuming the figures arent out of this world then that will be my buying point. It does seem to have a bit more oomph in it after the recent days

  7. im gonna still hold my short, and then depending on the market move after job data ill either be fully closing short and sitting on side lines or adding shorts :).
    In the back of my head i’m believing the NFP wont be bad meaning market drops.

    2. I know they have all risen today so far but as at the end of day trading yesterday there was still a downward push on the FTSE, DAX and CAC… in that order with the CAC being pushed the most… of course it could be all change today… you just never know… always hard to tell… hmm 🙂

      1. Interesting, there was a clear sign of a push upward on 09/10/2013… just before the FTSE went on a bit of a bull run… hmm 🙂

        1. At the end of the day if there is some sudden reversal we are almost guaranteed to miss it lol 🙂

    2. Yes definitely with the NFP….so expect the usual whipsaw action as the figures, restatements and breakdown are released.

  10. FTSE closing today above 200 ma, will mean it was below for only one day, which makes sense. The last downtrends were separated by bigger space in time.
    As we have tasted these levels very recently, so it would be somehow expected to be below 200 ma lesser time

  11. No doubt we’re seeing the FTSE level out currently and attempting a rebound. But this lacks conviction at this point, unsurprisingly, given the uncertainties around US POMO and data releases later on today. I think it’s a little early to say that we have even a short-term uptrend developing – the 4-hr. view is still dominated by negative drift, and ≈6700 is a long way away!

    1. we need a big big fall in ftse in a short period before a rebound, this is my view (and i think today provides a very good scenario for it).
      I really am expecting the NFP to come out better (that last months or better than estimate)

      2. I hope you are betting in your indicators solely. NFP is only noise and you never can trade based on that. You have to count in the bigger picture and your indicators

  12. After NOV.7 you had to be cautious long. For shorts was the riskier and most profitable place to go short.
    And this is where we are right now, with a little twist – shorting is becoming a little riskier (Indicators showing a lot of oversell) but nevertheless where are still in BEAR ground and they have the ball.

  13. Daily candle inside Bollinger Bands for 1st time in 4 days. A close inside means most of time reverse

    2. Yes, it moved outside the lower Bollinger (20,20) band on the 09/10/2012… and back in again on the 10/10/2013… at the start of a reversal and significant bull trend… hmm 🙂

      1. Not only from Oct.9, is more like a technical almost granted issue. Look at charts randomly

  14. Bit of a lottery NFP but I reckon it will come in slightly under last months high would of been partly due to seasonaly hiring.

  15. That thing about this week being “good news is bad news”, you can argument also that “good news is profit taking”

  18. Caught it at 6540 and just sold off for nice little take, still holding on to yesterday’s short. Hoping NFP data will push it down a bit further and then I will start buying…

  19. Damn!

    I did a £7.70 per point buy at 1.29:58 and then saw it shot up to around £950 profit but by the time I could close it, it fell straight back down! Arghh

  20. 😀 dow spike to 16075. I had an alert at 16070. Id I had a short placed instead 😀

  21. Bloody algos all computer driven….dow spiked to 16073 for a second before back down to 15850!! Not investors….MACHINES used by traders…not investors…

    1. and close it at 6500 lol…now im still 1/3 of original position short..
      amazing £1500 profit in 3 minutes LOL

  24. Yes Javed…basically any excuse by the ‘experts’ to spin it a dozen ways to make money on NFP…

  26. seriously currently i have no direction of where the market will be.
    Glad im oinly 1/3 of my original position.
    With this data (happy i got the prediction on NFP correct!) maybe people will think that economy is strong enough to taper QE!

  27. So NFP is better than expected…that’s what the U.S. mkt has been selling all week in anticipation that NFP will be better than expected…so today now NFP is out shouldn’t dow sell off?? On rational premise tapering more likely..yet dow now up 105….fixed!!!

    1. Read my post earlier with my argument. “good news is profit taking”
      I think we already had enough of that

  29. Today..at the moment anyway..good news is good news. Lol….will change umpteen times by U.S. close…no shame CNBC make no comment on the irrational move by dow beubg up 120 now on good NFP..

  30. Funny how you can trade and post at the same time Hashmash lol.

    So PMS I called 6470 and we are up and away, finally broke even at 6542

    1. ahwab i can, because im used to executing multiple markets…can show screenshot of the trade if u want lool

      1. and by saying im used to executing multiple markets (not on my account) is because i did it for 2 years at a hedge fund.

    2. YEs 6470 was the support I mentioned to be the 1 st one. If it broke or not is other story.
      Not the 6400 that people were saying even when we were at upper levels.

  31. set my stop loss for today to 6600 for my shorts which i have been running.
    Now time to close trading screen and continue as the market right now is totally out of control..cant risk watching it every second and then react based on emotions!
    My strategy is still showing bears…but like i mentioned, my strat can either show in this scenario a reversal after moving e.g 100 points up or when dropping e.g 100 points (this is just a random number of points).
    So im not sure if we already got a reversal right now or if we going to see more bears.. hence im willing to close all my shorts by 6600 and not risk it and take home a VERY VERY healthy profit 🙂

    1. from at least 200 you are exiting in only 80. Well my trade to the upside was much more profitable

      1. You made more money in 1 minute, than in 3 weeks 😀 comparing the performance ofc

  33. CNBC clueless as usual….they are failing to explain why dow futures are up some 150 on good NFP data when they have been scaring us shitless all week that mkts are falling and that this trajectory will continue when NFP data is good because Fed tapering is imminent. Anyone want to explain the dow move today on economic fundamentals?? No….ok then…how about on common sense???

  34. That is why I tend to ignore some people on this forum, some as bad as bloomberg bsers. Talking about reversals 2 weeks in advance 17/18th what have you.
    Personally not intending to open any more indices positions till year end, looking at forex now. Gl all.

      2. You are the bear here. You are in charge 😀
        I’m just looking for clues for a reversal. Not yet saying it

    1. I already once made a trade with that 50pp which was a bit higher in my leverage account, but nevertheless nothing than a stop can handle. Made 4 points and exit, but very stressful indeed until you can put your stop at b/e.
      No interesting in doing again.

    2. I dont want to start talking about how much money im trading with etc.
      but 50pp for such a small period was a very very high risk trade and the reason i took it is because i was correct in saying NFP going to be better but at same time i knew i would hold it for very small period because of unemployment rate..
      and i also mentioned this i think yesterday with better reports markets might shoot up because then it can be thought of as tapering is ok as growth is good.
      but yes i dont usually do these huge short term trades..i took a risk because i wouldnt be in a loss this month even if it went against me..
      soon as i went in the market with 50pp market moved down i was in a loss of i think like 1-2 points at most before it tumbled.
      It was pure luck mate if i didnt take it out at 6500 i would have 100% taken out at 6510. Or if the market moved 20 points away from me then id be out aswell.

      1. For me 50pp is RISK enough, but a NFP trade with 50pp is SUICIDAL.
        ROLETA RUSSA how we say from the movie the hunter

        1. PMS i dont do this often, this time i have made enough profit from shorting from nearly the top..so i can risk my profits and even then ill come out profitable..so right now i was only risking portion of my unrealized profits and not my capital.

  36. Good luck Ahwab…all the best…many thanks for your informative posts…you display a lot of common sense..and most importantly the key attributes of sensible trading regards size of trade and patience. Keep an eye on £/$…short it at the rallies..trajectory seems up..possible 1.65…but the bstds have got to book their profits soon and not the chickenfeed as of late..i.e. 50 pips here and there.

    Keep posting even if its forex…:-)

  37. Problem with that analysis Hashmash is that it is impossible to trade rationally…i.e..good NFP news is interpreted as good news..mkts rally on premise that the economy is strong and can withstand tapering and the simultaneous position that if NFP is bad news mkts STILL RALLY as well on the premise that Fed tapering is unlikely…tantamount to making a toss on a double headed coin…win..win…you cannot trade like that as otherwise it is just a gamble.

    1. it would be a gamble if i risked my capital…i risked unrealized profits..my net position was only +3 lots at that time so its not a gamble or a bad trade at all.
      if the market went up id be making a profit….if market went down id be losing a portion of my unrelized profit…
      if i took a naked position with +5 lots right on/before NFP release then yes thats a gamble..but what u dont see is that im up 156 points from short position and it was worth the risk because at most id only lose like 26 points of that profit…and the risk paid off.

  39. Good news is profit taking….nice one PMS…:-) Hedge funds short covering..booking profits..bstds….they did it immediately on the 500 or so point up down up move in the dow…work it out…15880 to 16070..back down to 15880 now back up to 15980..NFP is just a big pay day for hedge funds..nothing else..

  40. Well done Hashmash…it worked for you as you explained but for others who were not in such a favourable position it was dificult to view NFP as a win win in both scenarios…i.e. if good data rally…and if bad data still rally…rational traders would interpret the data one way or the other…

    1. yeah Ray exactly thats what im saying..if i didnt have such a profitable short from before i would never do this.

  41. I was just reading, the reason market is up today its not that good news was interpreted as good. Those morons over the pond are convinced that the numbers were good but not good enough to taper!!..Incredible, it looks like unless helicopter Ben comes out and say we slowing down, they are not going to believe it …lol

  42. Adam, they spin it anyway they want to as long as NFP is payday…and the biggest one of the month…as always….lately NFP has exhibited intraday moves in excess of 300 points easily..today was a whopping 500 so far!!! Lol…u need guts to trade dow on big stakes on NFP..

    1. u need guts to trade dow on normal days LOL.
      i remember when i thought oh dow moves more (point wise) than ftse..let me trade it with 12 point stops..i dont think i ever had a winning trade on dow ..EVER lol

  43. .. dont forget today was another big pomo, the yankee euphoria will wear out before the close 🙂

  44. For me is dump and pump.
    We may have reverse today, bears now have to struggle in their own territory.
    Bulls invaded them 😀
    I’m looking for entry longs, next week. Wanna see first some more signals
    Looking for another 500 points up. We cross above 200 ma today.

    1. THat daily candle inside BB and above prior day + reaction to this new trend line + 61,8 Fibo + cross above 200ma, has almost all the ingredients.
      Wanna see follow trough next week, meaning, no close below today

    3. this could mean, we may reach the 7000 mark in the coming weeks.
      Accordingly with my calculations 😀
      THat 200 ma never let me down

      1. I made a profitable trade in the last uptrend in Oct. Could had been more profitable if I had closed in the highs. But it’s something I’m working on. Only 50% banked.

        1. Really did not expect to see the 200ma so soon. Look at the charts and see for yourself.

  45. I do not know if anyone noticed where the spike at NFP hit in DOW. Well… it hit the gravestone doji daily candle 16073 made a couple days ago.
    Interesting indeed
    I had an alert at 16070. If instead I had a short I had made big money in a couple of minutes.

    1. Yes, I was watching the Dow at 13:30 – thought that the FTSE would be a poor imitation. But I am well pleased, my little portfolio, which has been seeing difficult times of late, is suddenly looking a lot more robust.! 🙂

      1. Yes, we may have reverse today. Let’s see the US close today.
        Some people are talking about the H&S in SPX, but a close above 1803 would weaken that formation

  47. 😀 starting to see a lot of people willing to short. I remember the same has we were climbing. Wanna see more

    1. To ‘come up trumps’ means to succeed, perhaps in the face of a little adversity, just like Hashmash. 🙂

  51. Second biggest POMO day of month..massive $4.25-$5.25 bn…nothing got to do with NFP data being good news is good news…only pomo of this magnitude can generate a 200 point rally..nice…make money by shorting and scaring shitless everyone this week by saying if NFP data is good then tapering is imminent..possibly December….when figures are indeed good..no sell off….instead..200 point rally…shorts booking profits and going long….lovely scam…all on the back of knowing that today is 2nd biggest pomo day of month…next biggest one is on 19th…the biggest…a day AFTER fed meeting decision…lol…more manipulation…more fireworks..smoke and mirrors..smoke and mirrors..good weekend all…gym time..:-)

  57. Hashmash is this moment with the same feeling, as I was in the uptrend move.
    He just can believe it. This f*** indice must come f*** down, all things are for this to happen 😀
    You missed a good opportunity at major support 6470, as I missed a good opportunity at the shooting star close 😀
    you may have another chance in consolidation, but then again you will think this will for another leg down and miss again as I missed the 6790

  60. Lol..Sarj…you probably got stopped out or liquidated on the leg down…If I recall correctly you were long from 6610 or 6620…so when we touched low of around 6560…at £250pp means your loss was between £12.5k and £15k if you had no stop loss…if you did have a stop loss then it obviously means you took a loss somewhere….so your account size must be minimum of £20k….if it is..then on this leg up from 6610-20 your profit was between £14k and £16k..I would guess you got stopped out on 60 point leg down….

  61. Sarj only you know what really happened…you should have updated us on the leg down at the time…i.e. contemporaneously with the drop from 6620 to 6560….you got lost…I did post here commenting on your trade when it dipped big…you didn’t reply..no use after the event…when we get the rally…material issue is did you HAVE the required £15k for potential loss for the dip down to 6560 and the £6k or so for margin for maintaining a size of £250pp??? Lol

  62. Or did you get stopped out say after a conservative 30 points? So 30 × £250pp..loss is £7.5k…please enlighten me thanks..:-)

    1. Lol Ray, don’t encourage. You can bet your bottom Dola, but you will never really know the truth.

  64. I got stopped out at £210 profit re bought at 6470 and 6500 extra buy. Still waiting for over 6580. Stops at 6550

  65. Very funny Flash…lol….bottom DOLA…:-) Trade sizes like that make my head spin…on say £250pp on a day like today you can make net £25k…not bad for a day’s work….missed gym..got late…Monday now 🙁

  66. So you made some £25k on the 100 point rise from 6570 to 6675…at £250pp…very impressive…time for you to hit the Brioni counter at Harrods…ask for a guy called Bilal there..a good friend of mine…he will look after you…or even better let me be your personal shopper for the day…:-)

  68. Just need a few more points to come off the dax before 9pm, so I can wipe a few more points of my shorts. (I just don’t learn, shorting dax from over a year ago lol).

  69. I only trade maybe once a week. Wen I have a good idea on oversold/ undersold stock.
    Example for next week.
    Buy/long tesco x 10k to 50k at 331 maybe 332 for a 10-15p rise. U don’t have to do it! Just watch…… Then come back to me!!

    1. Personally I would put an order in for TSCO at 327 with low points to allow for a bit of a drop lower due to stop hunting. Going for the 10-15 points is a good plan as I feel the likes of tesco, ASDA (walmart) are suffering in the UK due to lack of spare cash people have. Aldi ect are increasing their sales, while ASDA are down 5-6% on like for like yearly.

  70. I trade equities as well Sarj…been doing so 5 years…very familiar with the swings and roundabouts…Long Ferrexpo from £1.65…Shorted Lloyds at 79.2p ..long Barc from £2.45 to £2.74…Taylor Wimpey shorted from £1.11.. Anglo American long from £12.67 ..Shorted Rio from £33.15 etc etc just some recent trades…forex as well sometimes…

  71. Mine was £68pp on FTSE back in Jan.averaged down..shorted from 6000..hit high of 6365..gave up…stopped eating in those 3 weeks with stress and slept in sleeping bag next to computer in office with alerts as market moved over to asian session…scared shitless..liquidation was staring me in the face…stops near being hit.in the end threw towel in and took huge losses…..never again unless I have the account size to handle big sizes…

    1. Yep I can concur, it is stressful. Better to do smaller and less frequent trades. Been there and done it all, except the sleeping bag.

  74. Sorry re Sarj’s trade meant 6510-20 and 6460…what’s a 100 point out on FTSE on a volatile week..lol..

  76. This site seems to be full of tossers either bragging about what teases they made after the time, or losers asking what direction to take.
    Guys if you lot are making £25k a day you would not be on a site like this . No offense to Nick … He offers good advise , a good strategy , and a fairly accurate prediction … But it’s only Nicks opinion . Most of the others on this site are losers sitting in a sad little bedsit somewhere . Get a life …. You all know who I mean. Its pathetic !!!! Lol
    A

    1. I agree, a few weeks/months back there seemed to be a better community on here. Now theres a few new guys popping up trying to flex their muscles. If you can make 25K in a day, why are you on FTSEdaytrader . com ….??? Lots of “apparent” trades taken which are posted here after the time the price was at that level. It is annoying for people like me who actually want to read genuine posts. I guess you just have to learn to ignore the noise, ignore the posts from certain people who seem to try to dominate this. I value the posts that Al, Javied, Jim, Senu, Sam and Ahwab share as they seem genuine. As much noise on here as there is on the news… We need to learn to filter through.

    2. lol Dave kinda agreed with u there..i mean if u trading 250pp u would be trading futures not spreadbetting LOL.
      I mean if i had enough capital to trade £250pp and hold for 100 point moves against me…id rather have that cash in a portfolio not spreadbetting ftse loooool

      Anyway if people say they do then i guess they do…in their own eyes.
      Theres still some good people around here who give their views on market..but every now and then someone comes over and says yep made 25k today ..like LOL i cant understand 25k in a day!
      to trade £250 u need £1250 in margin…£25k cash so withstand 100 point move (assuming u got 1:1 risk reward).. thats £26.25k…and people thinking they willing to risk £26.25k in 1 TRADE! Well u either gotta be very rich to do that or just a bullshitter. I’d risk that if i £250k cash…and even then id be shitting my pants.
      Then again if i had £250k …£200k be in a portfolio and id trade with £50k myself…better yet..buy a property and rent it out easily for £1.2k a month .. pure guaranteed profit hahah.

  78. Just an update for me..who care or watching my trades.
    Currently I am only 1/3 short of my original position.
    I have been looking for a pullback for last 2 days or so and this is something today i was expecting.
    But yes i am bit scared as the markets do seem a bit strong but im going to stick to my strategy which is still showing bearish sign not as much as before (or maybe this is a reversal?)…only the markets will show next week.
    I think Ahwab mentioned as well, 6600 before more downside.
    For today out of ftse market hours i had set my SL to 6600..I most likely will have that set as well for early hours on monday (sunday overnight)…but if i see weaknesses I will be adding to short position.
    GL all

  79. “something today i was expecting.” by that i mean something like today i was expecting…not that i predicted this was going to happen today..if i did i wouldve closed my shorts LOL

  80. Bad day Dave?! I love this site…only found it on Tuesday. Thanks to Nick and all the regular posters….you know who you are 🙂 Some great insights which help maintain perspective in these crazy times. Who cares what others say they have won or lost…as long as it doesnt affect my p+l haha

  82. I thought it was just me on this site with a monopoly on being grumpy and criticising and being cynical all the time…oh well…looks like the disease is spreading…lol

    1. sorry im being retarded ur right lol..
      i was thinking in different terms..if i open 1 lot on CFD (£10pp) with 10point Stoploss i need 10*10+(10*5) = 150 cash in my account.

  85. Well guys & girls always post my trade up when I can be bothered like yesterday am now in a good profit but believe am well down on the year, but very true is some right arsehole on here now, I started using this forum to learn more as to improve my trading now.
    Some great posting on here Ray one of my fav and I have always read his post Jay use to post on here but have not seen him in a while.
    Going to try trading just share next year indice are just too hard these days.

  86. I got stopped out at £210 profit…why didn’t I pick up on this earlier…if you are trading at £250pp then that means Sarj set his stop at less than 1 point…1 point is £250 for Sarj…who would set a stop of 1??? Anyway….let’s carry on with the cross-examination…NO platform lets you set a stop loss of just 1…I think IG is 7 points…other providers ditto…so ladies and gentleman case closed.. obvious conclusion…Got to go just heard the dogs barking in the garden and saw out the window Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus Rex eating my cannabis plants in the greenhouse….I need those plants to meet margin calls!!!! Nice weekend all 🙂

    1. Actually Ray, I took that as he set his trade, it went into profit, he altered his stop so he would not be at a lose. Simple. I do all the time now.
      you can not do a 1 point stop to start with.

      1. Hi Flash, read you comment, makes sense , BUT subject to the PROVISO of minimum stop loss distance levels…7 pts on FTSE in normal hrs, otherwise to profit by 1 point or 2 points etc, it has to be CLOSED MANUALLY!! Detailed explanation below.

  87. The old pound per pip monster rears it’s head again today. Yawn. I went long after the NFP spike. A good day as I had my long from 6485 too (nice one Nick) £4 a point btw, enough for a couple of beers and some change for the bus home. Will go long on any pullback next week too. Hope everybody had a good day.

  88. Badly worded…to quote Sarj…”I got stopped out at £210 profit”…i.e..he got stopped out..not me..

  89. Good chart today Nick mate…well done…passed even the 6556 10 day Bianca channel 🙂 May short FTSE next week if equities are lacklustre at 6560/70 or so level

      1. Hi Nelly mate, nice to hear from you…long time 🙂 Hope things are going well for you. Sorry for the rant below, Dola is back! 😉

  90. Lol I missed out on the raging, oh we’ll in good spirits again +30 pips holding on till the year end. I’m guessing the bears got killed, shoe is on the other foot.
    Noticed we got a new dola, heck it could be still him just under another name…
    Enjoy the weekend all

    1. Ahwab i guess u made profit. I remember sayingnu had long avg open like 6552
      .
      but didnt u say may be pullbacks at 6600 ? U still with the view or thinkin markets bullish now?
      For now im still think bears are in control ;S … but getting a bit itchy on that view

  91. Just finished reading through the comments section, highly entertaining as always. As we suggested last week the logical thing is to post when you make a trade, your reason why and your target (and stop loss if you use it). That keeps it nice and simple.

    ‘Night all

  92. Hey folks…. made £264,000 GRAND GBP on the spike on the DOW… and yeah that’s at £1000 a point. Can any of you losers beat that? Thought not 😉

        1. Nelly, he has lost his abacus, he will get back to you regards your margin/leverage question, when he finds it somewhere under his bed!! 🙂

    2. will you be shorting down again need to be quick 1.64020 limit 1.6420 euro usd spiked 25 points at close friday eve can be seen on daily chart ……… might be long spike down sunday evening

  93. My analysis for current position is that i see fridays jump as the big guns selling their longs off to retail buyers and so pop is the prelude to a big drop once the retailers realize there are no buyers higher…

  94. Al, isn’t that more opinion than analysis? You could equally say the institutions booked profits ahead of year end in the face of a little uncertainty. Now the numbers are out and it looks like economic growth really can replace QE, they’re back in again for the Santa rally. I have no idea whether either scenario is true but what’s important imo is the bounce off 200 MA plus good economic growth US and UK. So my money’s on the latter (from 6529 post NFP yesterday) with a tight 50pt trailing stop in case Im wrong :-). Will add longs with 2 closing higher lows (ie candlesticks) next week. Or else Ill be selling shorts for Xmas Haha.

  95. Yep just my opinion…just after other opinions like Des’s thanks des.
    Its all a matter of probabilities and discipline to be profitable in this game…

  97. Over a long run luck probably does not come into it. Over say 200 trades discipline and following probable setups is far more important. Luck is it just falling in your 60 of that 60:40 probability…!

  99. I guess that automated chain reactions to the coincidence last Friday 6 December of substantial Fed asset purchases and ostensibly favourable economic data caused the huge fluctuations by the S&P 500 and Dow which occurred within fractions of a second on release of the economic data. My impression was that capitalising on the phenomenon would have required electronic responses and the deployment of huge funds. (Congratulations though to ‘High Dollar’ – his cunning, assurance and fleetness of finger must have been wondrous!) I tend to agree with Ray that the planned concurrence of causal factors smacks of manipulation of the markets for the benefit of corporate players.
    The FTSE didn’t oscillate proportionately, and the drama caused no more than a 50 point surge against the sharpened decline of the index starting Monday 2 December. The question in my mind now is whether or not the latter spike marks the termination of the down-channel dating from late October. In favour of the possibility that it does, the FTSE is close to the lower bound of the longer-term, gently rising, ϵ-channel taken from early last July – some rebound now is at least a reasonable possibility in my view. Also, moving to the 1-hr. chart, the FTSE began to pull out of decline on Thursday 5 December. The uptrend which then emerged in the course of Friday I see as sustainable in the short term. So I am leaning towards looking for moderate upside next week, say, taking a stab, 6650 ±50 points by Friday 13 December.

  101. For what it’s worth the FTSE is showing one indicator lol 🙂 on the daily chart to go LONG, just one indicator mind you. Possibly two indicators since there does seem to be a little inking of a change of direction of the FTSE. As always the problem is spotting these things before it is too late. A possible hint of a change of direction in the DAX and CAC too. No really strong indications on either the FTSE, DAX and CAC though… but as always it is hard to tell. 🙂 Could go either way… lol 🙂

  102. The FTSE seems to be spot on a trend line on the bottom channel from 22/06/13, 09/10/13 and 06/12/13 areas. Interesting… hmm 🙂

  105. And those Bollinger Bands add more water to the tea-leaves too.. 🙂 But just let’s wait and see, not point in jumping to hasty predictions lol 🙂 The FTSE has a nasty habit of catching us off guard as it wrong foots us left of field lol 🙂

  108. RoyalMail set to join #FTSE 100, hmmmm 6660-6680 in 2-3 days only looking at last uptrend

  109. Hi Sarj

    I don’t think Flash is endorsing your £250pp trade strategy and the highly likely fictitious trade you posted from 6470 and a further top up from 6500 to the 6575 area on Friday. 6580 target.

    Flash is commenting on a collateral issue, i.e., regards the possibility of placing a 1 pip stop on the FTSE and making a 1 pip profit in it via a stop loss and NOT by manually closing it.

    Unfortunately, it seems Flash didn’t read my whole comment as I go on to comment that it is NOT possible to place a 1 point stop on the FTSE or obviously either be STOPPED OUT on a 1 point ftse stop , irrespective if it moves into profit and the stop is adjusted.

    What Flash assumes is that your trade went into profit and you moved your stop along. You CAN do that but you CANNOT be stopped out on 1 or 2 points from your entry level…too close!!! You can move your stop along when your trade goes into profit, subject to the minimum distance (7 pts normal hrs) but not when you are dealing with less than the MINIMUM stop loss distance levels, in such circumstances if your trade goes into profit the trade has to be closesd MANUALLY to lock in the 1 or 2 point profit, NOT by a stop loss as the platform does not allow it!!

    So IMPOSSIBLE!!!

    What Flash probably assumes is that you closed the trade MANUALLY when it went into profit by 2 pips (£250). It cannot be done via a stop loss.6517 enter..closed 6519 at £250pp.

    Work it out. You allegedly enter trade at 6517 at £250pp. You post on Tuesday 3rd December in the evening that you expect a 70-100 point pip bounce. Fine no problem.

    You post on Friday that you took profit of £250 AFTER being stopped out!!! So £250 equates to JUST 1 point profit for you..6519 close.

    Remember you are alleging that you are trading at £250pp. So to summarise you enter at 6517. Straight away you are 1 point down and your fictitious account shows minus £250.The spread on IG and most platforms is 1 during normal hours (out of hrs increased spread does not change the explanation or argument). At 6518 you break even..1 point. At 6519, 2 points, you make the alleged £250 AFTER being stopped out.

    Now think about it…the minimum stop level on most accounts is 7 points…so at your alleged entry of 6517, the minimum stop level is 7 points away at 6510. So how can you get stopped out after a 2 point up move and hence profit of £250???

    You can alter your stop manually/trailing etc, but it has always got to be a minimum of 7 points away. So say ftse now moves 1 point from your alleged entry of 6517 to 6518, your -£250 now becomes breakeven, you can NOW move along your stop. BUT remember it HAS to be a minimum of 7 points away.So now the stop is at 6511. Still no profit at 6518, a 1 point up move you are at break-even.

    Ftse moves another point up to 6519. Net 2 points. Now Sarj you are allegedly in profit by £250. But…the stop loss has now moved to 6512…again 7 points away.

    So it is impossible for you to get stopped out now as the stop has to be at a minimum of 6512..7 points away. You are now indeed allegedly at a profit of £250…and you say you took it after being stopped out.

    As I have just illustrated that is impossible, what you can do is to close the position manually with your alleged HUGE GAIN of just 1 point profit of £250…remember you are allegedly trading at £250pp.

    For someone to be expecting a 70 to 100 point rise from 6517, it is nonsense to believe you closed the alleged position after just a 2 point move of just £250 when you were clearly expecting between £17.5k profit and £25k profit. Why take just £250…lol…nonsense!!!

    Also as I articulated on Friday when the FTSE fell from your 6517 area it hit a low of around 6460, at £250pp you needed an account balance of a minimum of £14.25k for this 57 point drop. Now add the margin of trading at £250pp. That equates to £6.25k. So net capital you needed to have is £20.5k in monopoly money. Did you have rhe required minimum £20.5k at the material time last week?

    I doubt it. As I indicated on Friday you probably lost your shirt, or failing that, got stopped out after a conservative 30 to 40 points, some £7.5k to £10k loss.

    No disrespect, but I occasionally see such outlandish claims, always unsubstantiated, and after the fact, and like many have said, if you are a big player and have made some 100 points from the rise from your alleged entry of 6470 to 6577 @£250pp, in excess of £25k profit in a day or so, what on earth are you doing on this forum Dola??? You back again masquerading as Sarj?? Lol

    Go join the circus as a clown you will make a lot more money than trading …lol… 🙂

  110. Sorry a bit long and repetitive, went for a meal break and came back and was too lazy to read it and edit it, but still makes a lot more sense then Sarj’s ‘alleged’ trade 🙂

  112. Anybody else wants to talk nonsense about their super fictitious trades , do so, I am not going to challenge you. As White said above, we need to learn to filter the noise. I cannot be asked to waste my time arguing silly points, it’s stressful enough to trade, without this crap!!

  113. Send me ur email ray. Quite happy to send u a screen shot!
    For some one who doesn’t believe …. U wrote a really long post!

    1. Funny how you cannot explain any of what I said. Ring up IG, or any other provider, they will corroborate what I have just said. Rang them up at about 1 am mate. They said same thing.

      Don’t need your manufactured screen shots etc, or what someone else did last time, posted a profit statement of his alleged £30k profit, but I guessed at the time he had HEDGED it with ANOTHER provider. Example, Long £1000pp ftse on IG platform, but short £1000 pp on ftse on CMC markets platform!!

      Sorry Sarj been around long enough in this game to smell a rat! You explain to me how YOU GOT STOPPED OUT at 2 pips at 6519 with £250pp when the MINIMUM DISTANCE for a stop is 7 points and you entered at 6517 allegedly. You answer me that and I promise to have the Satute of Liberty shipped to your door by this Xmas!! 🙂

      1. The only plausible way for you to profit from a 2 point move in the ftse to get your £250 PROFIT, from 6517 entry, close 6519 at £250pp is to CLOSE IT MANUALLY, NOT BY A STOP LOSS!!

  114. LOL… just saw IG platform ..FTSE touched high of 6593 earlier on opening..lol..pure stop hunting..Nick had resistance at around 6550 I think, so I agree with him there 100%. The 40+ points from there to 6593 by market makers is pure EVIL!!

  116. Watch this space…screenshot of Sarj/Dol’s DEMO ACCOUNT! Lol…doubt If I will be able to be up at 7am…oh well afternoon session now when US opens…hoping to trade ftse today…getting up now at 12pm!! 🙂

  117. Bought at 6517. It rose by about 10 points. I put my stop loss at 6518 to protect against ANY losses
    If market falls… I make £250 minus commission.
    Not rocket science
    I don’t use ig. I use barclays. Less commission !
    Still happy to send screen shot if actual account for your viewing so you can stop slandering!
    Grow up!
    Flash… I know u don’t agree with my points per….. ( it’s all relative) but am a speAking Dutch?

  118. Unfortunately it’s 7am
    I have to get up for work!
    I have two babies… Hence why I’m up in the middle of the night….. Just a normal, very fortunate hard working guy with dignity!

  119. This is why £pp should not be on here. It’s all relative and not really relevant to the index itself. Good luck all. I am still at b/e long at 6551. Down on a couple of shares though.

  120. Sarj mate why on earth do you need to get up for work at 7am for work when you can make some £25k in a day…as you clearly can?

    Also, the main point is still the fact that you got your call WRONG!!! You called a 70-100 point rise from your entry at 6517…went lower by some 57 points before it hit 6593…as I explained above you needed some £20k capital to hold your position for this drop or if you had a conservative stop loss of say 30 or 40 points, you got stopped out with a £7.5k to £10k loss.

    Also why on earth were you advocating going going long from 6517, your entry level, with supreme confidence of a 70 to 100 pip rally at £250pp, when you were clearly wrong and you had ABSOLUTELY NO
    CONFIDENCE in your OWN trade as you exited the trade with just 1 pip profit of £250…i.e. you closed it at just 6519, instead of making your predicted £17.5k to £25k profit on your 70-100 point predicted rally.

    If I followed your prediction and traded at £250pp I would now have needed to re-mortgage my house…no problem in being wrong.. everyone can handle a drop of sime 57 points as in this case, but NOT at £250. Do the math!

  122. Sorry forgot to mention..anybody can send a screenshot of their trade…but you will NOT know whether or NOT it has been HEDGED!! Example…go long at £250pp on IG platform…but hedge it by going short on CMC Markers platform!!! Then you can show your screenshot or even post up the profit and loss account!! Good scam for those who want to show off to their mates etc.
    Simples…:-)

  123. Sorry Raymond, why on earth would anyone be jealous of ‘ghost’ trades that don’t exist?? Like I said Sarj was the one who vanished after posting his super £250pp trade at 6517 and predicting a 70-100 point rally from there…instead we FIRST dropped 57 points…so at £250 pp we all want to know how he survived?? So why come on and brag such nonsense?

    He does not reply when the 57 point dip happened..and instead posts when we have the 100 point rally to say to ME…”Ray..told you so…Like I predicted”…so Raymond…don’t blame me…blame him for his nonsense and BS.. and as for you saying I am jealous…looks like you share some similarities with Sarj…you two should hook up and share trading ideas on your DUMMY accounts…what an IDIOT you are as well Raymond!!! No common sense or understanding as to the issue of the 57 point drop I explained above…if you post next time…switch your bloody brain on first before you make silly baseless accusations!! Plonker!!!

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