Bit late today, 6748, 6720 support, 6790 6805 resistance

Hi all, This is just a quick email for the Tuesday session. Monday saw the 6750 level hold, so the long trade took after all, despite me thinking that it wouldn’t get that low, but failed to quite reach the target of the daily pivot at 6793. Some closed early of course at +20 or so judging from the emails. A further drop back then another rise shows there is still a bit of bull around. A lot hinges on Iraq at the moment.

Delighted to announce the birth of baby girl at 9pm Monday, as such I am a bit out of sync with the emails etc. Should be back to a normal morning email on Wednesday at the normal time of 7am. Just writing this quickly so you have some levels to look for on Tuesday.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as a decline in telecommunication shares countered gains by health-care firms.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) was little changed at 143.71 as of 11:26 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about four shares rising for every three that fell. Federal Reserve policy makers start a two-day policy meeting today after data yesterday showed American manufacturing is expanding.

“There was some positive data out of the U.S.,” said Stan Shamu, a Melbourne-based markets strategist at IG Ltd. “However, investors seem to be looking ahead to the Fed meeting.”

The Asia-Pacific measure last week touched the highest level since June 2008 amid improving U.S. economic data and indications Chinese growth is stabilizing.

Fed Stimulus
The Fed will this week reduce its stimulatory asset-purchase program by $10 billion for a fifth straight month, to $35 billion, according to the median of 43 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Analysts predict data today will show U.S. consumer-price growth held at 2 percent in May from a year earlier, while the number of new homes started probably dropped to a 1.03 million annualized rate from 1.07 million in April.

The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its economic growth forecast for the U.S. in 2014. The IMF now sees expansion of 2 percent, down from an April estimate of 2.8 percent, while it left its 2015 prediction unchanged at 3 percent. The lender said it doesn’t expect the U.S. will see full employment until the end of 2017, amid low inflation.

Asian shares dropped the past three days amid concern escalating violence in Iraqwill push oil prices higher and increase company costs. That left the Asia-Pacific gauge trading at 13.2 times estimated earnings at its last close compared with 16.4 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 15.4 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.1 percent today. The gauge rose 0.1 percent yesterday as corporate deals and better-than-forecast growth in American manufacturing overshadowed escalating tension in Iraq.

FTSE Outlook
We are slightly above the daily pivot as I write this, which is at 6760, so there is a slight bullish trend. The bulls need to break 6791 which should see 6807 and possibly 6834. The bears will need to break 6748 (yesterdays low), which bring the bounce area at around 6720 into play. I have put 4 trades below, 2 longs, 2 short off various levels,t he idea being that i expect these levels to hold (and hence trade entries) on initial touches. The Raffs are heading down but the channel bottoms have held so far., and the US in terms of the S&P is still hanging on!

We have the top of the FTSE 30 minute channel at 6788/6790 as well.

49 Comments

  1. Congratulations Nick…great news!
    FTSE is heading lower..to perhaps at least 6650…certainly over the next few weeks. Today would be good to test 6720…..

  2. Just a tadge more on the FTSE >=6775 & I’ll be going short….

    ….
    Order filled as I wrote this Short 6775

      1. Senu – My signal was at 16806 (3:05 pm) – (at 16784 now) I’m assuming this is a reactionary retracement from 16757 – I’ll post on here if I get a new price/action.

  3. How much will it drop though hugh? Also being a divi day today there must be a big sell off in the morning surely?

    1. Belly – I don’t know how much it will drop.
      My trades that I’ve been doing lately are small point trades 5-20 points.
      Once I’m in on a trade and as soon as there is “room” – my stops go in and then take it from there.

  4. Same as that here. However since lunch it hasn’t gone too well for me. Sat in a short at the moment at -4.

    1. What you’ve got a short at 6770 ish ??
      nothin wrong with that is there …give it some time
      it will come right …
      I’d rather be Short at 6770 – than lower down !
      I try to trade with the minimum amount of risk
      E.g Short 6770 – Stops 6780 (or hedge out to the upside to 6800)
      Not a big fan of this as it can get messy ..!

      Just looking at the daily chart –
      Resistance over the the last three days has been 6780.
      ( Note : Must watch 6780 – short covering and all that stuff)
      There are also long candlestick wicks showing everytime it moves lower.
      I’m assuming this might show support around the lower levels.

  5. The divi wasn’t even 2 points was it? Fearful long here nearly got stopped this afternoon saved by 3 points!

        1. I think going to bet in a long tomorrow morning at the lows, possible the close of todays level at 6766

  6. Morning all. Anybody trading Ftse as yet? Senu, Hugh and Marco and game plans for today?

    1. Belly – For me – it’s likely to be a Short – maybe 6800 if it goes there.
      (I’m not altogether sure if this is the right stance !)
      Looks pretty quiet. MPC Mins at 9:30..
      I’ll post if anything pops up but I’m going to be in and out today.

  7. FTSE: Looking at 30 mins Chart.
    6800 – Could be the inflection point of Support / Resistance. (4th/5th/13th June).
    Was Support – now resistance.
    Trend line running down from June 11th & June 12th – today 8803.
    Finally RSI on my chart @73 .
    Might all indicate a line in the sand.
    Nick – will probably add – there are some Pro Realtime Lines here
    S/R + Trend Lines at 6813

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