6793, 6810 resistance, 6750, 6730 support

I am writing this on Sunday night so it will be a slightly abridged version as we are obviously still closed as I write. I am out all day on Monday.

As expected, Friday was slightly bearish as the fear over Iraq and Ukraine (once again) took hold, the US being more bearish though. That said, having seen a 6760 low, the FTSE did climb back, as did the S&P from 1927.

Iraq looks at risk of either going into all out carnage, or will be squashed, especially if Iran start to side against ISIS. Still, all a bit of a mess!

FTSE Outlook
Calling Mondays action is a little tricky till we see where we open on Sunday night, but based on the pivot being at 6793 we will have that as initial resistance. That tallies with the coral on the 30 minute chart as well, though above that 6810 will be the next area – the top of the 30 minute channel.

Support wise, Fridays low of 6756 should hold, and we have the bottom of that 30 minute channel just below that at 6753. Of hope for the bulls was the S&P Raff channels holding on Friday, and a fairly decent’ish bounce off them. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel for today is 6771 – a level that we closed at on Friday; we are below the 20 day Bianca (6790). I wouldn’t be surprised if Monday is bullish.

They might well open Sunday night around 6790 at the pivot, an initial dip to 6770 for the bottom of the 10 day Bianca then a rise for the rest of the day. We shall see, these are my initial thoughts looking at it currently, though if I have time I will have a quick look in the morning after the Asia session has run for a bit.

 

110 Comments

  1. Morning gorgeous all. Anybody trading yet? I had been thinking of holding a short over the weekend. Wish I had now!!

  2. Wow the autocorrect on my phone decided to add a gorgeous in there for absolutely no reason atall

  5. No, over next few days might even visit pivot like Nick sais first but in my view that’s where we are heading you can see it about to fall over on the daily with 6700 and 200ma target.

  6. 60:40 says Dow pulls above channel lower boundary; ≈16700. FTSE in turn claws back above 6780.

  11. So it’s going to go up or down? Who would have thought it? Lol.
    Slow grind up IMO today.

  14. Don’t forget sideways Ahwab…..haha

    Anyway I think we are heading lower in the coming weeks due to a combination of lower summer volumes and increasing geo-political risk (Ukraine & Iraq – although neither should materially impact the market in the medium term as little threat of involvement by the West at present).

    6600 by the end of July still remains my target for now.

  17. To be honest – I can’t really see that these levels are compelling entries either way on a 5 min chart.
    Obviously there’s some resistance at 6775.. and some support at 6756 but the oscillators aren’t really supporting the case for a move in either direction.

  18. More like slow grind down than up, but who knows what will happen once yanks come on. I am going to take my money and run that’s me out.

  23. FTSE just crossed above lower bound of short-term ϵ-channel — so back inside the channel — just. 😉

  24. Senu – Curious if you have a trade plan ??
    Guess mine is – if it goes higher I short again !

  30. Dow/4 hrs. growth is in danger of peaking while close to zero — which would generate a substantial drop in the index — say, to ≈16500. In this case it would crash out of its current bullish channel, possibly introducing a negative incline through the second half of this month. (When Tony Blair comes out of the shadows, you know something is badly wrong, not unconnected with the past. 🙂 )

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/WallStreetDFB_zpsdd1d6962.png

    2. Good one Jim……certainly agrees with my view and not just about Mr B. A 2% drop here would take us to around 6600….quite feasible in the next few weeks.

  31. I feel that this little pull back is enough to propel us higher. The Dax shed over 200 points, ftse over 100. Now it can build again. I came out of my Dax short too early and jumped into my ftse long too soon too!

  47. Think it should default to GMT – but click on Timezone and put it at UTC and then everything should fall into place.

  60. Belly – We’ve obviously broken PP @6760 but hoping for +re-action to the action (i.e.+ 6763) . If it goes to 6747 app will probably put in another Long

  64. Mmmm got taken out at break even 6760 am looking to go short looks like it will go over

      1. Wasn’t sure I helped ! Often think that if you had a trading room with several people trading something different – life would be alot easier ! Just toying with the idea of stepping up my number of screens available. 2 At the moment – 4 would be better – 6 much better but it’s a little more complicated than that so I understand..

  69. FTSE : 5 mins. — Flat for past hour – waiting for a breakout. Tendency generally negative – price gradient turning negative now.

  71. Expecting Dow to fall back to pivot ≈ 16760 and FTSE to fall through S1 at around 6750.

    1. Jim, I remember you saying dow will fall 200 pts without disturbing current trend and it did. Is it time to climb back?

  77. Belly – I’m letting the news to be digested for a bit !

    (I’m Long and Short and will then decide which to close out one at the appropriate time)

  81. Hi Senu, Apologies for the delay in replying. It’s difficult to say whether the Dow is about to climb from this point. On the daily chart it’s a bit below the centre line of a short-term channel, so it could lose a bit more weight! My growth indicator is quite responsive and that is still pointing down. Also, LinReg 100 now has a negative gradient. I can’t say that I’m too confident about a fresh upswing right now.

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