Any more bull or does the dip start here?

Good morning. Fortunately the 6700 level held yesterday and the bulls managed to a rise to 6745 from there. I thought that 6720 was going to put up a bit more of a fight on the drop but didn’t seem to so the market probably wanted to take out some stops. For today, to push to the 6760 area mentioned yesterday we will need to break that 6745 high from yesterday. More woe on the UK high street yesterday with Barratts and Blockbuster going into administration again, though they have been on the ropes since 2008 to be honest. The latter has probably just been asset stripped since being purchased from administration in March.

Official figures today are expected to show the consumer price inflation rate down to a six-month low of 2.5pc, followed by another appreciable fall in unemployment on Wednesday.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, led by Japanese shares, as the yen weakened against all its major peers. Crude and gold declined, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched the highest level in seven weeks.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent as of 2:35 p.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index advanced 1.4 percent while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures gained 0.1 percent. The yen slid 0.4 percent to 99.56 per dollar while the Philippine peso weakened to the lowest in a month. Yields on 10-year U.S. sovereign debt touched 2.77 percent, the highest since Sept. 20. Gold lost 0.4 percent and silver headed for a three-month low, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3 percent.

Bond Yields

Treasury yields rose as trading resumed after a holiday. U.S. debt with maturities longer than 10 years has slid 11 percent this year, on track for the largest loss among 144 indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies, as stronger-than-expected economic data added to the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce asset purchases.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

I think there might still be a little fuel left in the tank for a push to the higher targets at 6759 and possibly 6790 mentioned yesterday but it feels like the tide is starting to turn a little bit more in the bears favour. The 10 day Bianca channel is heading down and with the channel top not too far above were we currently are at 6742, and with yesterday’s high at 6745 the bulls have a bit of a job on their hands to break that area. If they do then 6759 is likely to be hit. Looking across the pond, the S&P has/had resistance at 1773 which it hit yesterday and dipped from, although not a lot. 1778 is a more major resistance to watch. If the Dax is going to go for 9180, and the S&P 1778, then with any luck the FTSE will go for the 6759 as well. there is a plethora of news out this week which is going to affect markets and expected to paint an improving economic picture here in the UK. As markets look 6 months forward (so they say anyway) this current crop of data is mostly priced in and is the reason for the buoyant prices over the past 6 months. The question remains, is this the Santa Rally and we have had the dip when we saw 6645 last week or is there a dip still to come? Looking at the daily chart with the 10 day Raff at 6790, and the 10 day Bianca at 6742 I think we are starting to level off, though its only 6 weeks till Christmas so the bulls won’t have that long to rally if we do dip for a few weeks. That said, the 20 day Bianca is still rising and has support at 6695 so the bulls are not fighting a losing battle just yet.

So I am still expecting a little bit more bullishness, especially as they managed to fight back from the 6700 level yesterday, though be ready for the bears to suddenly appear.

92 Comments

  2. What worries me, that initial Nick’s chart was pointing for a rise to 6760 area but we were down all morning, even went below 6700 mark. Will the price reach now as high as 6760, that’s the question?

    1. i doubt it today but i think along with divi today it should at least test the overnight resistance at 6740 ish..possibly

  3. Well was too bullish for the off. Long at the 6697 area instead as that was the bottom of the Bianca channel, plus a bit of round number support. Target 6759, stop now at break even and some profit taken at 6719

  4. Think we are going to see a slow drift down now. A bit of a fight form the dow in the afternoon but this could be the top (roughly) from now till 20th Nov – think we will revisit 6692 soon and dow to open around 15725 went long this morning and am out short 6715 in ftse and 15757 in dow

  5. Looking at FTSE/daily, I’m still impressed that most of Friday’s recovery has been kept; a prerequisite for upward progress I think. I doubt that a buy signal will appear though before 6750-60 is regained. The shorter timeframes are still dominated by down-trending channels. Again, 6750+ appears to be necessary to begin to change this state of affairs. Right now, the 5 mins. channel is offering meagre support.

    1. The way I see it, we are in down channel. Some time ago it was the 6780 level to watch. We are now at 6750 looking for upside.

  6. Don’t forget today is dividend day, and its sizable 11.6 points so those greedy city traders will want the free money. Don’t be surprise is FTSE ends up in positive territory just before the close!!

  7. I’m using plus500 for trading FTSE 100 – their instrument is called UK 100 and is around 15 points below the FTSE.

    Should I be using something else to trade FTSE?

    1. Did you search other FTSE products? Can you search at all?
      Is spread 1 point where you trade? If 1 point – what hours it’s allowed?
      I would find it confusing if I had other price than everybody else. Sometimes they have different price and spread on June, May etc. contracts.

      1. Can trade until 8pm.

        They charge £1.80 per 200 contracts with an additional charge of around £2.40 per 200 contracts if I want to keep overnight.

        It was recommended by a friend who is not very active, I have not looked at other options.

        It is confusing when I read sites like this, I have to adjust my position accordingly.

        1. Do they charge it no matter how big your stake is? Seems it’s quite cheep. Do you get dividends on Tuesdays?
          I was thinking to join this platform when I was looking to change from CityIndex but had found another one… so I was asking cos I was interested.

        2. Yes i bet. Maybe thats CFDs you are looking at too? Spreadbetting on IG is what I use – thats whose figures i use too

          1. Yes I use Plus500 and follow Nick’s predictions. there is a diference from 15 to 25 points for actual FTSE and the value shown by UK100 in Plus500. UK100 is index but they are decoding the actual FTSE value.

  9. Senu out if interest where are u looking to get out? Still short myself same level no doubt if i actually book a profit it will break 6700 so was just wondering thansk

    1. I will look for 8-10 pts for all trades I enter. Here, I will decide around 05-08 range (if it goes.. haha) whether to hold futher.

  10. Hey everybody, hope you`re all doing well.
    Personally, I think there is a bearish sentiment creeping in, placed short @ 6730 yesterday to get in earlier, as I think it will be one of those drops that you either in on it or its already too late as it I reckon it will be a quick dip before the rise, strong resistance @ 6550/6600.

  11. yep got out 05 which i could have done 3 times today on my original short !! does bounce or does it go through ….

  16. How does ex-dividend works? I am spread betting with interTrader, and currently Ive got a buy positon on the ftse 100 @ 6700.

    1. If you look the IP address then you will know that there is two guys called David… so, no h is not talking to himself

  21. Then after 16:30, you’ll get approx £110 credited to your account …. But your position will be £110 worse off

  24. It was a joke lol Adam…just a bit of lightheartedness as everyone’s on edge. Rise till 4,30 then a dip overnight and the rest of the week

    1. Just a thought… I would personally be careful of an overnight rally and look to sell in the AM when the divi buyers will sell out. Could see a spike up first thing tomorrow morning as everyone closes Long positions…

      Might be worth laying in a short later this evening and then after 8am as well… My short term target is bearish and looking at 6575 area.

  25. the news are sooo mixed..market not going anywhere!!! how the hell can anyone trade in this enviroment (or should the question be why the hell can i not make sense at all lol). I’ve been on the sideline every now n then and im down a bit of money this month.

  26. .. its called fear, the fear of buying and the fear of selling, perhaps a hint of why we must all be careful this market could tip anytime and theres a whiff of something out there 🙂 more than just bullshit

    1. thats the thing, years back when i was trading i was losing money….because i had no fear lol. so i guess its good i developed fear, since then i have been profitable.

  28. hold on to your hats! This will take off in the last ten minutes as dividend hunters buy the market. Then I think we will have one almighty fall before the Santa claus rally.

  29. Just as I thought, the morons drag the market up. Its just show you what the game is all about. Forget the fundamentals, trends, analysis…. those boys out there have enough money on a daily basis to move the market the way they want!!….there is no investors, its just talk to get the small guy in and give him run for his money. They think that all those people who lost money in the last financial meltdown suddenly 3 years later got some printers and started to print like Ben does…lol

  30. I love this guys looking for dividends.
    Cannot figure out there strategy, unless you sold before ex-

    1. tbh all this dividends normally puts me off trading, it’s like you have to be long even if you want to be short. Unless you are not in a strong winning long position I think there’s no points to leave your losing trade running just for the sake of the dividends.

  32. So what now. Down for the rest of the afternoon / evening?

    why has the DOW gone in to freefall. have i missed something?

    Thanks Nick

  34. still short dow at 15786 and now fste at 6715 any move higher in the dow from now 15727 will continue to short agree with Ahwab. Need to sit on my hands for a week.

  35. 15800, DOWs been waiting to drop, it was only because the big boys kept it up last week that it didn’t decline like the ftse. However now it will drop after failing to break 15800 again, just go short and sit on it and you’ll get your money

      1. this time I book my profits. No more bullshit with this markets, that have bipolar problems

  40. 6600, will be the point where I take 75%, then next target at the 6550 area for the remainder. So as to free up resources to buy the dip for the inevitable rally

      1. A bit desperate now? I was under the impression you held positions long term, but at least you got out with some good pips. I think as you said we will see the drop into tomorrow.
        Good luck, will you be waiting to buy the dip or you going short?

        1. Just like to say Ahwab you seem to be a very disciplined, patient trader. I like your style. I myself was short since friday from 6725, but got sucked into the long pressure and changed my stance. I should have remained patient as now that seems like a great position to be in. Patience always seems to pay off. Something which needs to be vitally learned.

          1. Well, experience is the best teacher…I try not to get swayed by movements of 10-15 points, and go for a medium term trade that I know I will get 9 times out of 10. So sticking with my targets.
            Gl, we`ll see what happens, the daily looks very promising, and as PMS said looking to fill that empty space below, probably see 6650ish, hopefully =)

        2. Am short on ftse, probably hold on till end of the week. Tomorrow shall short on DOW too and hold on, really need to make some money on DOW, every time am getting stopped out 🙁

        3. As I already said some time ago. I made a swing trade in FTSE for the first time in October when I saw a unique opportunity of a big move.
          I’m a bull trader. Shorting is not my type.

          I will buy the dips, for sure

          1. bull trader = bull market is where we are.
            If a bear market appears I have 2 options:
            1st- sidelines
            2nd-wait for the dip to buy, usually do not take to much time as a bull market (sell is more extreme and fast than a buy)

  42. Well said White, Ahwab all though i feel PMS frustration. We were talking at the w/e about booking a profit and its frustrating to see the swings in the p/l get eaten away. when you look for the medium term you have to be prepared for that but for the past couple of weeks i have had so much p/l evaporate because i wanted the 200 point move rather than take the money and start again. the dow today went down to 708 or near abouts a few times and you could re positioned at 740 and higher .. and be sitting on a nice profit and your original position. I saw 9k go today and loaded and stayed at averaged of 746 and sit offside now a hefty sum. That alone annoys me … my fault and yes discipline another sleepless night awaits! Lets hope it does drop tomorrow, is anyone thinking it will rise tonight ?

  43. The bears have a lot to do, to take this market down.
    Continues to be the “buy the dip” rule.
    6500 and 6580 and 6600 are excellent numbers. A dream for a bull trader if it catches one.
    But I still do not see them.
    Maybe tomorrow, or after…or whatever. I do not give a shit, I will buy the best opportunities the markets have to offer and exit at least 10 points after.
    If another opportunity like of the October appears I will be there and will swing it, but I think is one in a million.

    For now the prices are in a consolidation after a strong uptrend.
    And if anyone looks at a chart you will know what I’m talking about.
    A bullish setup is taking place.
    If this is for real or not I do not know, but is there to be confirmed or not

  44. And as I said earlier more than once, FTSE is the market that is more bearish than the others.
    Every time we have some correction in the other markets, FTSE will “double it”.
    Right now if you look at the crossover EMAS in the 4hourly chart you will see that FTSE is the only one, more bearish.

    EMAS from DOW are still intact in 4hourly chart since early October.
    On the other hand, FTSE broke them last week.

  46. Yes, but expect it to be a bumpy ride, better to keep a few positions short rather than
    Buying and selling

    1. Yep, I am short from 6710. Not the greatest position but looking for 6650 and lower. If we break higher than 6710, I will re-enter a higher short. bears ftw lol

  51. ahwab agreed i got out my position with a small profit after seeing all p/l eaten getting sick of it. so will short at higher levels. DOW is just well bid at the moment but when its drops it will drop ! much like it did last thursday i imagine.

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