16th February 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7278 7271 7268 7246 7160 7155
FTSE 100 Resistance 7334 7335 7355 7358 7365 7372
Good morning. I thought that we might have had a slightly bigger rise yesterday afternoon with that large divi, but instead the 7312 resistance level that we had held and the bulls were not able to break that. Still managed 24 points off the 7280 level though so not a bad rise. Maybe that 7313 level was stronger than I thought! If they were able to break it today though then the top of both the Bianca channels is at 7334 today. Futures prices rallied after the bell yesterday, regaining the 28 point divi drop to retest the 7297 level overnight.
However, there has been a bit of weakness in Asian markets overnight which has brought the S&P futures off their 2354 high overnight. Strong trending day on the S&P again yesterday however at some point (maybe today?) things are going to get a bit toppy, though granted at the moment its a pretty bullish one way street we are on! Will be painful for the swing traders who have probably been shorting this as we have risen, though of some consolation is that the FTSE rise hasn’t been nearly as exuberant as the US one!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

We have some key US data out this afternoon which traders will be watching to give an idea of the likelihood of a March interest rate rise. We also have the ECB at 12:30 with their monetary policy meeting minutes.
The GBPUSD rate continues to hover around the 12500 area and that is what is tempering the FTSE rises at the moment and why its been unable to really push higher following in the US footsteps.
We have both the Bianca channels at 7335 today as initial resistance, with the recent high at 7355 above that. I think we might just overshoot that a little though if we were to get that high and it actually opens up a decent swing short area at around the 7365 level where we have the top of the 20 day Raff and also S3 for today. However, the FTSE has been a bit lacklustre with its rises so may struggle to get that high.
For support we have the bottom of the 10 day channel at 7278 and just above the level we bounced from yesterday after the divi was applied. Prior to that we have the daily pivot at 7291 as well, not much below where we are as I am writing this, and a positive looking chart to start things off today.
The key will be for the bulls to break 7313 – we might well get a double top reaction there first thing this morning and a drop back down, as its still a resistance level of note. It is also R1 for today.
So, for today the levels I am watching at 7278 for support, 7313 and 7365 for resistance.
Morning chaps….I went short at 93.2 and nervously exited for 2.1 points….waited I’m now long from 80.2….
Make that long from 79 now…..
It’s 78.1 now on Nicks support level…..let’s see….
I will have a bit more at 66
Break even now 76.6……
Short cable at 1.2508
Increased cable short at 13 and 14
Come on 7300 …..
Long from combined 72.2 now
hello all, still short and have kept adding to my SP and DAX positions, pretty much behind the sofa at the moment and rather hoping this is going to turn next week or so. We could do with a war for example (and so could trump!) or just straight impeachment of that lot over in the states.
At least 7313 got a reaction yesterday. I was starting to think there were no bears left!
FTSE is totally dysfunctional now anyway with brexit’s effect on sterling. I think we will see extreems on the ftse and it won’t follow other markets. So I’m not doing that one for a while I think
I look at Dax and see short and long at the same time. Short to 730 and long to 790. Don’t know which one will come first.
I think 90 first
This short on Dax was a tedious task today. On FTSE those 10 points went down nicely, but on Dax it decided to pop up to 11775 first, away from my 11766 entry. Stop was on 82 so I could have been burnt. Had half but it came back to b/e so I got the half. I think it’s Nick’s long arrow spooking them LOL. But generally because bulls are too strong and we are having a retrace to yesterday’s afternoon rise.
EMA are saying to me short short short, but do we have short, no of course.
I think 117550-th are quite a strong support here on dax from 14th Feb. so it’s defending it. I am actually thinking of long now.
I think it was a 61.8% retrace on dax for yesterday’s rise.
Oh, don’t tell me I missed short on Dax.
Hey all.
I’m sat on my hands today so far… I don’t see any edge yet for me.
Let’s see what the 1:30 data brings.
Hi Dutch, good to see you back around. You’ve been missed. Got any targets for your S&P & DAX shorts ? Used to follow your trades closely on Nick’s other site.
hello MLH, just don’t have the time at the moment to join in on nick’s member platform and it was getting a bit too quiet for my liking (sorry nick!). Anyway, target was and is 2150 on SP and 10k on the Dax, may sound a bit silly and day by day I’m struggling to justify these targets. But I’m trying to play the long game in this market now as short term or day trading is way too risky and stressful right now and who needs that!
Its a lot more lively these days since the Christmas lull.
Dutch, agreed about the short term stuff. I expected a bigger reaction at 2350 last night and was surprised we didn’t see a quick reversal. Looks like they’re just happy to keep buying it up. Very strange given the state of the daily charts !
I think it all has been genuine buying on the DOW and S&P, based on what I’m sure will be delivered a nice tax cut for businesses that sees 10% earnings added, so makes sense we add 10% to the market. But With valuations already high, a global economy that is not exactly on fire and mounting multiple geo economical and political issues, I can only see one long term route. We’ll see what happens on that. When I have a bit more time I’ll rejoin the members forum for some more daily nonsense!
and I don’t mean your analysis newsletters Nick of course, those are excellent!
🙂
We are very quiet on the other side, more than a few of the old names missing these days. Shame, hope we can get a few back when the market turns.
Looking forward to seeing you back Dutch , your insight is valuable. Had some amazing scalps when markets were a little less “one-way” ! Good luck with your trades in the meantime !
cheers mlh, you’re too kind. speak soon.
Out of my cable shorts starting at 2473 and finally out at 2478…… I saw 54 earlier but didn’t take it expecting lower…..still pleased though…
Nice work anstel
Thanks Dutch….
Out of my Ftse long at 84 for 11.8 pts…….
……….could have had 91 but I expected higher and missed the extra 7pts…
Never mind…it’s not an exact science is it :0)….
Good night all and good luck..