28 point dividend | FTSE 100 Resistance 7312 7334 | Support 7280 7261

15th February 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7285 7280 7263 7261 7258 7238
FTSE 100 Resistance 7309 7312 7321 7326 7334 7365

Good morning. After the initial spike down on the FTSE to 7252 and a test of the 10 day Bianca channel there, we bounced back up to the 7280 area and stayed there for most of the day in what was a pretty lacklustre day for the FTSE 100, with a slight drop to 7260 and bounce at the close. Today we have a large 28 point dividend to be applied so many were wary about going to big short ahead of that. We had the bull Monday and a sort of bear Tuesday pattern again this week, though the bulls definitely have the upper hand at the moment.

In Janet Yellen’s speech last night she said more interest-rate increases will be appropriate if the U.S. economy meets the central bank’s outlook of gradually rising inflation and tightening labor markets. Yellen’s semiannual report on monetary policy is her first since Donald Trump became president vowing to boost U.S. growth, which could push the Federal Open Market Committee to pick up the pace of rate hikes if such steps fan higher inflation. She reiterated that falling behind on inflation could harm to the economy and possible cut short the expansion. Yellen gave no indication of the timing of the next hike in her prepared remarks. Investors see about a 34 percent chance of an increase at the next meeting of the FOMC on March 14-15, up from about 30 percent before she spoke.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today we are pretty likely to see a rise towards the close as the divi hunters come in so going long around 15:00 this afternoon usually works out well as a way to benefit. You want to close before the bell though, especially if on IG which applies the divi at 16:30. Rather than try and get the divi itself you want to just get the rise before it.

Initially we have resistance at 7312 to start with and the bulls have just tested 7300 while I have been writing this. If we get a pop up to here then technically we should see a bit of a dip down, which I think will get to the daily pivot at 7280, but might dip to test the 10 day Bianca again at 7261. We have a few other supports there – S1 and the 200ema – so may hold that level as support.

If the bulls were able to break 7321 today then we should get a rise to the next are of interest which is 7365 though with the daily RSI back above 70 and the US markets still racing ahead I am thinking that we may well start to see some profit taking soon. Mind you, there was always the possibility of 22000 on the Dow for 2017, i just thought it might come later in the year!

So for today, fairly simple plan really, long off any initial dip in a similar pattern to yesterday.

23 Comments

  1. Morning all……I’m still running my Ftse long I started at 68.8 yday……and added to it…good luck all….

        1. That’s what I was thinking Nick, the divi is a carrot and it’s the exact same price action that happened after the US election….the Dow went up but Ftse didn’t follow ……but then it did…….it’s a good size now and I took some heat on it yday but I was thinking ahead….it seems to be a good call so far…

          1. Going to be interesting to see if it reacts at 7312 this morning. Could do with/Would like a dip down from there and then load the longs for later

  2. Indexes strong…needs to be under 7280 for weakness..
    Nick of you are looking for eek on the DOW are you expecting gold to hit 1000

    2. I think gold will hit 1500 this year though.

      I wouldn’t be surprised it we start seeing a dip on equities soon. Wont keep making record highs everyday….

    1. Had a short order at 7312 so it just missed. Its almost like they can see where the order is so just miss it…… been happening a bit too many times recently on the FTSE for my liking…… #DamnAlgos

      1. That’s amazing Nick,just been walking dog and back now it hit your 7312 on the Dot…..that’s really impressive…

  4. I stupidly shorted the Dow yesterday. Now long. Nothing to tell the computers to stop buying at the moment on wall st.

  6. Why at 4.30 it fell like a brick on FTSE? I am sitting calmly with my short on Dax and suddenly this.

  7. Out of my combined Ftse long at 7316.5 for 4.5K more to give but I’ve had enough…goodnight all….

  8. Jack of you were in cash ftse pre and post close they will have chopped it 20 odd points on the close for the divi I think. Don’t know about you guys but I always use the quarterlies. The interest charges were insane over Christmas when I went cash Dow.

Comments are closed.