6819 resistance, then 6835 and 6850; 6800 support

Good morning. Frustratingly it didn’t quite reach the short order at 6845, instead not managing to break the pivot before dropping to 6800. That level held though as if that breaks then there is most likely going to be a fall to 6700. Today is of course ECB news day, when we get the ‘big reveal’ of any stimulus and possible negative interest rates. Tomorrow we have NFP so these 2 days will see some action. ADP yesterdays was slightly below forecasts so could be a precursor for NFP also being slightly below.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses after better-than-forecast data on U.S. service industries and as investors await a European Central Bank policy decision.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.1 percent to 142.77 as of 11:14 a.m. in Hong Kong, having earlier gained 0.1 percent. Five shares dropped for every four that rose. The gauge closed June 3 at the highest since October, after rising the most last month since September amid optimism China will add stimulus to prop up growth.

“The U.S. economy isn’t shooting the lights out, but growth in the second half will be decent enough to justify the Fed winding back quantitative easing,” Tony Farnham, a Sydney-based strategist at Patersons Securities Ltd., said in a phone interview. “No one wants to bravely put on a large position ahead of the ECB decision today.”

Japan’s Topix index and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index (NZSE50FG) were little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.8 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index slid 0.2 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex index slipped 0.1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s Shanghai Composite both fell 0.2 percent.

U.S. Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today after the U.S. gauge closed yesterday at a record high. Service industries in the U.S. expanded at the fastest pace in nine months in May. A private report showed employment rose less than economists projected before the government releases monthly payrolls data tomorrow.

The Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book review of regional conditions that the world’s largest economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace last month. The Beige Book, released two weeks before policy makers meet, supported Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s view that the U.S. economy is rebounding from a 1 percent contraction in the first quarter caused largely by harsh winter weather.

The ECB may become the first major central bank to take interest rates negative today as President Mario Draghi seeks to ward off deflation in the euro area.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Damn frustrating sometimes – price goes so close to the short order and then just misses, then the long that did take failed. Anyway, 6800 held though the FTSE is definitely lagging the S&P which rose from the 1919 support area to hit the 1927 resistance. That and 1930 represent decent shorting areas.

If the FTSE breaks below 6800 then the bears are more than likely going to take it down to 6700. The key level today is where we are as i write this – right on the daily pivot at 6819, if the bulls can break that then 6832 (near the monthly pivot) and 6850 (weekly pivot) look possible, the latter being a great place to short.

Of course most of todays action is going to hinge on the ECB and what they announce. Prices usually rise in advance of such things but its been a bit lacklustre so is Draghi going to disappoint, though of course he is the one who said “we will do whatever it takes” a while back.

We do have the BoE rate decision at 12pm – expected to remain at 0.5%. Wont be too long before they put it up to temper the housing market though.

105 Comments

  2. hope everything that happens today means a further drop! im in slight profit but i need more monies!

  6. Nick has been spot on there is a lot of support at 6800. I really have no clue which way the ECB meet is going to take things, best to sit on the sidelines and not be greedy.

  9. Hey Nick…long time no see! How’s it going..congrats on your site…you’re doing a brill job…you’ve come a long way…well done!

  11. order cancelled…long at 01 after break out from triangle on 5 min…at B/E…limit order still active @ 18

  12. Will the Market go UP if ???
    the ECB Interest Rate Decision is more than 0.10%???

    Will the market go DOWN if ??
    the ECB Interest Rate Decisionis less than 0.10%?????

    Which way will the market go if it stays the same as expected 0.10% ?????

  14. Would have been nice to get filled on the lows…missed it by 3 points! That’s trading..limit order worked just fine…filled @ 18.

  15. On the hourly I have a projection upto 6865 but need confirmation to go long for that target..

  16. Will the Market go UP if ???
    the ECB Interest Rate Decision is more than 0.10%???Will the market go DOWN if ??
    the ECB Interest Rate Decisionis less than 0.10%?????
    Which way will the market go if it stays the same as expected 0.10% ?????

  17. anyone who says they know, is talking rubbish, i always try to sit out at high volatility, but then cash in when there is a definite movement. keep ur eyes peeled!

  18. I realise this is a FTSE trading site but do any of you guys trade other than FTSE?

      1. Nice, very strict trading. And..thats just the ftse lol. Well done!

        I so called this rise yesterday, looking to short 6840. Still not ruling out the possibility of 6900, whether it will be a slow rise and big spike.

  19. I’ll have a look at that Nick, this evening, whilst sipping a nice cup of tea..

  20. I also trade the DAX as well as currencies… mostly trading of 1 and 4 hour charts…but on many occasions the 5 and 15 min charts will give a nice shot term move…like the FTSE earlier…But following different products on all time frames gets exhausting…so try to mostly work off longer time frames…place the orders, stops and limits…so don’t have to sit in front of screen all day..!

  24. That’s enough for short term charts for me today…!
    Back to longer time frames on the currencies…

  25. Horrible for my short but added to my Dax and then sold on the spike down. What a great swing although I bet most missed the volatility

  26. Short USDJPY @ 10266…possible move down to 10237…stop above 10276…off the 30 min chart..

  35. closed that particular short for 18 pips. I`m out for the day, made more trades in one hour than in 3 months… gl all

  36. Lol bad maths on my part I currently use plus 500 because they had a lot of bonus offers however the prices are lower than actual. I’m currently looking to switch but not sure who to

    1. try finspreads or IG, IG preferably as finspreads tends to be laggy during volatile times, and they don`t offer DAX as a DFT

      1. Could have lost nothing if I just waited a few seconds longer. Had enough, was sitting since 9.30 nursing my short and it shoot up, what a shame.

        1. Just got those 9 quid back, I am out of here, if you make a break it feels wrong.
          I’ll tell you, it’s easy to look at the chart and see what trades you would have made then actually taking those trades.

      2. I was short 16730.5 I thought that was reasonably high, and here we go, it broke the top again. Glad I am out of this volatility nightmare.

  44. Definitely should have held my short. Anyone see this going lower or bouncing back?

    1. dow hit the 4 hour trend line and bounced…also USDJPY hit its target on 30 min chart…so to be safe went to B/E on dow short…

  46. I’m done for the day…only trade open is dow short..@ B/E…
    Good and safe trading all…

  48. Again…like a broken record… my mistake closing my position on SPX Friday before european and ukraine elections. Sold on strength.
    Saw that slope in 50ma turning again positive and my feeling was for the 1900 break, but I stupid preferred to close before weekend and not using a trail stop.
    Again…like a broken record…October should see a big drop as QE exits…unless very bad news, this markets will continue their uptrend.
    NOW, something new :
    Looking to short SPX, between today, tomorrow or begin of next week. Looking for levels above 1940. There has been no pausing and markets will need to rest.

    1. There is only one catch… need to pay attention for 4285 in Nasdaq. Shorting…again like a broken record… is not my expertise in a bull market

  50. Trust me to get a phone call when my trade that had sat behind profit for a few hours moves into profit. End the call it drops back below again

  51. Yeah I’m in a risky long that’s getting close to stopping out. (Tight stop) you?

  56. Well, I suspect that is not yet a good timing for short… Nasdaq is breaking 4285. Wanna see that close. If this breaks… I will short only at 1960-2000.
    Looking again to FTSE, which is still unattractive but looks more promising in the shorter term

  57. Just got in. I’m actually on holiday this week, but we have wi-fi and I’m allowed my toys 🙂 . Draghi’s blether caused a wobble, but 4-hr. DAX, S&P 500 and Dow are looking bullish at this point. Tuesday’s guess that the FTSE would test 6800 by today was accurate enough. 6800 just happens to coincide at this time with the lower boundary of the current short-term ϵ-channel. Given this, and the resilience noted above, I am inclined to favour 6800 as the ultimate support, for the moment — so, looking for a bounce back to 6850+. In the 4-hr. view this does require a turnaround in the growth profile — currently recovering a bit but still negative.

    1. AT this time… none. If the emas crossover at 4 hourly chart, I will think in a long position… if not…will wait for another big drop and see

  61. Expecting more of the same tomorrow dip and rise, loads of data tomorrow out for the US, worth scalping though have to see about adding to my mid term shorts.

    Yet again S&P making new highs lol.

  62. So we got volatility but without much direction! Haha. A good day for the scalpers. The rallies look a bit weak and I have a negative bias but tomorrow should give some direction as to whether we break 6930 before the summer or head down to 6600.
    Either way can’t take too much more of this boredom……zzzzzz.

    GLA.

  64. My goodness, I thought when I left it will drop like a stone, but it actually did Nick’s arrow on Dow, instead of making it on FTSE. LOL I am so glad that managed to close my short b/e

  66. The pace is still on the side of bulls. Let´s see tomorrow. Will have no time here…

  67. My new place will be 1961. That’s around the 161,80% expansion from the breakout

Comments are closed.