6753 support, 6775, 6805 resistance

Good morning, hope you had a good weekend. Friday played out as expected with the rise to 6775 so well done those that emailed to say you got on it.

No real massive financial news over the weekend; Juncker is now head of the EC despite Cameron’s objections; and worries over low interest rates and a housing bubble persist.

The FTSE is looking at opening right on the 6775 resistance level that we had from Friday, above this 6804 is the next level to watch. With the pivot support at 6753 we are going to have a tight range initially, which will break soon, probably to the downside over the summer.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Emerging-market stocks rose, with a benchmark gauge heading to its biggest quarterly advance since September 2012, while the yen gained and South Korea’s won hit an almost six-year high. Oil fell on speculation violence in Iraq won’t curb output from OPEC’s second-biggest producer.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.4 percent by 12:13 p.m. inTokyo, heading for a 5.6 percent gain since the end of March. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed, with the U.S. benchmark one trading day away from completing the longest stretch of quarterly gains in 16 years. The yen traded at a five-week high versus the dollar, which bought 1,011.55 won, the least since 2008. West Texas Intermediate crude oil lost 0.3 percent and Brent fell 0.2 percent.

A gauge of world equities is heading for a fifth straight monthly advance, the longest streak since 2007, after closing at a record on June 19. Sectarian fighting in Iraq hasn’t spread to the south, home to more than three-quarters of the nation’s oil production. Euro area inflation is due today, three weeks after the introduction of unprecedented stimulus and manufacturing and house sales figures are due in the U.S.

As regards oil prices, “we’ve already started to see the risk premium easing off,” Tom James, the Dubai-based managing director of Navitas Resources, said by phone yesterday, referring to oil. “Markets are seeing there’s been no blockage to exports, and that Saudi Arabia would likely supply any shortfall if they need to.”

The MSCI All Country World Index was little changed today, heading for a 1.6 percent increase this month. The emerging-markets gauge rose to 1,050.07, the highest since June 19, while a measure ofAsia-Pacific (MXAP) equities was little climbed 0.1 percent after rising the last seven weeks.

Hang Seng
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.3 percent and a gauge of Chinese shares in the city added 0.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent while South Korea’s Kospi index was 0.4 percent higher.

The Topix index lost 0.1 percent in Tokyo as the yen rose a fourth day, adding 0.1 percent to 101.28 per dollar, the weakest since May 21. The currency last week strengthened through the 200-day moving average versus the greenback, seen as a key technical barrier to further gains.

Brent slipped to $113.05 a barrel today, after losing 1.3 percent last week. The European benchmark is up 3.4 percent in June, its third straight monthly advance.
Russian military advisers have helped prepare Iraq’s air force to use five newly delivered combat planes. Government ground forces pressed on with an offensive to drive Sunni Muslim fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant from the northern Iraqi city of Tikrit.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

With Fridays rise and a flat open Sunday night I still feel a little bit optimistic that we will shortly be testing the top of the Bianca channels around the 6810 area. Initial resistance is where we currently are at 6775, so I think we will see a dip down towards the pivot area from here, which is 6753. If the bulls can defend that and gain some traction then we should get a rise back to 6775, and probably break it to test the 6804 level and the top of the Bianca channels around 6810/6815. We also have the daily Raff channels at that area so I wouldn’t be getting too bullish just yet – we have had a great bounce off the bottom of the channels in just a few sessions, (low of 6700 hit 26th June). That 6810 area might be a pretty good swing short area, as there are still jitters about and the climb off 6700 channel bottom has been quite quick.

Don’t think ti will test today (famous last words) but if 6700 breaks then we could be starting a decline to 6500 (though 6670 would be support first – bottom of the Raffs).

100 Comments

  3. Might me too early but gone long at 6766 for a scalp of 15 points with tight stop. Will see.

    1. You didn’t even have a 10 point stop, mate. Why kind of stop you used, it’s coming back now, if you had a minimal 10 point stop you would be still fine.

  15. Are you trading again Jack? I usually have a 10-20 stop on Ftse which I then bring into break even as soon as I can

    1. I didn’t trade today, had to do some stuff with computer. But nice short missed. At 11.43 could have been some entry on FTSE and at 11.55 on Dow. But I wasn’t looking at screen. But who knows if I would have taken it?

  29. Jesus just turned on was not expecting this still holding as I have not put a stop on. Hope this turns around pronto

  33. Could be the tail of a hammer forming so back up for close of play after lunch. Bloody hope so

  40. Anyone noticed that 4hr lows don’t line up, something Brocken this morning this could be a downswing to 6700 to touch bottom of chsnnel

    2. Ah, think I got your question. The members reckon more downside.

      Is that what you mean. I also feel more downside to 725.

      1. No, I think he wanted to know what Nick’s members reckon on this drop down there on their private chat. I don’t think they would be particularly happy with his chart, unless he changed it for them or guided through this unpleasant drop e.i. told them to get out.

  43. Yes still long Senu looks like that sharp drop was to build up some momentum to blast through 6775.

  45. I agree marco. I think more upside before any further drop. Moved my stop loss to break even.

    1. Marco, my short term view is that this drop is part of this leg down towards 6670-ish. This morning opened with a rally up towards 6780-6800 (strong resistance IMO). This rally got capped and also completes the 61.8% retrace ( interpreted from the daily chart). Going with the Elliot Wave theory, possibly this week to next week should complete the last wave down to 6600 area.

      This is my view currently.

  51. Thanks Ken
    Pattern on the Dow throwing me into thinking this is going to break out up

  55. With s2 at 6733 I have put a stop in at 6728. Don’t want to be holding a massive loss if this go pear shaped

  56. Dow/4 hrs. — This could fall to ≈ 16750 without affecting the strength of the current rising short-term channel. FTSE/4 hrs. is in a falling channel — last index high < 6780 today . . .

  58. being the last day of the month…with growing geopolitical tensions..plus low summer volume..i think ftse will close much lower today

  75. This Friday is Jul 04; so I suppose the wild west will be taking a break. NFP day is Thursday Jul 03 this time round. Has QE munificence produced real jobs in the real economy? Will the market have the nerve to be disappointed if it hasn’t? 😀

  76. Dimp I’m still in the red after going long this morning at 6761 but good thing is its coming back to me.

  79. So the scores on the doors at half year end……which just happens to be my birthday.

    Ytd Pnl before Costs 507 points
    Approximate Costs 142 points

    3 winning trades (1 currently unrealised), 1 losing trade – 18 points.

    Not spectacular…..since the end of Feb I have made exactly 6 points before costs! Costs quite heavy this year as paying dividends. Don’t expect to be so high 2nd half of the year.

    Overall ok….slightly below budget but not much. If I can double it in the next 6 months…..700 – 750 net points would mean I’d double my money for the year..which is the target every year.

    GLA.

    1. you trade cash ? As I think you are a position trader, using futures, which do not pay interest or dividends, shouldn’t be a better idea ?

  80. Yes I do. Swings and roundabouts maybe. Financing and Dividends included in the Futures prices but maybe there are some cost efficiencies to be made.
    CFDs suit me as need to trade full months – so futures would open me up to greater trading volume / execution risk on rolling the positions over.

    2nd half of the year I will be long for 4 months so expect to pick up dividends.

    1. You trade trough IG ? I mean Futures CFD – they not charge interest and dividends

  81. CMC.
    Thanks. Let me take a look..I didn’t think it makes much difference….but will review.

    Anyone heard from HashMash & Ray?

  82. can anyone explain me why the yankees close the markets 10 minutes past 21:00 ?

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