Good morning. Well todays the day that sees the launch of the super ISA’s with over £1billion expected to be deposited in the next 72 hours, as everyone has been waiting till today to move cash into them.
Not too bad yesterday; the bulls failed to break the 6775 level so the short ran down to target at 6753 (and a bit more in the end); the Dax 9890 level was nailed perfectly for a decent run down as well, though I closed a bit early at 9850. Unfortunately the long off the pivot failed, though we did get a bounce from lower down – 9800 Dax and 6730 FTSE. We are looking at opening pretty much on the daily pivot at 6750 today. Todays dividend is 1.27 so be aware of that.
Today remains with the 6775 resistance, though if the bulls can get above 6800 then they would be above the daily EMAs and the potential for 6900 soon increases.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional index headed for a six-year high, driven by a rally in Japanese stocks as investors weighed a survey of business sentiment.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.4 percent to 146.21 as of 12:57 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for the highest close since June 9, 2008, as nine of its 10 industry groups rose. The gauge climbed 5.6 percent in the quarter ended yesterday. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index added 1.2 percent today as the central bank’s Tankan survey showed companies raised their investment plans more than forecast even as a sales-tax increase dented sentiment.
“There are still some positive numbers we can look at in the Tankan,” Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors, told Bloomberg TV from Tokyo. “They have revised up capital expenditure growth. Japanese companies are enjoying profit growth, they are flush with money and they are deploying and spending that.”
South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent before theReserve Bank of Australia is projected to keep its key interest rate at a record low today. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.2 percent.
Democracy March
Taiwan’s Taiex index rose 0.6 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index slid 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent. India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 0.4 percent.
Markets in Hong Kong and Thailand are closed for holidays. Tens of thousands are set to march in Hong Kong today to demand full democracy on the anniversary of its return to Chinese rule.
Large Japanese companies across all industries plan to increase capital spending by 7.4 percent this fiscal year through March, more than a 0.1 percent gain they signaled three months earlier, the Bank of Japan report showed today. That beat a median 6 percent boost forecast in a survey of economists byBloomberg News. A gauge of sentiment among large manufacturers fell to a reading of 12 from 17 in March.
China Manufacturing
China’s manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 51, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today, matching the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. May’s reading was 50.8, with numbers above 50 signaling expansion.
The final reading of a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.7 in June from 49.4 in May.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.1 percent today. The stock measure was little changed yesterday, capping the longest string of quarterly gains since 1998, as a jump in pending home sales offset weaker-than-forecast manufacturing data.
Home Sales
The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes jumped 6.1 percent in May, the most in more than four years. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s business barometer fell to 62.6 in June from 65.5 in May. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey projected the index would drop to 63.
The Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index today will probably rise to 55.9 for June from 55.4 in May, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
FTSE Outlook
If 6750 holds as support today, being the daily pivot, then the bulls we be able to test 6778 again (yesterdays high), with 6804 (top of the 20 day Bianca) and then 6815 bull targets after that. IF (big if) the bulls hold above 6800 then I think we will see 6900 soon. Even though we have drifted down the bears haven’t really “grabbed the bull by the horns” (ha ha) and prices are still holding up pretty well. 6700 is still the lower line in the sand for the moment – if that were to break then we wont rise, and in fact could start a summer drop to 6500. I am favouring a bit more upside first though.
This morning I am going for the pivot holding, a break of that 30 minute channel as its the start of a new month and as such we should see some share buying. For a run to the top of the Bianca channel at 6804. I think we will stumble a bit there, but if the bulls can hold on then push to the higher target at 6815 is possible. So buy the dips really today, though the slight hiccup to this is that both the Bianca channels are around the 6800 area – 6792 for the 10 day and 6804 for the 20 day – as well as the Raff channels. So the 6804 shorting area should be good for a few if those daily channels hold.
Hi Nick. Where can I see the dividends in a month advance ?
I get them on the day, don’t think they know exactly what it will be that far in advance
And IG Help told me last week that dividend would be 1.30 not 1,27 as you say
the dividend value changes each week… depending on how the market constituents performed in the past week – there are weeks the div adjustment is as high as 14pts and sometimes it’s as little as today…. hope this helps
IG told me last week that dividend today was 1.30 nor 1.27. I asked again and they told me that it’s 1,30. So Nick lack of response, is because it’s 1.30 ?
I am not sure why Nick isn’t answering… the only other reason I can think of is due the stockbroker…..
I get the figure from Reuters –
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/30/markets-britain-stocks-exdiv-idUSL6N0PB29P20140630
Just do a google search for “reuters ftse 100 dividend” and it comes up
IG tweeted that its 1.30…. what Nick may have done is used the Reuters value (30th June)….
If you read the article very carefully, it clearly says that the value is based on their calculation… and at the current market value…(at the time of the calculation)
so that is where the slight variation comes from the 1.27 and 1.30 number…
Thank you
Short @ 73
Still holding long from 7861 from yesterday
? 🙂
well done marco for holding the long.
Dimp is that sarcasm…?
Hi ahwab, do you still have that short in dow taken @ 890?
No not at all as even I think it’s going up till 6800 at least.
Hahaha. 6761 iPhone fat fingers 🙂
What’s your target?
Marco what is your target ?
6816 for now
Yes senu took it at 16800ish on Friday. Just looking today… I hate trending days… ISM figures should bolster the indices in particular ftse to that 6800 mark today
Thanks ahwab
Senu you still short as its broken through 6775 resistance can’t see it going back under
Might retest 6775 before going north after lunch as we’re at resistance 6780 on 4hr
Yes marco, still holding 🙁
2 hours at same level, lol.
Nick, still waiting for your answer. Thanks
About the divi? Google search, and IG also post it on their twitter feed on Tuesday
thanks, IG told me is 1,30. Which IG twitter ? IG Help ? IG … ?
Long 9853 DAX
big pomo
Sooo PMS expecting DOW to hit 16900+ today :/
Hi Ahwab. Looking closely to DOW daily chart, the T-line reverse to flat from negative, yesterday. And adding that consolidation, those pasting days, with this positive open today, I guess we could see that break at 16850-16860 today
Long @ 6770 limited to 6798
Hi everyone. First post here so don’t bite haha.
I’m a newbie to the financials but it’s something I’m interested in making money from (hopefully)
I’m curious, do you think there is money to be made on the ftse closed mark?
I would have got great odds this morning for it rising so high throughout the day, chances are I could have cashed out long before this point in the day
Is it a trending day today?
Anyone else short 🙁
Closed DAX loss of 6 points. The bloody thing is in its own world. Shorted DOW @ 921
Carlos I’m assuming you are using binaries? If so don’t bother many times have I seen it blatantly manipulated at the close mark…
I’d be using fixed odds on various betting websites.
If I bet on the daily market I can set where I think the market may close.
Okay. Hit stop a b/e, meh.
Last short at 930
T-line slope positive in daily chart. Day is still a child.
I’m holding.
Position closed automatic at 6797. Hold for a week. Now we go up and break downward channel or reverse to a new low.
Let’s see that close
Closed at 6804 as it might pull back before going higher
I suspect this is going to resume the uptrend, broken at that stall at 6850-6900. But this is me influenced by this price action
Lots of resistance here. 50MA+trend linde+round number
I’ve been long most of the day today. Stops are right up in profit. Just going to see how it pans out now. I spent some days last week chasing. Decided to just let what’s going to happen, happen.
Short DAX 8990
Missed all the trades as I got caught up with work. Really annoyed. Well done guys who rode the rise.
lol. No clear signal as usual, for which side will go. Just closed at the resistance.
My gut tells me that we have a doji for tomorrow. Then after that will see…
PMS where is the doji…to me to looks like bullish engulfing.
Doji candle tomorrow. Forecasting the trade for tomorrow 😀
oh ok.
Excuse my ignorance but what is a doji?
its a candlestick pattern that occurs often at tops or bottoms, signaling indecision
close ≈ open — I think 😀 . Which gives you something approaching a cross, provided you’re using candlesticks.
lol. The yankees just pressing that button really heavy. No tomorrow for them, lol
Ah ok is Heavy Pomo today 😀
Where is the SP500 heading to….
Who knows. NO shorting in these Pomo days. I had placed sometime ago an order at 1977, but deleted
You are right. Good job you took your order out.
do not know…
Short s and p and Dow against my long term outlook. Looking for some summer profit taking.
shooting star on both SP and DOW so hopefully a good call.
Nick what do you use to workout your resistance channels? What do other folks on here use to work out their resistance areas?
Nick, that ISA’s you say, could do the trick to break this downward channel
Placed small order at 6775
Morning all. Any thoughts on today. Carrying on up or heading back the way it came?
→ 6850?
Belly my order to go short at 6816 has been executed so I am short at the moment.
6820 at S2 looks like the top when you look at 4hr
With ISA’s and this strong reverse, too much risk for me. But I have an order at 6850 with stop at 6862 (using stop- yes when I’m short, we never know)
ANd this order have a time limit, beyond that, will go out of date
I had it at 6824 but moved to 6850, because of the above. If I had not moved it would not be triggered by now for only 0,01. The max for now was 6723.9. So I’m happy with that
Good call marco. What’s the target?
Pms
Have you still got your long order at 6775 as I think we will touch this area today before heading north again
No. It not got there by early morning. But I’m thinking on that again. We did not for now hold at higher levels above the trend line and FTSE just got slightly negative…
so the downward channel still valid. Cautious with longs in top of the channel. I was just was trying to catch the earlier sentiment coming from yesterday.