6725 on the cards today? Support at 6677 pivot

Good morning. You can tell its earnings season as its all a bit of nothing really, the FTSE had a little bounce at 6670 stalled, fell back, climbed again and all within a 30 point range for the day. All very boring! Even Gold only had an 8 point range. Think most are waiting for earnings season to finish before going back into the market. Generally though the vibe is still bullish.

Facebook and Apple both beat estimates and whilst there was a bit of chop around release time, it was all quite orderly. New home sales in the US missed estimates yesterday though – real mixed economic news at the moment, some good some bad. Is all of this the calm before the storm?

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

Asian stocks fell after an unexpected drop in U.S. home sales signaled a housing recover in the world’s largest economy is running out of steam, while investors weighed better-than-estimated earnings from Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 138.5 as of 1:08 p.m. in Tokyo, with nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge falling. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.3 percent as investors assessed the outlook for corporate earnings. Of the 159 index members that have reported results this season, 54 percent have beaten analysts estimates for revenue, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Despite better-than-expected earnings from Wall Street, investors remain concerned about China’s slowdown and the sustainability of U.S. economic growth,” Vasu Menon, vice-president for wealth management at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, said by phone today. “For Asian markets to really see a big recovery, investors have to be convinced that the U.S. is on a solid recovery path.”

Chinese shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai headed for their second week of losses after a report yesterday showed a preliminary manufacturing gauge signaled persistent weakness in the world’s second-largest economy.

Relative Value
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index yesterday traded at 12.7 times estimated earnings yesterday compared with 16 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) slipped 0.2 percent yesterday, snapping a six-day rally, after disappointing earnings from AT&T Inc. and Amgen Inc. and an unexpected drop in home sales.

Commerce Department data showed that sales of new homes unexpectedly 14.5 percent plunged in March to the lowest level in eight months, reflecting a broad-based retreat that signals the industry is facing bigger challenges than just bad weather.

Apple reported after the market closed that second-quarter revenue and profit exceeded analysts’ estimates amid a surge in iPhone sales. The world’s most valuable company is set to increase its shareholder payout plan by $30 billion.

Facebook Jumps
Shares of Facebook, the world’s biggest online social network, added 3.7 percent after hours, after falling 2.7 percent during the U.S. trading day. The company said Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman will leave and reported better-than-estimated sales and profit for the first quarter.

“The markets are taking these earnings well if you look at after-hours trading for both Apple as well as Facebook. They’re higher than where they closed,” Erik Davidson, San Francisco-based deputy chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank, which oversees $170 billion, said by phone. “There have been questions with the economy stumbling along, but this could be a spark as we move further into earnings season.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE Prediction
FTSE Prediction

Not an awful lot happened yesterday really and it was a bit of a slow one. We are still not far off the top of the daily channels and with the Bianca ones showing shorter term at 6705 and 6725 then shorts around this area feel preferable. Even the 50 day is only at 6721! Todays pivot is 6677 so that could act as support for the moment, with 6702 immediate resistance, being the level we spiked and dropped from on Facebook’s results yesterday. Again we have support at 6662 after the pivot, and 6644 after that.

For today it could be another slow one (hoping that next week is going to be better for day trading the FTSE!). For today I am thinking it will be another dip and rise day, we have some jobs news out of the US at 13:30 which will have an effect on prices, forecast is 310k for initial claims, and 2735k for continuing claims.

Just below todays pivot we do have a new 30 minute channel which I expect to hold (hence the slightly wider stop on the long below, to account for that channel) so if we do dip to 6677/6666 then that could be a good bounce area. I am certainly looking for shorts at around the top of the daily channels at the 6710/6730 areas though. If the bears take early control and break the 6662 level then 6644 is the next support.

131 Comments

  4. Closed my short yesterday on the dax at 9550 just a small profit as I had been stop out early the day before…. But like a fool I am back in medium size short from 9620 am going to hold this on now until I get at least a 150 gain gl all

  7. hashmash says:
    April 24, 2014 at 9:59 am
    definetly not shorts.

    Reply
    RobGreen says:
    April 24, 2014 at 10:06 am
    What is the Principal “Indicator” – be it
    on the charts or a formula you use
    primarily to give you direction ?
    Obviously ” do not Short” comment of yours
    is based on ….???

    1. Based on my strategy robgreen.
      Also you agreed that there will be more uptrend right? so why trade the pullbacks? thats dangerous aint it.
      From painful lessons years ago ive learnt to trade the major trend n not the minor.

      1. i do agree there will be a drop but that for me is buying opportunity, no point in trading the drop, too risky.

        1. and btw that “definetly not shorts” was not an advice to others 😛
          it was me just replying to your questions if i will short or not 🙂

  8. Barclays AGM starts at 11am today could be worth a look at a possible short there depending on how the market reacts to a vote to increase bankers bonuses despite profit losses and another reduced profit warning for this quarter – One to watch

  12. Anybody have a clue about the market ?
    Do we buy or sell ?
    Not making any sense at all ?
    Any clues or advise !

      1. i mean shorting at this level is acceptable, but as long as u dont expect a significant drop (~1%)…
        if its not a significant drop then i personally find it not worth the risk to trade against a trend.

      2. think we all agree trend is up missed the morning long and with Dow approaching 16600 resistance looking for the pullback before long

    1. Closed my short too, tiny profit though but it’s not worth it, it’s not in my strategy any more. Long missed and let’s face it.

  29. So far im 70 points in profit on dow, 55 points on ftse..
    good trades, in profit this year.
    im waiting for around 6700ish to add more to longs on ftse…it RSI/STOCH looks quiet stretched out on the 30 mins as well as 4h chart, ALSO major resistance around the 6725 level, which is also the R3 today.

      1. not saying exactly 6700, it all depends, i may add back my half position at 6710.
        All i can say is im looking to add more risk on the long side.
        dont want to do it right now as the markets look a bit full.

  30. No oportunities at all. My long placed at 6650 yesterday never got trigered.
    Last week was 6625 not trigered.

    F******. Not making any mone.
    FTSE going up and no decent dip

    1. Why dont you just buy anyway
      why are you waiting for a dip
      you can never guess where the dip is to
      so just buy

  31. No buy oportunities.
    4 hourly chart never had any decent dip to 6625. Still waiting for those levels

  36. Nice drop on the ftse…NOT. Sorry frustration after seeing the DAX come off 70 points as opposed to ftses 10

  39. Rob — It’s a case of so far so good with the last FTSE chart (weekly). I haven’t needed to redraw the projection – yet. The latest bar is above LinReg 20 and the green ribbon of the indicator is developing. Momentum is still not very strong, but at least the index is moving in the ‘right’ direction.
    The 4 hr. chart below is quite supportive I think of the idea that the FTSE will progress further towards 6800.
    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps4ad2547f.png

  42. Bit late I know 🙂 , but the indicators on the FTSE daily today are all piling in to say go LONG

  43. What indicators are those Stop Unter, only asking as we are at R3 resistance after a 7 day rally
    GG

    1. Nothing important But the 5 day SMA, VWMA and EMA have all
      crossed the 30 day Things are looking UP – or not ! 🙂

  47. I think the volatile DAX is the new one to trade this year ~~ so quiet here today, hardly any1 came if you know what I mean

  49. GG

    Noticed you were short from yesterday !!

    Are you still holding them ?

    What indicator do you use to trade?

    R you long or short now ?

    1. what – you trade the dax – have you not heard
      there are fools & there are dax fools .
      only stupid fools trade the dax

        1. Let me guess….
          your favorite sandwich is
          dax pepporoni with
          jalapenos extra hot with hot chilli mustard

  57. rofl gl every1 who went long, i was short dax

    and i’m still not sure wht im doing.

    fluke though

      1. might do 6618 on the cards but I think the big drop to 6460 wont come till we get to 6760ish

  60. Moderate position on ftse now..
    expecting US to boost it up around 3-4pm
    its earning season, unemployment wasnt too bad that it would shock the markets.
    Apple and facebook results were quiet good.

    1. it will be, i think this is just due to US opening, plus a lot of main indicators were maxed out, now theres room for up movement – slowly.

  66. Heavy long 6670.
    Will add more on a dip, but expect to close later today anyway.
    Dax long shaping up nice.

  67. ftse looking very good right now, that dip was a nice buying opportunity.
    close above 6700 will confirm the uptrend strength

  70. With three failed attempts in 3days to break & hold 6700 my trend measures are starting to show a lack of momentum and I am back in no mans land. As there was no dip today until this afternoon I actually shorted at 6708 (small) and closed out at 6677. Reluctant to go long now as Ukraine gone a bit wobbly again – funny as would have bitten of your hand if it had dipped to the pivot this morning!

  71. So is everybody Long ??
    or is there anybody Short ??

    I for one am still short & will add more at 6690 & 6700 & 6710

  72. Went long too early, just recovered my losses to start of the day. It kind of put me off shorting now or trading more today.
    The possibility of shorting may be, but the long trend is hard to break and it may slowly grind up all evening. I did a misjudgement call at 14.34 I should have gone short.

  74. Nothing important 🙂 But the 5 day SMA, VWMA and EMA have all
    crossed the 30 day 🙂 Things are looking UP 🙂 – or not ! 🙂

    1. yes mate still long, more risk than yesterday, its looking good.
      i took half off at 6710 in the morning and added more back on the drop in afternoon 🙂

      1. Great – well done. I wanted to go long but refused to do so last Thursday when most of the rise happened and I was struggling to buy the dip this week.

  77. Been adding Shorts all the way up – looks like
    the run up is just about finished – so now wathching
    the market pay all the coins to me – absolutely market
    is maxed out – so only one way – DOWN !!
    Hoooooooooooorah !!

    1. What are you, Nituk in reverse – he said the market could only go up as we were in a bull market and it was due to it being 50-50. Of course it can go anywhere from here!

      1. ?? reverse ?? Not sure what you are talking about?
        I am saying this move up is looking like complete.
        So I have been shorting , and now I am expecting
        the move down to occur. Probably to 6670 or lower!

        What is your opinion ? U long ?

        1. Sorry Nituk was a guy on here a few weeks ago saying it can only go up – and your view is the opposite. Wasnt intending to cause offence. The long trend i think has flattened off but i dont think down is definite down. So I shall see where the trend takes us tomorrow. Probably more bullish than bearish still

    1. Arn’t you seeing anything negative on the market ?
      Cant you see that market is signalling heavily overbot

      I am only asking this in reference to the opposite positions that we are taking!

      1. 30 mins not overbought..
        4h coming close to overbought.
        daily – also coming close to overbought
        Im thinking 6725 the market should pause and doodle around that region for some time.
        Unless something happens which would push the market down.
        im gonna be cautiously long and buy dips, until indicator suggests different.

        1. Hi hashmash. good going. what indicator do you use for overbought/oversold and how do you decide the trend?

  80. Even though I am out looks like it getting a little bearish again…. So far this year trading has been reasonably easy this year sell the high buy the lows hope 2014 continues this way.

    1. Hi Luke,
      Following on your message above, and I’m sure you have been trading a lot longer than me so excuse my ignorance. Has the previous years been trickier to trade than now?

      Thx, Ken

  81. Hi Ken
    Well 2013 was my worse year but that was really my fault could not grasp the upward trend or buying the dips… The saying don’t fight the Feds was so true during 2013… But I said on the forum 2014 would be completely different, and the sooner QE finish and interest rates rise then the more of a level playing field we will be playing on.

    1. Wow Tan, not sure if I can stomach that kind of loss.
      I just started trading full time, still got a lot of learning and studying to do!

      Short week this week so I want a good trade tomorrow, better get some sleeps and plan my trade in my head, lol.

  84. Sell any rise tomorrow, big sell off going into the weekend. No one will want to be too exposed over the weekend with Ukraine hitting up.

  85. Now coming into the business end of the month. Looking to close my medium term long and switch to a short for the next 2 months. Frustrating though it has been as most of the action was in Feb with a net fall across Mar and Apr. However have to look at it as a whole and take it as another profitable trade. Will we get 6850 by 30th April? Doubt it but somewhere in the 6750 region will do nicely.

  87. Saw a week like this a month ago….I am seeing the Ftse struggling to get over 6700 today, Dax under pressure and both heading down to sub 6640 and 9300 respectively. GL today
    Short 6680 from Wednesday & 6707 & 6722 from yesterday looking for move through 6640
    GG

  89. Morning all. What are we thinking for today. It’s been an odd one this week because moves in the numbers have been spread across the day rather than having a clear morning and afternoon split. It’s confusing the hell out of me

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