Good morning. I hate trending days! Which is what we had yesterday, it never pulls back to support to get a good entry and it busts through resistance levels to take out the trades (or vice versa if its trending down). Anyway, the short at 6670 got stopped out and the other risky one at 85 did too, so not really ideal and no dip to get long on. On the flip side the 20 day Bianca channel top around 6698 held despite the bulls trying to break 6700. For today the level has moved to 6709, so will be watching that area. Also of note is that all 3 Bianca channels are in the 6700 area (6693,6709,6729) so we might see a bit of resistance here.
Slightly weaker Chinese PMI data overnight, printing 48.3 in April, just matching estimates, and showing continued weakness (being below 50).
Macdonalds results missed slightly yesterday, but today is to tech heavyweights – Facebook and Apple, both after the bell so will be volatile later as they have a big effect.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks erased gains after Chinese manufacturing data signaled persisting weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s inflation rose less than expected.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 138.61 as of 12:46 p.m. in Tokyo, erasing gains of as much as 0.6 percent. The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was 48.3 in April, matching the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. While that was higher than the final March figure of 48, the reading remains below the level of 50 that is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
“Asian indices are coming off their highs as Chinese manufacturing data continue to contract,” Desmond Chua, a Singapore-based strategist at CMC Markets said by phone. “It seems China’s 7.5 percent GDP growth target is too optimistic at this stage.”
China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) lost 0.5 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland stocks traded in Hong Kong declined 1.1 percent. The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7 percent.
Premier Li Keqiang last week said China isn’t considering “strong” stimulus, and reiterated that economic growth a bit higher or lower than 7.5 percent is within a reasonable range. The government yesterday lowered reserve ratios at some rural lenders.
Chinese GDP
There are “now expectations that the target of 7.5 percent Chinese GDP growth for this year might be the top end of guidance,” Tony Farnham, an economist at Patersons Securities Ltd. in Perth, said by phone. “The actual growth number may be a little below that.”
S&P Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed today. The U.S. equity gauge climbed 0.4 percent yesterday, rising for a sixth day as health-care shares surged amid a $45.7 billion bid for Allergan Inc. and earnings from companies including Netflix Inc. and Harley-Davidson Inc. topped estimates.
FTSE Outlook
Of course its results season at the moment and yesterday was the first day back after the 2 bank holidays so it was always going to be a little tricky. For today we have the pivot at 6671 and I think after making the gains yesterday the bulls will be keen to maintain that momentum. However, I do have quite major resistance at 6710 so I think they will struggle a bit there, and as mentioned above there are 3 Bianca channels nearly in play at this level, as well as the 20 day Raff at 6730ish. As such I do think it might pull back shortly. For today on both the 10 and 30 minute charts we have decent channels in play, both showing support around the 6670 area so with the pivot there I think that area is worth a long. If we don’t get the dip again then I am shorting at 6709 off the 20 day channel. Despite dipping from 6698 yesterday, its not really been that bearish which is why i think we might test the channel again. 2 tests of a resistance (or support) I will trade, generally if its tested a third time then its likely to break, so if we test that channel again tomorrow it will invalidate the bearish element and we might rise to 6780.
Long 6671
will close at 6700 and go short
Hi Marco .. Well that seems to be the concensus with yourself and Nick as well as FX trading who are long all the way to 6800 !! and buy any dips . So I’m in at 6673
GL
closed my long at 71 at even as I fear 6640 will be seen before long to 6700
ive closed as well
Marco & Hash
Any reason for closing your longs?
I was thinking of going into a long in this area!!
hey rob, it is a good area…im just gonna wait for a bit to come closer to US open and then go long.
Around the 6656 Area
Might be wrong but not happy with the setup and the 30 min chart 200ma looks like the place to go long which currently sits at 6640
Marco .. What charts do you use to get this info up .. I have basic ig still on a big learning curve . My long is still running at 6672 only minimum stake
as got burn’t thinking I knew what I was doing a while back ha ha
Marco
OK
Anybody seen DavRos ? If u r around – any opinions?
Jim – Has your charts changed in anyway?
Hash – You still Bullish ?
rob..not as bullish as i was yesterday….but let this day finish and ill reset my indicator and see.
Hi – yes I am here. Did nothing yesterday as wanted it to drop to the pivot, plus I was travelling so not giving it too much attention. Was more cautious about buying the pivot today as it was quite close to the open so didnt do it in the end. Also I have the 4hour trend down and the 1 day trend up so will probably stick on the sidelines unless we get some big movements this afternoon
went back in at 77 long now to 6700 which should tie in with news at 3pm
mmm not looking good, broke a rule and probably get punished now
Why Marco you only had it running a few minutes . You must have big stakes .
not at all, just looks very week. once it got going to 82 thought we wee off just goes to show why i am stopped trading afernoons
You are probably right Marco . This one always seems to follow the DOW and thats dropping . I did a short on DAX and got lucky same trend as well
Short 15 @ 6680. Rally looks tired, gold picking up and E/$ & £/$ coming off. Stop at 6715
GG
Anybody joining me on the long Train ?
Think we have set the bottom !
you sure
6656 is an absolute bottom on monthly pivots
so yes want to make sure i am in a long
data out at 3
ok gonna rely on my strategy solely…
first time a decent size trade on DOW long 98…
stop 16450
We broke the pivot and another stop S1 is 16454. So it’s better wait for now, it may drop there. It doesn’t look long at all on 10 min. Feels like temporary pull back is happening.
As I didn’t trade lately because of the half term I took it a bit easy and did research.
Looking at today’s EMA – it was resistance all day so I would be possibly looking for shorts today. That nice candle at 14.30 would give a decent scalp on Dow and it would be still going.
and it would be terminated by now either b/e or with little profit.
im holding dow n ftse – this isnt a short term trade.
6642 coming AIMHO
The feeling when your order was 4 points away, short position at 6700. Goddammit.
Bought at 6670 for the retest 🙂
6656 should hold – Put my stop at 6650
should see a good move back to the highs of yesterday
should break 6700 by end of week
i got my stop at 6640
long ftse 6665
so my trades soo far
Long FTSE 6665 SL 6640
Long Dow 16498 SL 16450
Both moderate risk
break even 🙂
Looking at the daily chart, and I’m fairly new to all this, but if we break 6692 today, am I right in thinking that we’re looking at an incredibly strong week testing 6862?
Looks like we have a move down to the lows before we can take out the highs of yesterday.
mainly as a result of the US
Moved my stop as a result to 6640- ( 10 points lower then set )
Weekly pivot at 5647 so want to give it a bit
Last couple of trading days have been very volatile, makes today seem boring… Holding long till tomorrow, gl all.
closed break even not happy with this
were long at what level ?
Any one short ftse???
Dow wanting to move ahead verry little difference on lines on 1 hr so triping on resistance when it starta to move it will hoping up
still long dow and ftse
ralling now…good stuff
Are you all long ftse??? May I know wat level will ftse up to for tomorrow??? 6720???
dont know what level…
ill just followthe market…im looking for a close above 6700 this week, tomorrow looks like an up day, friday pretty sure will be up day with the confidence report in US
What’s today saying guys?
Marco
I have R1 at 6704 went short
I suppose you have R2 at 6710 ?
Y u go short!!!?
Im still long i got this market as bull…
You are correct in your assumption that the market is going higher.
But there is a short term move down to the 6680 area before the
bulls can take this higher. Preety big resistance at 6730
Ye i got 67
26 as strong resistance
What positions are you holding ?
& how do you intend to play – Today
& Tommorow ? regarding your positions.
i am also trying to line up for a good swing trade
Any ideas of strategy would be welcomed
I will close long at 6720 half of it.
N if it drops to 6710 ill add back half n more at 6700.
my open right now is from 6665
So can I assume you are expecting very shallow retracements ?
So you are not going into any shorts at all ?
Nicks chart is up for today – will go to there now
definetly not shorts.
What is the Principal “Indicator” – be it
on the charts or a formula you use
primarily to give you direction ?
Obviously ” do not Short” comment of yours
is based on ….???