6685 resistance today

Good morning. Rather bullish in the end yesterday. The initial short i took at 6620 got stopped out, but a few were gained off the higher resistance area at 6649. However, the bulls still continued their rally and we saw a high of 6670. Interestingly, the S&P nearly reached that 1875 resistance area, from where I think it will struggle to push on. I mentioned a gold buy at 1301 yesterday and that has worked well, gold now sitting at 1316. With gold rising, the S&P nearly at a decent longer term resistance level, the FTSE likely to encounter resistance at 6685ish today, then it will be the bears time again soon I reckon.

Yesterdays release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes eased concern about the timing of future interest-rate rises.

“These minutes are calming for the markets,” Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial LLC, which manages about $414 billion, said by phone fromBoston. “It was clearly stated that the projections overstated the likely shift in rates. A slower pace of interest rates seems more likely here than from the statements.”

Several Fed policy makers said a rise in their median projection for the main interest rate exaggerated the likely speed of tightening, according to minutes of their March 18-19 meeting released today.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks pared gains and Australia’s dollar trimmed its advance as Chinese trade figures unexpectedly fell, tempering optimism after the Federal Reserve eased concern about when U.S. rates will rise. Indonesian equities tumbled after elections failed to show a clear winner.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent by 1:03 p.m. in Tokyo, after adding as much as 0.9 percent before China’s data release. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. The Aussie, which touched a four-month high after a surge in employment, pared its gain to 0.2 percent. South Korea’s won extended a more-than five-year high. Nickel climbed 1 percent, a ninth straight rise, while copper and tin erased gains. The Jakarta Composite Index plunged 3.2 percent and the rupiah weakened.

Chinese exports fell 6.6 percent in March, extending the steepest drop since 2009 in February and missing the estimate for a 4.8 percent gain from a Bloomberg survey of economists. Fed minutes played down forecasts for rates to increase faster than previously projected. Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped after the country added more jobs than estimated in March, while South Korea kept its key rates unchanged and boosted its economic growth outlook.

“It’s surprising and disappointing to see that softness in China’s March trade numbers,” said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It’s a definite setback for what has been a very positive mood in global markets, and particularly in Asian currencies. The Aussie seemed to be on track for a run at 95 U.S. cents, but the China trade number was a definite setback.”

Chinese Imports
China’s imports plunged 11.3 percent last month down from growth of 10.1 percent in February and below the survey forecast for a 3.9 percent expansion. China’s export data have been distorted by inflated numbers in early 2013, when some companies filed fake invoices to disguise capital inflows.

“The data is fueling concerns about the emerging market economies,” said Ayako Sera, a Tokyo-based market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd., which manages the equivalent of $474 billion. “March should be free from distortion from Lunar New Year, and the fact that imports dropped this much implies huge impact on the global economy.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a bit of resistance at 6655 initially however I think that will break and we will see stronger resistance at 6685ish. Therefore I am preferring a short there to target the pivot for today at 6626, and possibly lower. If that pivot were to break then lower targets are 6593 and 6583 both being the bottom of the Bianca channels as you can see on the chart below. Should that 6685 level break then the bulls will most likely be aiming for 6710 (around the top of both the Bianca channels) and 6730 (top of the 10 day Raff). Higher resistance are 6770 and 6800 – but i think the S&P will struggle at 1875ish so the chase of the FTSE getting that high are slim, but never say never!

We pretty much had a trending day yesterday with minimal pull backs off the resistance levels, so i think today will see a bit of consolidation as it is prone to do after a run up (or down).

94 Comments

  1. OK so we are approaching the pivot somewhat faster than i expected after the solid start – has there been any news to trigger this fall that anyone has heard of ?

  2. Reuters news in the last hour saying separatists in Ukraine asking Russia for help – wonder if that has been the trigger?

    btw great call Nickon today’s movements – can i take out your service at any time in the month? will probably try it out for a month initially but will likely wait till after easter as wont have too much time till then

  6. Short at 6681&6644, see if it tests 6585. Hoping 6626 will turn resistance for this afternoon
    GG

  7. DavRo’s

    Looking at the charts – the 240 m Anywhere from here to 6606
    seems a great buy. Ultimate support is at 6572 as seen on the
    day chart.

    1. Bought ftse – Expecting the days highs to be broken.
      The Ftse & S&P/Dow Still looking very bullish

  10. IG says:
    “The FTSE 100 is on the front foot for a second consecutive day, supported by a relief rally following yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes and good news in the retail sector.
    1 hour ago”
    IG must have a sense of humour!

  14. Larry Levin

    What are your reasons – why todays High cannot be broken ?

    To me the market is so well placed on the charts to take out
    the highs of today

    Rob

    1. because we fell 67 pts from there.

      but it looks like its heading your way 🙂

      good luck to you Rob Green

    2. If the market was based on charts the we all would be very rich and probably somewhere on the Bahamas drinking margarita….lol

  16. Always expect the unexpected in trading 🙂
    Get your head round that one…
    So if you don’t expect it to take out todays highs, it will!!

  17. Exactly Rob.. Hence why trading is so difficult and most guys lose…it’s a psychological battle.

    1. I think the most impt thing to overcome this is
      to be able to analyse the market well. If you are
      relying on somebody’s comments or prediction to
      place your trade – Then yes you will always be
      expecting the unexpected to happen

    2. Saying that – there are a great number of traders here
      who are fantastic at analysing the market

  19. Closed out at 6658 as rally doesn’t seem to want to hold. Be delighted if it will go back to the pivot now!

      1. No said i would go in at the pivot if it got there (thought that is what you were going to do so got a bit confused) – but only half of my limit hence cautious. Will only go in bigger after another 24 hours if the trend holds – and then only on a good dip

        1. DavRos

          You going back in ?
          Trend is still holding well & US
          is still trending !
          I am expecting High to break

          1. Am waiting till IS open+30 minutes. Am already well up today so reluctant to buy in on a break out – much prefer a bounce off pivot or even the 6555 area. Am in no hurry at the moment

        2. oh sorry my bad yeh – im confused 🙂
          i said i wud but then its me being stupid because i know we range bound and indicator saying bull..i didnt want to be in the same position as yesterday and be stuck in a loss.
          im staying out till we braek this stupid range bound behaviour.
          Maybe i should run my old strategy which was for range bound trading 🙂 (but dont know how well it will perform now).

  21. adam

    A lot of traders use only their charts to trade and
    they are very successful at it.
    They say – every news – every trade – every everything
    in in the bars. I tend to agree with them. Though I
    have difficulties always to read them correctly

    1. what works is a hedge type strategy long/short

      or longer term, low cost passive index fund and age appropriate % of bonds

  22. gonna be brave and trade something other than ftse today and buy wall street at 16377 if we reach

  23. ftse struggling to pass the cluster of resistance around 6665, also hitting the SAR resistance.

      1. one thing to notice is, despite all the vol, ftse is etching upwards, theres enough room on 30mins, 4h, daily in the RSI and stoch for a much higher move.
        Together combined with my system (also showing reversal), ftse can reach higher and break 6700…
        However theres a major resistance at 6725ish

    2. Because of all i have described, this is my decision to go long on ftse now.
      I have bought 2x minimum risk at 6664 (on the R1).
      I believe the numbers from US will be enough to break the cluster of resistances at 6665.
      As i write this the SAR is broken as well – good sign

      1. I went short too early and had a tiny loss which now recovered on short of course. Useless day. No movement at all. I knew it was going to be some sort of short at US, but it took it time.

        1. I came within 3 points of total disaster at 6670 (my stop was 6673). Only 13 points more to drop – come on!

          1. That is sick – only 9 points more, I wanted it to drop – but it’s shot up again instead.

    1. Don’t tell me you just sold at the point it touched 6636? I might buy at 6620-6625 if it gets there at the end of day dip that often comes about. My indicator back into “no mans land” again so goodness knows where it is going to go next. Not going to take any big positions

      1. no no i always look for a clear break.
        i bought at 6636..
        but if i see it struggling to get above there then ill close ..at a LOSS again lol

        1. my system still same…reversing out of bear ..heading to bull market…
          i think we will see 6630ish one more time n then head up

  30. anyone with a bright idea what the f…… was FTSE doing today or after the official close??? does someone knows something we don’t???…lol…..I forgot how fare and equal the market is….lol

  32. Wow wasnt expecting it to get back to pivot. Tempted to add back in but not sure it isn’t going to drop further. Hash you must be cursing this again

    1. sure am, managed to close dow on like a -2 point loss – literally nothin…
      Are u holding any position in ftse?
      I did mention if we dont close above 6666 then bull trend is weak lool.

      2. Na – just had my dinner so missed it – can’t believe we dropped below 6600 again. Market just crazy at moment. Will go small long if I can convince myself the sell off is done for the day

        1. tbh today for me wasnt aday to pull out my hair, despite my long from 6663ish LOL..
          good thing was it was 2x my minimum risk and its not earth shattering..
          tbh tomorrow – if we see 6630ish i think thats now a resistance and will short…assuming everything else looks good.

  35. Still have my short from 6685 this morning will leave this now and see how it looks tomorrow

  36. And I bet not many got this move. Nobody expected that?
    I am gutted as I had short 16421 which I closed just above 16400 just to make b/e for the day.

  37. I thought I was safe going long when it went back over 6600 this evening! Crazy markets. Not too big a position so no major damage done and I’ll likely hold overnight now as must get some bounce at some point (I hope)

  38. First proper good day this year, caught 150 pips on the DOW with decent gains on ftse. Closed all shorts though I think we might see some more downside to break 16000

  39. Dow jones hit major resistance on Friday 16646
    2000 top 11750+2448 points = 14198
    2007 top 14198 +2448=16646

    I’m guessing we are about to have a big correction or start of another crash

  41. Just a shakedown before reporting season kicks off with US banks next week. Profit taking from Fridays top, expect maybe a few more sessions of volatility before we head north for another test of S&P at 1900. We are close to the top of this market so it has to go down for traders to make money this year. Chop, chop, up, down… Short the rally’s or buy the dips, think its safer to short the rally’s as QE winds down and interest rates wind up

  42. Hashmash, I think your indicator failed you today. I thought you were extremely bearish recently and was surprised seeing that you are very bullish.
    As I see it now what happened was a pure fall after retrace 61.8% on Dow.
    I wanted a short but that hoovering around 16450ish confused me as I didn’t expect Double top but just a rise to 16421 as 61.8% of morning fall. But it shoot up to Double top and didn’t seem to give in for a long time. I had 1st short but as I took it a bit early at 16411 and had a loss on it of 13 points just before US open, so I closed my second short too early. I hate when I do it. Ended up with b/e over day and frustration. I hate when I could have made lots of money but I didn’t.
    However I wasn’t that lucky a couple of weeks ago.
    It’s one of those days.

    1. jack two..
      u sir are wrong..
      my indicator has failed me for many weeks now and not just today!!
      The reason for that is because trend indicators totally cock up in a range bound market.
      ofcourse right now my indicator showing STRONG BEARS.
      and i HOPE that this large move was to break the range bound high vol behaviour.
      if market is to continue this way then i will be shorting tomorrow.

      1. btw me saying u are wrong is in a sarcastic tone lol…
        Thats why im frustrated these days as a range bound market cocks me up

  44. with dow pushing btm out of bucket yesterday eve16207 depends if it gets back in there again if it did the ftse chances greatly increased of reaching 6666 later on today GL

  45. Morning chaps – Haven’t had the time to read through all the posts..

    Gone Short at 6564 (Break of support) Tgt 6547 area – close here for a retaracement back to 6565.

    Helpful printing off a chart just to see how this is stepping down.

  48. There’s a few stocks going ex-dividend on Tuesday. Does anyone know roughly what the adjustment may be? Just so I can bear it in mind if I go short Mon or Tues and hold it. Thanks

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