6560 resistance, then 6620 again, 6536 support

Good morning. Well not as many as wanted from the 6515 long yesterday and turned into a bit of a choppy day. FTSE certainly isn’t making it easy latter part of this week. There is still the potential for the 6560 level, though the Bianca channel has dropped a bit lower and both 10 and 20 day are today showing support at 6444. News flow was fairly upbeat yesterday, with most beating expectations.

Im watching 6560 for resistance initially, with support at 6536 (daily pivot initially).

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with a regional index of shares outside Japan rebounding from the biggest loss yesterday since August.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index advanced 0.7 percent to 452.10 as of 2 p.m. in Hong Kong, paring this week’s slide to 0.4 percent. The measure fell 1.7 percent yesterday, taking its loss this year to 4.1 percent as data from exports to industrial output showed signs of a slowdown in China and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated U.S. interest rates could rise as soon as six months after the end of the central bank’s bond-buying program. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics’ gauge of Chinese manufacturing is due March 24.

“The markets have a lot to digest with an unofficial U.S. rate rise potentially mid next year,” Tim Schroeders, a Melbourne-based money manager who helps oversee $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd., said by phone. “You don’t want to stick your neck out too far. We’re not overly cautious, but respectful that the dynamics are changing. The focus is going to come back to China on Monday.”

China Manufacturing
The HSBC/Markit China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index will come in at 48.7 for this month from 48.5 in February, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Readings below 50 signal a contraction.

The China Beige Book survey, published by New York-based CBB International, signaled the nation’s economy slowed this quarter, with industries including retail and mining showing weaker revenue growth. Loans through non-traditional channels became more expensive, it said.

Yellen this week said the quantitative-easing program used to stimulate the U.S. economy would end this fall should the central bank continue to taper in measured steps. There will be “considerable time” between the end of the stimulus and the first rate increase, meaning “six months or that type of thing,” she said.

U.S. Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equities gauge yesterday gained 0.6 percent, rebounding from its first decline in three days following Yellen’s comments.

Quarterly Fed forecasts showed more officials predicting that the benchmark interest rate, now close to zero, will rise to at least 1 percent by the end of 2015 and 2.25 percent a year later. Money market rates showed traders see a 62 percent chance of an rate increase by June 2015, up from 57 percent two days ago.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the U.S. economic outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.5 percent in February, the biggest gain since November, data yesterday showed.

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE Outlook
Well that was quite a recovery in the afternoon on the FTSE yesterday, having dipped just below 6500. To be honest it looked like the bears were gaining the upper hand with that break of 6515 and we were going to see the 6465 area mentioned as a decent bounce point. Alas not, and it took off upwards. We are looking at opening around 6545 today, but have the daily pivot at 6536 so I expect initial support there.

Resistance wise, the bulls will need to break 6560 today, to then target the upper Bianca channel areas at 6594 and 6608. So, I am thinking an initial dip from around 6560 to 6536 then rise to 6600.

151 Comments

  1. yea that 6560 does look tough though…tested 2-3 times already within just over an hour of open.
    Im agreeing with nicks view today we will see a drop down,
    not entirely sure about the up arrow.

    1. hashmash says:
      March 21, 2014 at 8:33 am
      Correction
      1.I havent longed..ive been on sidelines with bearish mentality for quiet long

      hashmash says:
      March 21, 2014 at 8:44 am
      No pms in still short added more at 6560.. not adding more till 6530 breaks on 30 min candle n closes

      So are you Short or on Sidelines ?

  2. U sir are a dickhead.. that was a reply to u saying its not good to long or short too quickly.

    Ice had bearish mentality n was on sidelines.. now i have short position.
    Now im busy so cant be brothered w8th ur shit.
    Go do ur 50:50 ratio maths

    1. now thinking about it u actually a dickhead, u cut half of my first post which u copied/pasted

  3. Hashmash

    Your reply to Nit V is not logical for it too have some form of being logic Nit V would need to have some kind of common sense…. Therefore your your thinking is not logical lol

  4. hashmash

    hashmash says:
    March 21, 2014 at 9:22 am
    yea that 6560 does look tough though…tested 2-3 times already within just over an hour of open.
    Im agreeing with nicks view today we will see a drop down,
    not entirely sure about the up arrow

    try reading this statement to yourself

    1. 6560 – tested – tough – your basis = resistance
    Basis = Resistance – will hold = 50 : 50
    2. you hold nicks view – going down ( but not up )
    Basis = Resistance – will hold = 50 : 50
    3. ( so like me – who says – UP – because of all the reasons I have given )
    your bias = Down

    But on all account – 6560 – is a resistance till it breaks 50 : 50

    So my friend – sub-consciously – you are preety well agreeing with
    my 50 : 50 Logic.

  6. Nitup im too dumb for ur logic so excuse me.
    If 6560 breaks thrn im closing my short at loss. N re enter at another leve if my bearish mentality holds.

    1. Hashmash

      you seem to be agreeing with me more & more with statement you make

      please examine what you just said

      If 6560 breaks thrn im closing my short at loss. N re enter at another leve if my bearish mentality holds

  8. Lol, lovin all this. For once it’s not me…
    Wonder what Luan has to say about all this, he normally does nt leave this alone…

  9. As for me, yes still long. Held through the dip, now expecting no more dips and hoping for that 6800.

    What do you think Luan?

  10. Lol i like drama .. at times
    N its friday im usually a **** on fr8days due to my adhd im super hyper all the time n i let it out on fridays!

    1. Lol,

      Just one small bit of sentiment from the forum. Normally when everyone is shouting short, I long. And you are one of my indicators, you are normally good with your analysis, but sometimes a week or so out.

      Nothing bad, just saying that I do get what you are saying.

      My issue is that I started slightly early, but then again I make sure that I can ride out a 300 point + move in the opposite direction.

      Worked out week with the dip as I managed to add more after the Fed meeting.

      Nit V – apologies if I sound like an arse. I try not to be, but I am finding it hard to get the 50:50 scenario. Is there somewhere I can go and have a look at this please.

      Thanks

  11. But tge market does look strong…shorts getting slowly n slowly raped.
    But my strategy geting more bearish.. i might reduce a bit of risk wen markets drop.

    1. Hashmash

      you seem to be agreeing with me more & more with statement you make

      please examine what you just said

      If 6560 breaks thrn im closing my short at loss. N re enter at another leve if my bearish mentality holds

      —————————
      stay calm

  15. Havies

    my friend – you do not need to learn the 50 : 50
    as you are already a practitioner

    but i do agree with you ….” My issue is that I started slightly early…”

    cheers

  16. I closed my long cant see dow breaking 16400 and dax 9400 I see those as sell triggers today and the current levels the FTSE should be way higher in relation to the other two but its not so a bash on DOW and DAX would cause the FTSE to fall so I’m on the fence for the rest of the day seeing if I made a error or win but then profit is profit and ive been burnt not taking profits so many times.,

  17. long this morning to 66 and now short
    will go long this afternoon, looks like we are in for a run up

  19. Closed short at heavy loss. Should have kept a stop at BE yesterday.
    Now heavy long.
    Think we hit the bottom yesterday.

  20. Having a right scrap at 66 resistance might be a barrier for further down side. Short moved to break even at 70

  21. I’d say i entered short a bit early…but i got some more room to take a loss.
    im still short, and will stay short for sometime.

    1. GG

      What makes you such a bear ?

      You know my bullish scenerio – so just very curious !

      The charts – esp Dow / S&P are just shouting – Higher !!

  29. ok heres my analysis.
    -30 minute interval, strong resistance roughly around 6560ish area.
    – Stoc RSI oversold – these indicators arent the main ones for my directional bet, however does help me with my execution – WHICH WAS NOT GOOD AT ALL IN THIS TRADE I MADE.
    -We are hovering slight just above the down channel (30 mins interval)
    -6530 needs to break for more downside
    -Heavy resistance around 6590-6600
    -MACD starting to curve off.
    -ETORO 97% buyers, majority are wrong otherwise we wud all be rich.
    -IGmarkets – 70% long …same as above.

    Economy
    -consumer price index EU – worse than expected (but better than last month).
    -EU consumer price index YoY – Worse than last year.
    -DE ZEW survery came out shit
    -US consumer price index came out shit.
    -Yes housing market numbers came out better, but not by too much, slow recovery in housing.
    -claimant count change UK – that again slightly better, but still good.
    -Fed meeting – showed a slight bearish tone to the equities.
    -Gold up just under 12% since start of year..money moving away from emerging markets and equities and into safe haven
    -continuing jobless claims came out worse, despite intial jobless claims dropping…meaning more people are claiming benefits.
    -existing homesales in US slowing down as shown yesterday.#

    For Today
    -Cad expecting worse consumer price index/core YoY.
    -EU consumer confidence still in negative.

    -Politics
    Ukraine crisis not over, putin still standing strong with his opinion.
    Sanctions arent helping alot.

    My indicator.
    Growing stronger on the bear side.

    About my trade
    -I do think i got hasty and entered a bit short..however thats the game, ive shorted at small 6515 small 6540 large 6560.

    Expectation
    -Will see ATLEAST 6500. Especially with china manufacturing slowing down and a report to be released on weekend.

    1. Hashmash, he is never going to understand this m8!!!…its to logical for him and do not talk politics, that’s will make him even more confuse…….lol

  30. FTSE moves so slow. Why is that =?
    I used to trade DAX and DOW.

    SO many people talking about this FTSE moves. But the moves are so little, lol

  33. FTSE found a base.
    But should I stay with this position long ? Moves are so small. Thought at this time it was already in 6600 area at least.

  36. Shorted dax too good time to jump on cant seem to break the 9350 so little bump and that’s down my gut feeling anyways

  38. its one of those times again where ftse is out of correlation with US markets as well as DAX!.
    And Muan – the time to start worrying is wen market has swings n then suddenly u observe small moves, because when it moves it will be f’ing volatile – volatility clustering theory doesnt work here lol.
    Also if u check vix

    1. This is my point above the link between the three is odd the FTSE past would be way higher at the levels of dow and dax but its not so a downward swing on dow and dax will kill the ftse into 400’s really don’t know why its stalling though ??

    2. Do not understand, what you saying.
      Can you explain in detail ?
      FTSE has volatile moves, like no liquidity ?

  39. i got a couple more contracts i have left before ive taken full risk on this position – im keeping them as my ace cards and will place them in if the market starts to drop.

  43. Closed dax short for 30 points I think it will go lower but US opening can reverse those 30 points fast.

  48. Hashmash, can understand your reasoning for going short, i was short myself till this morning.
    But lets be fair even shit data can push markets up, ( e.g. Jp morgan, bank of america results a couple of months ago).
    I was thinking short as markets sold on ukraine and because of shit forward guidance by the federal reserve.

  49. im sticking to my indicator.
    increase in bearishness by 2.85% since morning.
    Its more bearish than when ftse was doodling around 6500 level…which to me is a good indication.
    It’s 4.16% away from indicating that ftse has become a “FULL” bear market n shows that it will drop a significant amount, maybe it will be a quick drop to shake the market, maybe it will be over a couple days, that i cannot tell…ofcourse its not guaranteed but the probability of it dropping is much higher than it not doing so.

      2. if ur new here, then u probably confused with what im saying…
        I am talking about my own indicator which i base my directional bets on…

          1. ah sorry its not a graphical, it just spits out a number lol..a percentage that shows how likely it believes market will go up or down..when i start seeing around 65-70% probability of it moving in 1 direction then i start trading in that direction.
            I have found it has a nice negative correlation to what majority are doing lol.

  56. bearishness in my indicator still there, we can see it struggle at 6560s, i closed a small position at 6540 to reshort at 6560 to get a better average.
    unless ftse climbs to say around 6600 and closes there, im gonna close my shorts and take watever loss..
    if we close roughly around 6560 then im holding over weekend.

    1. INTRIGUED with that indicator of yours…lol

      FTSE is making a base here, but moves are very slow, lol.
      If FTSE goes below 6500 and starts to close there, then the ascending trend line starting from a couple years ago, will be broken and the longs will need to start looking to other price, which could lead to a bear market in FTSE.
      I do not see bear market in FTSE. This is not Japan, lol

    1. Good sentiment… I need to buy DOW in a better price next week.
      The Bull market in US I think has reopened with rate hikes new cycle

      1. Every new cycle of rate hikes lead to a better economy and bull market.
        The opposite is also true.

  58. ok, not gonna lie, i will be shitting my pants with this position over weekend…
    i’ll see how the close goes, if its bad i will cut 50% off

      1. yea now that my indicator is retraced a bit…i shud only look at it after market closes but cant help it loool

        1. had a chance to get out at BE…but im still confident with holding..just gotta control the shitting pants part.

        2. I never really hold over night or weekends last weekend I held didn’t factor in the interest charge!! school boy error by me 🙁

  59. Guys, from now one, buy the deep.
    Refresh bull market open in US. New rate hike cycle = improved economy

    1. First, markets do not like and could lead to same extend correction, but then the way is up.
      We saw some intraday correction. Very little reaction indeed, maybe because US markets are still with QE junkies.
      This has been a odd bull market, different from the others because of QE’s and also the first years 2009… had big upside moves more because of the sharp decline…

      1. I just wanna step in in DOW again. Was so cofonrtable with my position and my trail stop was hit with rate hike FOMC.
        Now I need to find another price

  61. Looking to FTSE because it’s the best deep price market I found. It’s very cheap compared with DAX and US.
    This should be a good place to buy the deep… what are your feelings about UK and FTSE compared with US and Europe ?

    1. Really not clear. markets are driven by politics. Just wanted to be a day trader only.. 🙂

  62. FTSE has a lot related to China, because of the miners and so on.
    Maybe this China thing have more impact in UK FTSE…Is why I see that sudden drop from the top when China concerns appear. The other markets made some correction, but nothing important. I was in DOW and was not upset with the move. Quick it bounce. FTSE gone to the lows and stay there, lol

  63. Monday another report from CHINA. If this upsets markets. FTSE may go to bear market, because again of the miners, lol.
    DAX and US will not for sure.

  64. Hard to read where the market wants to go in the medium term. It neither wants to really break and stay above 6600 nor break below 6500. So happy to remain on the sidelines especially with the weekend approach.

    1. yeah, lol. 6600-6500 range. So predictable this FTSE. It almost drives me to bet a lot of money for a quick income

  65. I would be scared to hold medium term unless you have a real decent entry point for me that would have to be sub 500’s the few times it been there, it only takes the Russia situation to flare up and they will all tank again.

  66. Having touched 6500 yesterday, FTSE is now ≈70 points up on that level – fair but unspectacular. US determinants looking robust enough right now, so likely to support further progress in the short term. E.g., S&P 500/1 hr running well in an ascending ϵ-channel from 16 February.

  67. Well – as expected – we are where we started.
    A whole-hearted rejection of a sell off.
    & yes – I will be holding my positions
    6500 / 6520 / 6540 & 6560 long

    1. lol. Guys FTSE is looking even better today, but honestly, very humble FTSE with that close.
      If this FTSE have speed moves as HASH said, then careful with those shorts.
      MA200 has been improving day after day, daily and weekly. The shorter time frames not, but this is been a constant move since June last year.
      Pennant in Weekly chart. FTSE price is in the bottom of it.
      Ascending long term trending line, not violated and inverted hammed in weekly chart.

  69. lol. when I think in an hundred point move on DOW I will enter for 50% of that…50 points.
    FTSE is another game. Yesterday I was looking for 100 point move on FTSE and so 50%, was 50 point. Got 24, a quarter, lol. So this is a different game

    1. Muan

      Be careful – people here do not like 50 & esp 50 with a % attatched
      to it.

      not sure about the 24 or the 100 though

      1. It’s my own strategy. Look at price you think will go and then take out 50%. This will assure you a profit and not waiting for the safe heaven

  70. If China data this weekend was not released, I would bought FTSE futures today.
    So I will wait till Monday

  72. Keeping my short 50@6570 over the weekend and just added 25@6520. B/E stop @ 6555. Have a good weekend all, especially Nitup
    GG

  75. Looking at daily FTSE rejected 6600 and heading straight to 6400 easy. Question will be whether it bounces up then of carets on down..!!
    Have a good weekend all.
    Senu my long order at 6530 from earlier which just missed being picked up on the way up got picked up on the way down this evening really annoyed with myself for forgetting to kill it…!!

  76. lol FTSE stop and bouncing in 6515, DOW remain dropping . If this wasn’t Friday I would had bought FTSE.
    6500 area have a lot of support. Only a crash from Ukraine or China worse data, could see that break.
    A lot of buyers there. They do not want to take FTSE for a bear market.

  79. No Senu
    I had a 10 point stop on it which got taken out tin the fall after close.
    Having looked at daily I am convinced we are going to head to 6400 next week

  81. well lool i didnt follow the markets, went out with drinks.
    until someone mentioned oh S&P dropped..n i was like what u talking about it was up like 0.6% and he goes when did u check last 4pm or something? its dropping now alot..
    i checked on my phone and yup ftse was down to around 6520s lool.
    im still holding my short, didnt add any extra lots on the way down.
    China report im expecting bad and ftse to drop below 6500 on monday!

    1. All depends on China. Things in Crimea nothing there important.
      If data from China have no surprises to the downside with a data within forecast, then markets could resume.
      But with that DOW shooting star, it will be tricky.
      For me, would love to catch bargains in DOW.
      FTSE is still undecided.
      But I will bet DOW next week, again.

      AH… do not be fooled by Friday’s expiration. That’s why that shooting star in DOW is tricky

  82. Wouldn’t like to disagree with you there Hash your play looks like it should play/pay out

  83. Russia storming Crimea airbases isn’t going to help markets, expecting gold to raise and indices to drop next week. Ftse to drop below 6500, probably, touch 6400?

  85. With you Jim think we may have missed the down move on the ftse sure it may go to sub 6400 but shorting from 6517 too risk reward for me is not worth would rather wait till a lower level to long or a higher level too short…. Let’s see what next week brings higher or lower don’t bother me it’s about entry level.

  87. friday evening ftse broke through btm resistanceof 50 day headed for 6475 but came back up above resistance again might mean up or could go to 6475 for bounce again being btm 50 day good luck all…………..

  88. Muan.. i dont know if u read news or not..but ukraine situation is getting worse day by day.
    2 airports seized.
    US intelligence shows all major cities surrounded by russian troops with airsupport n logustic..preparing for something.
    Ftse down .80% after market close on friday…US also lost alot of the upside it made on friday.

    1. yes… indeed. The future is unknown, so I’m looking to see the developing of all, including China.
      If FTSE lose 6500 for more than 2 days, then it reenter a new stage, which is unknown also to me.

  89. We seem to be getting squeezed into a narrower range with the FTSE. Still on sidelines – need meaningful break above 6560 or drop below 6500 for me to consider entering. Just going to wait and go do something else….

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