6515 support, then 6461, resistance 6583

Good morning. Nice rise for the long from 6580 yesterday after the initial dip though it took a while to break 6600, before stalling and then dropping with the budget and Yellen later in the day. Insurers were particularly badly hit (probably a buy on L&G (185ish) and Aviva (at these levels). I hold Aviva from 330. The main news yesterday from a UK perspective was of course the budget, as expected good for SME’s but also savers this time around. The FED hinted that interest rates may rise from the middle of 2015, which sent the market into a bit of a tailspin – bonkers really as they are going to rise at some point so no point in getting too het up about it. But the market loves an over reaction!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong poised to enter a so-called bear market, after the Federal Reserve signaled it may raise U.S. interest rates from the middle of next year.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.7 percent to 132.42 as of 12:50 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for the lowest close since Feb. 6. About five shares dropped for each that rose on the gauge. The Fed said yesterday its key rate, currently near zero, would be 1 percent by the end of 2015 and 2.25 percent a year later.

“We’re going to see more follow-through selling in Asia,” Toby Lawson, head of futures, options and cash equities trading for Asia Pacific at Newedge Group SA in Sydney, said by phone. “It’s significant that the Fed fund rate will rise to 1 percent by the end of 2015. We could see capital outflows from emerging markets back into the U.S., especially given residual concerns about China’s economy slowing.”

Japan’s Topix index dropped 1.5 percent after rising by as much as 0.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.9 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.2 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.4 percent, while Taiwan’s Taiex index slid 1.2 percent.

Bear Market
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.2 percent, bringing losses from a Dec. 2 high to near the 20 percent threshold that some investors consider a bear market. The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.2 percent.

US Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3 percent today after the U.S. benchmark index fell 0.6 percent yesterday. The central bank’s bond-buying program, which was reduced by another $10 billion to a $55 billion monthly rate, will be wound down by year-end with a rate increase to follow within six months, Chair Janet Yellen indicated.

Stimulus Outlook
Yellen said the quantitative-easing program used to stimulate the U.S. economy would end this fall should the central bank continue to taper in measured steps. There will be “considerable time” between the end of the stimulus and the first rate increase, meaning “six months or that type of thing,” she said.

Most Federal Open Market Committee participants reiterated their view that rates will be held at current levels until 2015. The median forecast for rates among 16 Fed officials rose from December, when they estimated the rate at the end of next year at 0.75 percent, and 1.75 percent for the end of 2016. Officials said they will look at a wide range of data in determining when to boost borrowing costs, dropping a pledge tying interest rates to a 6.5 percent unemployment rate.

Hawkish Fed
“The FOMC was more hawkish,” said Anthony Valeri, a market strategist with LPL Financial Corp. in San Diego, which oversees $350 billion. “The expectation for higher rates got pushed forward and the bond market was not priced for that.”

The U.S. and Europe are moving to increase sanctions on Russia after President Vladimir Putin signed an accord setting in motion Crimea’s accession to Russian territory. With visa bans and asset freezes on Russian officials failing to sway Putin, European Union leaders meet today to consider their next move.

Ukraine ordered the removal of its military from the majority Russian-speaking Crimea and said it will strengthen its deployments on the country’s border with Russia.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Well that rise from 6580 was short lived yesterday, and in fact it turned quite bearish for the latter part of the session. As it was likely to be fairly choppy/unpredictable with the budget and Fed, I opted to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer opportunities, well done those that traded it successfully in the trading room. I was a bit hesitant yesterday being too bullish as you know as we were at the top of the Raffs, seems that wasn’t misplaced after all.

Today’s pivot is 6583 so that is likely to be resistance to any rises today and we are better off shorting rallies again for the moment, and I think we are looking at hitting the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6461 before too long, probably today is the bears really go for it. However, if the bulls fight back and break the pivot then we could be back at yesterday high of 6624. Personally I am thinking a short at the pivot for a run to 6461 is the better play. We have S3 at 6515 today so with a weak overnight we may see a bounce from there initially, then further declines.

154 Comments

  1. I guess we have to accommodate for all sorts of people in this world, otherwise it would be boring 🙂

    Gl every one

    Reply
    Luan says:
    March 20, 2014 at 9:43 am
    Its a good and apt statement you make of yourself

    Havies says:
    March 17, 2014 at 2:04 pm
    Yup,

    Long FTSE, Dow, Dax and s&p.

    Had to slightly re-evaluate my entries, but all good. Will target 6800 on FTSE before I will consider another swing 😉

    Gl mate

  3. we are going down. Do not see any rise. Failing the upside swing. US confirmed yesterday, what FTSE was already doing one day earlier

  6. Adam

    I did say 6540
    but sometimes – a small slippage amount must be factored in
    the 6520 gave me an even better oppurtunity to buy for this rally
    many people get fooled by the price action. so you must look
    at the market. is it a Bull or a Bear market. Definately
    everybody knows the answer to that

      1. What is your basis for this profound statement. how can a market move 300 pips down in a bull market. if you said 300 up – i can understand that

        1. FTSE failed prior yesterday the upswing, from last uptrend (6500-6800).
          So 6500-6200 is the swing now and weekly support at 6200

    2. and now we are almost 40 down….you still haven’t answered why do you only have two position long opened where you were banging on people to go long for days??!! why didn’t you buy yesterday or the day before??!! I look to me that your analysis are based on last year stock market movements and you think the market will behave the same way……yah, good luck with that….lol

  7. When I see at least 15% correction I will think entering long in this markets.
    WE need to flush all the QE extra from last year.

  8. 20% correction is the sweet point.
    Rate hikes+end taper = flush QE last year 25%

    If we flush 50% of the 25%, then we may think reenter long

  14. The problem is the price action. It has a lot of artificial sentiment. And it’s very difficult to have a flash crash or something. Dow is what I’m looking and is the smoking gun. SP500 is what making this down move so slow, if SP500 had a bit of weakness, than other markets would crash

  16. Through 6440 in June Futures, could get ugly, no real support in Futures before 6344-6360 level, ie 6400 in the cash
    GG

  20. As i mentioned several days ago 6600 was top for ftse.. we will be in a limbo here..6360-6400 is the lowest i see

  21. We need a decent pullback in US this year. Is what I’m looking for. End of this QE junkies. This will take FTSE and DAX down.

    DOW is already showing that.

  22. Unfortunately agree with Hashmash, I thought a push through 6497 would indicate a clear break for the lows of the year but it hasn’t happened yet and I feel once again the bulls are looking from support from the US markets. A move below 1850 in the s&p could be the catalyst for the move I’m expecting
    GG

    1. take a chill pill lol already down 1% for the day, takes time as long as u got a position on ftse short then sit back but do keep an eye on it just incase it reverses early but im holding and holding, there will be times for a limbo – usuall i say this is wen my strategy is strong bear/bull and RSI/Stoch is showing reversal, it doesnt reverse but just limbos a bit to create room in the indicators for a further push

  23. I am afraid I see this as the start of a very big down turn that will last till end of year just my thoughts ties in with the 1929 chart

  24. Agree with nitup, to buy the dips.
    But surely also worth shorting first!
    I can see 6400 definitely. The interest rate guidance yesterday killed any chance of a move higher.

  26. Big call on the 1929 chart Marco, that would be a big correction and times are different. Don’t get me wrong I am the biggest Bear here and don’t see why 6000 is unthinkable! We had all the QE in the world last year and the ftse still had two big sell offs below 6000. Now the QE pump is being slowly switched off and talk of higher int rates are in the air I feel moves lower are realistic. I also think when FM talk of welcoming lower stock prices so they can reenter the market is a ST indication of where we are going
    GG

  27. Last night I saw the movie The Bank Job, about the princess sex photos hidden in a Banks vault. The biggest heist of all time. Great movie.

  29. Looks like we will be going over here in the next hour.

    Also who here predicted the crash in 2007….?? you only know when it hits you

  30. Btw nick your 6515 long looked brilliant at 6526, looked like a reversal, but the way the ftse just dropped after was crazy.
    Should drop further on the us open.
    Looking to short dax at these levels.
    Havies, you still holding?

  34. on monday n tuesday ftse had bull run at afternoon session..lets see if they repeat that today..long from 6505

    1. My take is that until we decisively break south of 6400 the bull run is intact – just look at the daily curve for the last 18 months to see that – certain commentators starting talking 1929 on the last dip in January and 3 weeks later we were back in the 6800s. So at present likely to be a dip before the next rise. Am ready to go in long in a big way when it turns but I have no idea at what point it will happen or when the bull run will end!

  37. Know what I’m thinking ? euro/$ down to 1.30. Everyone advocated this move at the start of the year and got burnt, now after last nights comments from Yellen, I can see that being a quick downside move
    GG

  43. Until I can find a good reason for the Dow going up 100 points, I still think we’re looking at 6500 for the close rather than 6600! Feels like one of those moves where we will all scratch our heads in an hour and wonder why we didn’t sell into it.
    GG

  45. Also short from this morning at 6515.
    Should have shorted one lot at 6530s.
    The joys of hindsight…

  46. Guys, stop shorting, let the market fall.. I am short @ lower level , waiting for my entry point to exit 🙁

    1. Yes i am, and will be for sometime untill i see my strategy reverse.
      im even adding more at 6540 before today close.
      This till drop, its one of those markets which is making more room for a drop.
      its been dropping quiet a lot recently and cannot continue to do such big movements soo quickly.

    1. It does because those morons over the pond will not sale till something really big hits them and the clones in city just follow them, they haven’t got opinion about anything they just follow….. sorry, they just know how much the white staff cost and where to get it fast…lol

    1. For most of the time I couldnt trade on IG during that glitch but there was a moment where it looked like I could when it was 6495. Seems to have corrected now. Bizarre

  57. very annoying – i was in such a ridiculous amount of profit loool
    now back in a small loss (relative the the profit)

  58. LOL WHAT WAS THAT ?? I WAS NOT LOOKING AT IT… I WAS THINKING IN SHORTING AT 6555 AND WHEN I LOOK. 6555 AND THEN 6490 … UAUUAUAU
    THIS FOOTSIE HAS GOOG BARGAINS.

    2ND TIME.

    WANNA TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL TIME THIS FTSE.

    NO OTHER MARKET DOES THAT

  59. I cant see this on any other platform then IG!!…I think they have some explaining to do and fast!!

  60. I had a short with a limit on it that should have triggered on that drop, but hardly surprisingly it didn’t. 🙁 I’ve tweeted IG help to ask what happened, but no reply yet. Maybe they’re still stunned too…

  63. Reply from IG: “We just changed the front month contract for our FTSE markets. No trades executed as not a valid price.”

    1. because you have 3 small candles going up is a signal for buy??wow…then look just bit to the left…It look like it was forming forming to go up yesterday too and what did the market do today?? dropped…there is nothing stronger in any market then sentiment and I think FTSE doesn’t have a bullish sentiment for now…

  66. Technicians are telling me 1874 is a big sell level in the s+p according to their EW count, any views
    GG

  67. I think I will try a long here in FTSE, below the close of today.
    WHy go against the price.
    If they want only to buy, then I need to join them.
    I will buy a small position in Futures contract and wait a while to see how develops.
    FTSE is the worst performer.
    So it’s a good buy the deep here in FTSE, instead of US and DAX

  68. as ftse created a hammer looking candle today i think we are on for a rise tomorrow..i hope up to 6640

  69. Will wait for the US close and then will buy if US makes a good close in these levels, with no sudden moves in last hour.

      1. I was tempting to go short in FTSE, really…. 2x today and could not click the button. The US markets make me chills

  71. any body intrested in shorting dow to push it through 30 day resistance to top of 20 day at 16400 no thanks

  73. DOW slope MA50 turning positive again, since March 7th.
    I suspect DOW is finally to break the highs.

  74. Bought FTSE Futures contract 6478 +-6530 Cash.
    Double bottom in FTSE 4 hourly chart with positive divergence

  77. I have closed my shorts out, and now medium term long from 6540. Looking for couple hundred points, ganna hold. US dictates everything and looks bullish right now. Will hold for couple weeks/months

  82. am not sure whether to feel sorry for you guys who shorted.
    been telling you – we are in a bull market and all the problems are nearly over
    putin – ukraine – fed – budget
    its now time to go long. you just think irrationally. 1929 scenerio and all this
    incorrect historical basis
    yes i added at 6500 = 10 again
    so now 3 lots – 6500 / 6520 / 6540
    i am still waiting 6560 to trigger – no doubt it will today.

    2. No need to feel sorry (though i recommend not getting too cocky on this board) – as I ran a short down nearly 100 points from when you said to go long which is now closed. Sitting on the sidelines to see where the trend takes us next – could easily be down as much as up

  83. GG

    as you asked where i buy my positions – to keep a record of my trades
    i am informing you that i further bought at 6500
    so 3 positions at 6500 6520 & 6540
    I have order waiting at 6560 & 80 as i said yesterday
    also at 6600 – my main order

  84. anyway my view still short, should see it dropping after UK public sector borrowing release.
    and as for Nitup – ukraine issue is not over.

  85. I am afraid but when people have it in their mind that the
    market is going down – it will.
    people have said it will go to 6300 and lower.
    this is a incorrect analysis.
    Dow & S&P are all within 1% of their all time highs
    and when people are building up 1929 scenerios
    you should examine your basis of thinking
    please everybody realise we are in a bull market
    just hoping it will go down is not the correct way of analysing
    everybody rethink your basis

  86. DavR0s

    you were lucky. luck plays a role for a lot of traders
    but logic analysis always wins.

    2. now i realize why seniors were “dickheads” to junior traders…
      I think u would be the biggest clown in the industry if u were working.
      They come in the place thinking they say big shot and then get a trade or 2 write to even boost their confidence.
      TILL the day they lose shit loads and think it was badluck…but that “Badluck” happens more often than their “big shot” days.

    3. Eh?! I followed the trend – no luck just playing percentages which in my book will ultimately win. I do feel I have a lot to learn but you will get badly burnt if you always go long just cos we are in a bull market which seems to be your plan. But each to their own. As I say I wouldn’t get arrogant as this is a relatively constructive board without too much gloating

  88. hashmash

    I must have sold to you,
    my 6560 long got triggered.
    thank you for giving it to me.
    just a small joke.

  89. Lool i rember that guy who came on here on a non farm day and bragged how he made 250k in a minute becus of the spike.
    Man u have to give it to that guy for balls of steel, if hes telling the truth.

  90. Nitup.. do u see resistance line around 6560s on 30 min interval?
    Why long there.. is that logical to long on resistance lines without candles closing?

  91. Hashmash & DavROs

    Perhaps a small lesson may bring your thinking to see what I am saying

    The market can go Up or Down
    Statistically odds are 50 : 50
    Without any additional factors
    Now by doing what you both are doing – going long & short
    throughout the day / week – you add another factor – generally
    reducing the 50 : 50 ratio
    what you are hoping – & this is your basis – HOPING – that by
    doing this – Long & Short many times – in day / week – you will
    increase your odds.
    just think about it !!

    1. Nitup – i am going to stop replying to you as I have better things to focus my time and energy on – and am certainly not going to be taking lessons off you! You have no idea what my strategy is. So I wish you well….

  92. Still monitoring Nitup, I hope for you this isn’t the day you’re buying back 6500 as I still think that’s where we are heading

  93. Correction
    1.I havent longed..ive been on sidelines with bearish mentality for quiet long.

    2.What u said above was total bullshit.

    1. Hashmash

      Let me try again

      1. UP : Down = 50 : 50
      2. By BUYING all time – your odds are 50%
      3. market will go higher – 50 % of time
      4. so that 50% portion becomes – 100%

      If you still do not understand – then please
      ” google – Basic Statistics “

  94. Dav no talk lol
    I like arguing with ppl like nitup.
    Until i have things to do.
    Right now im taking a shit

    1. Well if it goes up then we will be in long too and if it goes down then we will be short and Nitup will get badly burnt. I won’t gloat

  95. I think you have misunderstood me – I am not telling you
    or advising anything regarding your style
    I am just explaining my style. You dont have to take a blind
    bit of notice – till it works.
    You are welcome to tell us regarding your style – we are here
    to learn – That is all its about

    1. Hashmash DavRos

      All i have heard you say is
      ” I think it will go down…perhaps to 6340 ”
      we can all think – but please explain your basis – Than is all I am saying
      we are all trying to hear other traders interpretation of the market
      & in the process question our individual analysis
      but by just saying ” I THINK it will go down ” well not much use really

  97. No pms in still short added more at 6560.. not adding more till 6530 breaks on 30 min candle n closes

  98. Ahhhaha its hilarious how nitup is explaning basic stats.
    Ok so nitup markets are flat every year? According to u they go up 50% down 50%?
    so technically its better to buy n sell as much as u can to profit (according tl u dav strategy) .. becus ur strategy of just buying will simply leave u winning 50% n losing 50% ?

      1. DavRos

        Did you know – Statistically – Very cleaver people
        who have Degrees are less successful at trading

        I think it is probably because – they use all their
        learnt information to analyse a situation which
        only has even odds

        Read this in a book – so pls do not quote me

    2. hashmash

      BULL = UP = LONG
      50% – becomes 100%

      Simple Basic Stats. Yes

      Bull Market = Long = 6500 then 6520 6540 & 6560

      Is this hard to understand.

  99. Look nitup we might be wrong on this trade n u being right.
    I follow my strategy u follow urs…
    Ita just funny how uve turned into a superstar over a couple hours becus we said markets will drop n it spiked n thats what u predicted but were weak enough to be swayed away from ur own decision lol.

  100. Nitup lol keep clowning urself.. no one with any sense will claim to understand how uve tried to make it look simple.. 50% up 50% down. So net 0?

  101. Yup people who go uni are dumb nitup…
    thats why u didjt go uni or have a job. Becus ur super smart init?
    According to ur stats knowledge.. given tgat i told u i was taking a shit…whats the probability that ive finished?
    Lmao dont say 50:50 cus i can either go up or down..

  102. Nitup

    1 I employ traders for Global Trading houses and we rarely look at people who don’t have Degrees and usually only Masters with them

    2 you are very vocal when markets go up & very quiet on the way down

    Which leads me to believe

    3 you don’t have any positions on

    2. GG

      Before your request – I did not state one of my trades.

      GG says:
      March 20, 2014 at 9:34 am
      Nitup, how many have you bought so far – so I can monitor the progress

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